What Could Greg Maddux Bring?
Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux. The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation. Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.
Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year. His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003. The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball. At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance. Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.
Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver. He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth. He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.
If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job. For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart. He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future. The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres. Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.
Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season. It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.
White Sox Content With Current Team
I recently spoke with my best White Sox source. There’s nothing terribly exciting brewing with the club right now:
The Sox are content with their personnel this year, even more than a year ago. They’re happy with their depth and probably will not make any major deals before the deadline (ie, Andruw Jones is highly unlikely).
If they are to make a small trade, the White Sox match up well with sabermetric-type teams. Kenny Williams has made minor but helpful trades recently with Boston (David Riske) and Arizona (Alex Cintron). (And of course another not-so-small trade with Josh Byrnes for Javier Vazquez). It wouldn’t be surprising to see another small trade with that type of club. Chicago has been middle of the pack as far as relievers’ ERA, so the ‘pen may have room for upgrade.
On an unrelated note, my source also indicated that the Dodgers are "kicking a lot of tires right now" and may acquire bullpen help this week.
D-Rays Complete Deal With Dodgers
After successfully completing the Danys Baez trade in January, the Dodgers and Devil Rays have matched up again on a multi-player swap. This time L.A. sent Jae Seo, Dioner Navarro, and a PTBNL to the D-Rays for Toby Hall and Mark Hendrickson.
With a .258 batting average on balls in play, Hendrickson has been the 11th luckiest starter in baseball this year. Given the D-Rays’ team BABIP of .316, we can be fairly confident that the 32 year-old southpaw will not maintain his hit rate of 8.13 per nine. His peripherals are otherwise unimpressive – 3.4 BB/9, 5.1 K/9, 1.0 HR/9. Prior to this season, Hendrickson had allowed almost 11 hits per nine innings in the Majors. His control is better than this, but he’s in for a steep decline overall.
Despite an ERA near 6, I’m not sure Jae Seo is much worse than Hendrickson. Though no one seems to trust Seo to succeed, he has managed a 3.85 career ERA in almost 400 innings leading up to this season. Hendrickson doesn’t seem like a significant upgrade, especially half a season worth of him.
The exchange of Toby Hall for Dioner Navarro is another clear win for Tampa Bay. Navarro is still just 22 and hasn’t had a full trial in the Majors. Any backstop that young who can draw a walk 10% of the time has value.
I think this is a disappointing move for the Dodgers. While it’s true they may not miss Navarro or Seo, Hendrickson is not the #3 starter the team needs to run away with the NL West.
Billingsley Day!
Curious about this Chad Billingsley guy debuting for the Dodgers tonight? He’s one of the game’s best pitching prospects, and RotoAuthority has the details on him. Read up.
Also, click here to view his career stats and here to view his work in Triple A this year.
Do The Red Sox Need Izturis?
It is apparent that Dodgers shortstop Cesar Izturis is available, as the Dodgers don’t have an opening for him at shortstop. I would think that the overall health/performance shakiness of the entire infield would be enough for L.A. to keep Izturis around as a backup all season.
But the rumors persist, the main one being that the Red Sox are interested. I have to wonder why. The team already has a slick-fielding, walk-allergic shortstop, and his name is Alex Gonzalez. I admit, Gonzalez had a terrible April with the bat. But he’s had similar months in his career, so why not see if he can shake it off and hit his usual .240 with decent pop? That’s all that was expected in the first place.
Now, if the Red Sox were jonesing to acquire, say, Julio Lugo, I’d understand. A healthy Lugo would be worth a good three wins in the standings compared to Gonzo. But Cesar Izturis is a .261/.295/.338 career hitter, and he’s signed through 2007. Even if Gonzalez tanks and Izturis is himself, the team’s gain is minimal. The Dodgers are going to want something decent in return for Izturis, so why bother? They already gave up something decent to reacquire Tim Wakefield‘s personal catcher.
MLB Free Agents 2007: Eric Gagne
Recently I got to thinking about Eric Gagne. 30 years old. An unstoppable relief ace from 2002-04 (a 1.79 ERA and 13.3 K/9 over 247 innings. Imagine if he did that in one season as a starter! Roto Immortality.) Tommy John surgery in 1997 plus another cleanup type surgery last summer. A $10MM salary for 2006 with a $12MM option for 2007.
With Scott Boras as his agent, Gagne may elect to void that ’07 option. Or the Dodgers may simply choose not to exercise it. The Dodgers are one probably the only team in baseball with two established "closers" on the roster. No, Jose Mesa and Braden Looper don’t count. Danys Baez is an excellent backup that will allow the Dodgers to limit Gagne’s innings this season. But should a decent setup man emerge from Yhency Brazoban, Franquelis Osoria, and Jonathan Broxton, the Dodgers may just send Gagne packing this summer.
So which contending teams have questionable closers?
Red Sox. I have to assume Epstein doesn’t see Papelbon as a long-term reliever/closer candidate. He’ll probably be in the rotation by July, and Keith Foulke may give out by then. The pen has some depth, but lacks a relief ace. Many folks see Craig Hansen closing out games by year’s end, and I don’t disagree. Still, if he stumbles a bit in his first Major League season, the Sox could take a crack at Gagne.
White Sox. Bobby Jenks and Dustin Hermanson are wild cards right now. With only Neal Cotts and Cliff Politte as dependable options, Kenny Williams could go after the cream of the crop in Gagne. His trading chips will probably have to come from his Major League roster this time.
Rangers. Should Francisco Cordero happen to go down this year, I’m not sure if Texas will be content to give the ball to Akinori Otsuka, Joaquin Benoit, or Frank Francisco in the 9th inning.
Braves. This really wouldn’t be their style, though Gagne would really solidify the relief corps.
Phillies. What’s Plan B if Tom Gordon‘s elbow gives out? The Phils need Ryan Madson in the rotation and probably don’t trust Arthur Rhodes.
This is all just speculation, but watch the rumors fly this summer if Baez and Gagne are both pitching well and an injury to a starter or position player creates a need for the Dodgers.
Thanks to The Closer Watch for the current bullpen depth charts.
Dodgers Looking At Hidalgo?
With Jayson Werth possibly out til May, the Dodgers are in the market for a good fourth outfielder. Word is that Los Angeles is considering signing Richard Hidalgo to fill the role. The source is an emailer citing 1540 The Ticket, a radio station in California. Hidalgo was last seen entertaining offers to play in Japan.
Reportedly, the station’s related rumor is that the Dodgers could ship Joel Guzman and Greg Miller to the A’s for Barry Zito before picking up Hidalgo. Despite what Billy Beane has said, a source of mine tells me that at least twelve teams have inquired about the southpaw. Guzman is the Dodgers’ third best prospect according to Baseball America and ranks anywhere from 12th to 29th among all prospects.
Dodgers Still Interested In Dunn
I did some digging in conjunction with my Adam Dunn post, and received a little bit of info. A very reputable source tells me that "the Dodgers are always interested in him." More than one team has inquired about Dunn for sure. He tells me that any deal before the season begins is unlikely, and unfortunately couldn’t supply any specific names.
Dodger fans were quick to mention their team in the comments of the previous Dunn post; it seems he’s been on the team’s radar for some time now. Consider this as another source verifying their interest. Los Angeles has plenty of trading chips, especially if the Reds’ needs expand beyond starting pitching.
UPDATE: Word is that Dunn just signed a two-year contract worth more than $17MM with a third year option for $13MM. Based on projections, I’d say the Reds (or any other team) will be likely to exercise that 2008 option.
WEEI’s Tejada Rumor Making Rounds
The Dennis and Callahan Show on WEEI 850 in Boston broke out an improbable-sounding trade rumor this morning. Here’s the idea:
Dodgers send: Derek Lowe, Hee Seop Choi
Red Sox send: David Wells, Alex Gonzalez, Kevin Youkilis, Jon Lester, Tony Graffanino
Orioles send: Miguel Tejada, Luis Matos
Dodgers receive: Wells, Graffanino, Matos
Red Sox receive: Tejada, Choi
Orioles receive: Lowe, Gonzalez, Youkilis, Lester
In my humble opinion, there’s about zero chance of a deal like this going down. Then why am I posting about it? For one thing, I’ve received a host of emails about the possibility. So it seems that the people want to discuss it. Secondly, plenty of these players are likely to be dealt, just not in this combination.
Is Derek Lowe on the block? Certainly. I know for a fact that the Cubs and Phillies have expressed interest in him. I’m fairly certain he wouldn’t represent a big gain for the Orioles, however. The Phils could still try to hammer something out to obtain Lowe.
Hee Seop Choi has nowhere to play on the Dodgers, and I mentioned before that I think the Devil Rays should make a play for him. However, they’ve added Russell Branyan as a corner guy so it seems less likely at this point. There isn’t much of a market for a first baseman, but Choi still deserves a chance.
Wells is certainly likely to be dealt, and the Dodgers are a viable candidate. I mentioned yesterday that the Mets could consider Boomer as well.
Without doing any research, I have a feeling that a team can’t sign a free agent and trade him immediately. That’s why the Alex Gonzalez thing seems way off to me. Plus, Boston seemed to be trying to strengthen their defense. That is supposedly where Gonzalez’s value lies.
The Red Sox won’t be trading Youkilis and Lester. They’re far too valuable as building blocks. Graffanino should be on the move, but that’s a minor deal.
I wouldn’t be shocked to see Tejada dealt before the deadline, and a guy like Lester would have to be involved. There’s a fair chance Ronny Cedeno bombs and the Cubs try to re-engage the Orioles this summer. They’d be relying on the further development of minor leaguers to form an attractive package.
Matos, sure, he’ll end up somewhere. But the Dodgers don’t need him.
The Bengie Molina Sweepstakes
Bengie Molina has strangely emerged as neglected free agent, facing very little interest from teams and a possible one year deal. Coming off a career best .295/.336/.446 line, this is a curious situation.
Molina will be entering his age 32 season in 2006, and I’ve projected him at .289 with 17 HR next season. While his defense is no great shakes, one would think a few clubs would come out ahead in offering him a reasonable two-year pact. However, once you factor in defense, Molina ranked 15th among catchers in 2005 despite his solid showing at the plate. He presents very little improvement for most ballclubs, and that seems to explain the lack of interest.
Should the Blue Jays pursue Molina? Probably not. He was only marginally better than Gregg Zaun in 2005, and he’ll definitely cost more. I understand the idea is to platoon the players and have a sweet tandem like the Reds, but is Molina really going to want to do that?
Honestly, these are the teams that I think stand to gain at least one win by adding Molina:
Royals
Angels
Rockies
Padres
The Royals already tossed their free cash at other marginal free agents, although Molina would’ve made some sense if the club is ready to give up on John Buck. Most likely, they’ll keep Buck around longer than they should in order to pretend they didn’t get hosed in the Beltran trade.
The Angels really should’ve tried harder to bring Molina back. Jeff Mathis is a huge question mark on a team for which a win or two could determine whether they make the playoffs.
The Rockies don’t really have a good reason to go out and sign a free agent. But if I were Molina’s agent, I’d campaign hard to get him to Coors for a season. He could play there for $4MM, hit 20 HR, and get that big deal he was looking for. It’s been done before.
The Padres seem content with Doug Mirabelli and Dave Ross, who are both backups. Given their lousy division and legitimate shot at the playoffs, I’m surprised they haven’t chased Molina a bit more.
The Dodgers would probably be the best fit, and they have inquired about Molina. It would be a logical solution to bring Molina in for a year before the team evaluates the readiness of Dioner Navarro and Russell Martin.