Offseason In Review: Philadelphia Phillies

Time to close out the Offseason In Review serieswith a look at the Phillies.  Here's what we wrote about them on November 6th.

Additions: Raul Ibanez, Chan Ho Park, Jack Taschner, Miguel Cairo, Scott Eyre (re-signed), Jamie Moyer (re-signed), John Mayberry, Rodrigo Lopez, Gustavo Chacin, Pablo Ozuna, Gary Majewski, Dave Borkowski.  Midseason: Joe Blanton

Subtractions: Pat Burrell, Geoff Jenkins, Adam Eaton, So Taguchi, Rudy Seanez, Tom Gordon

Extensions: Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels, Jayson Werth, Ryan Madson, Greg Dobbs

I wrote in November that the Phillies "didn't win the World Series on a bunch of career years, so keeping this group intact is a reasonable strategy."  That's pretty much what new GM Ruben Amaro Jr. did, locking up current players, jettisoning dead weight, and replacing Burrell with Ibanez.  Let's take a closer look.

Last year the Phillies were third in the NL with 4.93 runs per game, though their .332 OBP ranked seventh.  As a left-handed hitter and poor fielder, Ibanez seemed a questionable fit for the Phillies.  They jumped on him in mid-December for full market price – $31.5MM.  Burrell would later sign with the Rays for half the dollars.  On the other hand, Ibanez is a solid bat and the Phillies project to score 4.98 runs per game according to CHONE projections and the Baseball Musings lineup analysis tool.  Howard's OBP should bounce back, and Jenkins won't be eating up 322 plate appearances.

The Phillies' 2008 rotation ranked seventh in the NL with a 4.23 ERA in 966.2 innings.  This time they'll have Blanton all year plus Chan Ho Park and possibly J.A. Happ filling the fifth starter role.  Carlos Carrasco gives the Phillies additional depth.  The front three of Cole Hamels, Brett Myers, and Moyer returns, with concerns already surfacing about Hamels' elbow.  Obviously the Phils need another big year from Hamels, but otherwise I think they can weather regression from Moyer just by not trotting out Kyle Kendrick and Eaton for 49 starts again.

The vaunted Phillies bullpen posted a 3.22 ERA in 483 innings last year.  The main change for '09: Eyre, Happ, and Taschner will soak up lefty innings in the first third of the year while J.C. Romero serves his suspension.  Just with typical regression the '09 pen projects around 3.93, according to CHONE.

The Phillies had the best defense in baseball last year, according to The Fielding Bible II.  The main differences in '09 – more Werth, no Jenkins, and the Burrell-Ibanez swap – shouldn't change much.  The Phillies still have an awesome defensive infield and the fine work of Victorino in center.

In trying to match or exceed their 92 wins from last year, the Phillies deal with rotation uncertainty and regression in the bullpen.  I have them around 90-91 wins, assuming 200+ innings from Hamels.  You may recall I had the Braves at 90 and the Mets around 86.  It should be a fierce battle for the NL East, and the Marlins can't be counted out.

Bottom line: The World Series champs didn't change much in the offseason.  On paper the Phillies still look like the best team in the NL East, albeit with a very small margin for error.

Delwyn Young Drawing Interest

Tony Jackson of the LA Times tells us that Dodgers' outfielder Delwyn Young is drawing interest from numerous teams. The Indians, Pirates, and Phillies have all had scouts present in the past week during a rehab assignment. Jackson expects a move to be made in the next few days.

Young, 26, is out of options. Jackson wrote in an earlier piece that he expected Young's rehab stint to go the maximum 20 days because there doesn't appear to be a place for him on the 25-man roster.

Young hasn't been overly impressive in the Majors over parts of three seasons, but he's a switch hitter and possesses a .303/.363/.515 minor league line.

Phillies Satisfied With Current Bench

According to MLB.com's Todd Zolecki, the Phillies have no immediate plans to add another bench player.  

"We're always looking to improve, but nothing is imminent," Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Saturday.  The Phils appear content with their current list of reserves, a group that consists of Greg Dobbs, Matt Stairs, Eric Bruntlett, Chris Coste and Miguel Cairo. Amaro was thought to be on the hunt for a right-handed hitter, but he'll apparently stand pat for now.

The Phillies, as you'll probably remember, were one of the first teams to express serious interest in Gary Sheffield before he signed with the Mets.

Phillies Sign Tyler Walker

From Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle:

Aaron Rowand just got a text from Tyler Walker saying he's just been signed by the Phillies. Apparently it's a minor-league deal because Walker said he is reporting to Clearwater, Fla. Walker was released by Seattle at the end of spring training.

Walker, 33 in May, posted a 4.56 ERA in 53.3 innings last year with a 8.3 K/9.  He had something of a roller coaster season, alternating between good and bad months for the Giants.  Since Walker has less than five years service time, the Phillies could potentially retain him in 2010 as an arbitration-eligible player.

Sheffield, Mets Agree To Deal

SUNDAY, 2:40pm: Matthew Cerrone from MetsBlog tells us that Nick Evans was optioned to AAA in order to make room for Sheffield.

4:32pm: Mets GM Omar Minaya announced the signing, which is pending a physical.  Will he help?  A few projections:

Sheffield came up as a 20 year-old Brewers shortstop; he's now hanging on as a 40 year-old Mets platoon outfielder.  Sheffield was willing to waive his no-trade clause for the Mets way back in November of '97, when the Marlins had their fire sale (according to a Jon Heyman Newsday article).  He was eventually dealt to the Dodgers in May of '98.

2:33pm: SI.com's Jon Heyman says Sheffield agreed to sign with the Mets.  An announcement is expected this afternoon.

12:08pm: Sherman adds that Mets GM Omar Minaya spoke to Sheffield directly recently to explain how he'd fit with the team.  Meanwhile, several Phillies players have contacted Sheffield to lobby him to sign.

11:23am: According to Joel Sherman of the New York Post, the Mets are close to signing Gary Sheffield.  The Mets plan to give him significant playing time.  They'd only have to pay $400K and would consider Sheffield an option in both outfield corners.  Sherman's source said:

"Unless something drastic happens, he is a Met.  Someone would have to offer him a second year, and I just don't see that happening."

David Lennon of Newsday believes Sheffield could sign with the Mets as soon as tonight.

Odds & Ends: Opening Day Rosters

After the longest spring training in history, it felt like Opening Day might never arrive. As teams finalize their 25-man rosters, here are some notes from yesterday and today's headlines:

Phillies Set Their Roster

The Phillies added Miguel Cairo to the 25-man roster today, presumably ending the club's search for a right-handed reserve player.  David Murphy of the Philadelphia Inquirer has a short review of that hunt:

General manager Ruben Amaro Jr. has spent a lot of time looking for ways to upgrade the bench, particularly late in spring training. There was the highly-publicized flirtation with Gary Sheffield. There was the hope that Andruw Jones would fail to win a roster spot with the Rangers. Earlier in the offseason, there was an attempted wooing of Nomar Garciaparra.

But in the Phillies situation, it proved difficult to convince the type of player they hoped to attract to sign with the team. Sheffield, Garciaparra, Jones, Ty Wigginton — all signed with teams where the opportunity for playing time was far greater than the Phillies could guarantee.

Cairo, 34, hit .249/.316/.330 with 23 RBI in 221 at-bats for Seattle last season.  He hasn't gone yard in over 900 plate appearances, but should make for a versatile option in the infield.

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