Marlins Trade Rumors
The Fish might do some minor dealing in the coming days. Let’s see what they have cooking.
For one, Mike Berardino of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel thinks they should bring Armando Benitez back, now that he’s healthy. He says it would probably only cost the Marlins a million bucks in addition to the player(s) they trade. Benitez says he hasn’t been in shape like he is now since he played for the Orioles.
The Marlins may have their eye on a couple of Red Sox: center fielder David Murphy and pitcher Kyle Snyder. The Nationals also have interest in Snyder. Snyder, 29, hails from Florida for what that’s worth. He can probably post an ERA below 5 in the NL, so he belongs on someone’s roster. Murphy still has a chance to become a credible CF, especially if his new build adds a little power. Houston also likes Murphy.
Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post has another tidbit: though the Marlins scouted Jorge Julio, they’re not close to proposing a deal.
Finally, the Marlins have no interest in Javy Lopez but are drawing interest for outfielder Cody Ross.
Bonds May Shoot For 3,000 Hits
Yesterday, Barry Bonds distanced himself from his agent’s outlandish claims, seemingly crowning Alex Rodriguez as the one to watch for the career HR record. Even he realizes that 1,000 home runs is absurd.
Back on February 6th, Tom Verducci’s story had Bonds telling the Giants this winter, through his agent, that he wanted to play in 2008 and probably 2009 as well. Yesterday Bonds sounded more focused on playing this season and emerging healthy. A lot can happen between now and 2009.
The New York Times speculates that Bonds may stick around long enough to reach 3,000 hits. That would require him to play in 2008.
Red Sox Inquire On Armando Benitez
One trade tidbit I missed, assuming it was printed elsewhere: the Red Sox recently inquired about the availability of Giants closer Armando Benitez. As you know, the Marlins were interested earlier this winter.
According to John Shea, Benitez still needs a lot of work to improve his velocity and location (and his location was never that great). Not that Benitez is any great shakes, but I can’t see how the Giants think they have a surplus of relievers. They really don’t have anyone who can take care of the ninth inning; I wouldn’t be surprised to see Tim Lincecum closing by June.
As for the Red Sox, Benitez is the ninth sounds like a disaster in the making. Maybe no more so than Joel Pineiro, but I don’t see the point. I suppose it’d be a reasonable gamble if Boston only needed to cover his salary.
Vizquel Extension Up For Discussion
40 year-old shortstop Omar Vizquel would like to play in 2008 and 2009, so the Giants will meet with his agent today to talk extension. I wanted to get an idea of just how rare this type of thing is, so I finally checked out the Play Index tool over at Baseball-Reference. It is awesome.
How many guys in modern Major League history have played even 50 games in a season at shortstop at age 40 or older? The answer is four: Barry Larkin, Luke Appling, Ozzie Smith, and Honus Wagner. Appling and Wagner each had three such seasons. The latter three are already in the Hall of Fame, and Larkin stands a good chance. Of those eight seasons, only one involved an OPS below .720. Makes sense – you don’t last that long if you’re Mike Caruso. Although Mike’s 1998 season had us all fooled.
Then, since I was bored, I decided to find the best single-season qualifying ERA by a pitcher who weighed 250 or more pounds. Turned out to be Jeff D’Amico‘s 2000 season at 2.66. See, you learn something every day.
Alex Rodriguez And The Cubs
UPDATE: In a related story, Jon Heyman of SI.com lists a slew of teams that inquired about Rodriguez’s availability this winter: the Angels, Dodgers, White Sox, Cubs, Giants, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Indians. Heyman says the White Sox and Dodgers were the most persistent. None of the offers went anywhere given Rodriguez’s unwillingness to waive his no-trade clause.
Bob Raissman of the New York Daily News has an imposing mustache as well as some insight into Alex Rodriguez‘s next possible destination. The article involves Lou Piniella in his underwear as well as a lot of crying and one tender kiss. I found it touching.
Anyway, Raissman believes, based on an upcoming HBO interview with Rodriguez, that a reunion with Lou Piniella in Chicago would be a dream come true for him. Rodriguez responded to the idea thusly:
"He’s on a different team in a different league. My memories of Lou are in the present and the past, not the future."
This is not the first time Rodriguez has been connected to the Cubs. Last July, later confirmed by other sources, Bleed Cubbie Blue broke news of the team’s trading deadline interest.
I would imagine that Rodriguez would not play shortstop for the Cubs for the duration of his 5+ year contract. More likely to me: A-Rod plays shortstop for three seasons, through 2010. At that point, Derrek Lee‘s contract will be up and Aramis Ramirez might be ready to shift to first base. Ramirez is a Cub through 2011 or 2012.
Tim’s take – Chance of Alex Rodriguez signing with the Cubs in the ’07-’08 offseason: 15%.
Will Matt Cain Throw A No-Hitter?
Recently, I mentioned that a cool stat would be a pitcher’s percentage likelihood of throwing a no-hitter. Little did I know, Bill James devised this exact formula.
I plugged in Matt Cain‘s career numbers. His chances of throwing a no-hitter in any given start are 0.27%. Not too bad! Nolan Ryan‘s chances in any given start were 0.35%.
So after figuring that out it’s just a volume game. If Cain makes 100 career starts, we should expect 0.27 no-hitters. It follows that if he makes 364 career starts and maintains his hit rate, he should be expected to throw exactly one no-hitter. (Let’s not get into his hit rate worsening after his peak right now).
Can Cain make that many career starts? I honestly have no idea, but it seems reasonable on the surface (about 13 seasons). John Smoltz is his top comparable, and Smoltz is at 429 starts so far. However, a lot of promising young guys never sniff 300 career starts. Browsing Cain’s top ten comparables, only two have reached 300 (Smoltz and Andy Benes, although Josh Beckett has a shot).
Still, I think it’s fair to say that over the life of his new contract, it’s nearly a coin flip that Cain tosses a no-no.
Giants Sign Cain Long-Term
UPDATE: Cain did indeed settle for Lowry money. I guess he places a large price on security and certainty.
The Giants will announce later today that they have signed Matt Cain to a four-year contract with a fifth-year option.
We don’t know the details quite yet, but MLB.com’s Chris Haft theorizes that the contract will resemble Noah Lowry‘s – four years, $9.25MM with a $6.25MM option year. El Lefty Malo, a fine Giants blog, disagrees. They argue that Cain’s contract should be between that of Lowry’s and the projected earnings of Dontrelle Willis, who is not on a long-term deal. Throwing in some inflation, they arrive at a total package of five years and $26MM. We should know soon enough.
In 2006, Cain had five one-hit starts. One of them was a complete game gem. It’s got to be only a matter of time before this guy tosses a no-hitter. That’d be a cool Bill James stat – % likelihood of throwing a no-hitter.
Armando Benitez On The Block
The Giants are looking to trade 34 year-old reliever Armando Benitez, though he needs to prove he’s healthy first.
The Giants’ head trainer isn’t allowed to discuss the condition of Benitez’s knee, but he can tell us that Benitez’s attitude is just peachy. Helpful. We do know that Benitez will throw off a mound today for the first time since September. We also know that the team would like him to lose a few pounds.
Even with the inflated market for relievers, I can’t see the Giants drumming up much interest in Benitez. He’s not young. His control has always been poor, and his strikeout rate has been down in recent years. And he makes $7.6MM. The Giants should probably hang on to him and hope he gives them 35-40 helpful innings. They’d probably have to take on $5MM of his salary in a trade. Even then, a team like the Marlins might be better off using internal options.
Armando Benitez On The Block
The Giants are looking to trade 34 year-old reliever Armando Benitez, though he needs to prove he’s healthy first.
The Giants’ head trainer isn’t allowed to discuss the condition of Benitez’s knee, but he can tell us that Benitez’s attitude is just peachy. Helpful. We do know that Benitez will throw off a mound today for the first time since September. We also know that the team would like him to lose a few pounds.
Even with the inflated market for relievers, I can’t see the Giants drumming up much interest in Benitez. He’s not young. His control has always been poor, and his strikeout rate has been down in recent years. And he makes $7.6MM. The Giants should probably hang on to him and hope he gives them 35-40 helpful innings. They’d probably have to take on $5MM of his salary in a trade. Even then, a team like the Marlins might be better off using internal options.
Bonds To Play in ’08, ’09?
According to Tom Verducci of SI.com, Barry Bonds told the Giants this winter through his agent that he has no plans to retire after the ’07 season and probably won’t after the ’08 season either. He originally asked the Giants for an easily attainable option for ’08, but couldn’t get it.
Verducci says Bonds’s agent has raised the possibility of 1,000 home runs. Perhaps Bonds doesn’t like the idea of A-Rod coming along and wiping out his record?
But for Bonds to hit another 266 home runs after age 42…that seems ridiculous. He’s not going to do that in three seasons. Or four. Five is quite unlikely. Six, slightly possible if he is extremely healthy and effective. Seven, getting warmer but still questionable. How about 266 homers over eight seasons? He’d have to average 33.25. But honestly, to hit an additional 266 home runs, Bonds would have to play nine or ten more seasons. Maybe even eleven. Just saying is all. If Bonds is hitting 30+ HRs into his early fifties…I want some of what he’s taking.