MLBTR Polls

Rays reliever Grant Balfour opted to roll the dice this winter when he declined the club's offer for arbitration.  Roughly one month later, Balfour remains on the open market.  Earlier this week, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports wrote that the right-hander isn't being shut out because of his Type A status because 21 of the 30 teams could not do worse than have to give up a second-rounder.  Rather, it seems that the Australian-born hurler is still available because he is after a multi-year contract.

Chances are, he will get job security that he is after, says Rosenthal.  Teams that finished in the bottom half of the standings cannot lose their first-round picks for a Type A free agent.  Teams that have already lost their top selection for a Type A like the Red Sox, Angels, Tigers, Nationals, White Sox, and Phillies, would only lose a second-rounder.  The price for Balfour could even be as low as a third-rounder if any of those clubs opt to sign one of the other available Type As. 

Even though several attractive relief options are now off of the board, there are still plenty of interesting names available.  Did Balfour misjudge the market, or will he land the multi-year pact that he's after?

After signing free agent Cliff Lee to a five-year, $120MM pact, it's no secret that the Phillies need to trim payroll.  In fact, if they don't move well-compensated pitcher Joe Blanton, they'll have no room to make any acquisitions at the trade deadline, a source tells Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.  The right-hander is due $8.5MM over each of the next two seasons.

The market for Blanton should become more clear once Carl Pavano, now the market's top free agent starter, signs with a club.  Blanton is five years Pavano's junior and wouldn't be a bad consolation prize for any team.  It's also possible that the Phillies could hang on to the 30-year-old, but as Rosenthal pointed out, it would handcuff the club.  With the teams that have been linked to Pavano as a guide, where do you envision Blanton winding up?

We've already seen four nine-figure deals this offseason and Troy Tulowitzki, Carl Crawford, Jayson Werth and Cliff Lee may have company in the $100MM club before long.

MVP winners Albert Pujols, Joey Votto and Josh Hamilton are extension candidates. Scott Boras could surprise us all by finding $100MM out there for Adrian Beltre or negotiating a nine-figure extension for Carlos Gonzalez or even Jered Weaver. Prince Fielder and Jose Reyes are going to hit free agency after the 2011 season and C.C. Sabathia has an opt-out clause looming, so they may be seeking massive contracts within the year.

Let's vote on the next nine-figure deal (ignoring Adrian Gonzalez, since there seems to be a good chance that the Red Sox extend him once the season begins). Players are listed alphabetically.

Multiyear contracts are on the rise in general, and one group in particular has benefitted from the trend: relief pitchers. As MLBTR's free agent tracker shows, 11 relievers have signed multiyear deals so far this offseason. Many of these relievers will pick up saves in 2011, but only one of them – Mariano Rivera – is sure to be his team's closer next year. 

Yahoo's Jeff Passan argues that GMs "make the same silly mistake year after year" when they sign relievers to multiyear deals. Dave Cameron of FanGraphs recently explained convincingly that other than Rivera, relievers on multiyear deals have simply not produced.

But if a GM refuses to offer multiyear deals, the best free agents will sign elsewhere. Teams with money can often afford to gamble on relievers, even though their performance is volatile.

Look at the GMs who have signed relievers to multiyear deals: Ned Colletti and Tony Reagins have led their clubs to the League Championship Series in recent years. And every other GM who has signed a reliever to a multiyear deal this winter has led a team to the World Series. It would be overly simplistic to say these executives don't know what they're doing, but we can still ask the question…