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Guardians, Adam Oller Agree To Minor League Deal

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The Guardians have agreed to a minor league contract with right-hander Adam Oller, reports Ari Alexander of Houston’s KPRC-2. The Gaeta Sports client will receive an invitation to Major League spring training and reunite with former teammate and new Cleveland skipper Stephen Vogt with this deal.

Oller, 29, was traded from the Mets to the A’s alongside prospect J.T. Ginn in the 2021-22 offseason trade that sent Chris Bassitt from Oakland to Queens. He spent parts of two seasons with the A’s and logged 94 innings between their rotation and bullpen, but Oller was hit hard in that time. Big league opponents turned in a .294/.378/.556 batting line against Oller in spite of his pitcher-friendly home environs, and by the time Oakland designated him for assignment, he’d been roughed up for a 7.09 ERA. The right-hander has fanned 13.5% of his opponents against an 11.6% walk rate.

Major League struggles notwithstanding, Oller was sharp at the Triple-A level both in 2021 with the Mets (2.45 ERA in 44 innings) and in 2022 with the A’s (3.69 ERA in 31 1/3 innings). He struggled with the top affiliates of both the A’s and Mariners (who claimed him from Oakland) during the most recent campaign, but Oller’s overall minor league track record has the look of a potential depth starter or swingman if he can shake off a tough ’23 campaign.

The Guardians’ pitching staff experienced an enormous amount of turnover in 2023, but Cleveland’s nearly unrivaled ability to churn out quality arms remained on display. A series of injuries and poor performances led the Guards to call up top prospects Tanner Bibee, Logan Allen and Gavin Williams for each pitcher’s big league debut, and all three hit the ground running. That trio looks like the focal point of the rotation moving forward.

Cleveland surely hopes that impressive young righty Triston McKenzie will be back to full strength to join them after a teres major strain and a UCL sprain shortened his season. Former AL Cy Young winner Shane Bieber has another year of club control remaining, but he was limited by injuries as well and has been floated as a potential offseason trade candidate with just one year to go before he reaches the open market. Cal Quantrill, who struggled immensely in 2023, is also still under club control, while depth options like Xzavion Curry, Joey Cantillo and Hunter Gaddis are all on the 40-man roster, too.

Guardians Designate Cam Gallagher For Assignment

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The Guardians announced that right-hander Tanner Bibee was activated from the 60-day injured list, a procedural move since there’s no IL from today until Spring Training. To open a 40-man spot for him, catcher Cam Gallagher was designated for assignment.

Gallagher looked like a non-tender candidate entering the offseason. After signing last offseason, the right-handed hitter ran a .126/.154/.168 line across 149 plate appearances as a backup catcher. Even with a modest projected arbitration salary of $1.3MM, the complete lack of offense made it difficult for Cleveland to keep him on the MLB roster.

It became clear they’d move on once they claimed Christian Bethancourt from the Rays this afternoon. The Guards will now have a week to trade Gallagher or put him on waivers. Assuming he goes unclaimed, he’ll become a free agent.

Guardians Claim Christian Bethancourt From Rays

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The Guardians have claimed catcher Christian Bethancourt from the Rays, reports Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times. The latter club had placed the backstop on waivers over the weekend. Cleveland has yet to officially announce the move.

This ends Bethancourt’s tenure with the Rays, which began a little before the 2022 trade deadline. Tampa Bay acquired the right-handed hitter in a deal with Oakland, sending a pair of minor leaguers to the A’s. The Panamanian catcher owned a .249/.298/.385 line with the A’s and provided similar production down the stretch in St. Pete, hitting .255/.265/.436 over 45 games.

That was enough to hold his roster spot into 2023. Bethancourt’s low on-base numbers became more of a problem this past season. Over 332 trips to the plate, he hit .225/.254/.381. The one-time top prospect connected on 11 home runs but walked at a 3.9% clip while striking out 27.4% of the time. His strikeout rate was pushing 30% in the second half, contributing to Tampa Bay’s decision to give an increasing share of the reps to René Pinto.

Once the season came to a close, it became apparent Bethancourt would no longer be in the Rays’ plans. He was projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz for a $2.3MM salary if tendered a contract. While that’s not an outlandish figure, the Rays have a huge arbitration class and intended to look for a catching upgrade. Rather than wait until the non-tender deadline, they placed him on waivers a few weeks early.

Cleveland’s decision to place a claim indicates they’re likely to tender Bethancourt at that price. The Guardians have lefty-hitting Bo Naylor as their #1 option. Cleveland didn’t get much out of Cam Gallagher this year, though, making him a non-tender candidate. Bethancourt could take on the backup role as a righty-swinging complement to Naylor. Statcast pegs him as a below-average framer and blocker but credits him with excellent arm strength, a plus he has had dating back to his prospect days.

Bethancourt has between four and five years of service. He’d therefore be eligible for arbitration again next offseason if he holds his roster spot all year.

Guardians Hire Stephen Vogt As Manager

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The Guardians have their next manager. Cleveland announced the hiring of longtime MLB catcher Stephen Vogt on Monday afternoon. It’s reportedly a three-year contract running through the 2026 season.

Vogt, who recently celebrated his 39th birthday, made his big league debut for the Rays in 2012. He went on to play for five more organizations over his ten seasons in the majors, including six years with the A’s. During his time in Oakland, Vogt slashed .246/.308/.406 good for a roughly league average wRC+ of 98 and was named an All Star in both 2015 and 2016. He also played for the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Giants, and Braves throughout his big league career. Upon retiring from playing following the 2022 season, Vogt was hired by the Mariners to act as a bullpen and quality control coach in Seattle.

Vogt will now step into the shoes of the recently-retired Terry Francona as Guardians manager. It’s a remarkable achievement for the former catcher, who moves into the role just one year removed from his time as a player. As quick an ascent to the managerial chair as Vogt has had, it’s hardly an unexpected one. Vogt publicly voiced his managerial aspirations while he was still a player back in 2020, and he has long been regarded as up to the task among those in the game. Bob Melvin, who managed Vogt in Oakland and has since moved from the Padres to the Giants, noted even as Vogt was first retiring from professional play that his long-time player “definitely has a future in managing” while adding that his value in the clubhouse during his playing career was “immeasurable.”

Such a strong endorsement from a well-respect big league manager surely gives the Guardians assurance that he’ll be able to lead their roster into an uncertain 2024 campaign. After making a surprise run to the playoffs in 2022, Cleveland faced regression from many of their young players and injuries to key members of their pitching staff as they wound up finishing third in a weak AL Central with a 76-86 record. As the club looks to rebound next season, president of baseball operations Chris Antonetti was particularly effusive in his praise of the longtime catcher in a statement today.

“We’re thrilled to welcome Stephen and his family to Northeast Ohio and to name him the next manager of the Cleveland Guardians,” Antonetti said in the statement, “Stephen earned a reputation as one of the best teammates in the game across his 16-year career as a player, and we’ve greatly enjoyed the opportunity to get to know him over the past several weeks. Stephen has thought critically about the type of leader and manager he wants to be. His deep care for others, his ability to build meaningful relationships with those around him, and his open-mindedness and curiosity make him an ideal fit to lead our club moving forward. We couldn’t be more excited to partner with Stephen.”

While the Guardians are clearly pleased to have Vogt in the fold, it’s worth noting that all indications have pointed to longtime Brewers manager Craig Counsell as the club’s top choice for the role. Counsell is a free agent for the first time since becoming Milwaukee’s manager midway through the 2015 campaign, and has received considerable interest from each of the Guardians, Mets, and Brewers already this offseason. While the thinking throughout the game has largely been that the Guardians were a distant third among the three in terms of likelihood to land Counsell, a Wisconsin native who had a strong working relationship with new Mets president of baseball operations David Stearns during their time in Milwaukee, Jon Heyman of the New York Post makes clear that Cleveland’s interest in Counsell was real, noting that the club made a “serious, sincere run” at hiring the 53-year-old.

Beyond the possibility of hiring Counsell, it seems that Cleveland’s preference in replacing Francona may have been a rookie manager. Setting aside Counsell, it seems that Yankee bench coach Carlos Mendoza was the runner-up for Cleveland’s managerial gig. The 43-year-old was reportedly a favorite for the role along with Vogt in the event that Counsell declined, and has also received interest from a variety of clubs with managerial vacancies this offseason including the Mets and Padres.

Paul Hoynes of Cleveland.com first reported the Guardians were hiring Vogt. Jeff Passan of ESPN reported it would be a three-year deal.

Stephen Vogt, Carlos Mendoza "Favorites" For Guardians Job If Craig Counsell Declines

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That’s not necessarily a completely far-fetched scenario, however. After all, Counsell seems likely to have his pick between the Mets, Guardians, and the incumbent Brewers, all of whom appear to be prioritizing Counsell as their top option to lead their club in the dugout next year. It’s unclear where Counsell will ultimately land, reports have indicated that Counsell will at least offer Milwaukee a chance to match whatever salary offer he receives from New York and Cleveland. If Counsell does wind up returning to Milwuakee, Paul Hoynes of cleveland.com relayed recently that the favorites for the job with the Guardians would then be Mendoza and Mariners coach Stephen Vogt.

That creates at least the possibility of a situation where the Brewers retain Counsell while the Guardians land Mendoza, leaving the Mets unsure about who their next manager will be. Cubs bench coach and former Padres manager Andy Green as well as current A’s manager Mark Kotsay have both been noted as possible candidates for the manager job in New York in the past, and the Mets are known to be searching for an external candidate, specifically.

Guardians Select Johnathan Rodriguez

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The Guardians announced they’ve selected outfielder Johnathan Rodriguez onto the 40-man roster. He lands a spot for the first time in his career.

Cleveland selected Rodriguez in the third round of the 2017 draft. A right-handed hitter out of Puerto Rico, Rodriguez moved slowly through the minors. He spent his first four-plus seasons at various rookie or A-ball levels. He reached Double-A late in 2022, struggling in his first 28 games there.

Rodriguez unsurprisingly went unselected in last winter’s Rule 5 draft. He put himself on the radar for a 40-man spot with a breakout year in his first full season at the upper levels. Rodriguez spent the bulk of the season at Double-A Akron, hitting .289/.364/.512 in 88 games. He continued that pace after a bump to Triple-A Columbus, where he ran a .280/.376/.560 slash. Overall, the 23-year-old (24 tomorrow) hit .286/.368/.529 with 29 home runs over 565 trips to the plate. While a 28.8% strikeout rate is an alarming figure, he hit for enough power and drew sufficient free passes to earn a 40-man spot.

The impetus for Cleveland is the looming minor league free agent period. Players who have spent parts of seven seasons in the minors will qualify for free agency on Monday unless they’re on a 40-man roster. Cleveland ensured they wouldn’t lose Rodriguez via that process. He has a full slate of option years and could still be sent back to Columbus for the foreseeable future. If he holds the 40-man spot all offseason, he’d have a good chance of making his MLB debut at some point next year.

Craig Counsell Reportedly Looking To Reset Market For Managerial Salaries

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With Craig Counsell no longer under contract as manager of the Brewers and strong interest from other clubs, there has been much speculation about what factors he will be taking into account in deciding where to go for 2024. Per a report from Curt Hogg and Todd Rosiak of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, he is looking to reset the market for managers in terms of salary. Though the interest from the Mets will likely lead to a hefty offer, it seems he will give the Brewers a chance to match that figure.

Counsell is in high demand due to his successful track record as a skipper. He took over as the bench boss for Brewers when they were at a weak point and saw the results gradually improve in his first few seasons, winning 61, 73 and 86 games in his first three campaigns from 2015 to 2017. Since then, the club went on to qualify for the postseason in five of the past six years, despite the club generally having payrolls on the lower end of the league.

That success had garnered him interviews with the Mets and Guardians for their managerial vacancies. The Astros also have interest but it seems they are planning to take their time in their hiring process, which may prevent them from having a shot with Counsell. The fit with the Mets has been speculated upon since David Stearns left the Brewers to become president of baseball operations with the Mets. Given that Stearns and Counsell spent so much time working together, it’s been assumed by many that Stearns would poach Counsell and bring him to Queens.

Despite that outside interest, there would be logic to Counsell preferring to stay in Milwaukee, given his longstanding ties to the region. He grew up in Wisconsin and his father worked for the Brewers. Craig then spent part of his playing career with the club before his managerial career began.

Per the report from Hogg and Rosiak, Counsell is motivated by pushing the market forward in terms of manager salaries, particularly in smaller markets. Although Joe Torre once secured a salary of $8MM when managing the Yankees in the past, the market has apparently softened since then. It has been reported that Terry Francona had the highest salary of any manager in the league in 2023. Previous reports stated his contract with the Guardians had an average annual value of $4.5MM but Hogg and Rosiak relay that it was an even $5MM in 2023.

Counsell himself wasn’t too far off, getting $3.5MM from the Brewers in 2023, but he is now looking to “at least double” that figure next year, per Hogg and Rosiak. It wouldn’t be a shock if the Mets stepped up with the offer of $7MM that Counsell appears to be seeking. Owner Steve Cohen has quickly earned a spendthrift reputation since buying the Mets, seemingly to have little hesitation about plonking down money when he wants something.

But that may not be enough in this case. Per the report, Counsell will return to Milwaukee with whatever offer he has in hand and give the Brewers a chance to match it. If they are willing to do so, he will “almost certainly” stay in Milwaukee, but he doesn’t appear willing to take a hometown discount. The Brewers reportedly offered him a raise at the end of the season but it seems it wasn’t enough to prevent him from sniffing around and seeing what else is available to him.

Whether the Brewers will match the Mets is a fair question to ask. The club generally walks a fine line when it comes to payroll, occasionally having to make tough roster decisions based on money rather than targeting optimal on-field alignments. The most infamous example of this was the trade of Josh Hader, who was flipped to San Diego as his salary increased, with the club hoping the less-expensive Taylor Rogers could pick up the slack while other cheaper players bolstered other parts of the roster.

It has been speculated that another such trade could be coming this winter, with Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Willy Adames each about to enter their respective final arbitration seasons with projected eight-figure salaries. Woodruff’s injury may complicate that matter, but the point remains that it may be tough for a penny-pinching club to have the most expensive manager in the league.

Resolution may not take much longer, as a decision is “likely” by the end of the general manager meetings, which run from November 7 to 9.

Guardians Claim Alfonso Rivas From Pirates

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The Guardians announced they’ve claimed first baseman Alfonso Rivas off waivers from the Pirates.

Rivas, 27, was drafted by the A’s in the fourth round out of the University of Arizona back in 2018.  Oakland later sent him to the Cubs for Tony Kemp in January 2020.  Rivas got a fair bit of run on the 2022 Cubs, leading them in defensive innings at first base that year.  He managed just an 83 wRC+ at the plate, prompting the Cubs to designate him for assignment last December and release him in January.

Rivas then hooked on with the Padres on a minor league deal, and he managed to rake in 260 Triple-A plate appearances to the tune of a 156 wRC+.  That earned him a call back to the bigs in June, and then a trade to the Pirates at the deadline in the Rich Hill/Ji Man Choi deal.  With the Bucs having shipped out first basemen Choi and Carlos Santana, Rivas got into 40 games for the Pirates in the season’s final two months as the strong side of a platoon.  His Triple-A success failed to translate, as Rivas posted a 97 wRC+ with a 27.4% strikeout rate.

The Guardians are set with Josh Naylor as their starting first baseman in 2024.  Naylor and Rivas both bat left-handed, not that Naylor needs a platoon partner anyway.  Rivas did see a little bit of time at the outfield corners last year at Triple-A.  He could also push his way into the Guardians’ DH mix with a strong start to the season, if he’s able to hang on to his 40-man roster spot all winter.  The Guardians appear to have 39 players on their 40-man roster, once free agents Lucas Giolito, Reynaldo Lopez, and Kole Calhoun are removed and Rivas is added.

Guardians Part Ways With Three Coaches

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Third base coach Mike Sarbaugh, bullpen coach Rigo Beltran, and replay coordinator Mike Barnett won’t be returning to the Guardians’ staff next season, Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports.  These are the first known changes to be made to the composition of Cleveland’s staff now that Terry Francona will no longer be managing the team.

Sarbaugh has been a member of the Guardians’ coaching staff since 2013, mostly as the third base coach but also stepping into the bench coach role in 2020 when Sandy Alomar Jr. stepped in as interim manager while Francona was on medical leave.  However, Sarbaugh’s ties in the organization date back to 1990, as he played five seasons in the team’s minor league system before beginning a long stretch of coaching and managing at various affiliates within Cleveland’s farm system.

Barnett is also a longtime member of the staff, having worked as the replay coordinator since the 2015-16 offseason.  Barnett may be better known for his multiple stints as a hitting coach with the Blue Jays (2002-05), Royals (2006-8), and Astros (2011-12), and his 40-year career in baseball has also taken him to jobs with the Yankees, Diamondbacks, White Sox, and the University of Tennessee.

Beltran’s run on the big league coaching staff will end after just a single season, though he has been in Cleveland’s organization since 2014.  Prior to the bullpen coaching job, Beltran was the pitching coach for Triple-A Columbus for the previous four years.

Previewing Upcoming Qualifying Offer Decisions: Pitchers

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The World Series will be completed in less than a week, which means the offseason is imminent. Almost right away, some key decisions will have to be made. Within five days of the World Series ending, contract options will need to be either exercised or declined and clubs will also have to choose whether or not to issue qualifying offers to eligible players.

A player is eligible for a qualifying offer if they have never received a QO before and spent the entire season with the same club. The value of the QO changes annually, calculated by taking the average salary of the 125 highest-paid players in the league. That means it generally rises as salaries increase over time, with this year’s QO expected to land around $20.5MM. If a player receives and rejects a qualifying offer, he becomes a free agent. If he then signs elsewhere, the signing team is subject to draft pick forfeiture and possibly other penalties, while their previous club receives draft pick compensation.

MLBTR is taking a look at the candidates, with one post focusing on the position players and this one looking at the pitchers.

No-Doubters

These five are slam dunks to receive and reject the qualifying offer. Ohtani won’t pitch in 2024 after undergoing elbow surgery, but he is still expected to hit and will perhaps return to the mound in 2025. As one of the best hitters in baseball and the potential for two-way contributions down the road, he’s in line for a record-setting contract. Nola is coming off a down season relative to his own standards but has an excellent track record that will put him in line for a nine-figure deal even with the QO attached. Gray’s total earning power will be capped somewhat by the fact that he turns 34 in a week but his excellent work in 2023 should be able to get him a new deal around $20MM per year over multiple seasons. Snell just wrapped up an excellent campaign, finishing with a 2.25 ERA that could see him net a second career Cy Young award. That sets him up for a huge payday even after rejecting the QO. Hader has been one of the best relievers in the game for a long time and could challenge Edwin Díaz for the biggest contract ever for a reliever.

Special Case

Kershaw has been eligible for a qualifying offer in each of the past two offseasons but didn’t receive one. That wasn’t a reflection of his performance but a sign of respect. In each case, Kershaw went into the winter not knowing if he wanted to come back to the Dodgers, jump to his hometown Rangers or retire. The Dodgers decided both times not to issue him the QO so that he wouldn’t have to make a rushed decision at the beginning of the offseason. Since Kershaw is once again undecided on his future, it seems fair to expect that the Dodgers will decline to extend the QO, though Kershaw would warrant one in a vacuum.

Possible Candidates

Lugo spent most of his career working out of the bullpen but hit free agency a year ago and drew plenty of interest as a starter. The Padres eventually brought him aboard via a two-year deal with a $15MM guarantee and incentives, as well as an opt-out after the first season.

The righty made the most of the opportunity, making 26 starts and logging 146 1/3 innings with a 3.57 earned run average. He stuck out 23.2% of batters faced, walked 6% and kept the ball on the ground at a 45.2% clip. There were some concerns about Lugo’s ability to hold up over a full season, both since he hadn’t had that kind of workload before and because he had a slight tear of his UCL in 2017 that wasn’t surgically addressed. But in 2023, Lugo made just one trip to the injured list, missing just over a month due to a calf strain.

Now that Lugo has proof of concept as a starter, he should have greater earning power than he did a year ago, even though he’s about to turn 34. Turning down the one year and $7.5MM left on his deal should be an easy call, but then the Padres will have a more difficult choice. It would be hard for Lugo to turn down a 2024 salary more than twice what he made in the prior season, so there would be a decent chance he accepts a QO. With the club reportedly looking to cut payroll, they may not want to take that chance.

Maeda has had his ups and downs in recent years but is heading into free agency with some momentum. He posted a 2.70 ERA in 2020 but then that figure jumped to 4.66 in 2021 before he underwent internal brace surgery on his elbow. He missed all of 2022 and then struggled early in 2023. In his fourth start of the season, he was shelled by the Yankees, allowing 10 earned runs in three innings. He was then placed on the injured list with a triceps strain while sporting an ERA of 9.00 for the year.

But after getting healthy, his results were much better. He was activated from the IL in late June and made 17 more appearances the rest of the way. He tossed 88 1/3 innings with a 3.36 ERA, 29% strikeout rate and 7% walk rate. Though his ERA for the whole year finished at 4.23, it seems fair to conclude that the early-season injury inflated that number.

The righty has never had a massive salary locked in. When he initially came over from Japan, the Dodgers signed him to an incentive-laden deal that guaranteed him $25MM over eight years. That came in the form of a $1MM signing bonus, $3MM salary each year and $6.5MM in incentives available each season based on games started and innings pitched. If he suddenly had a $20.5MM guarantee in front of him for his age-36 season, that would likely be very tempting.

The Twins aren’t one of the top payroll teams under normal circumstances and may need to cut back spending due to uncertainty around their TV revenues. They may not want to blow a huge chunk of their budget right at the beginning of the offseason, especially when their rotation is already in decent shape with Pablo López, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Chris Paddack and Louie Varland currently pencilled in.

Wacha had some strong seasons earlier in his career with the Cardinals, but injuries became an issue more recently. He settled for a $3MM guarantee while joining the Mets for 2020, then was limited to 34 mediocre innings in the shortened season. The Rays took a shot on him in 2021 with another $3MM guarantee and he stayed healthy enough to log 124 2/3 innings with a 5.05 ERA. That relatively healthy campaign was enough to get him a one-year, $7MM deal with the Red Sox for 2022, and he then tossed 127 1/3 innings for that club with a 3.23 ERA.

He lingered on the open market for a while last offseason but eventually landed a four-year, $26MM guarantee from the Padres with a layered option structure. After the 2023 World Series, the Friars will have to decide whether or not to trigger two $16MM club options for 2024 and 2025, effectively a two-year, $32MM deal. If they decline, Wacha has a $6.5MM player option for 2024 and then $6MM player options for 2025 and 2026.

The righty is coming off another decent season. Though his shoulder landed him on the IL this year, just as it had in 2022 and 2020, he was able to make 24 starts and throw 134 1/3 innings with a 3.22 ERA. His 22.4% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate were both close to league average, though he may have benefitted from a .266 batting average on balls in play and 79.7% strand rate. His 3.89 FIP and 4.43 SIERA suggest his ERA might not be wholly sustainable.

As mentioned in the Lugo section above, the Padres are facing a budget crunch. Though they are likely pleased with Wacha’s results in 2023, would they want to give him a pay raise by triggering that option? If they pass on that, Wacha would likely turn down his player option and return to free agency. He would be eligible for a qualifying offer at that point, which would be a higher salary than the club option but on a shorter commitment. The Padres effectively have to decide between 1/20 or 2/32 or simply letting Wacha walk.

Long Shot

Some fans of the Yankees might shudder at the thought of the club bringing back Montas at a higher salary, but it’s not a completely crazy idea. Though he was hurt or ineffective from the moment he donned pinstripes, he’s not too far removed from some strong results. From 2019 to 2021, he posted an ERA of 3.51 over 336 innings pitched. In that time, he struck out 26.3% of batters faced, issued walks at a 7.3% clip and kept 43.7% of batted balls on the ground. Among pitchers with at least 300 innings pitched in that time, that ERA ranked him 21st in the majors. Even in 2022, prior to the infamous trade, he was still quite good. He registered an ERA of 3.18 in his 19 starts for the A’s that year.

Players returning from injury absences can often still find themselves big salaries on short-term deals. Noah Syndergaard got one year and $21MM from the Angels after missing most of 2020 and 2021 rehabbing from Tommy John surgery. Corey Kluber got $11MM from the Yankees even though he was 35 years old and made just eight appearances over the two previous campaigns. James Paxton got $10MM from the Red Sox under similar circumstances.

The Yankees have a couple of long-term contracts in their rotation with Gerrit Cole and Carlos Rodón. The latter hasn’t worked out well so far, with Rodón injured for much of 2023. The club needs rotation reinforcements with Michael King, Clarke Schmidt and Nestor Cortes pencilled into the back end, each of whom comes with some question marks. They could add another marquee free agent, but maybe they’d prefer to take a short-term flier on a player they have obviously liked for a long time, giving up four prospects to acquire him and Lou Trivino just over a year ago. They then agreed to a $7.5MM arbitration salary for 2023 even as questions about his shoulder lingered.

Though there’s an argument for the possibility, it ultimately seems like the odds are against this happening. The Montas trade has gone so poorly, both from an on-field perspective and a PR one, that it’s hard to envision the club doubling down. If Montas doesn’t receive the QO, he will likely be fielding one-year offers slightly below the $20.5MM salary range.

Ineligible

As mentioned up top, players are only eligible to receive the qualifying offer if they haven’t received one previously and also spent the entire year with just one MLB club. Rodriguez and Stroman, who can each opt out of their respective contracts, have each been issued a QO earlier in their career. Flaherty, Giolito and Montgomery were all traded midseason, which makes them ineligible as well. Players coming from other leagues aren’t eligible either, so Yamamoto and Imanaga won’t have the QO in play. For each of these pitchers, the lack of a QO helps their earning power since clubs won’t have to forfeit any draft picks to sign them.

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