A-Rod Aftermath
Lost in the shuffle of Alex Rodriguez‘s opt-out media frenzy – the Yankees should be able to snag some nice draft picks for him. They’ll undoubtedly offer him arbitration, and he’ll decline that offer. If that does happen and he’s signed by the Cubs, Tigers, Mets, Angels, or Red Sox, the Yankees will get that team’s first-round pick. The Giants and Dodgers’ first round picks are protected however.
Joel Sherman names the Angels, Dodgers, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox, and Tigers as teams to watch in this bidding war. Kat O’Brien adds the White Sox to the mix, while Peter Abraham adds the Giants. My best guess is the Halos. Another thought – does it have to be Lowell or A-Rod for Boston? Couldn’t it be both if they believe Rodriguez can play a capable shortstop?
Odds and Ends: Abreu, Beckett, Helton, Schilling
Friday afternoon rumor tidbits…
- The Indians will probably let Kenny Lofton leave while exercising Joe Borowski’s $4MM option. No big surprise there.
- Nor is it a surprise that the Yankees are heavily leaning towards exercising Bobby Abreu‘s $16MM option.
- From the what might’ve been department: Red Sox owner John Henry was in favor of signing A.J. Burnett instead of trading for Josh Beckett. One could make a solid argument that the Red Sox would be better off if Henry had gotten his wish. Beckett and Julio Lugo combined for 8.6 wins at $14MM this year while Burnett and Hanley Ramirez combined for 14.8 wins at $12.4MM (according to WARP).
- From that same department – Tom Gage notes that the Tigers once nearly acquired Todd Helton for Tony Clark. There were many Clark rumors from 1999-2001 before the Red Sox claimed him off waivers. I heard Buck and McCarver talking recently about how Helton is not a product of his home park. For the record Helton has hit .368/.474/.668 at home in his career and .304/.409/.515 on the road. He probably belongs in the Hall but it would be a lot tighter if his career OPS was .924 instead of 1.014.
- Nick Cafardo makes his case for the Red Sox to re-sign Curt Schilling.
- A scouting look at Hiroki Kuroda, plus other Japanese pitchers who may come over (hat tip to MetsBlog). Jason Churchill estimates a three-year deal for Kuroda at $9-11MM per.
- How would you like to face a 125 mph fastball?
Epstein “Sure” Lowell Will Be Re-Signed
Here’s what Theo Epstein had to say on Mike Lowell last night:
(Re-signing Lowell is) a priority for the offseason, and I’m sure we’ll be able to get something done. We have a desire to keep him here a long time. He’s a core member of the organization. It’s just not the time to talk about that.
Does a long time mean three years? It’s hard to see Lowell accepting a deal for two. Lowell didn’t want to talk about the situation either last night, understandably. But his reaction to Epstein’s comments was reserved.
If the Red Sox win the World Series, perhaps the Red Sox will be "forced" to go beyond what they consider a reasonable number of years, as happened with Jason Varitek.
Coco Crisp For Kelly Johnson?
UPDATE: O’Brien spoke to "a person who should know" with the Braves and this one’s not happening. I think we were all skeptical from the start.
There’s a rumor making the rounds: the Red Sox may offer Coco Crisp to the Braves for Kelly Johnson. Right now this is fourth-hand information – Buster Olney allegedly said it on a radio show on Wednesday, and one Braves fan heard the report and posted a comment to David O’Brien’s AJC blog. O’Brien hadn’t heard the rumor himself, but found it plausible.
This is an interesting proposal to examine, whether or not it’s legitimate. Let’s try to figure out how each team would view this.
Johnson turns 26 in February. He was a shortstop in the early minors, but had become a left fielder for the Braves when he came up in ’05. That’s an interesting conversion. It was likely tied to his elbow, on which he had arthroscopic surgery in early 2006. The elbow was still barking in May of that year, leading to Tommy John surgery. After non-tendering Marcus Giles last winter, the Braves had Johnson learn second base and used him there in ’07. Johnson responded with a breakout .276/.375/.457 line (16 HR, 79 walks in 147 games). Trading Johnson might be reason to keep Edgar Renteria. Seems more sensible to trade Renteria.
Even if the Red Sox aren’t sure where to use Johnson or even whether to keep him, this would be a nice acquisition. Could his surgically repaired elbow handle demanding throwing positions like third base or even shortstop? Does he have the range for short and would the Sox move Julio Lugo to the bench? Or maybe Dustin Pedroia could move back to short for ’08 and Johnson would remain at second base. Bottom line – Johnson is cheap, good, and could improve the infield somehow.
The Braves won’t try Jeff Francouer in center next year; they’re highly likely to acquire someone to fill Andruw’s void. Crisp is less risky than most of the free agents out there given the modest $11MM committed to him for 2008-09. His offense doesn’t add much, while his defense this year has received accolades. Still, the Braves would be adding more than $4MM in salary for ’08 with this swap. We aren’t sure yet how much the Braves plan to increase their $84MM payroll. Adding Tom Glavine would have to cost around $10MM alone, and the Braves want another starter beyond him.
Nats Considering Coco Crisp?
The Washington Post has a couple paragraphs on the possiblity of the Nationals trading for Coco Crisp. Crisp may be deemed expendable by Theo Epstein this winter because of the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury.
Crisp hit .268/.330/.382 this year; the solid power from his Cleveland days has not returned. We can write ’06 off due to wrist injuries but Crisp’s offense this year was disappointing. The 28 year-old at least played some fine center field defense. He earns $4.75MM in ’08, $5.75MM in ’09, and has an $8MM option with a $500K buyout for ’10. The reasonable contract and possibility for a resurgence might catch Jim Bowden’s eye. The Nats went with Nook Logan, Ryan Church, and others this year and received a .255/.321/.382 line. Just tossing a name out there – if Nick Johnson is healthy, is that a possible match for Boston?
The Nationals have been linked to the big-name free agent CFs as well – Andruw Jones, Aaron Rowand, and Torii Hunter.
Red Sox Rumors
The Boston Globe’s Gordon Edes has some mild hot stove chatter today.
- Tim Wakefield‘s $4MM option is likely to be exercised. There was some speculation a week ago that it could be declined, but no one really believed it. It’s still a bargain.
- Julian Tavarez‘s $3.85MM option is a borderline call, and Edes seems to think it will be declined.
- Nothing new with Mike Lowell – he wants to return, but the door’s open for the Phillies or Yankees if the Red Sox won’t pony up enough years.
- Most folks expect Curt Schilling to leave. But if he’s still up for one year and $13MM the Sox should do it.
- Mike Timlin will pitch again but it might be elsewhere. Timlin hasn’t been with another club since ’02, when he pitched for the Cardinals and Phillies.
- Matt Clement will depart. If his tryouts and MRIs come up clean and he can hit 90 mph there will definitely be teams offering him incentivized contracts. Here’s one I missed from a few weeks ago: the Padres may make a play for him. Tom Krasovic also throws Mark Prior into the mix for the Friars in that article. Back in December of ’04, Clement talked with the Angels, Dodgers, Diamondbacks, White Sox, Indians, and Blue Jays before signing with Boston.
Red Sox To Stop At Two Years For Lowell
The Boston Globe’s Jackie MacMullan spoke to a Red Sox source who said the team would "balk at offering Mike Lowell anything more than a two-year deal." Lowell is expected to get $10-12MM annually.
Since Lowell might be able to get four years guaranteed on the open market, it would be a large sacrifice to accept just two. For what it’s worth, Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA system expects Lowell to be worth $28.4MM over the next four years, $23MM over the next three, and $17.3MM over the 2008-09 period. However PECOTA did project Lowell to hit .273/.333/.441 this year while he actually hit .324/.378/.501.
Lowell’s awful 2005 looks like an aberration, but it still seems to scare the Red Sox. I imagine they’d guarantee three years if Lowell had been decent in ’05.
Mariano Rivera To Test The Market
As you know, Joe Torre’s rejection of the Yankees’ weak offer may influence the thinking of Mariano Rivera. The Journal News’ Peter Abraham has more on that angle:
Just spoke to somebody I know who is tight with Mariano Rivera. He said that Mo is more determined than ever to test the market after the developments of today. Mo’s comment: “The Yankees are one of 30 teams now.”
Hank Steinbrenner has insisted Joba Chamberlain spend 2008 as a starter, heightening the Yankees’ need to make the best offer to Rivera. Ultimately I think they will. The guess from Jon Heyman was two years, $26MM plus an option year for 2010 for Rivera. He could probably get three years guaranteed on the open market.
Rivera doesn’t think he could bear to put on a Red Sox uniform, so maybe the Yankees are one of 29 teams. The Phillies plan to get in the mix for Rivera for sure.
Odds and Ends: Wakefield, Guillen, Lowell
Some random rumorage not quite worthy of individual posts…
- Jeff Goldberg of the Hartford Courant speculates that Tim Wakefield could be making his final start for Boston tonight. With Wakefield, the Red Sox possess one of the most lopsided contracts in baseball history. They have a perpetual $4MM club option with him, one that never goes away until they decline it. But $4MM is nothing to the Sox, and Wakefield was certainly worth that much in ’07. They’ll exercise it.
- The Mariners were once close to an extension for Jose Guillen, but currently it’s on the backburner. Even if the team exercises his $9MM option, Guillen can and probably will void it. He’s going to want at least three years, $30MM. The Mariners could get by without him.
- Mike Lowell has more Philly connections than I realized. The Phils definitely seem like his second choice if the Red Sox let him go. I think the Phillies should just sign Mike Lamb and spend the excess money on pitching.
- Neal Huntington’s first move: a waiver claim of Kevin Thompson. It’s over now.
- Joel Pineiro gets a $500K signing bonus, $5MM in ’08, and $7.5MM in ’09. Originally he wanted to test the market, but he appreciated the Cardinals giving him a chance.
- John Schuerholz found Scott Boras’ suggestions obnoxious and idiotic. Also, Steve Phillips comments on the A-Rod/Mets situation back in 2000.
Keith Foulke To Return
Last winter, Keith Foulke signed with the Tribe for one year and $5MM. It was supposed to be a battle of the questionable closers with Joe Borowski. Instead, Foulke "retired" with an elbow issue while JoBo went on to post what was easily the worst 40 save season in baseball history. Antonio Alfonseca‘s 2000 is a distant second (he had a 4.24 ERA).
Foulke had a simple elbow procedure in September, and will start throwing in November. He’s coming back for the 2008 season, with the Red Sox first on his list. The Indians and D’Backs may also get special consideration. We first heard about Foulke’s comeback plans back in May. In my opinion, the changeup artist would be best served in the NL. He hasn’t seen the league except for a brief stint as a starter for the Giants ten years ago.
Fortunately here at MLBTR we have a fairly comprehensive archive of last winter’s hot stove dealings. The D’Backs and perhaps four other clubs were in on him. D-Rays Bay says Tampa Bay was one of them.