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Edmonds Option To Be Declined?

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Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch has an informative look at how the Cardinals will reshape their team this winter. 

Aside from a major rotation makeover, there’s also the issue of Jim Edmonds’s $10MM option.  According to Strauss:

"The Cardinals are increasingly unlikely to assume Edmonds’ $10 million option for 2007, an issue complicated by the Gold Glove outfielder’s ongoing struggle with post-concussion syndrome, according to club sources."

I have a lot of faith in Strauss’s club sources, and this has definitely been the vibe lately.  Edmonds himself feels that it will be declined.

I know it’s been a disappointing year for Edmonds, but I have to get up on my soapbox again:  exercising his option is a no-brainer for the Cardinals.  They need a center fielder.  Edmonds is still well above average.  The decision to exercise the option is essentially the decision to give him a one year, $7MM deal (given the $3MM buyout price).  What team, in need of a center fielder, wouldn’t take Edmonds at that price and length? 

Teams do this all the time: they pass over the best option because he’s the in-house option.  No other good reason.  Kind of reminds me of when the Cubs let Moises Alou walk after 2004.  Say Edmonds had been a Yankee all his life, put up the exact same numbers, same contract, same post-concussion problems.  Brian Cashman inexplicably buys him out this winter.  Instead of testing the free agent waters, Edmonds tells Walt Jocketty he wants to be a Cardinal for one year, $7MM.  Is there any chance in hell Jocketty would turn that down?

The alternatives: throw Juan Encarnacion out there, or sign one of these guys.  I’m a big fan of the former option, because it rights the wrong that was signing Encarnacion to a three year, $15MM deal.  I wish the Cubs would do this with Jacque Jones.  A .776 OPS looks a lot better coming from CF than RF.  The only catch is that Jocketty would then need to sign Moises Alou, Jose Guillen, Trot Nixon, or Gary Sheffield for right field.  If that’s the solution, I’ll stop griping about Edmonds because that’s not bad at all.

2007 MLB Free Agents: Dave Roberts

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There’s been some chatter about Dave Roberts lately – he’ll be a coveted free agent this winter.  Back in July, I discussed Roberts in my center fielder free agent market review:

"Roberts, 34, is best known for his stolen base in the 2004 ALCS.  He’s solidly above average at hitting but is ranked just 30th on defense.  He’s got a weak arm but was a solid defender prior to 2005.  According to the Fielding Bible, Roberts still has his speed and range so he should bounce back defensively if healthy.  He’s been moved to left field to make an excellent pair with Mike Cameron.  If someone can snag him for $3-4 mil and get him 500 ABs, he’s a fine option.  It’s just that he has a lengthy injury history."

It just so happens that in his contract year, Roberts looks to set career highs in at-bats, batting average, and on-base percentage.  The Padres have enjoyed his .382 OBP mark (18th in the league) at the top of their order.  He’s also stolen bases at better than a 90% clip.  His $2.25MM salary is a bargain, and he’ll have plenty of suitors.

Tom Krasovic of the San Diego Union-Tribune recently mentioned that the White Sox and Cardinals are already showing some interest.  Rockies beat writer Troy E. Renck throws Colorado’s hat into the ring.

A few other possibilities: the Blue Jays could go after Roberts if they decide to trade Vernon Wells.  The Rangers could get involved if Gary Matthews Jr. departs.  Ditto for the Cubs if they don’t retain Juan Pierre.      

Cardinals Acquire Preston Wilson

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In a minor move this morning, the Cardinals acquired outfielder Preston Wilson.  The 32 year-old had been released by the Astros.

Wilson is expected to step in for Chris Duncan if the clock strikes midnight or for Jim Edmonds if this post-concussion thing persists.  Wilson at least has an OK ability to hit southpaws most years, whereas Edmonds has been slipping in ’06.  Still, Edmonds mashed them in ’05 and this year’s sample is only 95 at-bats.

The Astros released Wilson after his SLG plummeted to just .405 this season.  He slugged .443 in Washington last year and PECOTA projected .463 for ’06.  I know I thought he’d hit 30 home runs playing half his games in Minute Maid. 

2007 MLB Free Agents: Jim Edmonds

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Seems time to revisit the situation of St. Louis center field stalwart Jim Edmonds.  You may recall a month ago, when I remarked:

"Edmonds has a $10MM option for ’07 with a $3MM buyout, so the Cards really just need to decide if Edmonds is worth $7MM in his age 37 season.  Baseball Prospectus says he is, even if he only gets 515 plate appearances as projected.  Even on the decline Edmonds is a powerful force in the lineup.  However, the Fielding Bible ranks him just 32nd out of 35 center fielders over the last three years.  They say that despite the excellent arm, he’s "lost a step" and did not deserve his last two Gold Gloves.  Still seems wise for the Cards to keep him around if they can limit the years on the deal."

If Torii Hunter hits the market, he’d be the top free agent CF.  Otherwise, plenty of decent second tier options like Kenny Lofton, Dave Roberts, and Gary Matthews Jr. should be floating around.  Edmonds may be the best out there other than Hunter.  It would be silly for the Cardinals not to choose Edmonds’s $3MM buyout over his $10MM option.  How many teams would turn down a chance to have Edmonds on a one-year, $7MM deal?  That’s what Walt Jocketty faces.

Nonetheless, Edmonds is getting the vibe that the Cards will choose the buyout.  Who’s Jocketty going to bring in instead?  Roberts or Lofton for a few million less?  Even on the decline, Edmonds can still contribute an .825 OPS for 130 games.  That’s much better than the average NL CF, who has an OPS of .750 or so.

Viva El Birdos: Cardinals Acquire Jorge Sosa

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You might have a hard time getting over there, as SB Nation’s servers have been overwhelmed.  But the Cardinals blog Viva El Birdos reports that the Cards have acquired pitcher Jorge Sosa for Triple A reliever Rich Scalamandre.

Sosa’s progression this year was as follows.  First, he signed a $2.2MM deal with the Braves in January after posting a very flukey 2.55 ERA in 134 innings.  Then Sosa pitched for the Dominican Republic in the World Baseball Classic as a reliever in March.  The Braves decided to begin the season with Sosa as their #4 starter and John Thomson in the pen.  By late June, Sosa was moved to the bullpen due to his poor pitching.  After mercifully removing him from the rotation, Bobby Cox decided to make Sosa the closer.  By the middle of the month Sosa lost his job to Ken Ray; he was demoted yesterday. 

Scalamandre, 25, was promoted to Triple A on June 21st and has been OK in 19 innings.

Carroll: Marquis For Heilman?

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Fueled by pierogis, time to write up another rumor before I hit the hay.  Monday should be good times.

According to Will Carroll this evening, the Mets and Cardinals are talking about an Aaron Heilman for Jason Marquis swap. Most Mets fans seem up in arms at the possibility.

After all, Marquis will be a free agent after this season and currently sports a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. "But wait!" you’re saying.  "What about those times Tony La Russa sacrificed his ERA to save the bullpen?"  Alright, alright, let’s take those out (which is more than a tad generous).  Removing Marquis’s 12 and 13 earned run starts, he’s got a 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP.  That actually makes Marquis look like an above average pitcher.  Indeed, he is a pretty solid back of the rotation guy.

Heilman has stumbled a bit this season, posting a 4.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 58 innings of relief.  He’s actually improved upon his control a bit, but his strikeout rate is down significantly and his hit rate is subsequently way up.  It’d be interesting to see what a Dave Duncan or Don Cooper could do with him.  Could he be worked back into a starting role?  It’s not out of the question but success as a starter is no slam dunk.  Just ask Ryan Madson. 

Rosenthal: Belliard To Cards

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Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Cardinals will acquire Ron Belliard from the Indians sometime soon.  Belliard went 2 for 4 in today’s game against Seattle.  Will Carroll is reporting that Hector Luna would go to the Tribe.

Belliard, a 31 year-old second baseman, was hitting .289/.335/.419 entering today’s game.  He’s been consistently solid since becoming a regular in 2003.  The second base class plays at a higher level in the NL; league average is .276/.341/.424.  Belliard is also middle of the pack as far as defense, but he will make a skilled double play partner for David Eckstein.  Belliard, an impending free agent, makes $4MM this year.

Belliard represents a clear upgrade over Aaron Miles, though I’m not sure that he’s signficantly better than Hector Luna.  Luna, a 26 year-old, has a career line of .276/.336/.398 in 533 ABs.  The versatile Luna has played every position but catcher in his Cardinal career.  Walt Jocketty got him as a Rule 5 pick in 2002.

Based on yesterday’s update from Bernie Miklasz, the Cardinals seem content to tinker rather than make an impact trade.

Bernie Miklasz Gives Cards Update

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Bernie Miklasz, the fine columnist for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, has a message board with the newspaper called Bernie’s Pressbox.  Miklasz dropped by Saturday night to provide an update on all sorts of Cardinals trade rumors.  Here’s a quick summary.

Starting pitchers on the radar: Jon Lieber, Kip Wells, and Dontrelle Willis.

Relievers: Rheal Cormier, Mike Gonzalez, Salomon Torres.

Outfielders: Shawn Green, Jeff Conine.

Infielders: Mark Loretta, Ron Belliard.

Pirates GM Dave Littlefield has gotten a lot of criticism for his asking prices and unwillingness to trade certain players.  I think he could redeem himself by dealing Mike Gonzalez.  Gonzalez is 28, left-handed, and has posted an ERA under 3 since 2004 despite a walk problem for the last two years.  He’s not getting any more valuable than he is now, and he probably won’t be effective by the time the Pirates are competitive again.  Sell high, Dave.  No one wants Jeromy Burnitz.

Olney: Cards Interested In Shawn Green

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In his blog this morning, Buster Olney mentioned that he’d heard that Shawn Green might be a match with the Cardinals.  I think there had been rumblings to this effect, but haven’t seen much in print until now.

At .296/.354/.447 this season, Green falls below league average in the NL (.277/.360/.477).  Still, he’s pretty close and represents an improvement from what the Cards have thrown in left field this season.  On the other hand, Green may not represent any improvement over John Rodriguez or Chris Duncan. 

All of this would be moot if Green won’t waive his no-trade clause to come to St. Louis.  Perhaps as an incentive Green would require his new team to guarantee his $10MM option for 2008.  Regardless, he’ll make $9.5MM next year in his age 34 season.  Yikes – certainly doesn’t sound like Jocketty’s style.  Various Phillies’ outfielders may also be in play.

The Cards are fifth in the league in OPS and seventh in ERA.  They would benefit from an upgrade on either side of the ball, but Green probably isn’t an upgrade.  According to Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch, the Cards may make one last bid for Dontrelle Willis.  That would be an upgrade.

Trade Rumor Roundup: 9 Days Left

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Let’s see what we’ve got this morning in the non-Hillenbrand department…

This is cool: a commenter over at Viva El Birdos emailed Dontrelle Willis’s agent, Matt Sosnick, asking about the latest trade rumor.  Meanwhile, Jayson Stark was adamant in his chat Friday that Willis will not be traded.

Enough with the Mike Lowell for Jake Peavy rumors, folks.  No. Freakin’. Way.  I know Buster Olney mentioned that Boston must’ve been targeting a notable pitcher given how well Lowell has played this year (.297/.349/.504) but Peavy isn’t going anywhere.  Plus, if you adjust Lowell’s production for PETCO Park it would be pretty close to league average for his position.

Could Mike Pelfrey be traded as a player to be named later?  The answer seems to be Yes, if named in January, and only if sent to an AL team.  MetsBlog tries to decipher MLB’s rules.  Of course, Pelfrey is not going to be traded.  But it’s good to know.

Gut feeling…I think the Brewers will trade Carlos Lee.  Doug Melvin is preparing for a deal, and I think this is an opportunity he can’t pass up.

What’s with the Indians picture next to George Kottaras?

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