- Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips is playing through a hairline fracture in his hand, Zack Buchanan of Cincinnati Enquirer reports on Twitter. For now, at least, it’s just a question whether he can deal with the pain, though even a low-lying issue could throw a wrench into any trade possibilities. (Phillips’ no-trade clause still appears to be the biggest barrier to a deal.)
Reds Rumors
Reds Notes: Bruce, Price, Peraza, Phillips
Among the clubs looking at Reds outfielder Jay Bruce are the Dodgers and Nationals, both of whom have been tied previously to the slugger, as Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes. (Rosenthal previously reported those connections here and here.) Neither of those organizations has a critical need for an outfielder, though it’s possible to imagine both looking to add some thump to their lineups. Of course, those are likely to face competition for the revived veteran from other quarters. Bruce holds the top spot in MLBTR’s top twenty trade candidates list as he continues to put up monster offensive numbers.
- Reds manager Bryan Price isn’t at risk of dismissal, president of baseball operations Walt Jocketty tells Rosenthal. Price says that the removal of pitching coach Mark Riggins was done as part of an effort to add “a different perspective, different approach” to address the club’s pitching woes.
- Rosenthal also notes that the Reds could conceivably look to give youngster Jose Peraza more time at second while reducing the role of veteran Brandon Phillips, who has struggled at the plate. Jocketty acknowledges that Peraza’s current super-utility role is “not the most ideal way to develop a guy,” but says “that’s what [the Reds] have” at present. Rosenthal wonders whether the organization could re-approach Phillips about waiving his no-trade clause, which he has been unwilling to do thus far, though Jocketty says the organization isn’t considering that at the moment. Generally, Jocketty says that trade chatter still isn’t “that active right now.”
Reds Dismiss Pitching Coach Mark Riggins
- The Reds have dismissed pitching coach Mark Riggins, as per a club announcement. Bullpen coach Mack Jenkins will take over the job, with Triple-A pitching coach Ted Power moving up to replace Jenkins in the pen. Cincinnati is at or near the bottom of every notable pitching category this season, and their pitching as a whole has been worth a cumulative -3.9 fWAR. This was Riggins’ first season as the Reds’ pitching coach after four years as the organization’s minor league pitching coordinator, and he hardly came into a comfortable situation — not only were the rebuilding Reds going with a young rotation, but injuries hit nearly every member of the staff.
Reds To Sign Alfredo Rodriguez
MONDAY: The Reds have officially announced the minor league deal, as per the club’s Twitter page.
SATURDAY: The Reds have agreed to terms with Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez on a $7MM deal, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez writes. Rodriguez is a strong defensive shortstop with good speed, as Sanchez notes. He was the 2014-15 Rookie of the Year in Cuba’s Serie Nacional.
Rodriguez ranked sixth on MLB.com’s list of the top international prospects available this signing period. He has excellent speed and range. He doesn’t yet hit well, although MLB.com notes there is some hope his bat will develop.
Despite Rodriguez’s pro experience, he is subject to rules regarding international bonus pools, so his $7MM bonus represents a significant financial outlay for the Reds, who have a bonus pool of $5,163,400 and currently project to be penalized as the result of the signing, although they could trade for more international bonus slots to avoid any serious punitive measure. The Reds have long been connected to Rodriguez, with some reports indicating they had a deal with him all the way back in January, in the previous signing period.
Raisel Iglesias On Bullpen Role
- While Raisel Iglesias’ shoulder injury-forced shift to the Reds’ bullpen could hurt his earning power in the long run, the 26-year-old told Mark Sheldon of MLB.com that he’s enjoying his new role. “I feel really good coming out of the bullpen,” the righty said through an interpreter. “I’ve got my routine now. Coming out of the bullpen is something I did when I was in Cuba.” Iglesias has been a breath of fresh air in relief for the Reds, whose bullpen is the majors’ worst. In 7 1/3 innings and four appearances since returning from a nearly two-month disabled list stint June 21, Iglesias has yielded just one run on three hits and three walks.
Nationals Could Have Interest In Jay Bruce
In an ideal world, the Nationals would like to acquire a right-handed hitter before the Aug. 1 trade deadline, but they’re considering pursuing Reds left-handed slugger Jay Bruce, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (video links). Bruce, who has hit .275/.319/.557 with 17 home runs in 313 plate appearances this year, could be a possibility in the outfield or at first base for the Nationals – to whom he can’t block a trade. Bruce is also familiar with Nationals manager Dusty Baker from the skipper’s time in Cincinnati, notes Rosenthal, who adds that the team recalling highly touted prospect Trea Turner to play center field is also an option.
Jay Bruce Willing To Waive No-Trade Clause In Deal To Contender
Reds outfielder Jay Bruce has a limited no-trade clause, but doesn’t intend to use that to hold up a deal to a contending club this summer, MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Bruce sits at the top overall spot on MLBTR’s most recent top trade candidates list.
The NTC would let Bruce reject deals to the Yankees, Red Sox, Athletics, Rays, Marlins, Twins, Indians and Diamondbacks. Jon Heyman of todaysknuckleball.com repored earlier today that Bruce would quite likely be willing to go to Cleveland, and it appears that he’d also be amenable to other hypothetical landing spots. Rumblings have connected Bruce to a variety of clubs, including the Dodgers, Giants, White Sox, and Royals since the start of the season.
Bruce, 29, tells Sheldon that he’s willing to “consider waiving the no-trade clause for all types of reasons,” with “no blanket reason I wouldn’t.” The veteran said he’d need to take each situation as it comes, with agent Matt Sosnick saying that such a choice has yet to be brought to their attention.
Bruce continued on to emphasize that he’d be quite interested in an opportunity to join an organization that has designs on contending. “If I am moved, which has seemed likely for the last year and a half, I’d like to go where the team is mostly likely to win,” he said. “Teams that want me are likely seeking somebody to help them win.”
Notably, Sosnick suggested that Bruce won’t necessarily be looking to utilize the clause for leverage with regard to his contract. “We’re not setting in stone any financial qualifiers,” he said. “If the deal is good for Jay and good for the Reds, he would consider anything — including waiving the no-trade. … There is no team that he would unequivocally not go to.”
Bruce has increasingly cemented his status as a premium trade piece, as he is once again hitting like the All-Star-caliber player he was from 2011 through 2013. The two intervening seasons are easier and easier to forget, as he carries a .279/.325/.568 slash with 17 home runs and a league-leading six triples into July. Bruce’s early-career extension is another asset: he’s earning $12.5MM this year and can be controlled for $13MM in 2017, which is particularly appealing with a dearth of young sluggers on the upcoming free agent market.
International Notes: July 2 Preview, Maitan, Braves, Padres
Baseball America’s Ben Badler has compiled scouting reports on the Top 50 prospects on the upcoming July 2 international market, in addition to providing projected landing spots for each player on the list. The exhaustive report on the international scene requires a BA subscription, but it’s highly recommended for those who wish to dive headfirst into learning about the upcoming glut of talent that will be injected into most clubs’ minor league pipelines. Those looking to learn more about the process can also check out this primer from Eric Longenhagen of Fangraphs, who also provides a ranking of the class (with further explanation here).
Here are just a few highlights from Badler’s excellent work on the topic, which deserves a full read:
- Badler takes a particularly close look at top prospect Kevin Maitan, who he says may be a better prospect than Miguel Sano was as a teenager. The link comes with a lengthy and detailed scouting report, including discussion of the question whether Maitain will be able to stay at shortstop for the long run. Scouts are divided on the likelihood, but all seem to agree it’s at least a plausible outcome.
- Maitan has long been said to be heading for the Braves, and we’ve yet to hear anything to change that expectation. Atlanta has lined up a big batch of spending, but Badler provides a bit of context for just how large: he says it “should look comparable to what the Yankees did in 2014-15.” (You can refresh yourself on New York’s shock and awe campaign here.)
- The Padres appear headed in that direction, too, as Badler says that a $30MM to $35MM spend might be their floor. In addition to big activity on the Cuban market, San Diego is in line to add eight of the top fifty available players. As for the Nationals, who are also believed to be pacing the market in spending, it might not be quite that dramatic. But Washington could still come away with three of the fifteen best prospecs on the market.
- The Astros, too, seem ready to drop some big cash — including a $3.5MM bonus for Cuban shortstop Anibal Sierra. Houston is eyeing five of the top fifty names on Badler’s list, he notes. One player that could be ticketed for the ’Stros is fifth overall prospect Freudis Nova.
- Nova had been connected to the Marlins before failing a PED test. Now, Badler explains, Miami has a big chunk of pool availability and little in the way of commitments. The club could deal that away or see if it can find a nice price on the Cuban market.
- It also remains to be seen what the Reds will do, but Badler explains that things could go in either of two directions. Cinci could trade for some added bonus pool space to add Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez and a few smaller signings without hitting the penalty. Or, the team could enter the broader Cuban market and blow past its limits.
- The White Sox are expected to land slugging prospect Josue Guerrero — who, yes, is a part of the famous family. Despite being quiet in recent years, the Athletics are in position to add some talent, including George Bell, whose father (same name) was a quality big leaguer.
- The Brewers aren’t believed to have any seven-figure bonuses lined up, but could still add a high number of interesting players with the fifth-highest spending availability in the game. Likewise, the Phillies are expected to spread their cash.
- Of course, not every team will have the opportunity to spend lavishly this period; the Dodgers, Yankees, Cubs, D-backs, Angels, Rays, Red Sox, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays are each prohibited from spending more than $300K on international amateurs after incurring maximum penalties, though that doesn’t mean those organizations don’t have a chance to find some talent.
Billy Hamilton Going Through Concussion Protocol
- Billy Hamilton was removed from the Reds game against today after he was struck in the face by a ball off the bat of Anthony Rizzo that deflected off the glove of left fielder Adam Duvall (video link). Hamilton was down for several minutes but ultimately walked to the Reds’ bullpen with the team’s training staff but under his own power. Tyler Holt replaced Hamilton in center field, and there’s been no update from the team at this time, but one would imagine that Hamilton will undergo testing for concussion symptoms following an injury of that nature.
Looking For A Match In A Zack Cozart Trade
At thirty years of age, Zack Cozart has fully hit his stride as a ballplayer. Yet because of his early-career struggles at the plate and an ill-timed knee surgery last year, he’s earning just under $3MM this season with one more arbitration-eligible campaign to come. That makes him an interesting and affordable trade piece for the Reds.
A deal is far from a fait accompli, but seems increasingly likely as the market develops. Still, Cincinnati could certainly justify holding onto him if a fair offer isn’t forthcoming. As I recently noted in ranking Cozart among the game’s top fifteen trade candidates, though, he will quite likely be the best shortstop available. Particularly since he was kind enough to acknowledge his MLBTR readership recently, we thought it made sense to take a look at where he could end up playing next.
Cozart began turning heads last year, when he came out of the gates with a strong .258/.310/.459 batting line and nine home runs over 214 plate appearances. Then came his hard-to-watch injury, which occurred as he hustled to leg out a grounder and landed awkwardly on first base. That not only sapped Cozart’s arb earning power, but put a halt to his efforts to prove that he had really turned a corner at the plate. After being installed as Cincinnati’s regular shortstop in 2012, he managed only a .241/.280/.362 batting line over 1,761 trips to the plate in the next three years. He did show some pop, with 31 total home runs, but the bat looked marginal.
Thus far in 2016, Cozart has put both the injury and those past struggles in the rearview mirror. He has maintained and even improved upon his offensive production from last year, slashing .273/.316/.486 over the first 275 plate appearances of the season. Cozart is making hard contact (32.9%) and spraying line drives (23.4%) at career-best rates, and he’s continuing to bang long balls on about 13% of the flyballs he hits. He has actually been better on the road than at Great American Ballpark and isn’t benefiting from an inflated BABIP.
If you want to take the optimistic side, Cozart’s development looks somewhat similar to that of Brandon Crawford. As in the case of the Giants’ $75MM man, Cozart has never faced questions with the glove. In fact, Cozart has been among the most valuable defenders in all of baseball, delivering more or less equivalent value to Crawford. Just check out this UZR-based leaderboard from 2012-16 and whistle with surprise and admiration.
With solid baserunning mixed in, Cozart is and always has been a fairly high-floor player. That’s why he managed to play at about a two-WAR clip even when he was sagging on offense. Mix in an average or better bat, though, and you’re suddenly looking at a guy who has already compiled two wins in just 67 games. With the cheap salary and bonus year added in, that’s a pretty appealing trade piece.
There’s little question that the Reds front office believed Cozart would ultimately deliver this kind of productivity; he has been an everyday player since 2012. But Cincinnati may not be well-positioned to enjoy the fruits of its patience. The club isn’t expected to contend before Cozart hits free agency after the 2017 season, and an extension doesn’t seem particularly wise given his age and the team’s ongoing efforts to trim obligations and manage some long-term contracts that haven’t panned out. Plus, the organization has a pair of intriguing young infielders at the major league level — Eugenio Suarez and Jose Peraza — who could step in at short.
All sounds good so far … but truth be told, there isn’t a really evident match on paper. There are a few contenders whose shortstops have scuffled thus far, to be sure. And some other clubs have needs around the infield that could conceivably be met by adding Cozart. But it’s tough to find any specific team that is likely to feel extremely motivated to add a new face at short.
Let’s take a closer look:
Royals: K.C. just hasn’t received much of anything from Alcides Escobar, who has followed up on a poor offensive 2015 with an even worse start to the current campaign (56 wRC+) while drawing negative defensive metrics. Meanwhile, holes opened at both second and third; while they’ve been plugged admirably by Whit Merrifield and Cheslor Cuthbert, it’s not clear that either will be up to the task of regular duty for the long haul. It’s possible to imagine Cozart being utilized in any number of ways by the resourceful Royals.
Mariners: Seattle hoped that Ketel Marte would be ready for a regular role this year, but he’s struggled to a .278/.305/.363 batting line and hasn’t drawn rave reviews from defensive metrics with the glove. The team traded away a one-time option, Chris Taylor, and hasn’t received much at all from reserves Shawn O’Malley and Luis Sardinas. Installing Cozart could allow the M’s to turn Marte into a super-utility player who could see time all over the infield and outfield.
White Sox: Highly-regarded prospect Tim Anderson has been a league-average hitter over his first 74 plate appearances, but there are some red flags mixed in. He has yet to draw a walk, is striking out in about a third of his plate appearances, and is benefiting from a .370 BABIP. Ultimately, his current productivity is dependent upon a .219 ISO that would dwarf anything he has done in the minors. While Chicago may not want to burn resources and may be glad to roll the dice on Anderson’s talent, the fear of regression is real. It’s worth noting, too, that second baseman Brett Lawrie has cooled off considerably since his hot start.
Mets: Yes, the club just added Jose Reyes to provide an option with David Wright possibly down for the count in 2016. But that move didn’t come with any financial risk. And Reyes looked like a shell of his former self last year before sitting out the first half of this season. Then, there’s the fact that Asdrubal Cabrera has never had good range at shortstop. Adding Cozart up the middle while bumping Cabrera to third could represent a huge defensive upgrade.
Giants: San Francisco is set at short with the aforementioned Crawford and has quality young options at second (Joe Panik) and third (Matt Duffy). But Duffy is currently out and the organization is rumored to have looked at Yunel Escobar. Cozart would represent a similar addition in terms of his cost now and in 2017, and he’s probably the better player at this point. Of course, adding an infielder never seemed like the most pressing need in the first place.
Astros: Hear me out! Most agree that Carlos Correa is not a great defensive shortstop; moving him to third has long been discussed as a possibility. Adding Cozart and bumping Correa to third would essentially be another way of addressing the team’s questions at the hot corner. Top prospect Alex Bregman is streaking toward the majors, of course, but the team might not want to rush up the 2015 draftee or rely on him too heavily right out of the gates. I’ll admit it’s a long-shot, but it could be an interesting fit.
Marlins: We’ve long heard how enamored Miami is of Adeiny Hechavarria, and he’s highly valued for his glove, but he’s one of the team’s few regulars that isn’t hitting for the club. Cozart would also make a great platoon mate for Derek Dietrich at second, and could spell Martin Prado at third. With Dee Gordon’s return nearing, though, Cozart would likely only make sense if the club decides it’s time to replace Hech. Pitching seems a much higher priority for the Fish.
Tigers: This situation looks much like that of the Marlins. Jose Iglesias remains a fantastic fielder, but he’s now hitting .255/.314/.332 on the year. Plus, Nick Castellanos is a marginal defender at third and is carrying a sub-.700 OPS in June. Cozart could bump Castellanos to the outfield while J.D. Martinez is out and then be utilized in a variety of ways — including, conceivably, as the regular shortstop — down the stretch.
Orioles: Cozart doesn’t look all that dissimilar from a younger version of J.J. Hardy, who is now nearing 34 years of age. Hardy’s always-questionable on-base abilities have faded yet further in the last two years, and he last hit double-digit home runs in 2013. It’s not entirely inconceivable that Baltimore could seek his replacement in Cozart, though the elder player remains a top-quality defender. That scenario would begin to look more plausible if Hardy suffers another injury or can’t pick up the pace he has set since returning on June 18th (.257/.257/.314).
Others: We’re really starting to wade into implausible territory the further we get down the list here, but there are some other teams who could match if you squint. The Red Sox have 99 problems and shortstop ain’t one, but adding Cozart to the mix would open up some platoon opportunities at first and third, give the team a highly-capable fill-in at the middle infield, and/or open up the possibility of utilizing Travis Shaw in left. And the Rays could conceivably send Cinci a useful arm in order to improve its shortstop situation at a reasonable price — with an eye on 2017. You could make a case that the Indians could improve upon Juan Uribe, who isn’t hitting much but still defends like a champ. But even then, they’d probably be better suited adding an outfielder and deploying Jose Ramirez at the hot corner. The Dodgers always seem to find a way to add another infielder, though admittedly it’s difficult to see in this case; the Yankees would probably prefer to have better production from second and third, though that’s a tough fit.
In the aggregate, the demand side of the equation isn’t terribly robust. The real question, perhaps, is whether one or more contender will come up with a really significant need between now and the deadline. In the event of an injury or steep performance decline from one or more shortstops, the Reds could be left holding a critical piece of the trade deadline puzzle.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
