Red Sox Emerge As Top Buehrle Suitor
Here’s something we didn’t see coming. According to Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, the Red Sox have emerged as the frontrunner for southpaw Mark Buehrle. They’ve jumped ahead of the Braves and Mets on the strength of their farm system.
Cowley says talks between Buehrle and the White Sox regarding an extension are basically dead. Now Boston has taken center stage, even sending assistant GM Allard Baird to watch Buehrle’s last start (a typical fine effort from him).
Cowley believes a major motivation for the Red Sox is keeping Buehrle away from the Yankees. The Red Sox would apparently give him a five year extension. Possible targets for Kenny Williams: Clay Buchholz, Michael Bowden, Jacoby Ellsbury, and Jed Lowrie. In my opinion: two of those guys, done deal. Buchholz is arguably the best pitching prospect in the minors, and would make White Sox fans forget about Buehrle fairly quickly.
Williams plans to sit back and listen to all offers first, of course. According to Cowley, at least seven teams have made serious contact.
Mailbag: Matt Clement
Let’s get this mailbag thing rolling, see if anyone enjoys it. You can send me mailbag questions at mlbtraderumors@gmail.com.
This question comes from Yochai of Brookline, MA:
What’s the deal with Matt Clement? What are the Red Sox’s plans in regards to him? Are they basically going to wait until his contract expires or are they actually waiting for him to come back to pitch?
Clement underwent shoulder surgery last September. An exploratory procedure found labrum and rotator cuff damage, and that was repaired. Clement’s agent has compared the work done to that of Saints QB Drew Brees. Serious stuff.
Back in November, Clement was making positive progress in his rehab and hoped to return to action by the All-Star break. He threw for the first time in February. He was up to 105 feet in the last report in April, but wasn’t close to throwing off a mound. According to that report, he was setback free and ahead of schedule.
Unfortunately I can’t find a word in print about Clement since the April 25th Boston Herald article. Maybe injury gurus Will Carroll and Rick Wilton can dig something up, or a reporter can just ask Terry Francona.
Clement is earning $9.5MM this season in the last year of his contract. My guess is that the Red Sox will take their time with him and treat him as a complete luxury. If he’s able to pitch competitively sometime around August, he’s going to have to prove himself in the minors first. Will his velocity still be there? By the time Clement returns, Jon Lester may be in the rotation in place of Julian Tavarez. If not, and everyone else is healthy, Lester will be the sixth man.
I can definitely see Clement pitching in the bullpen to re-establish himself. If the Red Sox clinch a playoff berth, maybe they’d rest a rotation member and give him a start or two. It will mainly be an audition for the 2008 season, during which Clement will be 34. No doubt he will hook on somewhere as a free agent if his arm is still attached. Let’s say $3 mil plus a ton of incentives. I’m rooting for him and I have my Clement goatee ready.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video
Ken Rosenthal has a new video up at FOXSports.com for your viewing pleasure. My summary:
- As you know, Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka are drawing strong interest across baseball. The only team named by Rosenthal is the Yankees, and in a roundabout way. He simply said that the Rangers have been scouting the Yanks.
- Both the Dodgers and Angels would love to add a power-hitting third baseman. The problem is, there’s not much about there. Rosenthal says Troy Glaus, Mike Lowell, and Miguel Cabrera are all currently unavailable. One who might become available and could play third is Miguel Tejada. My own speculation on some possible second-tier trade candidates at third base (some long shots included): Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, and Wilson Betemit.
- Michael Barrett could be on his way out of Chicago, mostly because of his defense. Rosenthal names the Marlins and Rockies as interested parties.
Schilling Would Still Take $13MM For ’08 From Red Sox
Steve Silva of the Boston Globe writes about Curt Schilling‘s appearance on WEEI this morning in the Extra Bases blog.
Apparently if the Red Sox were to offer Schilling the same $13MM he wanted in the preseason for 2008, he would still accept. Does it still make sense for Epstein to play it safe, and then maybe give Schilling an additional million or two as a penalty? That would be very agreeable to the Red Sox, but then they’d risk losing him.
The concern is that Schilling may experience the same second half decline he did in 2006. But after a closer examination of his last three months of last year, it wasn’t that bad. He was hittable, but his trademark command was still there and he still managed 6.4 innings per start. If that’s the worst case scenario it’s worth tying him up right now.
Twins After Mike Lowell?
At this time last year, Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell had surprised most people by batting .310/.357/.515. He slumped a bit to .267/.327/.448 thereafter, but it was a major bonus when the unwanted throw-in to the Josh Beckett trade became an asset. That year, he was actually the better part of the deal.
The Padres had about three different Lowell trade rumors floating about last year. What began as a legitimate, sensible rumor somehow became Lowell for Jake Peavy. I still don’t know how that one picked up steam. The Twins were mentioned, though I don’t know if it ever became an official rumor.
Today, La Velle Neal III of the Minneapolis Star-Tribune writes that Lowell might be available again this year and could be a fit for the Twins if Boston eats some of his $9MM salary. Neal says the Sox could pull a blockbuster, acquiring Mark Teixeira, moving Kevin Youkilis to third, and trading Lowell. Sure, it’s a long shot, but we’re all about speculation here at MLBTR. The guy that keeps coming to mind as a very useful possibly available Twin is Scott Baker. I still refuse to believe that his repertoire and command can’t work in a fifth or even fourth starter role in the bigs.
Ken Rosenthal recently discussed clubs that could pursue Lowell as a free agent after this season: the Yankees, Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies, and Astros. Any of those teams aside from the Yanks could look to make that move a few months early via trade.
Cafardo On Curt Schilling
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe wants Curt Schilling signed for 2008 right now, but I still think waiting is wise. As I said yesterday, Schilling started off 2006 the same way but his performance really diminished in the second half.
Troy Renck of the Denver Post doesn’t see the Red Sox expending any effort to acquire Todd Helton, which makes sense given the play of Kevin Youkilis and Mike Lowell. He does mention that Boston still likes Helton, so maybe talks would be revisited if Lowell leaves via free agency this winter. The Rockies, of course, should leave the door permanently open for Boston.
Will Red Sox Rethink Schilling Extension?
Curt Schilling will arguably be the best free agent starter this winter. Carlos Zambrano and Mark Buehrle may be the big names, but those guys will be looking for deals around five years and may not be better than Schilling in 2008 anyway.
When we last checked in on this situation in March, Schilling had no hard feelings towards the Sox but didn’t want to discuss anything until after the season. At that time the Red Sox were his first choice, and I doubt anything has changed. Right now, Schilling for $13MM in 2008 seems like a no-brainer. However, we would’ve said the same thing last year at the All-Star break when he was 10-3 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Schilling did wear down a bit in the dog days of summer. If the Red Sox are able to wait but remain the favorite for Schilling, that’s clearly the best choice.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Time for another Rosenthal column! Some of this is just a writeup from his recent video; here’s the new stuff.
- A little elaboration on the Adam Dunn to San Diego idea – Rosenthal throws Clay Hensley‘s name into the mix. Hensley has had a rough couple of months, with a nasty blister, a groin strain, and some awful starts. His 54% groundball rate would be a nice fit in Chicago or Cincinnati. Another player I could see catching Wayne Krivsky’s eye is Cla Meredith.
- The Cubs continue to shop Jacque Jones, hoping to slide Felix Pie in every day. Pie is ready for the show, but the Cubs would like something to show for Jones. He is earning $4MM this year and $5MM in ’08. It looked like a bargain after Jones hit .285/.334/.499 last year, but he’s tanked in the Cubs’ crowded outfield. He could fit well with the Padres, a team that doesn’t hit lefties or righties. Jones normally just struggles with lefties. Jacque was born in San Diego, too. Kevin Towers and Jim Hendry matched up for a couple of smaller deals last summer with Todd Walker and Scott Williamson.
- Mike Lowell may leave Boston after this season as a free agent. He’s easily the best affordable 3B on the market. Perhaps the Yankees want him back. Other possibilities include the Dodgers, Giants, Angels, Phillies, and Astros according to Rosenthal. Hard to believe Lowell is so popular and successful after he was a throw-in forced upon the Red Sox in the Josh Beckett deal.
- Eric Byrnes is probably headed out of Arizona, and he’d be a valuable center field addition who won’t break the bank. He’ll be 32 in ’08, and on a reasonable three-year deal could be a better value than Ichiro, Torii, or Andruw. Wouldn’t be surprised to see the White Sox get involved.
Heyman On Teixeira
With the trading deadline a mere two months away, we have to drum up some big names on which to speculate. The advent of no-trade clauses and the valuation of young pitching seems to have resulted in fewer blockbusters. Mark Teixeira seems to be this summer’s big name.
We last speculated about Teixeira two weeks ago. The Orioles and Nick Markakis were discussed, as well as the fit for the Angels. The Nationals were seen as a long shot. Jon Heyman has talked to some baseball execs on this topic, and he’s got more ideas. Heyman adds the Red Sox, Yankees, and Dodgers to the mix as well.
The Yanks seemingly wouldn’t mind adding a major slugger at first base, and Heyman’s source doesn’t think they want Todd Helton. But unless the Yanks revert to their old ways and trade The Franchise – Phil Hughes – a Teixeira acquisition seems unlikely. The Yankees don’t have other elite pitching prospects. They would have to go to more established players. The Rangers don’t have a fit for Robinson Cano, though Chien-Ming Wang and his groundballing nature could work.
There’s no real reason for the Red Sox to give up the farm for Teixeira, unless they just want to keep him from the Yankees. I don’t see it.
The Dodgers I see as a strong player. James Loney plus one of their top-rated starting pitching prospects and it’s a done deal. I’m not sure Nomar can handle third base these days, but I don’t see that problem preventing a trade.
Back to the Orioles – as much as Teixeira is dying to play for them, he’s not going to take a big discount and the price in young players will be high. Then again, if the O’s could work something out involving Daniel Cabrera but not Markakis, that gamble could work for both clubs.
The Angels are a fantastic fit, but when has Bill Stoneman ever made a trade like this? I guess there’s a first time for everything.
Let’s not count out the Mets, Braves, or Tigers, either.
Wily Mo Pena And The Padres?
Buster Olney had an intriguing thought in his blog yesterday. The Padres’ bullpen is a source of strength, but they’ve got a lefty-heavy lineup and are tenth in the league in slugging. How about Wily Mo Pena to the Padres for a top shelf reliever, maybe Scott Linebrink?
I know what you’re thinking – the Red Sox have the best relief ERA in the league. OK, maybe you weren’t thinking that. I had to look it up. But Boston’s relief success has been reliant on two players – Jonathan Papelbon and Hideki Okajima. Are the Sox confident that this pair will remain healthy and effective all year?
Wily Mo is an unfortunate story. The 25 year-old has prodigious power and should be entering the prime of his career, but his development has been trifled with. He essentially skipped Triple A, and now the Red Sox can barely find at-bats for him. Pena’s comparables list is littered with names like Frank Howard, Matt Holliday, Dale Murphy, Jay Buhner, Jesse Barfield, and Richie Sexson. Pena is a 40 homer season waiting to happen. He won’t find an opportunity in Boston unless Manny Ramirez is traded.