Latest Phillies Rumors: Lowell, Rivera, Schilling
Let’s catch up on the rumors and minor moves involving the Phillies recently.
One offseason objective is, of course, third base. Abraham Nunez was an easy buyout decision; Pat Gillick will import a new third baseman this winter one way or another. Phils fans can stop dreaming up A-Rod scenarios; Gillick won’t pursue him. Mike Lowell is the one free agent 3B on the Phils’ radar. While Lowell wouldn’t mind playing in Philly, he made it clear yesterday that Boston remains his first choice. So there’s a good chance Gillick will have to get his man via trade. Scott Lauber names Garrett Atkins and Joe Crede (free agent after ’08, Boras client) as possible targets. We all know how Gillick loves dealing with Kenny Williams (and the Sox can use Josh Fields at third base).
Rod Barajas won’t be retained; Chris Coste will serve as the backup to Carlos Ruiz. A nice, cheap catching tandem.
How about pitching? Randy Miller has a source saying the Phils are targeting a couple of AL East stalwarts – Curt Schilling and Mariano Rivera. To sign Rivera at $12MM per and use Brett Myers in setup seems like a misallocation of resources to me. As for Schilling, Miller says he’s expressed interest in coming back to Philly to finish his career. I like the fit.
Miller also has some very interesting info on Aaron Rowand – he’s looking for a six-year, $84MM contract! Does that mean he ends up with a five-year, $60MM deal? Pretty hefty for a guy coming off a career year. Miller says the Phils won’t go for big-name replacements like Andruw Jones or Torii Hunter.
Finally, Pat Burrell has surfaced as a solid trading chip. He’s left with a reasonable one-year, $14MM commitment, albeit with a full-no trade clause that would require more compensation. How about Burrell to the White Sox for Crede? Phils kick in a couple mil, the White Sox get much-needed OBP for ’08 plus draft picks when Burrell leaves.
Odds and Ends
Here are some various trade rumors that didn’t quite have enough behind them for individual posts.
- There’s a gossip section in the Boston Herald called Inside Track, written by Gayle Fee, Laura Raposa, and Erin Hayes. They heard that Coco Crisp told fans at the recent Division Champs celebration that he expects to be dealt this winter to make room for Jacoby Ellsbury. By most accounts Crisp has developed into a fine defensive center fielder, and he’s under contract for $4.75MM in ’08, $5.75MM in ’09, and an $8MM club option in ’10. Perhaps Crisp could be used to acquire a third baseman in the event that Mike Lowell leaves and the Red Sox can’t sign A-Rod.
- Phil Wood of the Washington Examiner speculates that the Nationals could get in on Jason Bay. Not the worst idea, but the Nats don’t seem to have the available young pitching for the deal.
- Mark Bradley of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution likes the Nate Robertson to Atlanta idea, tossing Joe Blanton and Shaun Marcum into the mix as other options.
- Bob Wickman may quietly retire, bumming out these guys.
- El Lefty Malo dissects recent comments from Giants GM Brian Sabean.
- Peter Abraham suggests the Mets trade Carlos Beltran for pitching.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Joba The Starter?
It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.
Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60. Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year." Now wait, where have we heard that argument before? Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon.
Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been. Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise! Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right. With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum. And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start. Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now. Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference: the Yankees actually have a closer.
It’s an interesting conundrum. In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief. The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera. There’s an obvious divide in thought here.
I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done. Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc) would be solid for 2008. And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Sox Owner Hopes Lowell Stays
Congrats to Cubs, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks fans! What a finish this year has been.
At the beer-soaked madness that was Fenway last night, Red Sox Chairman Tom Werner dubbed Mike Lowell the team’s MVP. The Boston Globe reports when Principal Owner John Henry was asked if Mike Lowell would be retained, he said, "In Florida, Mike played for me three years, my first three years [as Marlins owner]. We sort of grew up in the game together. It would be a wonderful thing."
As Tim pointed out here, Lowell could be open to a 2 year, $22MM contract to stay in Boston. But Lowell has seen a gradual resurgence in offensive production, filling in effectively for the injured Manny Ramirez, hitting .325 this year with 20 HR and 118 RBI, an all-time club best for Red Sox third basemen. Not to mention he plays arguably the best defense at his position in the American League. And when you consider the only other two third basemen certain to enter free agency are Pedro Feliz and Mike Lamb, I suspect the market will be ripe for a talent like Mike Lowell.
While they can move Kevin Youkilis back to third, expect the Sox to make an offer to Lowell. I would anticipate a 2 year deal, $20-24MM.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: Coco Crisp, Freddy Garcia
Ken Rosenthal has a new Full Count video up; check it out. Interesting trade rumor nuggets:
- Some have speculated that the apparent emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury might compel the Red Sox to trade Coco Crisp this winter. Crisp is signed affordably at $4.75MM in ’08, $5.75MM in ’09, and an $8MM club option in ’10. While his .723 OPS is slightly below-average for center fielders, Rosenthal says the Red Sox consider Crisp’s defense to be Gold Glove caliber. The Red Sox seem more likely to retain Crisp and have Ellsbury serve as an oft-used fourth outfielder for now. They’d ask for a lot for Crisp if they did trade him.
- Very interesting idea floating around regarding Freddy Garcia. Rosenthal says that instead of signing this winter, Garcia could rehab on his own and join a contender midseason as a free agent, Roger Clemens style. Garcia had surgery in late August to repair a frayed rotator cuff and torn labrum, according to Will Carroll. No word yet on his timetable.
Lowell Seems Open To Yankees
Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald spoke to Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell recently about his future. Like most players, Lowell has a list of teams he’d consider. We know the Phillies are on that list, but it also appears that Lowell would also entertain jumping over to the Yankees.
As you know, Lowell came up through the Yankee system and made his Major League debut with the club in ’98. The strong support Lowell received while moving up the system has kept them in a positive light in his eyes despite the rivalry. Still, it’s been said that Lowell’s first choice is Boston and he might go for a two-year, $22MM deal.
Lowell is the fairly affordable third base alternative to Alex Rodriguez, should the superstar opt out. It definitely seems possible that the Yankees and Red Sox "swap" third basemen this winter. The difference between the two players so far has been 4.2 wins in A-Rod’s favor, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Stark’s Latest: Clemens, Pettitte, Lowell
Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up at ESPN. Let’s discuss.
- Most folks think Roger Clemens will retire after the season. The "will he, won’t he" storyline is one I won’t mind avoiding this winter. Remember, back in February Roger said he told his son it was "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said, "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play." Good riddance.
- Andy Pettitte has a $16MM player option for 2008. This is similar to an out clause, where it’s win-win for the player. He only exercises it if he couldn’t get it on the open market. Pettitte’s the best free agent starting pitcher if he opts out. Stark seems to think he’d decline the option but then just re-up with the Yankees for more money and/or years.
- Word is that Mike Lowell would enjoy playing for the Phillies if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him. Gordon Edes isn’t sure if the Red Sox would offer him three years, and believes another team might go four. A four-year deal would cover his age 34-37 seasons…probably a bad move. Then again, what do I know? I thought he was toast after 2005.
Schilling Would Consider Devil Rays In 2008
Curt Schilling acts as his own agent, and he has a list of less than ten teams he’d like to play for in 2008. He actually prefers a one-year deal over two. His main priority, as you might expect, is joining a team with a strong chance to win the World Series. Almost any team in baseball would benefit from signing Schilling to a one-year deal.
But an intriguing possibility surfaced yesterday. Schilling would be open to playing for an up-and-coming young team like the Devil Rays. He’d love to join their rotation and work with young hurlers like Scott Kazmir, Jamie Shields, Andy Sonnanstine, and Edwin Jackson. That could actually make a formidable rotation. Granted it may have just been a throwaway comment by Schilling, made mainly because the Red Sox are in Tampa Bay right now.
Could you imagine if the Devil Rays raised their payroll from the $25MM range to $75MM? They could add Schilling, maybe a Francisco Cordero, and even make Jorge Posada an offer he couldn’t refuse. And they’d still have plenty of cash left over to build some depth.
Odds and Ends
Some random rumors and links for Tuesday afternoon…
- The Rockies signed Mark Redman to a minor league contract. It makes sense to add some depth, but I like the team’s plan of using high-octane arms Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales instead of the safe veteran options.
- Rick Sutcliffe‘s thoughts on showboating.
- At one time, it seemed that Jason Jennings would be primed for a big payday this winter. He still could get a Marquis contract despite his 6.45 ERA in 18 starts. But prospective buyers have to be concerned that he replied "I don’t know" when asked if he is healthy. By the way, that link details a failed ballpark marriage proposal that resulted in popcorn being dumped on the guy’s head. On the Jumbotron.
- It wouldn’t be the Kansas City Star without an enormous pixellated close-up of the player in question. This time it’s Mark Grudzielanek, who’s been extended through 2008. Grudz wouldn’t have reached the 500 PAs needed to guarantee his $4MM option for ’08.
- The Red Sox still haven’t spoken to Mike Lowell about a contract extension. He wants to stay, and Nick Cafardo suggests Jermaine Dye could be the comp at two years, $22MM. That’d be a major concession for Lowell, who’d be the best free agent third baseman unless A-Rod opts out. One scenario has Kevin Youkilis moving to third base and some sort of league average first baseman stepping in, like the newly acquired Chris Carter. Another has the Red Sox signing Alex Rodriguez. The middle ground to those extremes is just to agree on a two-year deal with Lowell. It’d make sense for the Red Sox to hold off on Lowell until they see what A-Rod does.
- The Eric Byrnes contract may serve as a model for Jose Guillen.
- Tom Koch-Weser of STATS, Inc. has a new WHIFF profile of San Diego’s Chris Young. A must-read as always.