Yanks Need Outfield Help
The trade rumor question on everyone’s mind today: who are the Yankees getting to replace Hideki Matsui?
Buster Olney ran through seven options in his blog today. Let’s assess these first.
1. Bobby Abreu was the headliner today. Olney reiterated Gillick’s aggressive attempts to deal him this winter. But as a few commenters on this site have mentioned, why would the Phillies trade Abreu to the Yanks when their team is contending? New York doesn’t have an equitable starting pitcher to offer in return (unless Carl Pavano gets a visit from the 2003 fairy again). Dealing Abreu for Philip Hughes and another prospect just isn’t sensible for the Phillies.
2. With a projection of .273/.335/.406, Shannon Stewart ain’t replacing Matsui’s offense. Matsui is a 5-6 win player, Stewart is a two win player.
3. Torii Hunter is a better option, though his defense is not what it once was. If the Twins could wrangle Hughes for Hunter, it would be a killer move for them. It seems likely that the Yankees will at least inquire, and Hunter would be happy on the big stage.
4. Olney rightfully questions Aubrey Huff as a poor fit because of a slow start, poor defense, and no good match among Yankee pitching prospects.
5. Alfonso Soriano is sounding less crazy each time I think about it. But again, could this happen without Hughes? Wouldn’t be worth that price.
6. Mike Cameron…not sure why he is on this list.
7. Austin Kearns…see Mike Cameron.
Now to add a few others:
A couple of mid-tier options I mentioned in conjunction with St. Louis still could apply: Reggie Sanders, David Dellucci, and Craig Wilson would all come at a lesser cost.
Some more large salaried possibilities: Carlos Lee, Shawn Green, Luis Gonzalez, Raul Ibanez, Jim Edmonds, Mark Kotsay, and Juan Pierre. These guys are admittedly less likely for various reasons, but it’s always fun to speculate. I was surprised to hear that the Brewers are trying to work out a contract extension for Lee.
I really could see Hunter as the guy, especially since the Twins are already in fourth place, 8.5 games out. If the Yanks want a player comparable to Matsui, it should cost them Hughes and perhaps Jose Tabata or another younger prospect.
Cubs Shopping Maddux?
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.
The Yankees And Torii Hunter
In my April 6th post "The Torii Hunter Situation," I didn’t mention that Yankees as a potential suitor. I figured Johnny Damon was cemented as the team’s center fielder. But now Damon says he’d be willing to move to right field for Hunter. Such a switch could push Gary Sheffield to DH, not a bad thing.
If Damon’s arm is not good enough for center field, I don’t know how it would suffice in right. But let’s put that little problem aside for a moment and try to determine whether the Yanks have the goods on the farm to get a deal done.
I think New York most certainly has the players to make this type of trade. They may see starting pitching as more of a concern, but some combination of these players is likely to be traded this summer.
Philip Hughes – Would the Yanks trade their one bona fide pitching prospect? If the past is any indication, yes. The 19 year-old righty ranks as the 12th best pitching prospect in the game, according to Baseball Prospectus.
Hughes has drawn some Mark Prior comparisons, and that includes the injury proclivities. PECOTA, however, considers Jake Peavy his #1 comp. The kid has had his way with the Florida State League so far (high class A ball). He’s got ten scoreless innings under his belt for the Tampa Yankees this year, and could find himself in the Trenton Thunder rotation in a couple of months. If the Yanks want one of those marquee Marlins, Hughes will be a requirement. Could they get Hunter without trading Hughes? Maybe.
Robinson Cano – You know him, you love him. The Rennie Stennett wannabe burst onto the Major League scene last year with a .297/.320/.458 line in 544 plate appearances. PECOTA sees a dip to a .726 OPS this year from the 23 year-old second baseman. That’s OK, though some would say that he defense pushes him towards the bottom half of the 2B rankings.
Cano’s trade value is sky-high, and the Twins have a $5.75MM option for 2007 on Luis Castillo. Given that a Hunter trade would be a white flag, the Twins would likely ship Castillo elsewhere as well. Maybe even in the same package.
Jose Tabata – For a team in rebuilding mode, Tabata would be quite a prize to pluck from the Yankees’ system. Tabata is a 17 year-old outfielder for the Charleston RiverDogs (low class A). He’s dominated the South Atlantic League so far with a .390/.395/.537 line in 10 games. He’s a five-tool player with a huge ceiling, though he hasn’t been nearly as difficult to strike out this year as he was in the past. A perfect fit for the Marlins, though he could make a Hunter trade pay off in a big way for the Twins in 2008 and beyond.
Eric Duncan – He makes for an interesting prospect, and the Yankees have been aggressive in promoting him. The 21 year-old struggled in Double A last year but begins this season at Columbus anyway. He’ll be a corner infielder in the bigs. Duncan has been involved in trade rumors for a while now, but so far the accelerated schedule hasn’t helped his prospect status.
With major questions in the last two rotation spots, the Yankees are doing to need to make a major deal or two. To fire off their best bullets to acquire Hunter doesn’t make much sense, even if Damon likes the idea.
2007 MLB Free Agents: Andy Pettitte
New York papers are abuzz with Andy Pettitte talk, so I thought I’d get in on the act. Pettitte opened up to reporters yesterday, saying that retirement after the 2006 season is an option if his elbow can’t handle any more.
Pettitte turns 34 this June and will make $17.5MM this season in the last year of his backloaded three-year contract. One article mentioned that before the 2004 season, Pettitte asked his agent to limit the contract to three years. Given that obvious uncertainty and Pettitte’s desire to be with his family, retirement is entirely feasible even with the lefty on top of his game.
Yankees fans, of course, would love Pettitte to return to his old stomping grounds. The team could use another mercenary ace starter, whether it be midseason or for 2007. If it was a one-year contract for 2007, Pettitte could probably find a team to come close to the record $18MM Roger Clemens received last year with Houston.
Here’s the issue with any major Yankees trade: if they want to acquire a star player, they have a very limited set of players to deal. Off the top of my head, Philip Hughes, Robinson Cano, and maybe Matt DeSalvo (though he’s 25 now). Why would the Astros surrender Pettitte for anything less? (And don’t try to sell me on Eric Duncan‘s performance in the AFL or something). Same goes for Barry Zito, Doug Davis, or whatever other reinforcements the Yankees might pursue if Johnson/Mussina/Chacon/Wang/Pavano doesn’t hold up (and it’d be a miracle if those five held up). Jaret Wright is a joke, Aaron Small a fluke. I think the Yanks will be in the market for a starter this summer and Hughes will have to go.
Did A-Rod Recruit Sosa?
A reader emailed me with an interesting trade rumor nugget that I hadn’t noticed before. He directed me to the sidebar of a recent ESPN Deportes article by Enrique Rojas:
"Sammy Sosa, who has been mulling retiring from baseball after receiving only a non-guaranteed contract offer from the Washington Nationals, received an unexpected visitor Sunday at his home in Miami: Alex Rodriguez. The New York Yankees third baseman called on Sosa in order to find out from the slugger himself how the "Caribbean Bambino" is doing, according to Tuesday’s edition of the Hoy newspaper in Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic.
A source close to Sosa told Hoy that Rodriguez was not there as a "messenger" for the Yankees, but that he just wanted to find out what was going on with the 1998 National League MVP, and what his plans are for 2006. In the past, the Yankees have used star players as "advance scouts" in some key trade and free agent negotiations."
Alright, so this looks like a non-rumor based on Hoy’s information. But for the sake of my own amusement, let’s take a look at the Yankees’ depth chart.
First off, you’ve got the 37 year-old Gary Sheffield without much backup in right field. Admittedly, he’s been very healthy for the past three seasons. But how much do the Yanks want to push their luck that he plays 154 games again?
Second, Bernie Williams is listed as the primary DH. I’m not sure if Sosa could outdo Williams’s .249/.321/.367 line. But this is a ballclub that gave 170 ABs to Ruben Sierra last year. Sosa can probably still hit lefties reasonably well (.841 OPS in 2005 though just 104 ABs), and he might swallow his pride for a team with the Yankees’ stature. I’m just saying is all.
UPDATE: Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune thinks Sosa should use the WBC as an audition, assuming he can pass the steroid test.
Comparing Crisp And Damon
Both Coco Crisp and Johnny Damon came at a very steep price. The Red Sox mortgaged part of their future, while the Yankees simply coughed up $52MM for four years. Tossing salaries and cost of acquisition aside, which team actually has the better player for 2006?
Let’s start by looking at Baseball Prospectus’s WARP statistic. Wins Above Replacement Player is a measure of value that combines both offense and defense into a single number.
Damon was worth 5.5 wins in 2005, while Crisp tallied 5.6. So the players had very near equal value. Baseball Prospectus projects Crisp at 4.6 wins in 2006, whereas Damon projects at 5.7. It will be interesting to see if those projections are changed before the ’06 season begins.
As leadoff hitters, who gets on base more often? Damon has a career OBP of .353, but his last two seasons had rates of .380 and .366. Crisp has a more pedestrian .332 career OBP, with marks of .344 and .345 in recent years. It’s not a huge difference, but Damon has a clear advantage here.
Damon’s overall offense is superior, probably worth about one win more than Crisp.
How about defense? Damon posted 14 FRAR (Fielding Runs Above Replacement) in 2005 and 22 the season before. Crisp managed 15 FRAR in left field last season, and 11 as mostly a CF in 2004. His playing time was limited, but it still looks like Damon may have a slight edge here. Damon had a 2.93 range factor in 2005 to Crisp’s 2.23. Crisp posted a 2.32 mark in 2004. Fielding stats are imperfect, but it doesn’t hurt to consider what’s available.
One other factor to consider is that Damon is entering his age 32 season while Crisp is entering his age 26. That’s an important six year difference. Crisp’s most comparable player, Jim Piersall, posted a .293/.350/.449 line at age 26. Damon’s closest comp is Kenny Lofton, who hit .301/.405/.432 at age 32 but managed just 465 ABs. Obviously these are just comparisons, but Lofton basically became a part-time player due to injuries and declining skills at age 35. After hitting .322 at age 31, Piersall didn’t contribute much in any season.
It’s close, but I’d rather have Damon if I was trying to win it all in 2006. Certainly Boston’s decision is defensible considering Damon’s contract and age.
Yanks Sign Damon
The Yankees snagged center fielder Johnny Damon for four years, $52MM, making the winter splash we’ve come to expect from them. I had Damon as the 12th best free agent on the market, but I guessed wrong that he’d re-sign with Boston. I will give myself a minor pat on the back for coming within $2MM of his contract, however.
Back in mid-October, I explained why I thought Damon at four years was going to be a bad signing. His defense is slipping big-time, and his bat isn’t far behind. In 2008 and 2009, the Yankees might have another Bernie Williams-type liability on their hands.
That said, it’s the Yankees. If they want to treat Year 4 and maybe Year 3 of this deal as sunk costs, they can do that. He’s still the best option for 2006 (given that they already tried Kenny Lofton) and this type of thing is expected from the Yankees.
One last thing – it’s really cool to see an article of mine up on Fox Sports. Thanks to all those who read what I write and have given me opportunities.
Dotel Prefers Yankees
Just got a note from my favorite source today. Remember our New York barber friend who’s in tight with Octavio Dotel? My source got another haircut today, and Dotel’s preference was revealed to be the Yankees.
According to my source, both the barber and another friend of Dotel’s were confident that the reliever wants to pitch for the Yankees. In addition, Dotel believes he will be ready to pitch by opening day.
Signing Dotel could make up for the Yanks’ failure to get Rudy Seanez and would give them a strikeout heavy, dominant bullpen. In Mariano Rivera, Kyle Farnsworth, and Octavio Dotel, the Yankees would have three men capable of closing games. It could be reminiscent of the famous Lidge-Dotel-Wagner trio.
No new word on Dotel’s merengue album at this time.
Update: Ken Rosenthal reports that the Yanks are closing in on a one-year, $2MM deal with Dotel. Looks like the reliever got his wish. Rosenthal mentions a possible June return to a Major League mound for Dotel; based on my info I think it’ll happen in May.
Thanks to Dan
Red Sox & Yankees Sleepers
For all you fantasy nuts, I’ve taken a look back at some Yankees and Red Sox sleeper types I identified back in July. I did pretty well there; take a look.
Astros Or Retirement For Clemens
Plenty of buzz going around about Roger Clemens entertaining new teams such as the Red Sox, Yankees, or Rangers for the 2006 season. According to my Astros source, however, Clemens is again choosing between the Astros and retirement.
Houston Chronicle writer Brian McTaggart has confirmed that Brad Ausmus is very close to signing a two-year pact with the Astros. It’s well known that Clemens does not want to pitch for any other catcher, and the Red Sox tried in vain to lure Ausmus out East. Boston was never really an option for Ausmus, who wants to be a starter and considered only San Diego as an alternative.
According to my Astros source, look for Clemens to return to Houston and start taking advantage of some of his previously negotiated perks. In 2006, Clemens would skip more road trips to stay with his family. Look for Roger to pull a few strings and try to get the Astros to promote his son Koby to the Corpus Christi Hooks (Double A club located in Texas). Third baseman Koby has played just nine games at Class A with the Tri City ValleyCats in New York. In addition, Roger has a ten-year agreement to work for the Astros after retirement to work with the club’s young players.
After pitching in the World Baseball Classic, expect Clemens to take a few months off and return to the Astros around mid-June. His salary will certainly be less than $18MM, and the team will hopefully have acquired the improved offensive players Clemens desires.