All Eyes On Contreras
Buster Olney says that Jose Contreras may be the best available starting pitcher at the moment, which speaks to how weak the market is. Olney lists the Cubs, Braves, Marlins, Indians, and Phillies as teams on hand to watch his six inning, five run performance Sunday night in Baltimore.
To call Contreras the best available indicates that Javier Vazquez is off the market. Contreras’s challengers still include Matt Morris, Dontrelle Willis, and Jason Jennings. If the Pirates were to inexplicably consider trading Ian Snell, he’d easily jump to the forefront. That he’s even available is a dubious rumor at this point.
As for Contreras, his junk might work over in the NL. Maybe that’s why four of the five teams watching his start reside in that league. Olney’s scout said he was working at 87-91, though he did touch 94 last night.
Contreras makes another $4MM this year, $10MM in ’08, and another $10MM in ’09. That shouldn’t scare off too many clubs. Maybe the Marlins. With a 2-4% chance at making the playoffs this year the Marlins would be acquiring Contreras more for 2008-09.
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: A-Rod, Willis
There’s a new video up with Ken Rosenthal contributing. Let’s see what the man had to say this time:
- According to Rosenthal, Alex Rodriguez will opt out, and he will get $30MM a year. The coverage of this story is just beginning, unfortunately.
- The Marlins have been telling teams they won’t move Dontrelle Willis; they think they’re still in contention. The Fish are 7.5 out in the NL East and 8 out for the Wild Card. The simulations I’ve seen give the Marlins a 1-3% chance at making the playoffs. Would Willis command a stronger package of prospects if dealt now or during the offseason? Dave George thinks his stock will continue to fall, and he needs a change of scenery (Willis heard boos at home for maybe the first time last night). However, Rosenthal’s contention is supported by Juan C. Rodriguez – apparently, only one scout was at Willis’s start last night (a Royals guy who lives in Florida anyway).
Mariners After Dontrelle Willis?
According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, Dontrelle Willis-to-Seattle buzz is starting to heat up. Willis could slide right in with Felix Hernandez to form a solid 1-2 punch atop the Mariners’ rotation.
Baker pretty much covers all the analysis angles and scenarios in his blog posting. The Mariners have plenty of players who could interest the Marlins: Jeremy Reed, Jeff Clement, and/or Wladimir Balentien. Baker does not think Adam Jones would be necessary to get a deal done, and the Mariners wouldn’t part with him anyway. (By the way, click here to see my fantasy analysis of Jones).
It’s an odd time to trade Dontrelle, as his value is pretty low with his performance and forearm issues. Willis just feels like a better pitcher than he actually is, doesn’t he? As Baker says, the Ms would be gambling on Willis returning to form. Better to gamble a few unproven prospects than seven years and $126MM.
It seems that former Willis contenders like the Mets and perhaps Braves might be out of the running. Kevin Kernan of the New York Times says the Marlins won’t trade Willis within the NL East, and most likely he’ll head west.
But before purchasing your custom-made Willis Mariners jersey, consider that the Dodgers, Rockies, and Diamondbacks have all expressed interest in him before. And those teams are kind of west of some stuff.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Willis, Dunn, Griffey
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up today. Not too much brand new material but worth discussing nonetheless.
- Rosenthal opines that Dontrelle Willis is currently at his peak value. Mark Buehrle is off the market. Dontrelle is seemingly healthy and under control through 2009. There was a scare, though, when Willis had a sore forearm in June. Rosenthal points out that despite mediocre stats the past couple of seasons, Willis still has an ace aura about him. That’s probably because of his near-Cy Young in ’05 and the way he took the league by storm in ’03. The Mets, Mariners, Dodgers, Red Sox, Rockies, and Diamondbacks could all be interested in the Marlins start shopping Willis. Larry Beinfest seems to be leaning against it though.
- The Padres may still consider trading for Adam Dunn, but will see how Milton Bradley plays over the next few weeks first. The Reds and Padres aren’t a great match, as the Padres don’t have many big-name prospects. Maybe something like Clay Hensley plus Chase Headley (those names are oddly similar), if the Reds are sour on Edwin Encarnacion?
- Many members of the Mariners’ front office would like to bring Ken Griffey Jr. back, but CEO Howard Lincoln "harbors resentment over Griffey’s departure in 2000." That makes it sound like Griffey left via free agency, but of course he was actually traded to the Reds. I did a little digging on that situation, and found that the Mariners offered Griffey an eight-year, $140MM contract in September of 1999. Junior turned that down and requested a trade in November, citing a desire to play closer to his Orlando home. Death threats also turned him off from Seattle. At that time he named the Reds, Braves, Astros, Indians, and Mets as teams he’d like to play for. By December Griffey decided he’d only accept a trade to Cincinnati – he even vetoed a trade to the Mets.
- If healthy, David Wells plans to pitch again in ’08. The Padres probably wouldn’t mind having him back.
Marlins, Brewers Scouting White Sox
According to Mark Gonzales of the Chicago Tribune, the Marlins and Brewers have been scouting the White Sox lately.
Gonzales believes the Marlins may be looking at Triple A center fielder Brian Anderson. He mentions that the Fish have been fans of BA for quite a while. Anderson is currently a member of the Charlotte Knights, but did not play in today’s blowout against Pawtucket. Anderson is 25 now and hitting just .239/.302/.364 in Triple A. A fresh start in a new organization could help.
Gonzales says the Brewers have been scouting Chicago’s pitching. Not sure how a team that just demoted Yovani Gallardo to the bullpen would be in need of pitching, but you can never have too much.
Jacque Jones Update
Jacque Jones is still a Cub, with yesterday’s Marlins deal quashed. Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune writes that Tribune owner Sam Zell was not the reason the trade died, contrary to other reports. Money caused the snag, but not Zell. Sullivan says talks with the Marlins are unlikely to be revisited.
On a side note, all of the Tribune baseball writers are blogging! They must be thrilled.
Gordon Wittenmyer of the Sun-Times says Cubs GM Jim Hendry has had recent talks with the Padres, Rangers, White Sox, and others. Jones had a pinch-hitting appearance in today’s game, grounding out to Todd Helton.
Marlins Trade For Jacque Jones Nearly Dead
UPDATE: Ken Rosenthal says this deal has pretty much died. I knew $1MM sounded too good to be true for the Cubs. Scott Miller of CBS Sportsline has more details: the Cubs were set to pay roughly 97% of Jones’ remaining salary but the deal unraveled at the Commissioner’s Office. It seems that the Cubs couldn’t get approval there because of their impending sale.
PREVIOUS RUMOR:
According to Juan C. Rodriguez of the South Florida Sun-Sentinel, the Marlins have traded for outfielder Jacque Jones. Joe Capozzi of the Palm Beach Post says the Cubs are kicking in only $1MM of the $7.1MM remaining on Jones’ contract. The Cubs will get a pitcher from Class A Greensboro, possibly 23 year-old lefty Graham Taylor.
The Cubs’ motivation is to free up a roster spot while paying less than half the money still owed to Jones. Jim Hendry got the best of Larry Beinfest in the Derrek Lee/Hee Seop Choi deal, but Beinfest exacted his revenge two years later by stealing three useful pitchers for Juan Pierre.
If Jones can play a credible center field, the Marlins will come out ahead here. My guess is that Jones will return to his career offensive levels once out of the Chicago spotlight. He should still be benched against lefties though.
Mets After Jose Contreras
The Mets have kicked the tires on Mark Buehrle, but Jose Contreras may be a more likely acquisition according to the Newark Star-Ledger. The Mets would prefer not to trade younger players for a rental, and may turn to Contreras because he’s signed through 2009. I’m sure Kenny Williams would have no problem with that. I think Contreras would handle a return to New York well. Lastings Milledge would be more than enough for Contreras, in my mind.
Dan Graziano’s article also confirms that the Braves and Red Sox have been pushing hard for Buehrle. He says there was "no indication last night that the Yankees were interested in Buehrle." Of course, Boston’s interest could change that.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have inquired on both Dontrelle Willis and Buehrle and found the price unreasonable. They’re going to need to acquire a starter one way or another.
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.