Long Shot: Willis Back To Cubs?
Will Carroll of Baseball Prospectus has an interesting note in today’s Rumor Mill:
"The Cubs also still covet Dontrelle Willis as "the one that got away" and–despite his not being on the market–Willis is one player the Cubs could get if Larry Beinfest suddenly changes his mind about that. Adding Felix Pie to Jacque Jones and Donald Veal would get it done, while not adding to the Cubs payroll."
Jim Hendry already tried to patch up one of the all-time classic Cub mistakes by signing Greg Maddux before the 2004 season. At least that departure didn’t happen under Hendry’s watch.
Back in March of 2002, Hendry traded Ryan Jorgensen, Jose Cueto, Julian Tavarez, and Willis to the Marlins for Matt Clement and Antonio Alfonseca. Where are they now?
- Jorgensen, a catcher, had a four-game cup of coffee for the Fish in ’05, and now toils for the Reds’ Triple A team.
- Cueto, a pitcher, never made it past Double A and finished off his career back in the Cubs’ system in ’04.
- Tavarez started 27 games for the 2002 Marlins, but his performance was worth only 0.4 wins. He left via free agency after the season to sign with the Pirates. Now he’s with Boston, of course.
- Clement provided a ton of value to the Cubs during 2002-04; he was worth about 17 wins over those three years according to Baseball Prospectus. He was worth 4.8 wins in 2003, but Willis was worth 5.8 in fewer innings. Getting Clement made this a respectable deal for Hendry, though in hindsight he would’ve rather just kept Willis. Clement signed a three-year deal with B Boston and succumbed to shoulder woes in Year 2 of the pact. He hopes to help Boston as a reliever in September, which should be interesting.
- Alfonseca was OK as the Cubs’ closer in ’02, saving 19 games. He was not helpful in ’03, and the Cubs let him go. Now he’s in the Phillies’ pen.
Back to the present day rumor. Jones, while hitting better of late, probably would not be missed by the Cubs. He’s still only slugging .382 in July. Veal was the Cubs’ best pitching prospect heading into the season but has taken a step backward in Double A. Veal has been control problems, though his arm has been described as "electric." Lefty starters who can touch 95 can be hard to find.
Pie, though, would be the gem of the deal and the player with the best shot at stardom. Literally – BP gives him a 30-40% chance at becoming a star player. He struggled mightily in his first 139 ABs with the Cubs, but he now owns Triple A pitching. He should be the Cubs’ starting center fielder for the next six years at least. Trading him for the declining Willis would create another "one that got away" situation, which seems perfectly Cub-like. Most likely nothing happens in the next two days, but we might revisit this rumor this winter.
Angels Out On Teixeira?
According to Mike DiGiovanna and Ben Bolch of the L.A. Times, the Angels are done trying to acquire Mark Teixeira. Casey Kotchman and Joe Saunders were agreed upon. The Angels wanted the Rangers to settle on Terry Evans or Nathan Haynes as the third player. The Rangers, however, wanted one of Brandon Wood, Nick Adenhart, Howie Kendrick, and Ervin Santana.
Perhaps there is some middle ground, like a Hank Conger, Sean Rodriguez, or Erick Aybar? The L.A. Times says the door is not completely closed on Teixeira but the Angels won’t relent to Jon Daniels’ list.
Meanwhile, the L.A. Daily News sings a different tune. Doug Padilla suggests an offer of Kotchman, Adenhart, and Reggie Willits. He does not believe the talks to be dead.
Jermaine Dye or Mike Piazza look like the logical alternatives for the Angels. Buster Olney believes Piazza to be a fine idea, and I agree. Interestingly, the Angels kicked the tires of Miguel Cabrera but were rebuffed.
Teixeira may now be left to the Braves, Dodgers, and Red Sox. I still expect a deal to be made. The sticking point for an Atlanta appears to be John Schuerholz’s demand to get a solid reliever back with Teixeira if he is to include Elvis Andrus.
Stark’s Latest: Teixeira, Dotel
Jayson Stark has updated his big ol’ rumor post over at ESPN.com. Some highlights:
- Stark believes Mark Teixeira to the Braves or Angels is "almost certainly going to happen." The Angels’ willingness to offer Joe Saunders instead of Ervin Santana is seen as a big plus. Meanwhile the Braves want the Rangers to tack C.J. Wilson onto their trade but Texas is resisting. Stark’s update counteracts Will Carroll’s latest; Will recently wrote: "It’s looking more and more like Mark Teixeira is going to stay a Ranger." You decide.
- Toss a few more scenarios into the Octavio Dotel mix: to the Red Sox for David Murphy, or to the Mariners for Wladimir Balentien. Big difference there.
- Stark calls Mark Loretta a "very big name to watch." Hmmm, maybe this trade deadline is lamer than I realized.
- OK, the market is now open on Houston’s relievers.
- The Marlins would be happy to trade Armando Benitez or Byung-Hyun Kim. Both would need to shake off major control problems to be of any use.
- Stark says to forget about trades of Daniel Cabrera, Joe Blanton, Richie Sexson, Livan Hernandez, Dontrelle Willis, Todd Helton, Aaron Rowand, and Noah Lowry. C’mon now, that’s no fun. Something tells me the rumors on some of this group won’t disappear, so it’s all good.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Dunn, Wheeler, Izzy
Ken Rosenthal posted a new column last night, and has updated it very recently. I’ve already spoken about the Teixeira stuff, but there’s other good material in there too.
- Some of the wilder speculation out there has been that the Twins might trade Torii Hunter or Johan Santana if they decide they’re out of it. Various Baseball Prospectus reports put the Twins’ playoff chances between 5-10%. Rosenthal debunks the idea that Minnesota would shop Hunter without first making him an offer, and keeping Santana for at least 2008 makes sense. Plus, Santana has a no-trade clause.
- Rosenthal does have some Twins for us who might be traded: Luis Castillo and Carlos Silva. Castillo has already been connected to the Mets in rumors, though Silva is a new one. One could definitely envision Silva’s style working in the National League (I know, I say that a lot). There was a recent Silva to Atlanta rumor, though Silva’s agent seems to have debunked it.
- Rosenthal says Dontrelle Willis is not available. Perhaps he and Tim Brown will engage in fisticuffs over this disagreement.
- The Diamondbacks have kicked the tires on Adam Dunn. He might make sense as a rental – the D’Backs playoff changes sit between 16-27%, worth fighting for. No doubt they’ve got a stable of young players to offer.
- Rosenthal says the Astros have yet to receive interest on the Lidge/Wheeler/Qualls troika, while Jayson Stark said yesterday that the Astros hadn’t opened shop on them. Thunderdome match #2, Rosenthal vs. Stark. Assuming Ken survives Tim Brown. Anyway, word is that the Rockies have their eye on Wheeler.
- Parties interested in Zack Greinke: Diamondbacks, Dodgers, Braves, and Cubs. This gels with Dan Graziano’s findings. Of course, trading a player like Greinke requires an equally talented youngster in return.
- The Royals may not be able to do better than Cleveland’s Ben Francisco as a bounty for Octavio Dotel. More on him in a separate post.
- Trades of Joe Blanton and Huston Street are "highly unlikely." So you’re saying there’s a chance?
- The chances of the Cardinals trading Jason Isringhausen are described as "remote." The Cards would have a hard time replacing him next year; he’s got a reasonable $8MM option. He also has no-trade protection, so he’d probably want a better extension if he was to accept a trade.
Molony’s Latest: Willis, Encarnacion, Sowers
MLB.com’s Jim Molony has his daily rumor summary up; check it out. New rumors:
- Molony’s sources say the Marlins are now listening to offers for Dontrelle Willis. Might as well – what if the Mariners decide to offer Adam Jones? Many folks remain enamored of Willis’s talent, if not his recent numbers.
- The Cardinals could shop Russ Springer or Juan Encarnacion. Springer is unlikely to be traded, however, because he has his son going to a specific school in St. Louis and the Cardinals respect that. Encarnacion is hitting decently at .293/.329/.471; it might be high time to unload the $6.5MM he’s owed next year.
- Something seems to be going on in Cleveland; GM Mark Shapiro has been in Buffalo watching Jeremy Sowers and Aaron Laffey. Laffey was nearly called up recently. Not much talk about trading Sowers previously, but he might be an interesting chip. He’s similar to Kevin Slowey. They might find success in the NL.
- The Tigers sent scouts to watch Joe Koshansky and Ian Stewart of the Rockies (rumor originated in the Denver Post). Not sure how those two teams match up, but a cheap Koshansky might be worth a look for Detroit at first base next year. Unless Carlos Guillen moves over.
Mariners Watching Starters
UPDATE: Hickey writes that the Mariners have also scouted Kyle Lohse, Matt Morris, Jason Johnson (thought he went to Japan), and Octavio Dotel. However, a deal seems unlikely because none of those players are worth top Mariner prospects.
According to Jim Hickey of the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners have been scouting all kinds of available and not-so-available starters lately.
- The Mariners have been scouting the White Sox "religiously" lately. If they saw Javier Vazquez beat the Tigers on Tuesday, they came away impressed. (However, Vazquez can and probably would veto a trade to the AL or NL West). They were on hand to watch Jose Contreras tonight; the Tigers had batting practice with him and his ERA is up to 6.22. Did you hear that? That was the sound of Contreras’ remaining ounce of trade value evaporating.
- As you know, the Ms watched Dontrelle Willis on Monday. Compared to Contreras, Willis pitched well – four earned runs, nearly seven innings.
- The Ms also had a scout on hand to see Livan Hernandez twirl a gem over the Marlins on Tuesday. Hey, at least he takes the ball every fifth day. That has to be worth something.
- Hickey says Seattle has also been monitoring the Astros, perhaps in hope of acquiring Dan Wheeler or Chad Qualls. He speculates that Wandy Rodriguez would be a coup for the Mariners. Wand-Rod has thrown up stinkers in his last two outings but tossed a complete game shutout over the Mets in the game prior. He’s inconsistent like that. The Astros’ #2 starter for 2008 wouldn’t come cheap.
Tim Brown’s Latest: Willis, Hillenbrand
Yahoo’s Tim Brown has some new material up:
- So is Dontrelle Willis available or isn’t he? Brown says Marlins GM Larry Beinfest is privately talking about him with other clubs. Brown rattles off the Yankees, Dodgers, Mariners, Diamondbacks, and Indians as interested parties. Nonetheless, I think the time has passed for the Marlins to get a truly impressive bounty for their ace.
- Shea Hillenbrand will sign with either the Padres or one other unknown NL team. Maybe to the Nationals as Dmitri Young‘s replacement?
- Yes, Bobby Kielty has been DFA’d and the Red Sox are considering him. Typically, the 31 year-old switch-hitter is able to draw a few walks and hit lefties. He can handle the corner outfield positions but hasn’t played center with any regularity since 2002.
Unfounded Rumors
Would you think less of me if I busted out the old Unfounded Rumors category? I know the #1 request at MLBTR is More Rumors. So why not toss a few unfounded ones out there? These are 100% unconfirmed, shaky rumors that have crossed my inbox. Believe them at your own risk.
But since 99% of deadline rumors don’t happen anyway, why not put ’em out there for discussion?
- Word is that FedEx was at Reggie Sanders‘ house today, packing up his stuff. Not sure where he’s headed. This one will have more substance if Sanders is nowhere to be found for tonight’s game against the Yankees.
- If the Cubs somehow traded for Adam Dunn, where would they put him? Hard to imagine.
- Some folks have suggested that the Cubs will acquire Xavier Nady, but Bucco Blog shoots it down.
- Dontrelle Willis has been awful this month; there are whispers that he may need Tommy John surgery. Willis did experience forearm tightness in June, which is often a precursor to or euphemism for elbow problems. Despite his performance and the proclamations that he’s not available, a Mariners’ scout watched him on Monday.
- One rumor that is picking up a lot of steam is that I will be joining MetsBlog Radio tonight at 6pm CST to talk rumors for a half hour.
Dontrelle Willis Staying Put
According to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, Dontrelle Willis is not available right now. The Marlins aren’t having discussions about him, and scouts are not watching him pitch.
I believe Juan, so keep this article in mind when things heat up around Tuesday’s deadline. Rumors will fly fast and furious and I’m sure a few will erroneously involve Willis.
Even if he were available, I probably wouldn’t name Willis the best available starter. As I’ve said, that’s probably Joe Blanton. Knowing Billy Beane, he would at least field offers. Well, I don’t know Billy personally but that’s my guess. If you wanted a poor man’s Blanton, you might be able to pry Noah Lowry away from the Giants for some very good position player prospects. We also have Jon Garland from the White Sox, a third solid starter who does not miss bats. If you want strikeout stuff you’d have to chase Javier Vazquez, whose availability seems very limited.
Marlins Could Trade Scott Olsen
23 year-old southpaw Scott Olsen is very talented, but he’s earned a reputation as a bit of a hothead. Take a look at his history: six incidents, including his Saturday arrest. Performance is 99% of what matters in baseball, though, so Olsen would be very popular on the trade market. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post speculates that the Marlins could make a push to trade him.
The Marlins still need a center fielder, so that would figure to be the top target in an Olsen trade. They had previously entertained sending Olsen to the Devil Rays for B.J. Upton or Joey Gathright. The chance for Upton has passed, and Gathright is a Royal now. I imagine the Royals would make the move in a heartbeat.
Here’s a scenario that might make sense for both teams: Olsen to the Diamondbacks for Chris Young. Young should become a very solid center fielder, but he’s likely to be overtaken by Justin Upton in 2008. The Diamondbacks have been said to be on the lookout for young pitching, and Olsen is perfect.
The Marlins are kicking around moving Hanley Ramirez to center field next year, though that would just create a new hole at shortstop.
Of course I have to make the obligatory Jarrod Saltalamacchia reference. Olsen would be a fine addition to Atlanta’s staff, and the Marlins would replace Miguel Olivo as his salary starts to rise.
Can you think of any other reasonable scenarios? Leave ’em in the comments.