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Steven Matz Weighing Multiple Offers, Expects To Sign This Week

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Nov. 23, 10:08 pm: Matz has at least one two-year offer in hand, reports Jon Morosi of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Nov. 23, 10:01 am: Matz is weighing offers from each of the Giants, Red Sox, Blue Jays, Tigers, Cubs, Cardinals, Angels and Mets, Heyman tweets. The Giants’ offer remains on the table even after re-signing DeSclafani.

Nov. 22: The free agent starting pitching market has moved very quickly over the offseason’s first few weeks, and it seems another domino could soon fall. Southpaw Steven Matz is likely to pick his destination before Thanksgiving, reports Joel Sherman of the New York Post (Twitter link).

Interest in Matz has been robust, with the Red Sox, incumbent Blue Jays, Mets, Dodgers, Cardinals and Angels among teams already rumored to have interest. Jon Heyman of the MLB Network adds the Tigers, Cubs and Giants to that mix. The Mets have put forth a formal offer, although they’re joined in that regard by seven other clubs, according to Anthony DiComo of MLB.com (on Twitter).

Matz is coming off a nice season in Toronto, rebounding from an awful 2020 campaign to toss 150 2/3 innings of 3.82 ERA ball. The 30-year-old didn’t miss too many bats, but he only walked 6.6% of opponents and induced grounders at a solid 45.5% clip. Matz’s 4.12 SIERA wasn’t quite as impressive as his ERA, but both his actual run prevention and peripherals have typically hovered right around 4.00.

That’s valuable mid-rotation production, although Matz has previously had some issues with the long ball. Home runs weren’t an issue in 2021, but he served up an astonishing 14 round-trippers in just 30 2/3 frames with the Mets in 2020. That showing seemingly marked for an ugly end to a generally solid tenure in Queens, but the New York front office apparently has interest in bringing him back into the fold after his bounceback showing this year.

Each of the Tigers, Cubs and Giants entered the offseason known to be targeting rotation help. The Cubs claimed Wade Miley off waivers from the division-rival Reds. Detroit has already signed Eduardo Rodríguez, while San Francisco has reunited with Anthony DeSclafani and are seemingly on the verge of a deal with Alex Wood. None of that trio has as marked a rotation need as they did just two weeks ago, but there’s enough uncertainty on all three clubs’ staffs that they can and probably will make another rotation addition of some sort this winter.

The Jays considered making Matz an $18.4MM qualifying offer but ultimately decided against it. Toronto won’t receive a compensatory pick if he were to sign elsewhere, then, while adding Matz wouldn’t cost another team a draft pick.

Cubs Acquire Harold Ramirez From Guardians

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The Cubs have acquired outfielder Harold Ramirez from the Guardians in exchange for cash, per a club announcement out of Chicago. Ramirez was one of seven players designated for assignment in Cleveland last Friday. The Cubs now have 38 players on their 40-man roster.

Ramirez, 27, made his big league debut with the Marlins in 2019 and earned quickly made himself into a Miami fan favorite with a mammoth first season in the Majors. In May 2019, Ramirez slashed .368/.419/.474 — understandably endearing himself to those who follow the Fish.

It’s been a steady decline since that point, however, as Ramirez has posted just .264/.299/.400 (86 wRC+). Ramirez has solid bat-to-ball skills but rarely walks and chases outside the zone far too often. Since 2019, Ramirez’s 43.6% chase rate on pitches off the plate is the ninth-highest mark among 340 players with at least 500 plate appearances. His .134 isolated power (slugging minus batting average) during that time ranks 281st in the same subset, placing him well shy of the league-average — particularly relative to his corner outfield peers.

Ramirez joins Michael Hermosillo as a right-handed-hitting bench option for the Cubs, though he doesn’t have the typical platoon splits one might expect. His numbers against lefties (.275/.315/.400, 92 wRC+) and righties (.270/.306/.408, 90 wRC+) are nearly identical. Defensively, Ramirez has appeared at all three outfield spots but is best-suited for work in either left field or right field.

Ramirez is out of minor league options, so the Cubs will either need to break camp with him on the Opening Day roster next year or else expose him to waivers. He’ll compete for a bench spot in Spring Training, but it also stands to reason that Chicago could be in the market for outfield upgrades this winter, which could complicate Ramirez’s path to a roster spot.

Quick Hits: Mets, A’s, Cubs

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The Mets current payroll already sits at about $185MM, but owner Steve Cohen would still rather add through free agency than deplete an already thin farm system by trading away prospects, per Deesha Thosar of the New York Daily News. Cohen’s comments were pretty telling as he introduced new GM Billy Eppler. Said Cohen, “We don’t really have a lot in our farm system to supplement what we need. It’s going to require spending. That’s what’s going to happen. I’ve let Billy know that I’m willing — for the right deals and right free agents — to go get the players we need. We want to be competitive.”

The Mets’ strategy appears to be to let walk the free agents who can net them draft picks (like Noah Syndergaard and Michael Conforto), while dipping back into free agency to replace their on-field production. That’s a sound team-building strategy, so long as the Mets are able to find the right free agents to round out the roster. From a forward-looking perspective, the added draft picks will certainly help in building a sustainable development engine, which should be the goal of every franchise. Elsewhere around the game…

  • The Athletics have made a move to purchase land in Las Vegas that could be home to a future stadium, per Matt Kawahara of the San Francisco Chronicle. The exact location hasn’t been revealed as the A’s continue on the “parallel paths” track for future planning, exploring their options in both Vegas and Oakland. As of now, this constitutes little more than another step in the A’s flirtation with Vegas. That said, it’s an important step. The A’s current stadium lease runs through 2024.
  • The Cubs struck quickly this winter to nab Wade Miley from the Reds. Miley joins Kyle Hendricks as the only two pitchers currently locked into starting spots for next season, per Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times. That’s actually a better foundation than the Cubs have had in recent seasons, at least if you buy into Miley’s breakout last season. As for the rest of the rotation, it’s currently a four-man stable auditioning for three open rotation spots. Adbert Alzolay, Justin Steele, Keegan Thompson, and Alec Mills will all compete for bulk innings next season, even if one or more of that quartet ultimately gets bumped into full-time bullpen roles.

Cubs Select Nelson Velazquez, Ethan Roberts

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The Cubs announced that they have selected the contracts of outfielder Nelson Velazquez and right-handed pitcher Ethan Roberts. The move protects both players against being selected by a rival team in this year’s Rule 5 draft. Chicago’s 40-man roster now has 37 spots accounted for.

Velazquez was a 5th-round pick for the Cubs back in 2017, and the book on him at the time was that he possessed above average tools across the board outside of a raw hit tool. That projection has largely held true in the young outfielder’s professional career, as he has posted a cumulative .259 batting average with more strikeouts (377) than games played (316). The 22-year-old’s selection though comes as little surprise on the heels of his strongest season yet, producing a .270/.333/.496 slash across two levels this past season, with the bulk of that production coming in his first look against Double-A pitching. Velazquez has further upped his stock with a tremendous .366/.467/.693 Fall League showing, even if the strikeouts remain an issue.

Roberts, a right-hander out of Tennessee Technological University, has taken his 4th round pedigree and steadily climbed through the minors with the Cubs. A reliever, the 24-year-old has ridden the strength of a cut fastball and plus command to generally strong run prevention numbers and strikeout totals. His Double-A performance this year was outstanding, yielding a 1.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts across 32 innings. Though a promotion to Triple-A didn’t go quite as well (4.50 ERA and 27 strikeouts in 22 innings), Roberts could be a near-term option for his Major League club.

Minor MLB Transactions: 11/18/21

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Some recent minor moves from around baseball:

  • The Orioles are re-signing righty Marcos Diplán to a minor league contract, reports Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com (Twitter link). He’ll receive an invitation to big league Spring Training. Diplán made his first 23 big league appearances this past season, working 30 frames of relief. The 25-year-old managed a respectable 4.50 ERA, but that came with an unimpressive 19.5% strikeout rate and an elevated 12.2% walk percentage. The O’s outrighted Diplán off the 40-man roster after the season, but he’ll return to the organization and look to pitch his way back onto the big league club next spring.
  • The Reds agreed to a minors pact with righty Connor Overton yesterday, according to a report from Robert Murray of FanSided (on Twitter). The 28-year-old made his MLB debut with the Blue Jays in August, then landed with the Pirates via waivers the following month. Between the two clubs, he tossed 15 1/3 innings of 4.70 ERA ball with roughly league average strikeout and walk numbers. Overton had a great showing with the Jays’ Triple-A affiliate, posting a 2.03 ERA in 57 2/3 frames — working mostly out of the bullpen.
  • The Cubs reached agreement on a minor league deal earlier this week with catcher Tyler Payne, per a report from Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times (Twitter link). Payne made his big league debut on the final day of the regular season, going hitless in two plate appearances. Chicago outrighted him off the 40-man roster after the season but they’ll bring the 29-year-old back to bolster their organizational depth behind the plate. The right-handed hitting Payne posted a .231/.291/.363 line over 234 plate appearances with Double-A Tennessee this year.

Cubs Hire Daniel Moskos As Assistant Pitching Coach

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The Cubs announced the hiring of former major leaguer Daniel Moskos as their assistant pitching coach. The 35-year-old has spent the past two seasons coaching in the Yankees’ farm system, but he’ll now get his first opportunity to join a big league staff.

Moskos is best known for his early-career playing days with the Pirates. Pittsburgh selected the southpaw out of Clemson University with the fourth overall pick of the 2007 draft. He was one of the Bucs’ top pitching prospects early in his pro career, but Moskos’ velocity backed up pretty early into his minor league tenure. By 2010, he’d been moved to the bullpen full-time, but he did contribute for Pittsburgh in 2011.

Working primarily as a situational reliever, Moskos tossed 24 1/3 innings of 2.96 ERA ball as a rookie. He didn’t miss many bats, though, and the Pirates waived him midway through the 2012 campaign. Moskos spent the next few seasons bouncing between teams’ Triple-A affiliates and made a comeback effort in the Mexican League in 2018, but he never got back to the bigs as a player.

He’ll now earn the opportunity to return to the major league level as a coach. Moskos will pair with pitching coach Tommy Hottovy to lead a Chicago pitching staff that ranked in the bottom ten in 2021 in ERA (4.88) and strikeout/walk rate differential (12.3 percentage points).

Russell Dorsey of the Chicago Sun-Times first reported Moskos’ hiring prior to the team announcement.

Injury/Health Notes: Britton, Oberg, Wieck

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Yankees GM Brian Cashman confirmed what most fans had already expected, telling reporters that “it’s probable you won’t see” Zack Britton in 2022 (link via Ken Davidoff of the New York Post). Cashman didn’t fully rule out the possibility that the lefty could return for a playoff push. The long-time Orioles closer and Yankees set-up man underwent reconstructive elbow surgery in September — something of a surprise at the time, as both club and player had only planned on a procedure to remove bone chips from his left elbow, but that procedure evidently revealed significant damage to Britton’s UCL.

The southpaw arrived in the Bronx from Baltimore in a July 2018 trade and had no problems shifting from closer to a set-up role, logging 25 innings of 2.88 ERA ball before posting a combined 1.90 ERA (and an elite 232 ERA+) across 80 1/3 innings between 2019 and ’20. His 2021 came off the rails, however, as his ERA ballooned to 5.89 behind a BB% spike to 17.1% (his career mark was 9.5% entering the season). Britton’s $14MM salary — which became guaranteed when the Yankees picked up his 2022 option in October 2020 — essentially becomes dead money. The news may mean a bigger role for 2021 deadline acquisition Joely Rodriguez, who re-signed with the Yankees for one-year, $2MM on Wednesday.

Some other notes on injury situations around the game:

  • Per The Athletic’s Nick Groke (Twitter link), righty Scott Oberg has undergone another procedure to further address issues arising from repeated blood clots in his arm. Though the righty reliever hasn’t seen a mound since 2019, Groke reports that the Colorado front office wants him in a Rockies uniform next year “even if he’s not able to pitch,” and Oberg has confirmed his desire to return. Oberg scouted and coached while on the IL in 2021, serving as something of a “bullpen Yoda,” per Groke. The Rockies may ask him to shift to that role more formally in 2022. Oberg has a solid 3.85 ERA (3.98 FIP) across 257 1/3 big-league innings spanning five seasons. The 31-year-old had planned to pitch in 2021 after undergoing thoracic surgery in September 2020 that doctors thought would keep the issue from recurring, but the issue returned following a March 2021 Spring Training appearance. As Danielle Allentuck of the Denver Gazette explained last month, Oberg spent a night in the ICU earlier this year ahead of an emergency surgery after his hand went numb and trainers couldn’t find a pulse in his wrist. This more recent procedure was planned, Groke notes.
  • The Cubs announced to reporters that left-handed reliever Brad Wieck has been cleared for all baseball activities following a heart ablation procedure to address a irregular heartbeat — the second such procedure he’s undergone in two years (Twitter link via Meghan Montemurro of the Chicago Tribune). The importance of Wieck’s numbers pale in comparison to his health, of course, but he was a stellar bullpen option for the Cubs through early July, when he didn’t allow a single earned run while striking out 28 (albeit alongside 10 walks) in 17 innings. For his career, the 30-year-old Wieck has a 3.77 ERA and high-end 35.9 K% in 59 2/3 innings across parts of four seasons with the Cubs and Padres.

Coaching Notes: Royals, Cubs, D-Backs

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The Royals announced two additions to their coaching staff last night. Keoni DeRenne is being hired as assistant hitting coach, while Damon Hollins will join the staff as first base coach. DeRenne, who previously spent time in the Pirates and Cubs organizations, has spent the past two seasons as Kansas City’s assistant hitting coordinator. Hollins, who appeared in parts of four big league seasons between 1998-2006, has been in the organization for more than a decade. He served as interim first base coach in 2020.

The latest on some other coaching situations around the game:

  • The Cubs are expected to hire Johnny Washington as assistant hitting coach, reports Sahadev Sharma of the Athletic. He’ll replace Chris Valaika, who was hired as Guardians’ hitting coach last week. Washington spent a few seasons coaching with the Padres when current Cubs’ bench coach Andy Green was San Diego’s manager. Sharma notes that he spent the 2021 campaign as the hitting coach with the Hanwha Eagles of the Korea Baseball Organization. Washington also garnered some consideration during the Angels’ 2019-20 managerial search, a job that eventually went to former Cubs’ skipper Joe Maddon.
  • Former big league outfielder Peter Bourjos has moved into coaching, as Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic reports that the Diamondbacks have hired the 34-year-old as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator. Bourjos appeared in parts of ten major league seasons as a player, suiting up for the Angels, Cardinals, Phillies, Rays and Braves between 2010-19. He has spent the past two years doing advance scouting work with the Rockies.

David Bote Expected To Miss Six Months After Undergoing Shoulder Surgery

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NOVEMBER 11: Bote seems unlikely to be ready for the start of next season. His surgery comes with a six-month recovery timeline, Gordon Wittenmyer of NBC Sports Chicago was among those to relay (Twitter link). Depending upon when he went under the knife, that’d seemingly keep him out until late April or early May if his recovery goes as planned.

NOVEMBER 9: Cubs utilityman David Bote recently underwent surgery on his left shoulder, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer told reporters (including Jordan Bastian of MLB.com) this evening. The extent of the procedure and a timetable for his recovery aren’t yet clear.

Bote separated that shoulder during a game in late May, an injury that cost him nearly two months of action. Largely because of that injury, Bote was limited to 327 plate appearances, slumping to a career-worst .199/.276/.330 line with eight home runs. He’d gotten off to a tough start even before the shoulder issue, but his .197/.273/.320 mark in 165 trips to the plate after returning from that IL stint marked a bit of a downturn even relative to his poor early-season numbers.

If he’s healthy heading into Spring Training, Bote figures to assume a utility role off the bench for manager David Ross. As things stand, the Cubs look likely to enter 2022 with a starting infield of Frank Schwindel, Nick Madrigal, Nico Hoerner and Patrick Wisdom. All those players hit right-handed, as does Bote, who’s likely to back up at multiple positions around the dirt. The 28-year-old is under contract through at least 2024 under the terms of the extension he signed in April 2019.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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The Cubs traded away their core rather than extend them, and now the club is light on financial commitments as well as good MLB players.  Is this winter the time to strike?

Guaranteed Contracts

  • Jason Heyward, RF: $44MM through 2023
  • Kyle Hendricks, SP: $29.5MM through 2023.  Includes $16MM club option for 2024
  • Wade Miley, SP: $10MM through 2022
  • David Bote, 2B/3B: $13MM through 2024.  Includes $7MM club option for 2025 and $7.6MM club option for ’26

Arbitration-Eligible Players (projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz)

Option Decisions

  • Wade Miley, SP: exercised $10MM club option after claiming off waivers from Reds

Free Agents

When the dust had settled after the July deadline, the Cubs had completed eight trades.  Of the nine players sent packing, seven are currently free agents, Trevor Williams might be non-tendered by the Mets, and the White Sox picked up Craig Kimbrel’s option.  Seeing Anthony Rizzo, Kris Bryant, and Javier Baez in different uniforms marked the end of an era, and now the Cubs have a bunch of extra prospects and a clean financial slate.  They’ve also got a new second-in command in the front office behind Jed Hoyer in Carter Hawkins, hired from Cleveland.  The Cubs went on to hire Ehsan Bokhari from the Astros as assistant GM and Greg Brown from the Rays as the new hitting coach.  Furthermore, longtime executive Jason McLeod is leaving, and Randy Bush is moving into an advisory role.

Hoyer said in late September, “We plan to be really active in free agency.”  Trying to decode GM-speak is always difficult, but Hoyer elaborated a few weeks later, saying, “We have money to spend this winter. But it’s really important that we do that in an intelligent way.”  Furthermore, “We need to be active in a way that we feel like we’re getting the right value for the dollars we’re spending, and we’re also making sure that we’re not hindering ourselves going forward with expenditures for right now.”  Hoyer went on to caution against “winning the offseason.”

MLBTR projected its top 12 free agents to each receive contracts of at least five years, with the exception of record-setting three-year deal for Max Scherzer.  When I try to translate spending money “intelligently” and “not hindering ourselves going forward,” I take it to mean that the Cubs won’t sign any of those top dozen or so free agents.  Hoyer has stated that the Cubs “have a lot of holes to fill on this roster,” which is a euphemism for a lack of present MLB talent.  The Cubs will shop at the top end of the free agent market again, but I don’t think it will be this winter.

So what will the Cubs do?  Hoyer made it clear that adding pitchers, particularly those with strikeout ability, is the team’s top priority.  So why, then, did the club commit $10MM to 35-year-old lefty Wade Miley, who the payroll-cutting Reds cast off after a fine season?  Miley possesses a 90 mile per hour fastball and the sixth-worst strikeout rate in baseball this year among those with at least 160 innings.  The answer is that Miley is still a solid pitcher, the only cost was his salary, and it’s a one-year commitment.  For a team with no rotation locks beyond fellow soft-tosser Kyle Hendricks, the Cubs took the opportunity that fell into their lap.  Miley’s best attribute is his ability to generate weak contact, as he ranked fourth in baseball in average exit velocity.

The Cubs may yet add two or three starting pitchers to the rotation.  As far as potential free agent targets, let’s cross off those seeking five-plus years or an immediate shot at a championship.  We’re left with Carlos Rodon, Eduardo Rodriguez, Alex Wood, Yusei Kikuchi, and Jon Gray atop the strikeout leaderboard.  We believe Rodriguez may require a four-year deal, plus Boston’s qualifying offer means the Cubs would sacrifice their second-round draft pick.  Noah Syndergaard comes with that same draft pick problem, if he even reaches the open market.  Rolling the dice on Rodon makes some level of sense, in that the Cubs wouldn’t be hampered by a deal anywhere from one to three years, and he offers possible ace-like pitching without a $100MM commitment if the club rolls the dice on his health.  Rodon is the moon shot option, while Wood, Kikuchi, Gray, and James Paxton are safer choices.  Free agency also offers pitchers with decent velocity if not the strikeout rate, like Steven Matz, Garrett Richards, and Anthony DeSclafani.

The trade market is also an option for the Cubs, who could offer one year of Willson Contreras, deal away some of their prospect capital, or just take on an unwanted contract.  Strikeout pitchers who could be available in trade include Blake Snell, Yu Darvish, Tyler Mahle, Pablo Lopez, Sonny Gray, Frankie Montas, Zac Gallen, Sean Manaea, Chris Paddack, Chris Bassitt, Caleb Smith, and Luis Castillo.  The Rays’ Tyler Glasnow makes sense for the Cubs, even though he won’t be recovered from Tommy John surgery until the 2023 season.  Indeed, such a trade was considered back in July.   The Tigers’ Matthew Boyd, who underwent flexor tendon surgery in September, may be non-tendered by the Tigers and also makes sense for the Cubs.  Back when the Cubs had some money to burn, they signed Drew Smyly to a two-year, $10MM deal off Tommy John surgery with an eye entirely on the second season.

Three of the best trade targets are on the Reds, who may be reluctant to trade a starter to the division-rival Cubs in addition to Miley.  The idea of the Cubs reacquiring Darvish one year after his trade somewhat kicked off their rebuild is too amusing not to mention.  After the Cubs shipped Darvish and backup catcher Victor Caratini to San Diego for four low-minors prospects and Zach Davies, Darvish went on to post a 2.44 ERA through the season’s first half.  He got blasted (mostly by home runs) in the second half to the tune of a 6.65 ERA.  Darvish is owed $37MM over the next two years, and the Cubs suddenly have the payroll flexibility the Padres desire.  Just saying, it’d be fun to see.

The bullpen is another clear need for the Cubs, who are left with guys like Codi Heuer and Rowan Wick atop their depth chart.  A few cheap free agent investments make sense here.

The Cubs’ infield is mostly set, with Willson Contreras at catcher, Frank Schwindel at first, Nick Madrigal at second, Nico Hoerner at short, and Patrick Wisdom at third.  While Schwindel (age 30) and Wisdom (29) aren’t likely long-term solutions, they’ve at least earned at-bats in 2022.  The Cubs also have to see if a Madrigal-Hoerner double-play combination has staying power.

With one year of control remaining on Contreras, the Cubs enter into the familiar “extend or trade” territory that led to their July sell-off.  The free agent market is weak at the position, and teams like the Yankees, Guardians, Rangers, Marlins, and Giants might be seeking catching help.

Ian Happ avoided a possible non-tender by posting a 147 wRC+ over the season’s final two months.  He figures to hold down left field, while Rafael Ortega can keep center field warm until the Cubs deem top prospect Brennen Davis ready.  In right, there’s Jason Heyward and the $44MM owed to him over the next two years.  After a brutal 68 wRC+ in 2021, the Cubs probably can’t justify a roster spot for Heyward through all of ’22 unless he manages at least league average hitting.  While the Cubs could explore a potential bad contract swap, they’re in more of a position to take on dead money as a means of accumulating yet more prospects.

One outfield addition that could make sense for the Cubs is right fielder Seiya Suzuki.  It’s nearly impossible to project what level of contract Suzuki will require if he’s posted by the Hiroshima Carp, but he’s only 27 years old and is one of the best players in Japan.  Signing him would be akin to the club’s $30MM deal for Jorge Soler, which occurred about eight months into Jed Hoyer’s tenure with the team.

We’re about to embark on a free agency experience unlike anything we’ve seen in recent years, with a probable lockout followed by a compressed signing period.  If some players fall through the cracks in that scenario, the Cubs are well-positioned to make opportunistic strikes with one-year offers.  With Heyward, Hendricks, Miley, David Bote, Contreras, and Happ, the Cubs have an estimated $63.7MM committed for six players.  As a team capable of sustaining a payroll in excess of $200MM, the Cubs are a sleeping giant right now.  In reference to the Giants, Hoyer said, “They certainly didn’t win the offseason last year. They won the season.”  While I can say with certainty the Cubs won’t win 107 games in 2022, it’s clear that the team would prefer to avoid the top end of free agency this winter, become a surprise contender, and then look to flex its financial muscle.

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