2006 Top 50 Free Agents

We looked at how I did predicting the destinations of the top ten free agents back in March.  I got four out of the ten correct, five if the Rocket stays in Houston.  Let’s take a look at the next group, where there weren’t as many easy picks.  My pick is first here.  My Top 50 Free Agents list from last October can be found here.

11. B.J. Ryan – Phillies/Blue Jays.  I definitely underestimated just how much cash the Jays were willing to toss around.  I figured that the Phils would have room in the budget for a closer once Wagner defected and would go after the best available one in Ryan.  They did have some interest in him as their Plan B.

12.  Johnny Damon – Red Sox/Yankees.  I said he’d stay with the Sox but didn’t like the idea as outlined here.  Turns out New York was more willing to take on huge sunk costs than Boston was.  As a result, Andy Marte is an Indian. 

13. Ramon Hernandez – Mets/Orioles.  Definitely didn’t see this one coming with Javy Lopez already on the team and the free-spending Mets showing interest.  The Mets went with Paul Lo Duca instead.  If they miss the playoffs by one game, this decision will loom large.

14.  Paul Byrd – Red Sox/Indians.  I figured David Wells would have his request accomodated, and no one saw the Beckett deal coming.  Byrd looked like he’d be a value signing at something like 2/$12MM, but that didn’t happen.

15.  Erubiel Durazo – White Sox/Rangers. One of my bigger blunders, in that I don’t think I realized Durazo had undergone Tommy John surgery in the summer of ’05.  He obviously was not considered the 15th best free agent by any team.  I really liked the fit with the Sox, but that Thome guy is doing OK so far.

16. Kenji Johjima – Mariners/Mariners.  I said the Japanese star could be a bargain, and he was at $5MM annually.

17.  Tom Gordon – Marlins/Phillies.  Oops!  Keep in mind that this was before any sign of a fire sale and Gordon is a Florida native.  I thought he’d take a two-year deal when I was trying to decide how the available closers would get shuffled around.

18.  Jeff Weaver – Blue Jays/Angels.  The Jays were thinking much bigger than Weaver, opting for the riskier, higher upside of A.J. Burnett.  Weaver for one year was a fantastic move by the Angels.

19.  Jarrod Washburn – Brewers/Mariners.  Figured Doug Melvin would make a play for the Wisconsin native.  But at that price it would not have made sense for the Brew Crew.  Not that it made sense for Seattle.

20.  Bill Mueller – Brewers/Dodgers.  I figured Bill Hall would be used in a utility role again, but the Brewers went in a different direction with Koskie.

With the season on the horizon, I figured that it’s time to take a look back at my Top 50 Free Agents list.  I published this baby on October 25, 2005, which was before any of the other lists came out.  My goal was to beat Steve Phillips and ESPN, so we’ll tally it up at the end.  The list is in the format Player – Prediction/Actual.

1.  Roger Clemens – Astros/Undecided.  The Rocket has been holding up this entire review for quite some time.  He’ll probably come back to Houston, so this one will be a win.  But does anyone really think he’d play anywhere else?

2.  Daisuke Matsuzaka – Mariners/Lions.  Back before Japan’s best pitcher made a splash in the WBC, it looked like his team might post him and allow the Mariners, Yankees, Athletics, and Red Sox to compete for his services.  He would’ve probably been a more valuable commodity than A.J. Burnett if he’d come over.  Alas, Seibu’s manager said that it was obvious that his 2005 season record (2.30 ERA, 9.4 K/9) was "not convincing enough" for the team to post him. Keep an eye on this one for the 2006-07 offseason.   

3.  Paul Konerko – White Sox/White Sox.  I had a feeling it would be impossible for the Sox to let him walk even with the demand for a five-year deal.  The Angels and Orioles were deeply involved, with the Orioles even topping Chicago’s offer.  In the end, Paulie stayed put.  You have to respect that.

4.  A.J. Burnett – Nationals/Blue Jays.  I figured the team would have an owner by December and that the new regime would open up the checkbook for the best available starting pitcher.  Burnett and Washington had mutual interest, but Toronto simply outbid everyone else.   

5.  Brian Giles – Cardinals/Padres. We’ll probably never really know how amenable Giles was to leaving San Diego.  He certainly could’ve gotten more than three years and $30MM.  Giles has the type of skills that age well, and he was the best available outfielder by far.  Maybe the Cardinals never could’ve signed Giles even if they wanted to.  But the difference between Juan Encarnacion and Giles is probably four full wins in 2006, so keep that in mind at the end of the season.  Same goes for the Cubs, who went with Jacque Jones.

6.  Rafael Furcal – Cubs/Dodgers.  The Cubs really needed to overpay to get Furcal.  I like Ronny Cedeno, I really do.  But the 2006 difference in value is something close to three wins.  Those three wins might’ve pushed the Cubs over the hump for a division title.  The Dodgers swooped in with a shorter contract offer with a high annual average salary.  If L.A. eventually uses Cesar Izturis at second base, Derek Lowe will really reap the benefits of his new middle infield.

7.  Nomar Garciaparra – Dodgers/Dodgers.  I figured they’d employ him on the left side of the infield – Nomar doesn’t really have the bat for first base anymore.  For one year at a price of $6-10MM, it’s a low risk investment for a major market team.  Still, I’m not sure if he’ll be measurably better than Hee Seop Choi, who was waived.  But c’mon, it’s No-mah!

8.  Hideki Matsui – Yankees/Yankees.  This was a gimme, he didn’t really consider signing elsewhere.  He’ll continue to rack up the RBIs.

9.  Kevin Millwood – Orioles/Rangers.  Sosa and Palmeiro off the books, and the chance to reunite Millwood with Leo Mazzone?  Peter Angelos passed, as he often does on health risks.  Baltimore instead settled for a host of lamer moves: acquiring Kris Benson, Corey Patterson, and LaTroy Hawkins, signing Ramon Hernandez despite the presence of Javy Lopez, and signing Kevin Millar and Jeff Conine for veterany goodness.  All that for fourth place?  Hell, the D-Rays are a starter or two away from making the O’s a last place club.  With Burnett off the market, Texas went with the best available starter.

10.  Billy Wagner – Mets/Mets.  The Phillies swung and missed, and instead signed up for three years of Tom Gordon and his creaky elbow.  Mets fans can rest easy in the ninth inning, as Braden Looper is somewhere far, far away (St. Louis).

I realized that 50 is a lot of players, so I’ll break this into a five-part series.