Poll: Which Non-Tender Will Provide Biggest Benefit?
Every year players are non-tendered for many reasons; perhaps they’re injured, have grown too expensive, or just simply aren’t performing well. Whatever the case, these players add sometimes unexpected options to the free agent market and often yield bargain results.
Kelly Johnson has to be figured as the prize of last offseason’s non-tender crop. The Braves decided to cut the then 27-year-old loose, and he rewarded the Diamondbacks with a .284/.370/.486 line. Johnson belted 26 home runs, swiped 13 bags, played nearly 1300 innings of strong defense, and totaled 6 WAR according to Fangraphs — all for $2.35MM.
Let’s not forget Mike Rizzo’s dealings either. The Nats’ GM signed Matt Capps for just $3.5MM and flipped him to the Twins at the deadline to receive Wilson Ramos and Joe Testa. Ramos was ranked as the Twins’ #4 prospect and the game’s #58 prospect entering the 2010 season. Not a bad ROI for a low-risk move on Rizzo’s part.
According to MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker, 52 players were non-tendered this year. Some of the more interesting cases include Bobby Jenks (now in Boston), Russell Martin (now a Yankee), Joel Peralta (now a Ray), Jack Cust (now a Mariner), Dustin Moseley (now a Padre), and George Sherrill (now a Brave). All six of these players saw either strong 2010 seasons or have experienced success at the Major League level. Looking at this season and beyond, let’s pose the question:
Poll: Chris Carpenter’s Future
The month of February hasn’t been kind to the Cardinals. First they failed to reach an agreement with Albert Pujols on a long-term contract, then they lost Nick Punto for up to 12 weeks with a hernia, and then they lost Adam Wainwright to Tommy John surgery. That’s enough bad news to last St. Louis the season, nevermind Spring Training.
In the wake of Wainwright’s injury, it’s been speculated that Chris Carpenter could become available in a trade at some point should the Cardinals fall out of contention. Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports reported that Carpenter wouldn’t stand in the way of a deal (he can veto any trade thanks to his ten-and-five rights), and Joel Sherman of The New York Post suggested the right-hander could be a fit for the pitching-starved Yankees.
As great as Carpenter is, he’s neither young nor cheap. He’ll turn 36 in April and his contract guarantees him $15MM this season, after which a $15MM club option ($1MM buyout) comes into play. With Pujols’ impending free agency hanging over their heads and two more seasons until Kyle Lohse‘s $12.2MM annual salary comes off the books, it’s possible the Cardinals will look to shed Carpenter’s salary and use that money towards keeping their superstar first baseman. It’s just a drop in the bucket compared to the nine-figure contract Pujols will command, but every little bit helps.
Carpenter has pitched to a 2.74 ERA with 6.7 K/9, 2.1 BB/9, and a 52.7% ground ball rate since coming back from Tommy John surgery in late 2008. He’s shown no ill-effects from the procedure, throwing at least 192 innings in each of the last two seasons. If made available, teams would be lining up to acquire him, and not just the Yankees either. However, it’s possible that Carpenter would want his 2012 option picked up in exchange for agreeing to a trade, which could his limit market.
It seems unlikely that St. Louis would look to trade pitching – quality pitching at that – after Wainwright’s injury, but moving Carpenter would have to at least be considered if they fall out of contention at some point. The potential return in the form of young players and cash savings could be too good to pass up.
What will happen with Chris Carpenter in 2011?
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He'll be traded 38% (3,496)
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He'll stay with the Cardinals and they'll pick up his option 37% (3,406)
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He'll stay with the Cardinals but they won't pick up his option 24% (2,182)
Total votes: 9,084
Poll: Best Move Of The Offseason
Pitchers and position players have poured into camps spread across Florida and Arizona this week, officially bringing an end to the 2010-2011 offseason. We saw several monster free agent contracts handed out this winter and quite a few blockbuster trades, perhaps more than we’re accustomed too. Multiyear contracts buying out arbitration and free agent years also increased in popularity.
Our Transaction Tracker shows every move completed this offseason, whether it be a trade, free agent signing, contract extension, or even a waiver claim. Some clubs improved by leaps and bounds, others made small, incremental steps. Everyone is in first place today, and we’re still about five weeks from seeing these moves actually impact the standings. That’s never stopped us from judging them though…
What was the best move of the offseason?
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Phillies sign Cliff Lee 26% (6,131)
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Red Sox acquire Adrian Gonzalez 20% (4,615)
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Blue Jays trade Vernon Wells 18% (4,218)
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Brewers acquire Zack Greinke 11% (2,489)
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Braves acquire Dan Uggla 7% (1,596)
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Red Sox sign Carl Crawford 6% (1,440)
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Another move not listed 4% (861)
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White Sox sign Adam Dunn 3% (734)
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Tigers sign Victor Martinez 2% (393)
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Rockies extend Troy Tulowitzki 1% (273)
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Rays sign Manny Ramirez 1% (257)
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Rangers sign Adrian Beltre 1% (224)
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Nationals sign Jayson Werth 1% (218)
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Rockies extend Carlos Gonzalez 1% (213)
Total votes: 23,662
Poll: Jose Bautista’s Extension
Jose Bautista, an unlikely home run champion if there ever was one, signed a five-year, $64MM extension yesterday. The Blue Jays are hoping that the 30-year-old's breakout season (.260/.378/.617 line, 54 homers) is a sign that Bautista has transformed himself as a hitter. The skeptics, however, are not convinced that one year of elite production warrants a $64MM commitment.
Blue Jays GM Alex Anthopoulos has earned the benefit of the doubt, if you ask ESPN.com's Buster Olney. But Olney says he probably would have traded Bautista if any team "dangled an acceptable package" and let another organization risk its money.
Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, who wasn't sure about the deal initially, says he likes the extension the more he considers it. Bautista has unusually good control of the strike zone and can still be one of baseball's most productive hitters if his power drops off, according to Cameron.
Anthopoulos told MLB.com's Gregor Chisholm that he believes in Bautista and is willing to take a calculated risk on him. Would you have done the same thing?
Would you have offered Jose Bautista a $64MM deal?
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No - he hasn't proven himself over the course of multiple seasons 72% (9,087)
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Yes - players like Bautista are exceptionally hard to find 28% (3,560)
Total votes: 12,647
Poll: Kevin Millwood’s Next Team
Yesterday we learned that the Yankees are still considering Kevin Millwood to help round out their rotation. The Bombers might feel compelled to boost their starting five, even after bringing Freddy Garcia and Bartolo Colon aboard recently. They could also afford the veteran’s $4-5MM price tag – something that other clubs are hesitant over.
The Indians have long been linked to Millwood but would prefer to bring someone in on a minor league deal. A $4-5MM deal would be too rich for their blood but as time passes one has to wonder if the right-hander’s camp might be willing to take less. The 36-year-old also hasn’t ruled out a return to Baltimore and MLBTR’s Ben Nicholson-Smith recently wrote that it would make sense for teams like the Royals, Rockies, and Mariners to join the fray.
Which Team Will Sign Kevin Millwood?
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Yankees 42% (2,913)
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Indians 27% (1,879)
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A different team 9% (639)
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Orioles 8% (528)
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Mariners 6% (426)
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Royals 5% (333)
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Rockies 2% (149)
Total votes: 6,867
Poll: Where Will Michael Young End Up?
Michael Young has been a popular man on the trade rumor circuit this offseason, but it wasn’t until this afternoon that we learned the third baseman had officially requested a trade. A number of teams could use a player of Young’s caliber, however only a few can afford the $48MM left on his contract. That’s why Texas will likely eat some of that money to facilitate a deal.
The Rockies have been, by far, the team most connected to Young. Their latest offer includes Jose Lopez but not Aaron Cook, and they’ll reportedly need the Rangers to absord $20MM or more in a deal. Eric Young Jr.‘s name has also come up in talks. Colorado would play Young at second, the position he played when he first broke into the league.
We’ve also heard that the Dodgers have interest in acquiring Young, but their uncertain ownership situation is standing in the way. After missing out on Adrian Beltre, who displaced Young in Texas, it’s possible that both the Athletics and Angels would have interest in Young. Both clubs are seeking help at the hot corner, but it’s unclear if the Rangers would be willing to move him within the division. Mike DiGiovanna of The Los Angeles Times took a look at what it could take to send Young to Anaheim.
The Cardinals are also in need of a third baseman, however GM John Mozeliak has indicated that the team’s payroll is “leaking” following the Lance Berkman signing. They also need to focus on extending Albert Pujols. The Mets could use Young at second, but they don’t have much room in the budget and ownership is currently being sued for ten figures. It’s important to note that the only thing connecting those two clubs (plus the A’s) is my speculation.
Which team will trade for Michael Young?
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Another team not listed 25% (3,463)
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Rockies 20% (2,773)
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Angels 14% (2,021)
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Cardinals 13% (1,824)
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He won't be traded 13% (1,749)
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Dodgers 10% (1,375)
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Athletics 6% (769)
Total votes: 13,974
Poll: Which Team Offered Guerrero $8MM?
The Orioles have interest in Vladimir Guerrero, but their offer sits in the $4.5-5MM range and the nine-time All-Star is looking for more. ESPN.com's Buster Olney reported over the weekend that the Orioles are being told Guerrero has an $8MM offer in hand from an unknown team.
Guerrero doesn't have that many suitors to begin with, since he's a DH at this point in his career. The 35-year-old can hit – he won his ninth Silver Slugger last year after clubbing 29 homers – but teams with DHs probably don't have room for him. That means the Rays aren't interested and leaves the Blue Jays, Angels and Rangers as the most logical potential suitors outside of Baltimore.
So let's answer the $8MM question…
Which team offered Guerrero $8MM?
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There is no $8MM offer 64% (10,630)
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Blue Jays 12% (2,046)
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Angels 12% (2,026)
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Rangers 6% (982)
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Other 5% (824)
Total votes: 16,508
Poll: The 2011 Rays
The Rays won baseball's toughest division last year, putting up 96 wins in the AL East to beat the Yankees (95 wins), Red Sox (89 wins) and Blue Jays (85 wins) for the title. The Yankees retained their prominent free agents this offseason and the Red Sox added Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford, among others.
Meanwhile, the Rays lost Crawford and Rafael Soriano to their biggest rivals and saw Carlos Pena and most of their bullpen depart via free agency, too. But executive VP Andrew Friedman rebuilt the team's bullpen and added some bats. The team is set to introduce Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez at a press conference today, so the Rays will have some veteran sluggers in the mix this year.
Red Sox GM Theo Epstein told ESPNBoston's Gordon Edes that he thinks "the demise of the Rays is greatly exaggerated," but we want to know what you think…
How many games will the Rays win in 2011?
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85-89 games 46% (7,970)
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75-84 games 29% (5,091)
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90-94 games 17% (2,969)
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Fewer than 75 games 5% (912)
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95 games or more 3% (524)
Total votes: 17,466
Poll: Where Will Justin Duchscherer Sign?
With the starting pitching market nearly bare, teams in need of pitching can look back to Justin Duchscherer's 2008 and his limited action in 2010 and dream big. Since Oakland converted their longtime setup man to a starter, he's posted a 2.60 ERA through 169 2/3 innings. His rate stats are excellent (7.1 H/9, 0.7 HR/9, 2.4 BB/9, 6.0 K/9) as well.
Unfortunately for interested teams and for Justin himself, it's taken Duchscherer three years to accumulate those numbers because of injuries. Now a free agent, the 33-year-old has narrowed his options and is choosing between Washington, Baltimore, and Seattle. Several reports have said he prefers the East Coast so he can be closer to his son in New Jersey, but there's no indication that Seattle is out of the running by any means despite that.
None of the three jump out as immediate contenders in 2011, but all three need pitching depth and can offer a chance to rebuild his stock and prove his health in order to land a much larger deal next offseason. Last week, 34.5% of the 18,000+ MLBTR readers polled agreed that Duchscherer was the best remaining free agent pitcher. Let's get your take once again:
Where Will Justin Duchscherer Sign?
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Orioles 57% (3,808)
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Nationals 20% (1,329)
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A different team 16% (1,070)
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Mariners 8% (507)
Total votes: 6,714
Poll: Best Remaining Free Agent Starting Pitcher
Pitchers and catchers are due to report in about three weeks, and by now all of the high-end free agents have come off the board. Heck, even second tier options have signed by now. That leaves just reclamation-type projects and players with considerable flaws, especially when it comes to pitching.
As MLBTR's Free Agent Tracker shows, starters like Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Bonderman, Freddy Garcia, Doug Davis, Rodrigo Lopez, Todd Wellemeyer and Brian Moehler remain unsigned. Andy Pettitte is clearly the best of the unsigned bunch, but it's the Yankees or retirement for him, and right now it looks like the latter is winning out. Neither Pedro Martinez, Braden Looper, or Jarrod Washburn have appeared in a big league game in over a year. John Maine, Justin Duchscherer and Jamie Moyer are coming off injuries, Tommy John surgery in Moyer's case.
There are still a number of teams looking for rotation help, including the Yankees, Orioles, Nationals, Pirates and Indians. Which of those unsigned starters represents the best option?
Who is the best unsigned starting pitcher?
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Justin Duchscherer 34% (6,483)
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Kevin Millwood 20% (3,791)
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Jeremy Bonderman 17% (3,134)
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Freddy Garcia 14% (2,672)
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John Maine 9% (1,684)
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Doug Davis 2% (428)
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Todd Wellemeyer 2% (321)
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Rodrigo Lopez 1% (255)
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Brian Moehler 1% (96)
Total votes: 18,864