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Cubs/Red Sox/Mariners Trade Possible

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A reliable source told me today about a three-way deal that is "imminent."  It’s always risky to throw around "imminent," but I’m just quoting him here.

Here’s the scenario:

BOS gives: Bronson Arroyo, Tony Graffanino, PTBNL

BOS gets: Jeremy Reed, Will Ohman

CHC gives: Corey Patterson, Ohman

CHC gets: Raul Ibanez, Graffanino, cash

SEA gives: Reed, Ibanez, cash

SEA gets: Arroyo, Patterson, PTBNL

Let’s evaluate.  There’s no doubt the Cubs would be making out like bandits in this trade.  Corey Patterson is useless to them, even as a fourth outfielder.  28 year-old lefty Ohman tossed a solid 43 innings this year, and seems recovered from his January 2002 Tommy John surgery.

But Chicago’s bounty seems to outweigh the former phenom and useful southpaw.  Ibanez is on the hook for just $4.25MM in 2006, and the 33 year-old is probably good for a .290/.350/.460 line in 2006.  He played 55 games in left field for the Mariners in 2005.  I’ve projected him at .288 with 21 HR, 84 RBI, 89 runs, and 8 steals for 2006.  Graffanino could probably chip in with some decent on-base skills from 2B or a utility role.

My Arroyo projection has him leading the Red Sox in wins with 16.  Arroyo does a good job limiting his baserunners and should have an ERA under 4.  I don’t think Safeco would have a major effect on his numbers.  Reed should continue to improve all facets of his game in ’06, and would be a nice pickup for the Red Sox.

There may be a holdup in the deal because the Red Sox want to trade before Graffanino and Arroyo hit arbitration, and the Cubs want to wait.  The word is that Mariners GM Bill Bavasi is strangely infatuated with Corey Patterson. If that’s the case, Hendry should strike while the iron is hot.  I don’t have any information on where Matt Murton would find himself if the proposed trade takes place, but he wouldn’t have a starting gig for the Cubs.

Agreement For Manny Trade?

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The latest Manny rumor making the rounds comes courtesy of commenter Wild Bill from the Orioles Hangout Forum.  As far as Bill’s track record, I can direct you to a thread over at Sons of Sam Horn.  According to the poster:

"There are three reputed "insiders" [at Orioles Hangout] and all three seem to agree that the trade has been agreed upon in principal but that Manny’s request for an extension will likely cause the deal to fall through. As for their validity, it seems each does have a source either within the Orioles organization or one who is once removed from someone inside.

That said, I don’t believe any of them have access to Mike Flanigan or any direct decision maker. The only thing that makes me feel this could be accurate is the fact that all three agree. Generally, they tend to have slightly different takes on the goings on inside the Orioles’ FO."

Here’s the main point of Wild Bill’s post:

"The word is the Tejada-Ramirez/Clement trade has been agreed to in principle by the two teams blocked only at this time with last minute complications caused by Manny."

Using 2005 WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player) values, the net gain for the Red Sox would be -3.6 wins.  Meaning that in a vacuum, this trade makes the team worse.  Of course, the move would free up significant salary for the Sox (I haven’t heard whether money would change hands) so the team would probably make up the difference in value somewhere else.

Manny Ramirez is on the hook for $58MM over the next three seasons.  Matt Clement will make $19MM over the next two seasons.  Miguel Tejada is owed $48MM over the next four seasons.  For the 2006 season only, this trade would free up $18.5MM for the Red Sox.

I’ll supply more updates on this trade possibility as I hear them. 

New Manny Scenario Discussed?

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A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed.  It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.

Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez

TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo

Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister

Wow.  I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source.  Let’s see if it passes the reality test.

The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny.  That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman.  Plus, Manny is still a superstar.  Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling.  Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired.  The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002.  I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.

How about Tampa Bay’s side of things?  First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together.  As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return?  The demand is certainly there.  Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?).  Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006.  The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield.  Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base.  They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games.  Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.

The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter.  Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion.  Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming.  So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox.  The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.       

Wild Rumor From Gotham Baseball

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Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources."  Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers.  Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:

"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."

Let’s stop right there.  My opinion on each step of this possible deal:

Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me.  Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006.  That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short.  I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage.  I still feel that they’ll want more.

So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz.  This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me.  The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior.  Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that.  Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM.  That doesn’t add much value for the O’s.  Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling."  Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.

To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect.  That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.

To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore.  Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.

UPDATE:  Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen.  He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way." 

Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:

"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed.  No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."

I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth.  The A’s hold all the cards with Zito.  They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July.  I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades.  The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner.  The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out.  Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.

A.J. Burnett/Curt Schilling Projections

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The latest from RotoAuthority: my Curt Schilling projection.  Also on the site is my A.J. Burnett projection from a couple of days ago.  Be sure to drop by and let me know what you think.

Also, I’ll be on WGN Radio 720 tonight at 7:30pm central time.  It’ll be cool to chat baseball with David Kaplan on Sports Central.  Be sure to tune in!

Adam Eaton On The Block

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ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick spoke to Adam Eaton last week, and his article definitely gives the vibe that the righthander won’t be staying in San Diego past 2006. 

Eaton’s opinion of the Padres’ three-year, $17MM offer?

"It was almost like a slap in the face compared to what I’m capable of doing."

That’s an amusing statement.  Here’s my translation:

"I’ve pitched almost 800 Major League innings and have posted a medicore 4.35 ERA for my career.  I’ve never pitched more than 200 innings or had an ERA below 4 in a season, in a pitcher’s ballpark to boot.  But since I’m under 30 and don’t completely suck, I’m worth at least $10MM per season.  I’m insulted that you’ve only offered me $5MM per season."

Given that impressive resume, it’s no surprise teams are beating down the door to acquire Eaton.  No, really, they are.  These are the interested parties, according to Crasnick:

Rangers
Nationals
Tigers
Orioles
Red Sox
Cubs

Thoughts on a few of these suitors:

The Rangers have been shaky about including both Gerald Laird and Adrian Gonzalez to get a deal done, and they reportedly backed out of such a deal earlier this month.  Eaton has been below average in home run prevention throughout his career, so I’m not sure he’s the best fit for Ameriquest.  But Texas can’t count on Vicente Padilla to fill the void left by Kenny Rogers, so it’s likely they’ll bring another starter in this winter.

If Eaton could remain healthy, he’d give Washington solid starting pitching depth.  1-5, it’d go John Patterson, Livan Hernandez, Eaton, Brian Lawrence, and Ryan Drese.  Top prospect Mike Hinckley will need some time before he’s ready to step in.  A swap of Ryan Church for Eaton sounds like fair value to me, and Church would be a nice fit in left field for the Pads.

I’m not sure that the Cubs have what Padres GM Kevin Towers would want for Eaton.  Plus, the point of Hendry adding another starter was seemingly to add a durable pitcher to the mix in the event that Kerry Wood can’t make 30 starts.  Eaton is anything but durable.   

Astros Or Retirement For Clemens

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Plenty of buzz going around about Roger Clemens entertaining new teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rangers for the 2006 season.  According to my Astros source, however, Clemens is again choosing between the Astros and retirement.

Houston Chronicle writer Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Brad Ausmus is very close to signing a two-year pact with the Astros.  It’s well known that Clemens does not want to pitch for any other catcher, and the Red Sox tried in vain to lure Ausmus out East.  Boston was never really an option for Ausmus, who wants to be a starter and considered only San Diego as an alternative.

According to my Astros source, look for Clemens to return to Houston and start taking advantage of some of his previously negotiated perks.  In 2006, Clemens would skip more road trips to stay with his family.  Look for Roger to pull a few strings and try to get the Astros to promote his son Koby to the Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A club located in Texas).  Third baseman Koby has played just nine games at Class A with the Tri City ValleyCats in New York.  In addition, Roger has a ten-year agreement to work for the Astros after retirement to work with the club’s young players.

After pitching in the World Baseball Classic, expect Clemens to take a few months off and return to the Astros around mid-June.  His salary will certainly be less than $18MM, and the team will hopefully have acquired the improved offensive players Clemens desires.   

Brad Lidge Could Be Available

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I first heard the Astros might consider trading Brad Lidge a few days ago, when Dayn Perry tossed it out there.  Perry mentioned that Lidge could go to Atlanta, and here’s what I said:

"Could the Braves somehow emerge with the best closer on the market?  One who no one even knew was on the market?  I wouldn’t put it past Schuerholz.  I can’t see Houston doing the deal for anything less than catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia or shortstop Elvis Andrus."

I still feel that the Braves are the frontrunner.  Lidge doesn’t become a free agent until after the 2008 season, so it’s not like the Astros would make this deal to snag whatever they could get before Lidge departs for the big bucks.  Whatever team gets Lidge gets him for three solid years and will pay a below-market salary for it.

Given that, it makes sense that the Astros would look to improve their team now and not in two years.  So Saltalamacchia and Andrus might not be the right kind of players for this deal.  Major League ready lefty starter Chuck James might be a start in a Lidge deal.  Anthony Lerew would also fit the bill.  The dealbreaker, though, might be Marcus Giles.  Giles will be a free agent after 2007, and the Astros can’t expect to run Craig Biggio out there forever.

John Lopez wrote about trading Lidge in an article for the Houston Chronicle yesterday.  Lopez’s logic against the Orioles and Reds makes sense.  Those teams are not a top-flight closer away from competing.  But Lopez also dimisses the Boston Red Sox simply because Manny wouldn’t fit with Houston.

I think the Red Sox could become major players for Lidge, but Ramirez doesn’t have to be involved.  Even outside of Andy Marte, the club has enough young talent to at least get a meeting with Astros GM Tim Purpura.  Pitchers Jon Lester, Jonathan Papelbon, and Craig Hansen can be contributers in 2006 and beyond, and Boston would love a rock-solid alternative to Keith Foulke.

Lopez goes on to write that the Phillies look like the only legitimate possibility for a deal.  Obviously I disagree with that.  It doesn’t make sense for the Phils to leave a gaping hole in their offense in order to craft a Yankee-like bullpen.

What other teams have a strong need at closer and the talent to swing a deal for Lidge?

Scanning the Closer Watch, I don’t see any.  The Orioles and Reds remain dark horses, but the Red Sox and Braves seem to be the best fits.

What do you think?         

Miguel Tejada Wants Out

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I had received a few tips from readers about Miguel Tejada possibly being traded.  I didn’t print anything because I couldn’t substantiate them.  Turns out those readers were on target; today Tejada said, "I think the best thing will be a change of scenery."  You can bet Tejada’s proclamation will get the hot stove buzzing once again.

It’s a strange thing for Tejada to say, given that the Orioles have several months left to improve their team.  He said that the Orioles "have not made any signings to strengthen the club."  If I were Ramon Hernandez, I’d be slightly offended by that remark.  And to think the two were teammates for so many years. 

Anyway, let’s begin with Tejada’s contract.  He’ll make $10MM in ’06, $12MM in ’07, $13MM in ’08, and $13MM in ’09.  That’s $48MM over four years.  He’d certainly snag more than that on the open market.  Tejada isn’t even 30 yet, and you know all about his offensive accolades and durability.  One mild sign of a possible decline is that Tejada slugged only .416 after the All-Star break in ’05, hitting seven home runs.  Still, that’s only 300 ABs and he may have felt uninspired. 

Here’s what we’re all wondering: where might Tejada end up?

Boston Red Sox.  Of course, they have a huge need for a shortstop and plenty of cash.  There’s even an article circulating saying that Tejada might want to play for the Red Sox.  The Sox could offer up Jon Lester and Dustin Pedroia for starters.  The one little problem is that the Orioles still consider themselves competitive, and would probably be reluctant to trade within the division.  Back when the Red Sox dealt Curt Schilling and Brady Anderson to the Orioles for Mike Boddicker, the O’s were completely out of the race.

Chicago Cubs.  I’m thinking that if Jim Hendry removes Felix Pie from the "untouchables" list, the Orioles would seriously consider shipping Tejada their way.  If the Cubs included Ronny Cedeno to take Tejada’s vacant spot, a deal could get done quickly. (This is all speculation, of course).

New York Mets.  The Mets seem willing to give Jose Reyes all the time he needs to develop into a leadoff threat at shortstop.  But Omar’s been mortgaging the future this winter like it’s going out of style, so you think he’d at least inquire.  The Orioles’ response would probably include the words "Lastings" and "Milledge." 

Toronto Blue Jays.  If the Orioles do decide to deal within the AL East, the Blue Jays could get involved.  Russ Adams is OK, but Ricciardi might have interest anyway.

Houston Astros.  If ownership doesn’t mind the commitment, the ’Stros might try to allocate some of that now-available Clemens cash for a marquee shortstop.  Not sure if they’ve got the prospects to cut it, though.

What do you think?  Any teams I’ve left out?  What players would it take to get a deal done?

Thanks to Tom and Dennis

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