Cubs Notes: Boyd, Outfield, Shaw
Left-hander Matthew Boyd returned to the Cubs after his stint with Team USA in the World Baseball Classic and was promptly named the team’s Opening Day starter by manager Craig Counsell. He’ll take the ball and be followed by Cade Horton, Edward Cabrera, Jameson Taillon and Shota Imanaga in some order. Righties Javier Assad and Ben Brown are potential 40-man alternatives, and veteran Colin Rea will open the season in a swingman role in the bullpen.
Boyd, who turned 35 last month, tossed a career-high 179 1/3 innings with the Cubs last season. He worked to a strong 3.21 ERA with a slightly below-average 21.4% strikeout rate but a terrific 5.8% walk rate. Boyd is entering the second season of a two-year, $29MM contract. He already unlocked $500K of incentives last year based on his workload, and he’ll be paid $14.5MM in 2026 with the opportunity to earn another $500K via incentives (reaching 120 innings). He’s also owed a $2MM buyout on a 2027 mutual option that won’t be picked up by both parties.
In other Cubs news, the team announced its latest wave of cuts this morning. Lefties Luke Little and Ryan Rolison were optioned to Triple-A, as was fleet-footed outfielder Justin Dean. The Cubs also reassigned a handful of non-roster players to minor league camp — Vince Velasquez most notable among them.
By sending Dean to Triple-A to begin the season, the Cubs made it quite likely that they’ll open the season with a current non-roster veteran holding a bench spot as a reserve outfielder. Former top prospect Kevin Alcántara remains in big league camp and is on the 40-man roster, but he has an option year left and is currently 4-for-21 with nine strikeouts in 23 official spring plate appearances. The team would presumably prefer him to be playing every day in Iowa rather than sitting on the bench and grabbing a start or two per week anyhow.
The most notable non-roster outfielders in camp are Dylan Carlson, Michael Conforto and Chas McCormick. Carlson has been the most productive of the bunch and offers the bonus of being a switch-hitter who can handle all three outfield spots. Conforto is a pure lefty who’s not an option in center field, though he has the most prominent major league track record of this group (albeit not in the past couple seasons). McCormick is a righty-hitting center fielder who can handle all three spots and has crushed lefties in the past (but struggled against all opponents in 2025).
One player who clearly seems ticketed for a heavily used role off the bench: former top prospect Matt Shaw. The 24-year-old hit just .226/.295/.394 as a rookie but did have a nice showing over the season’s final three months. The Cubs’ signing of Alex Bregman displaced Shaw from last year’s home at third base, and he’s now moving into more of a utility role.
We’ve already seen Shaw get some reps in the outfield and at second base, but The Athletic’s Sahadev Sharma writes that he’s now working first base into his repertoire as well. Shaw tells Sharma that he worked out at first base for about three days before making his debut at the position there during yesterday’s Cactus League game.
Getting some work in at first base is all the more important in the event of Tyler Austin‘s knee surgery, which will keep him sidelined for several months. Austin returned from Japan’s NPB this year, signing a one-year deal with the Cubs to serve as a righty-swinging complement to Michael Busch at first base and the provide some pop off the bench.
That role is obviously on hold for the time being, and with no clear option to step up and take it — right-handed-hitting corner infield prospect Jonathon Long has been slowed in camp by an elbow issue — Austin’s injury could create some additional at-bats for Shaw in the early portion of the season. Busch batted .207/.274/.368 against lefties last season and is a career .230/.295/.356 hitter in left-on-left settings. Shaw hit .250/.318/.490 versus left-handers last year and finished as a Gold Glove finalist at the hot corner, so he should have the athleticism and defensive acumen to handle a multi-position role.
MLBTR Podcast: The Braves Say They Won’t Sell, Jeimer Candelario DFA’d, And Injured D-Backs
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Anthony Franco of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- MLBTR’s new Trade Deadline Outlook series for Front Office subscribers having kicked off with the Pirates, Phillies and Marlins (2:00)
- Alex Anthopoulos says the Braves won’t sell but now Chris Sale is injured (8:55)
- The Reds designating Jeimer Candelario for assignment and calling up Chase Burns (12:40)
- The Diamondbacks’ situation exacerbated by injuries to A.J. Puk, Gabriel Moreno and Corbin Carroll (19:50)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- Matthew Boyd has already surpassed his highest innings total since 2019. How far do the Cubs push him over the remainder of the season? (32:05)
- The Padres and Royals have pitching they could trade but should they? (38:20)
- The Reds don’t have long-term answers at first base, third base, left field, right field or designated hitter. Is there a path to bring in players from outside the organization? (45:40)
Check out our past episodes!
- Reacting To The Devers Trade And Aaron Civale – listen here
- White Sox Ownership, Roman Anthony, And The Diamondbacks’ Rotation – listen here
- Jarren Duran Rumors, Caglianone And Young Promoted, And Pitching Injuries – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Photo courtesy of Robert Edwards, Imagn Images
Cubs Option Ben Brown
The Cubs announced Tuesday that they’ve optioned righty Ben Brown to Triple-A Iowa. Reliever Porter Hodge was reinstated from the injured list in a corresponding move. Brown’s demotion opens a spot in the rotation for lefty Shota Imanaga, who is set to return to start Thursday’s game for Chicago.
It’s been an up-and-down season for the 25-year-old Brown, who has at times looked the part of a potential long-term member of the Cubs’ rotation. More often than not — and especially recently — he’s struggled to work deep into games, however. Brown is sitting on a 6.13 ERA at this point, a number that’s been inflated over the past five weeks. In Brown’s past seven starts, he’s had individual outings wherein he’s yielded six runs (twice) and eight runs (twice). It’s derailed a decent start to the season for the promising young righty and has at least for now cost him his spot on the big league roster.
Imanaga’s return will bolster what’s been a reeling Cubs staff. They’ve made no secret about their plans to upgrade the rotation via the trade market. President of baseball operations Jed Hoyer publicly said as much just two weeks ago. Even beyond that comment, a need for help was readily apparent. Chicago has lost ace Justin Steele for the season due to elbow surgery. Young righty Javier Assad has yet to pitch this season due to multiple oblique injuries. Colin Rea was excellent upon first moving into the rotation but has struggled over the past month, just as Brown has. Imanaga was sidelined nearly two months with a hamstring injury.
The Cubs’ need for pitching is no secret, but they’re one of just several clubs looking for immediate rotation help — and doing so at a time when there are few clubs around the league willing to engage in genuine trade conversations. Be that as it may, Bruce Levine of 670 The Score said in a radio appearance on 670’s Mully & Haugh this week (audio link) that the Cubs are being extremely aggressive and working on multiple fronts. Levine suggested a deal could come together well ahead of next month’s trade deadline and possibly even within the next week to ten days.
Levine downplayed the possibility of the Cubs acquiring former Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara, who’s slowly turning his season around after an awful start to the year in his return from Tommy John surgery. (Alcantara has a 2.74 ERA and 19-to-5 K/BB ratio in 23 innings across his past four starts.) Rather, he suggests that the Cubs have been looking at some less-obvious trade candidates around the league.
The Marlins themselves have other, less-heralded trade candidates than Alcantara (e.g. Edward Cabrera). The Mets appeared to have some arms available before injuries to Kodai Senga and Tylor Megill thinned their depth. Clubs like the Orioles, Twins and D-backs could ultimately end up with starters on the market, but none of them seem ready to move in a sell direction with five-plus weeks before the deadline. The Rays can never be discounted as a possible trade partner at any juncture, and they’re again rich in pitching (at a time when Joe Boyle and Ian Seymour are thriving in Triple-A). Zack Littell is almost certain to be available as a rental, but an aggressive team could try to make a more substantial offer for someone like Drew Rasmussen.
Those are all speculative possibilities, of course. The Cubs have kept their rotation search generally close to the vest. With Brown and Rea struggling recently and Matthew Boyd a bit banged up — he exited his most recent start after a rough landing on his shoulder when spearing a J.P. Crawford comeback liner (video link) — the need has become more noticeable. Boyd is on track to start tomorrow’s game for the Cubs, and the team called the issue “minor,” but it’ll still be worth tracking how he gets through tomorrow’s outing.
As for Brown, he’ll head back to Triple-A and look to get back on track. Injuries to any pitching staff are an inevitability, so even if the Cubs wind up adding a starter sooner than later, as Levine suggests, additional opportunities for Brown to start games could present themselves as the summer wears on. This is his second of three option years for the right-hander, so even if he stays down longer than 20 days and formally burns a minor league option, he’ll retain one more option year and remain a flexible piece for the Cubs moving forward. If Brown spends more than two weeks in Triple-A, it’d push his path to free agency back by a year.
Tigers Notes: Vierling, Olson, Urquidy, Boyd
A right rotator cuff strain delayed Matt Vierling‘s season debut until May 23, and he played in only four games before inflammation in that same right shoulder sent him back to the injured list. The Tigers utilityman’s luck may be starting to change, however, as a visit with Dr. Keith Meister earlier this week resulted in what Vierling described as “absolutely the best-case scenario” of just inflammation.
“I was nervous it might be something more serious, but the MRI showed that everything was fine structurally….I will start throwing [Sunday] and build up from there. There is no exact timeline but hopefully sooner than later,” Vierling told the Detroit News’ Chris McCosky and other reporters yesterday. Vierling also noted that he received an injection in his shoulder during his appointment.
Vierling is the only position player on the Tigers’ injured list, after a swath of early-season injuries left the club heavily depleted in the outfield. Parker Meadows and Wenceel Perez have now both returned from the IL, Zach McKinstry remains a Swiss Army knife around the diamond, and Javier Baez has also evolved from a shortstop into more of a utility player (and a part-time center fielder).
All that’s missing now is Vierling, who filled a multi-positional role for Detroit in 2023-24 by suiting up at third base and at all three outfield positions, as well as a couple of appearances at first and second base. Vierling also hit a respectable .259/.320/.406 over 1097 plate appearances over those two seasons, and his right-handed bat can help balance out a Tigers lineup that is still heavy in left-handed hitters.
Turning to the pitching side of the injured list, Tigers manager A.J. Hinch provided McCosky and company with an update on Reese Olson‘s status. Olson received an injection in his inflamed right ring finger last Wednesday, and threw a bullpen session on Saturday. The next step will be incorporating changeups in Olson’s throwing sessions and future bullpens, which is the key step since it was throwing the changeup that led to the inflammation in the first place.
Olson increased his changeup usage this season, throwing the pitch 25.3% of the time and making it his chief secondary offering behind his sinker (31%). An average pitch for Olson over his first two MLB seasons, the changeup was now suddenly his most effective offering as per Statcast’s run value metric, with the changeup registering a +5 this year. This was, of course, over the small sample size of 48 2/3 innings in 2025, and the increase in effectiveness came at a price in the form of this IL trip. Olson hasn’t pitched since May 17, and it looks like he’ll continue to be sidelined into the second half of June.
Jose Urquidy won’t be a factor (if at all) for the Tigers until much later in the 2025 season, as the right-hander is almost exactly one year removed from a Tommy John surgery. Urquidy inked a one-year, $1MM guaranteed deal with Detroit in March that gives the Tigers a $4MM club option for 2026, essentially making this season a wait-and-see scenario for the team in gauging Urquidy’s recovery from rehab.
Urquidy hit a big checkpoint in his process on Friday, as Hinch said the righty threw a bullpen session at the Tigers’ spring complex in Lakeland. Many steps remain in the throwing progression, and McCosky writes that “Urquidy is still maybe a month or more away from a rehab assignment.” If all goes well, Urquidy could possibly be a factor for Detroit in late August or September, which would allow him to at least bank a few MLB innings as a bridge towards a fully healthy 2026.
With the Cubs visiting Detroit for a series, former Tiger Matthew Boyd was in town reuniting with some old friends in the clubhouse and on the media beat. Boyd was a free agent this last winter, and he told MLive.com’s Evan Woodbery that he had some talks with the Tigers about a possible deal before eventually going to Chicago on a two-year, $29MM contract. That signing has worked out wonderfully thus far, as Boyd has a 3.10 ERA over 68 2/3 innings and has been a stabilizing force within the Cubs’ injury-riddled rotation.
Boyd has spent eight of his 11 MLB seasons in a Detroit uniform, though the second of his two stints with the Tigers didn’t end well. The southpaw signed a one-year, $10MM deal with the Tigers during the 2022-23 offseason, but he produced only a 5.45 ERA over 71 innings before a Tommy John surgery ended his 2023 season and kept him on the shelf for most of the 2024 campaign. Boyd was able to return by the end of 2024 and, as a member of the Guardians, looked very sharp in posting a 2.72 ERA in 39 2/3 regular-season innings and then an 0.77 ERA over 11 2/3 postseason frames.
That performance was enough to land Boyd two guaranteed years from the Cubs, plus the contract contains a mutual option for 2027. It is possible that giving Boyd a second year was too much for the Tigers, as the club was focused mostly on shorter-term additions to its pitching staff. Detroit brought Jack Flaherty (for two years and $35MM, with an opt-out after 2025) and Alex Cobb (one year, $15MM) into the fold this past winter as alternatives to another reunion with Boyd.
Cubs Sign Matthew Boyd
DECEMBER 9: The Cubs made Boyd’s signing official on Saturday and Robert Murray of FanSided (X link) has the full contract details today. Boyd gets a $5MM signing bonus and a salary of $7.5MM in 2025, followed by a $14.5MM salary in 2026. There is a $2MM buyout on a $15MM mutual option for 2027. As for the bonuses, Boyd gets $100K for getting to 80, 90, 100, 110 and 120 innings pitched in each season.
DECEMBER 2: The Cubs have agreed with left-hander Matthew Boyd on a two-year deal that will guarantee him $29MM, per a report from Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The deal includes $1MM in performance bonuses, $500K each year, that could take the total guarantee to $30MM over two years. Boyd is represented by the Boras Corporation.
Boyd, 34 in February, made his big league debut with the Blue Jays back in 2018 but established himself in the majors as a member of the Tigers the following year. From 2016 to 2020, Boyd served as a slightly below league average starter for Detroit with a 4.75 ERA (95 ERA+) and 4.54 FIP in 727 innings of work. The southpaw at times flashed exciting peripherals, such as the 2019 season when he punched out 30.2% of opponents in 185 1/3 frames while walking just 6.3%, but his overall body of work cast him as more of a solid back-of-the-rotation arm than anything else.
Boyd’s time with the Tigers came to a close when he required surgery to repair a torn flexor tendon late in the 2021 campaign, which left him limited to just ten relief appearances as a member of the Mariners. He returned to the Tigers in 2023 but made just 15 starts to lackluster results before going under the knife a second time, this time due to Tommy John surgery.
Once again a free agent coming off major surgery, Boyd remained unsigned headed into the 2024 season before eventually landing a big league deal with the Guardians back in June. The lefty didn’t make his season debut until mid-August after building up to game readiness in the minor leagues, but once he suited up for Cleveland he looked quite good with a 2.72 ERA and 3.29 FIP in 39 2/3 innings of work across eight starts down the stretch. He struck out 27.7% of his opponents while walking just 7.3%, which would have given Boyd one of the better K-BB% figures for a starter in the sport this year if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He built on that solid regular season performance with a strong showing during the Guardians’ run to the ALCS. He pitched 12 innings for the club across four appearances (three starts), and struck out 28% of opponents while posting a dazzling 0.75 ERA.
That strong finish to Boyd’s season left the southpaw poised to garner plenty of interest in free agency this winter, even in spite of his checkered injury history. MLBTR ranked Boyd as the #23 free agent in this winter’s class on our annual Top 50 MLB free agents list, and predicted a two-year, $25MM guarantee that comes in just below the pact he ultimately landed with the Cubs. Boyd becomes the fifth starting pitcher to sign a multi-year deal this winter, joining Michael Wacha‘s three-year deal with the Royals, Yusei Kikuchi‘s three-year pact with the Angels, Blake Snell‘s five-year contract with the Dodgers, and the two-year agreement between Frankie Montas and the Mets that was reported earlier this evening.
Notably, four of the five were unencumbered by draft pick compensation in a pitching market where plenty of borderline candidates such as Nick Pivetta and Luis Severino were extended the qualifying offer by their clubs. (Wacha re-signed in Kansas City the day before QOs were tendered but would very likely have received one.) Each pitcher has landed a deal that come in at or above expectations.
Even so, that seems to have pushed clubs that aren’t interested in signing a qualified free agent to act quickly. The calendar has only just flipped to December the market is already beginning to thin in terms of starters who aren’t attached to a qualifying offer. MLBTR predicted multi-year deals for just four more free agent starters who aren’t attached to draft pick compensation this winter: Jack Flaherty, Nathan Eovaldi, Andrew Heaney, and Jose Quintana.
Turning back to the Cubs, the addition of Boyd adds another capable veteran arm to a rotation that already features lefties Justin Steele and Shota Imanaga as well as right-hander Jameson Taillon. Adding to the rotation has been a well-established priority for the club this winter, though early reports of plans to shop for a top-of-the-rotation arm eventually gave way to the suggestion Chicago could instead look for arms a tier or two below that pedigree. Boyd fits the latter description, given his roughly league-average work throughout his career and his recent struggles with injuries. The lefty has been limited to just 202 2/3 innings of work since the start of the 2021 season, and in that time he’s posted a 4.04 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.97 FIP and a 23.2% strikeout rate against an 8% walk rate.
While Boyd may not necessarily profile as a front-end starter, it’s still not hard to imagine him providing an upgrade to the Cubs’ rotation when healthy. After all, the lefty was legitimately impactful for the Guardians this year in both the regular season and the playoffs, and that success being a late-career step forward rather than a simple hot streak can’t be ruled out for a pitcher who has long shown flashes of dominance throughout his time in the majors. What’s more, Chicago is perhaps uniquely well-equipped to handle any absences caused by future injuries thanks to a deep group of optionable arms that includes Ben Brown, Javier Assad, Jordan Wicks, and Hayden Wesneski who can step into the rotation fairly seamlessly if needed.
For the time being, that quartet appears likely to vie for the fifth spot in the club’s rotation this spring, with Assad as the early front-runner after a generally successful (3.73 ERA, 4.64 FIP) season as a starter in 2024. RosterResource currently projects the Cubs for a $176MM payroll in 2025, and the Boyd deal should move that up to the $191MM range. That still leaves a bit more than $20MM of breathing room relative to the club’s 2024 Opening Day payroll, which Cot’s Baseball Contracts notes sat just over $214MM. It’s not impossible to imagine the club pursuing another starter to strengthen their rotation through either free agency or trade this winter with the financial flexibility the club has remaining, but given the club’s needs at catcher and in the bullpen it seems those funds will likely be used elsewhere—at least unless a trade of Cody Bellinger clears some additional money off the club’s books.
MLBTR Podcast: Blake Snell, Dodger Fatigue, And The Simmering Hot Stove
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- The Dodgers signing Blake Snell (2:00)
- Baseball fans having Dodger fatigue and deferral fatigue (9:05)
- Are the Dodgers going to make more rotation additions? (14:30)
- The Dodgers extending Tommy Edman (16:25)
- The news of the Red Sox signing Aroldis Chapman breaks during recording (21:30)
- The Mets signing Frankie Montas (26:30)
- The Cubs signing Matthew Boyd (35:55)
- The Rangers signing Kyle Higashioka (43:15)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- What would the Pirates have to give to the Red Sox to get Triston Casas? (48:20)
- Why is Cody Bellinger‘s deal so tough for the Cubs to trade? (54:15)
Check out our past episodes!
- Yusei Kikuchi, The Aggressive Angels, And The Brady Singer/Jonathan India Trade – listen here
- The Rays’ Stadium Plans, Diamond Sports, And Some Offseason Rumors – listen here
- Roki Sasaki, Gerrit Cole’s Non-Opt-Out, And Cardinals Rumors – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Guardians Notes: Fry, Free Agents, Coaching Staff
The Guardians had a strong season in 2024 but came up just shy of the ultimate goal, falling to the Yankees in the ALCS. They now head into offseason mode with some questions to be answered. Zack Meisel of The Athletic relayed a few interesting notes on X today, arguably with the most notable detail being that David Fry is going to see Dr. Keith Meister about his injured elbow. On top of that, Meisel also says that the entire coaching staff will be back unless someone gets a promotion with another club, and that the Guards have some degree of mutual interest in reunions with free agents Shane Bieber, Alex Cobb, Matthew Boyd and Austin Hedges.
Fry had a strong season in 2024, hitting 14 home runs in just 392 plate appearances and drawing walks at a 10.7% clip. That led to a .263/.356/.448 batting line and 129 wRC+. Most of that damage came against left-handed pitching, as the righty hitter had a massive 18.2% walk rate with the platoon advantage but just 5.3% without it, while nine of his 14 long balls were against southpaws. That created lopsided platoon splits with Fry slashing .287/.430/.566 against lefties for a 179 wRC+, while those numbers were .248/.302/.374 and a 94 wRC+ against righties.
While Fry was limited by those splits this year, he was also limited in another way. He is capable of playing various spots on the diamond, with some past experience at catcher and in the four corner spots. But in late June, he was diagnosed with right elbow inflammation, as Meisel relayed on X at that time. In the latter half of the season, he mostly served as a designated hitter or pinch hitter, only rarely taking the field. He didn’t play a position other than first base after the month of July.
This left manager Stephen Vogt a little bit hamstrung down the stretch and into the postseason, as he couldn’t but Fry behind the plate. That left the Guards with a catching tandem of Bo Naylor and Hedges. Naylor had a strong year defensively but didn’t hit much. As for Hedges, he’s been on the extreme edge of that profile for a long time, having spent a decade in the big leagues as one of the worst hitters but one of the best backstops when the gear is on.
Fry’s elbow issue was manageable enough that he could hit through it, but it seems he might do a deeper dive now that the season is done. Meister is an elbow specialist who has performed dozens of Tommy John surgeries and internal brace procedures. The fact that Fry is going to see him doesn’t mean that surgery is inevitable, as it will obviously depend on the condition of his elbow, but the meeting is notable nonetheless.
If surgery is required, he’d naturally be in line for a lengthy rehab. Position players can generally return from major elbow surgeries a bit quicker than pitchers, with hitting a possibility before throwing. Bryce Harper was one extreme example, undergoing Tommy John surgery in November of 2022 and then being reinstated in May of 2023, less than six months later. Harper served as a DH for a while and then started playing some first base in July.
Of course, each case is unique and it’s not even a guarantee that going under the knife will be necessary, but that provides a rough guideline of something that could be considered. However, if such a scenario does come to pass, then it makes sense that Guardians would have some interest in bringing back Hedges.
As mentioned, Hedges is an extreme case of a glove-first backstop, which he showed again in 2024 by putting up a line of .152/.203/.220 in his 146 plate appearances. His wRC+ of 20 was the worst in the majors among guys with that many trips to the plate, except for Martín Maldonado‘s 11 wRC+ in 147 plate appearances.
But Hedges has consistently been atop defensive leaderboards for catchers. He has 91 Defensive Runs Saved from 2015 to the present, easily the most in baseball with Roberto Pérez second with 75. He’s also tops in terms of Statcast Fielding Run Value for that stretch and second only to Yasmani Grandal in terms of FanGraphs’ framing metric. If Fry is set to miss some time next year, it would make sense to have Hedges come back and share the catching duties with Naylor, at least until Fry is once again an option behind the plate. Hedges signed for $4MM coming into this year and is likely in line for a pay cut, as his hitting in 2024 was below even his own low standards.
As for the other free agents, it’s understandable that Cleveland would be interested in bringing them back as they are all starting pitchers. The Guardians have long been known for their ability to grow rotation options on trees but struggled in that department in 2024. Bieber required Tommy John surgery while pitchers like Triston McKenzie, Carlos Carrasco, Logan Allen and others struggled to post decent results.
That led to the club in the unusual position of having to find midseason additions. They signed Boyd, who was recovering from Tommy John surgery, to a major league deal in June. He was still on the injured list at the trade deadline when they acquired Cobb and added him into the mix.
Both of those two and Bieber are now heading into free agency. The Cleveland rotation for 2025 projects to be fronted by Tanner Bibee with plenty of question marks after that. Ben Lively posted a 3.81 earned run average in 2024 but that was despite a low strikeout rate of 18.7%. He may have been helped by a .265 batting average on balls in play and 78.4% strand rate, which were both on the fortunate side. His 4.66 FIP and 4.58 SIERA suggest he may have difficulty repeating that ERA. Gavin Williams is a bit of the inverse, as he had a 4.86 ERA in 2024 but with a low 66.9% strand rate, leading to a 3.67 FIP and 4.19 SIERA.
Beyond those three, it gets real murky. Joey Cantillo had a 4.89 ERA in his first major league action but did so with a 9.2% walk rate around league average. Since he’s walked 13.4% of minor leagues faced since the start of 2021 and was at 15% on the farm in 2024, it might not be wise to expect him to keep up that level of control. McKenzie and Allen had ERAs above 5.00 both in the majors and minors this year.
In short, bringing in starting pitching is a logical plan for this offseason. Mutual interest between the pitchers and the club is nice but a fair price will likely be required in each case. Boyd has been injured a lot in recent years but is going into free agency on a high note. He posted a 2.72 ERA with the Guards down the stretch, along with a 27.7% strikeout rate and 7.8% walk rate, then had a 0.77 ERA in his three playoff outings. He could perhaps parlay that strong finish into a solid two-year deal in free agency and will likely be looking to maximize his guarantee after so many injury absences in his career.
Bieber and Cobb will have less momentum in terms of their earning power. As mentioned, Bieber had Tommy John surgery early in the 2024 season and will be slated to miss at least the early parts of the 2025 season. Pitchers recovering from Tommy John sometimes sign two-year deals, but those guys are usually on a path to miss most or all of the first season in those cases. Since Bieber went under the knife in April, he could perhaps play a significant role in 2025 and might try to return to the open market a year from now, either by signing a one-year deal or a two-year pact with an opt-out.
Cobb is coming off an injury-marred season that saw him throw just 22 innings between the regular season and playoffs. He came into 2024 recovering from hip surgery and eventually battled through shoulder discomfort as well as fingernail/blister issues on his pitching hand before his season was ended by a lower back strain. Now 37 years old and coming off that year, he’ll have to settle for a fairly modest deal, perhaps heavy with incentives.
RosterResource projects the Guardians for a $95MM payroll in 2025, which is less than $10MM shy of their 2024 number. That might not leave them a lot to work with this winter unless they’re planning on a notable spending increase. With the club’s broadcast deal with Diamond Sports Group now done and MLB taking over in that department, they may have less TV money coming and may not have much appetite for a big bump in the budget.
However, Josh Naylor and Lane Thomas are each slated for notable salaries in their respective final seasons of club control. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Naylor for $12MM and Thomas for $8.3MM. The Guardians often trade notable players before they reach free agency, with Francisco Lindor, Corey Kluber and Trevor Bauer being some recent examples. Perhaps they would consider the same with Naylor and/or Thomas as a way of freeing up money while also perhaps bolstering the rotation that way. Any free agent pursuits might also hinge on how that market plays out for them.
Guardians To Activate Matthew Boyd
The Guardians will reinstate left-hander Matthew Boyd from the 15-day injured list prior to tomorrow’s game, reports Mandy Bell of MLB.com. He’ll make his team debut when he starts for the Guards on Tuesday evening against the Cubs. Cleveland will only need to make a corresponding active roster transaction involving a pitcher, as Boyd is already on the 40-man roster.
Cleveland signed Boyd to a big league deal earlier this summer. He’s spent the season to date rehabbing from Tommy John surgery performed last June and is now ready to step back onto a big league mound. The longtime Tigers southpaw has been sensational during his minor league rehab stint. In 21 2/3 innings across three levels — Rookie ball, Double-A, Triple-A — he’s pitched to a 0.83 ERA with a mammoth 35.1% strikeout rate against a minuscule 2.6% walk rate. We’re looking at small samples against far, far less experienced competition, but Boyd certainly hasn’t shown much in the way of signs of rust.
Boyd’s appearance tomorrow will be his first major league outing since June 26 of last year. The elbow procedure ended what had been a return stint in Detroit. Boyd looked the part of a mid-rotation starter at times during his first run with the Tigers. The first stint also unfortunately concluded with an arm surgery, as Boyd required a flexor repair in September 2021. He was limited to 10 relief outings late in the ’22 campaign as a member of the Mariners. Boyd returned to the Motor City the ensuing winter, signing a $10MM free agent pact.
Even before the Tommy John surgery, Boyd didn’t get the results he wanted last season. He was tagged for a 5.45 ERA across 15 starts. An abnormally low 62% strand rate was the biggest culprit. Boyd had solid strikeout (24.1%) and walk (8.3%) numbers and induced swinging strikes on an excellent 14% of his pitches. He had a hard time keeping the ball in the yard, though, especially against right-handed opponents. That has been an issue throughout Boyd’s career. It’s perhaps the biggest reason he only has one full season with a sub-4.00 ERA despite a consistently strong strikeout and walk profile.
The Guardians signed Boyd in late June, one year to the day after Detroit announced he was headed for Tommy John surgery. The 33-year-old started a minor league rehab stint just after the All-Star Break. He built up to six innings and 63 pitches during his start with Triple-A Columbus last Wednesday. He’ll presumably be on a pitch count for his first couple appearances, but Cleveland will happily take whatever contribution they can get.
Cleveland took the final two games of their four-game weekend set with Minnesota, earning a split in the process. That pushed their division lead back to 3.5 games on the Twins and four up on the Royals. That’s despite their patchwork rotation. Tanner Bibee and, more surprisingly, Ben Lively have been their most reliable starters this season. Gavin Williams has made eight starts since returning from an extended IL stay to open the year. The Guardians welcomed deadline acquisition Alex Cobb back from injury for his team and season debut on Friday. Boyd can step into the rotation spot opened when Carlos Carrasco landed on the shelf that same day. Bibee, Williams and Cobb would probably line up as the top three in Cleveland’s ideal playoff rotation, but Boyd has a chance to push Cobb or Lively for a start in the middle of a series come October.
Latest On Guardians’ Rotation
Ever since losing ace Shane Bieber to Tommy John surgery early in the season, the Guardians have employed something of a patchwork starting staff. In atypical fashion, Cleveland has succeeded this season not necessarily because of its strong rotation but rather in spite of its starting pitching; Guardians starters rank 24th in the majors with a collective 4.49 ERA in 2024. Over the past 30 days, Cleveland starters have a 4.74 ERA. Thanks to an elite bullpen and productive offense, however, Cleveland’s 66-42 record stands as the best mark in Major League Baseball.
Unfortunately for the Guards, there’s more ominous news on the starting pitching front. Right-hander Tanner Bibee, who leads the team in both starts (22) and innings pitched (121 1/3), will have his next start pushed back due to tightness in his right shoulder, per Mandy Bell of MLB.com. Right now, there’s no indication that a stint on the injured list is in the offing, but any delay due to shoulder or elbow problems are cause for at least some concern with pitchers.
Bibee, in particular, has been vital to Cleveland’s success. He’s not only the staff leader in terms of workload, he’s been the most consistent and most effective arm on the staff in 2024. Journeyman Ben Lively has a narrow edge in ERA (3.42 to Bibee’s 3.48), but Bibee sports the better strikeout and walk rates and has been far more effective at keeping the ball in the yard.
Of last year’s three vaunted top prospects who made the jump to the majors in short succession, Bibee is the only one who has taken another step forward in 2024. Fellow righty Gavin Williams has spent most of the season on the injured list and only just returned last month. Left-hander Logan Allen was optioned to Triple-A Columbus earlier this summer after posting a 5.67 ERA and yielding 1.85 HR/9 through 87 1/3 innings.
The Guardians can hope there’s help on the horizon. Trade acquisition Alex Cobb has been out all season due to recovery from winter hip surgery and some setbacks that occurred along the way. He’s nearly done with a rehab assignment, however. His next and likely final rehab appearance will come tomorrow in Columbus, writes Chris Assenheimer of the Chronicle-Telegram.
Cobb, 36, is in the final season of a contract originally signed with the Giants in the 2021-22 offseason. San Francisco picked up a $10MM club option on him, but his return from that hip procedure has taken longer than anticipated due to a shoulder flare-up and some blister troubles. He’s been quite sharp when healthy over the past three seasons, logging a 3.79 ERA, 22.8% strikeout rate and 6.9% walk rate in 394 1/3 innings between the Angels (2021) and Giants (2022-23). If Cobb can produce anywhere near that level in Cleveland, he’ll be a boon for a starting staff that has lacked a steadily productive veteran all season.
While Cobb was the only trade acquisition for Cleveland, he’s not the only midseason addition to the staff. Cleveland signed former Tigers and Giants southpaw Matthew Boyd to a big league deal earlier in the summer as he works his way back from Tommy John surgery. Boyd, 33, isn’t far from a potential debut himself. He’s now made four rehab starts, most recently tossing 3 2/3 innings with Columbus just yesterday. Boyd breezed through five innings on 64 pitches in Double-A during his third rehab stint and needed 63 pitches to get through yesterday’s 3 2/3 frames in Triple-A. He’s now pitched at three levels in Cleveland’s system and carries a pristine 1.15 ERA and 20-to-2 K/BB ratio in 15 2/3 innings.
Guardians Activate Eli Morgan, Designate Zak Kent
The Guardians announced some roster moves today, including the official signing of Matthew Boyd to a Major League deal, and then Boyd’s placement on the 15-day injured list as he continues to recover from Tommy John surgery. Right-hander Eli Morgan was also activated from the 15-day IL, while righty Darren McCaughan was optioned to Triple-A and righty Zak Kent was designated for assignment.
Debuting in the majors as a starter in 2021, Morgan has found a lot more success since moving to the bullpen, posting a 3.54 ERA in 145 innings for the Guardians from 2022-24. That includes a 1.64 ERA in 11 innings this year, though that impressive number is heavily tempered by a 5.47 SIERA, as Morgan’s secondary metrics include an 11.1% walk rate and a 15.6% strikeout rate. That K% is well below his 26.5% mark from 2022-23, though Morgan might be able to more fully get on track now that he has recovered from a month-long bout of elbow inflammation.
Cleveland acquired Kent from the Rangers this past March, in a trade that sent some extra international bonus pool money to Texas. Kent had spent his entire career in the Rangers’ system since being a ninth-round pick in the 2019 draft, but his time with Triple-A Columbus has consisted of just three appearances. Kent hasn’t pitched since April 14 due to a right elbow strain, so today’s transaction is likely a way for the Guards to move Kent off their 40-man roster and potentially move him to the big league 60-day IL.
This would give Kent the first MLB service time of his career, as he has yet to make his proper on-field big league debut. The righty has some solid minor league numbers (including a 2.73 ERA over 66 career Triple-A frames), but he has been hampered by injuries in each of the last three seasons.