Phillies Have $20MM To Burn
The Philadelphia Inquirer’s Todd Zolecki tallied up the Phillies’ commitments and determined that they have roughly $20MM free to spend on pitching, third base, and perhaps Aaron Rowand. Zolecki feels that the Phils would choose to let Rowand walk if they couldn’t fit it all in the budget.
Zolecki mentions Mike Lowell as a possibility for the hot corner; that’d run $8-12MM for ’08 depending on how you backload it. Lowell seems in line for at least two years, $22MM. Gordon Edes has speculated that it could require a three or four year commitment. The Phillies at least fall under the teams on Lowell’s list, it appears.
The other $10MM or so might all have to go toward a starting pitcher. The Phillies have Jamie Moyer, Adam Eaton, Cole Hamels, and Kyle Kendrick locked in. If the Phils don’t like the free agent market (they had interest in reacquiring Carlos Silva this summer), they could pursue Jon Garland or Dontrelle Willis via trade. The Phils have also scouted Anthony Reyes.
That doesn’t leave any money for Andruw Jones, despite recent speculation.
Marlins To Focus On Rotation, Defense
Marlins starters posted a 5.58 ERA this year, worst in the National League. The five with the most starts were Dontrelle Willis, Scott Olsen, Sergio Mitre, Byung-Hyun Kim, and Rick VandenHurk. Only Mitre was able to avoid posting an ERA above 5.00. Marlins president Larry Beinfest has labeled the rotation the team’s #1 area of need this winter.
Olsen and Mitre are cheap, and you can find positives with both. VandenHurk whiffed a batter per inning, and deserves a look in the #5 slot. Kim will depart via free agency. Josh Johnson will miss all of 2008 with Tommy John surgery. Anibal Sanchez hopes to be ready for Spring Training, but he’s a question mark coming off labrum surgery. Ricky Nolasco is also an unknown after a season lost to elbow problems.
What to do with Willis? Juan C. Rodriguez of the Florida Sun-Sentinel notes that he’s likely to earn around $8.25MM in 2008. That’s an added $2MM, plus another $4MM for Miguel Cabrera. If the payroll is to stay at $32MM, one of them has to go. Rodriguez argues that Willis is worth his salary even with reduced expectations. Plus, trading him now would be selling as low as possible.
The pitching staff would receive a huge boost by better defense, and that’s a close second on Beinfest’s list. The Marlins led the league in errors and were last in defensive efficiency. That last part will definitely inflate your pitchers’ ERAs.
It’s probably best not to trade Cabrera, but rather whip him into shape. If the Fish can’t get him to play a credible third base they should move him to first. Hanley could be a consideration for center field, and then Cabrera could be paired with perhaps a Cesar Izturis or Omar Vizquel on a cheap deal.
How would you fix the Marlins, given these two areas of need?
Rumors and Questions
If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason. After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.
Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:
- Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason. Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract. If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out. Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two. Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low. Who would you deal?
- Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones. When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know". Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya. But is he ready? Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure. What do you think? If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
- The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds. Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out. Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter. But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit. I’ve thought about it a lot a bit." Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds. I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
- Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League. Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Cubs a Good Fit for Barry’s Bat
Tim mentioned in this post that fielding know-it-all John Dewan thinks Barry Bonds can still play a tolerable outfield. Well, Bob Nightengale has broken the rumor-ice and brought two NL teams into the "Where Will Bonds Play Next" game:
Chicago and Florida.
The Cubbies, heavy in right handed hitters, would love a bat like Bonds’ in the lineup. They probably have the money, though they’ll add $10MM in payroll for ’08 just to maintain the current group. With Bonds’ regular need for time off, there’d still be plenty of playing time for Matt Murton.
Bonds, meanwhile, just may be the apple of Jeffrey Loria’s eye. The Florida Marlins owner was fined by the commissioners office last year for flying Bonds to New York in his personal jet. But if the Fish deal Dontrelle Willis in the offseason, it’d be hard to convince Bonds that they’re a serious contender.
Willis Wouldn’t Mind Playing In Philly
Not exactly a rumor, but worth a mention. This type of thing is common when teams meet up for a series. We saw it with Aaron Rowand when the White Sox played the Phillies this year.
Though the Phillies tattooed Dontrelle Willis Sunday night, Willis’s friend Jimmy Rollins and teammate Brett Myers were discussing how they’d love to see him in a Phillies uniform. Rollins suggested that Willis may be unmotivated in Florida. He also added that he’s asked Dontrelle and confirmed that the pitcher would not mind playing for Philadelphia. Of course, Willis doesn’t have any say in it.
I’ve heard estimates anywhere from $7-9MM for Willis’s arbitration reward this winter. He made $6.45MM in ’07. The Fish had a $30MM payroll on Opening Day of this year, and will owe Miguel Cabrera several million more in 2008. So Willis should account for 20-25% of the payroll.
Will the Marlins pay up for one more year and hope Willis rebuilds his value? Or will they opt to save the money now and trade him this winter? The latter scenario seems more likely. Even with his value at an all-time low it seems the Marlins could get one solid young player for Willis. I speculated recently that there was a tiny chance the Marlins simply non-tender him…but even my assigned 1 in 100 odds on that seem high.
Marlins GM Larry Beinfest can get one guy. Michael Bourn would be a fine target. Jim Salisbury suggests that the Marlins are fond of Shane Victorino. The Phillies are trying to settle their outfield situation for 2008; as you know, Aaron Rowand is a free agent this winter. Salisbury notes that the Phils might be gunshy about acquiring Willis given the whispers of possible health issues. They can’t have another Freddy Garcia trade.
Olsen Not Worried About Samson
Back in August, Marlins President David Samson said that Scott Olsen would not be welcome on the team if convicted on charges of DUI and resisting arrest. Almost a month later, Olsen responded to Samson’s remarks.
Olsen doesn’t think Samson has any say in player personnel decisions and didn’t seem too concerned with Samson’s comments. He said he wouldn’t be surprised to be dealt but expects to stay because he’s cheap.
The 22 year-old southpaw has had an awful sophomore season – all his peripheral stats have gone in the wrong direction. After posting a 4.04 ERA last year, his ERA has never gotten below 4.55 in any month this year. He’s still talented, and the Marlins would certainly be able find a few interested teams. But it just seems a bad time to trade him.
Rosenthal’s Latest Videos: Hunter, Piazza
A couple of Ken Rosenthal new videos – Inside Pitch and Full Count – are up at FOXSports.com. Here’s a summary of the rumor-related stuff.
- Rosenthal says Torii Hunter rejected a four-year, $56MM offer from the Twins. However, Hunter said today that he received no such offer. The Twins approached him about a contract extension, but he’ll wait until the winter to negotiate. At any rate, Rosenthal believes Hunter will end up in the $18MM per year territory occupied by comparables Ichiro Suzuki and Vernon Wells.
- Mike Piazza could be an option for the Tigers if Gary Sheffield’s shoulder problems linger. Currently Sheff is looking to return in early September. Piazza has cleared waivers, so he can be traded to any team. He hasn’t been hitting this month (.654 OPS).
- The Orioles have a couple of valuable trading chips in Kevin Millar and Steve Trachsel. Trax has cleared waivers; Millar is an unknown. Trachsel is back on the radar with a 2.53 August ERA (though he’s whiffed only five in 32 innings).
- Rosenthal says the Marlins will almost certainly explore Dontrelle Willis trades this winter.
Pirates Could Trade Duffy
Remember Chris Duffy? Before the 2007 season began, fantasy leaguers looked at his September ’06 numbers (.336/.403/.458, 12 steals) and cast him as a possible 100 run, 50 steal leadoff man for the Bucs.
Indeed, Duffy entering ’07 with the Pirates’ starting center field job. He suffered a sore neck in Spring Training, but shook it off to post a respectable .350 OBP in April. He slumped in May and was moved to the #2 hole. Then in mid-June he sprained his right hamstring. That led to an ankle sprain later that month. Now he’s got a shoulder problem and may miss the rest of the season.
With Nate McLouth having a fine August and top prospect Andrew McCutchen coming on strong, Duffy’s window with the Pirates may have closed. According to Dejan Kovacevic of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, the Pirates are ready to move on from Duffy. The implication is that they’ll trade him.
Whenever young center fielders come available, the Marlins are always mentioned. Are the Fish still on the prowl for a center fielder? Most likely – the Miami Herald mentioned earlier this month that the team had casual internal discussions about moving Hanley Ramirez to center field, but the current plan is to keep him at shortstop.
Olsen Conviction Could Lead To Trade
Marlins president David Samson indicated yesterday that starter Scott Olsen would not be welcome on the team if convicted of charges of DUI and resisting arrest. Apparently the felony designation is the tipping point for Samson, who seemingly would not boot Dontrelle Willis off the team if convicted of only a DUI.
To be fair, Willis has had just the one incident while Olsen has had at least six. Many teams could match up if the Marlins decide to trade Olsen this winter – the Diamondbacks, Phillies, Royals, and Devil Rays come to mind. The Fish probably still need a center fielder.
Marlins Willing To Listen On Miguel Olivo
For what it’s worth, the Marlins will apparently listen to offers for catcher Miguel Olivo. Olivo makes $2MM this year, and that will increase through arbitration next year. If the Fish can’t trade him, they might nontender him.
Olivo, 29, is allergic to walks. He’s drawn eight in 93 games this year, and just nine in 127 games last year. He does have above-average power for a backstop. Defensively, he’s gunned down more than 30% of those attempting to steal on a regular basis.
Originally with the White Sox, Olivo was sent to Seattle in the Freddy Garcia deal. The Mariners sent him to San Diego in ’05 for another catcher, Miguel Ojeda. The Friars decided not to offer Olivo a contract after the ’05 season and the Marlins signed him. He won the starting catching job in ’06 when Josh Willingham couldn’t hack it defensively. Olivo is probably miscast as a starter.