Poll: Most Surprising Free Agent Signing
Most of the game's top free agents are off the board, and Spring Training is rapidly approaching. The 2010-11 offseason has provided some genuine shocks in terms of free agent signings. Let's take a look at some of the biggest ones:
- Cliff Lee, Phillies, five years and $120MM: For weeks leading up to the signing, we heard that it was a two-horse race between the Yankees and Rangers. Talks of a mystery team surfacing were taken with a grain of salt until the Phillies emerged to add Lee to one of the best rotations most of us will ever see.
- Jayson Werth, Nationals, seven years and $126MM: If you'd been told a few months ago that Werth would sign the then-third biggest deal for a free agent outfielder in history — with the Nationals of all teams — would you have believed it?
- Carl Crawford, Red Sox, seven years and $142MM: Not to be outdone, Crawford one-upped Werth's deal by securing an additional $16MM. The Angels were thought to be the clear favorite, but Theo Epstein and crew had other ideas.
- Adrian Beltre, Rangers, five years and $80MM: With their infield seemingly set, aside from possibly first base, the Rangers didn't seem a fit for the Boras client. But Beltre turned down offers from two of his newest (and former) rivals in the AL West — Oakland and Los Angeles — to play in Texas.
- Rafael Soriano, Yankees, three years and $35MM: Shortly after Brian Cashman publicly declared he wouldn't surrender the Yankees' first round pick, the Yankees signed Soriano, a Type A free agent, to a three-year deal that, incredibly, includes two opt-out clauses.
- Lance Berkman, Cardinals, one year and $8MM: Certainly not as high profile as the other candidates, but with Albert Pujols entrenched at first base, this seemed an impossibility. Berkman though, will serve as St. Louis' primary right fielder after being primarily a 1B/DH since 2005.
All of these moves came as a surprise to some extent, but let's open the issue up to everyone for discussion:
Which Free Agent Signing Was The Biggest Surprise?
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Cliff Lee to the Phillies 49% (9,111)
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Jayson Werth to the Nationals 27% (5,015)
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Carl Crawford to the Red Sox 9% (1,737)
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Lance Berkman to the Cardinals 7% (1,279)
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Rafael Soriano to the Yankees 5% (1,003)
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Adrian Beltre to the Rangers 2% (324)
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A different free agent signing 2% (306)
Total votes: 18,775
Poll: The Cardinals & Albert Pujols
The Cardinals have until Spring Training to work out an extension with Albert Pujols. Since he's the face of the franchise and arguably the best player in the game, there's a fair amount of pressure on the team not to let the slugger hit free agency. After all, the bidding for a three-time MVP coming off of consecutive home run titles would likely accelerate in no time. Now, the Cards have exclusive negotiating rights with their first baseman.
With just one season remaining on his current contract, Pujols has a fair amount of leverage. If the Cardinals don't meet his demands, he can resist their overtures and wait for other clubs to enter the bidding after the season. And a player of Pujols' caliber could potentially ask for an Alex Rodriguez-like deal on the open market.
Which means everyone wants to know the answer to this question:
Will the Cardinals extend Albert Pujols?
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Yes - he'll get at least $200M, but he won't sign a record deal 42% (7,006)
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Yes - but they'll have to pay him A-Rod money ($275MM) or more 30% (5,041)
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No - he'll hit free agency after the season 21% (3,463)
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Yes - the Cards will lock him up for under $200MM 7% (1,140)
Total votes: 16,650
Poll: Who Will The Rays Sign To DH?
The Rays have been rebuilding their bullpen on the fly this offseason, but they're also in the market for a DH. Just yesterday we heard that the team seems to prefer Vladimir Guerrero to Manny Ramirez, though R.J. Anderson at The Process Report wonders why. Unless Scott Boras is asking for a king's ransom, he explains that Manny is the better option. Tampa has also been connected to Johnny Damon and Andruw Jones recently, two more DH options.
Jim Thome just took a $3MM guarantee from the Twins, which probably sets the market for the remaining DH's. That should fit nicely into the Rays' budget, who have some Matt Garza money left to spend. Some of that has since gone to Kyle Farnsworth though. Our Free Agent Tracker shows that Troy Glaus, Jason Giambi, and Russell Branyan are three more DH options available via free agency.
Who will the Rays sign to DH?
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Vladimir Guerrero 44% (3,648)
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Manny Ramirez 19% (1,531)
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Johnny Damon 13% (1,094)
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Russell Branyan 8% (620)
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Troy Glaus 5% (428)
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Jason Giambi 4% (349)
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Someone not listed 4% (296)
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Andruw Jones 3% (232)
Total votes: 8,198
Poll: Will Andruw Jones Sign With The Yankees?
Yesterday we learned that the Yankees have strong interest in free agent outfielder Andruw Jones. GM Brian Cashman is in search of a backup outfielder who hits right-handed and Jones is one of the better options available at this point in the offseason.
Poll: Where Will Jim Thome Sign?
After uncertainty early in the offseason, Jim Thome's mind is made up — he'll play in 2011. Any team would love to have Thome's 2010 production on board. The likely Hall of Famer hit .283/.412/.627 and blasted 25 home runs for the Twins, moving into sole possession of eighth place on the all-time home run leaderboard.
However, Thome is unlikely to repeat that line, and few teams can afford his reported asking price. We learned last week that Thome is looking to make up for the meager $1.5MM contract he signed last year, possibly seeking as much as $8MM on a one-year deal.
There's also the fact that several teams already have their designated hitter spot filled and don't have much wiggle room with their roster to accommodate someone who's strictly a DH.
We know there's mutual interest with the Twins, but they picked up Jason Kubel's $5.25MM option and seem to be focusing on Carl Pavano for the time being. The Rays freed up some money in the Matt Garza trade, and have an opening at DH, though $8MM would likely still be too much for them. Batimore was recently linked to Vladimir Guerrero, even after signing Derrek Lee, so one would think Thome should appeal there as well. Same goes for the Angels, though they have Bobby Abreu and Juan Rivera.
Toronto committed $2.5MM to Edwin Encarnacion, but Thome could platoon with him at DH if the Jays plan on using Adam Lind at first base. If Detroit decides to use Victor Martinez as their primary catcher in 2011, Thome could join his fourth AL Central team as their DH as well.
There's no clear fit for Thome in terms of roster flexibility, team need, and available payroll, but eventually, someone will bring him on board and watch him close in on the elite 600 home run mark. Thome sits just 11 homers shy of that honor, and while his health is no guarantee, I'm not betting against him reaching that plateau when he can still hit homers like this one. Let's open it up to everyone:
Where Will Jim Thome Sign?
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Twins 42% (4,410)
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Rays 13% (1,398)
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Another team 11% (1,092)
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Angels 10% (1,069)
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Orioles 8% (841)
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Tigers 8% (814)
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Blue Jays 7% (764)
Total votes: 10,388
Poll: Greinke Or Garza?
As the reactions to yesterday's Matt Garza trade poured in, ESPN's Keith Law said he believes the Rays received more in return for their young right-hander than the Royals did when they traded Zack Greinke to the Brewers. He explained that Tampa "focused less on position and more on overall value" after saying the exact opposite about the deal Kansas City made (Insider req'd for the last link).
Obviously, the trades are not equal in a number of ways. The Cubs are receiving two young players in addition to Garza, one being Fernando Perez. Greinke, however, is a former Cy Young Award winner and according to WAR, his last three seasons were all better than Garza's best season (2009) by a considerable margin. He does lack Garza's postseason experience though. The pitchers were born less than a month apart, but the Cubs will get three years of Garza while the Brewers get just two of Greinke (at a higher salary).
So, knowing what we know about the players, do you prefer the package of Lorenzo Cain, Alcides Escobar, Jeremy Jeffress, and Jake Odorizzi or the package of Chris Archer, Brandon Guyer,Robinson Chirinos, Hak-Ju Lee, and Sam Fuld?
Which team got a better return for their young right-hander?
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Rays 59% (9,185)
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Royals 30% (4,620)
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The packages are about equal 12% (1,817)
Total votes: 15,622
Poll: Recent Rockies Extensions
The Rockies have locked up Troy Tulowitzki through 2020 and they've agreed to a deal that should keep Carlos Gonzalez in Denver through 2017. Both are powerful young hitters capable of playing premium defensive positions at a high level, so any team would want them.
Tulowitzki, 26, finished fifth in MVP voting in 2009 and 2010. He plays Gold Glove defense and has an electrifying bat capable of carrying a team (remember those 15 September home runs?). Gonzalez, also a Gold Glove winner, is just 25. He won a batting title last year and hit 34 home runs. Few teams have two elite young players like Tulo and CarGo, so it's not surprising that GM Dan O'Dowd wanted to keep them around.
But the Rockies didn't have to offer Tulowitzki and Gonzalez massive extensions to keep the players in Colorado. They were both under team control through 2014 before they agreed to extensions. You could argue that the Rockies took on unnecessary risk with their recent deals. It begs the question…
Should the Rockies have extended Tulo and CarGo?
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Yes - championship clubs are built around elite players 74% (7,087)
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No - the team took on unnecessary risks 26% (2,522)
Total votes: 9,609
Poll: Which Team Will Sign Orlando Cabrera?
Most of the big time free agents are off the board, leaving just spare parts and stopgap players on the shelves. One such player is Orlando Cabrera, who’s certainly familiar with this role. None of his three career free agent contracts were agreed to before the month of January, and he even had to wait until early March before joining the Athletics in 2009. Once again, he’s waiting for a team looking for a short-term solution to call his name.
The number of teams looking for an upgrade at short is surprisingly small, but the Reds (who employed Cabrera in 2010) are one of them; they recently spoke to Edgar Renteria‘s agent. Perhaps the Pirates get involved as well. A number of clubs are looking for infield help off the bench, including the Giants and Yankees, but Cabrera doesn’t exactly qualify as a bench player. He’s played shortstop exclusively for the last ten seasons, with his only other playing time coming at second base (just 241 career innings). That doesn’t mean he can’t play second or third, just that he hasn’t done in a while.
At age 36, Cabrera’s game is slipping noticeably. He was never a great on-base threat, but his OBP fell to just .303 this past season, his lowest since his rookie season. His overall batting line (.263/.303/.354) represents the lowest OPS (.657) he’s ever put up in a full season. Cabrera’s defense has declined but still qualifies as above average at +4.5 UZR over the last three seasons. The baseline for shortstop production is pretty low these days, so Cabrera can still be a viable everyday player.
Which team will sign Orlando Cabrera?
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Another team not listed 20% (1,178)
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Reds 19% (1,140)
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Pirates 19% (1,106)
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Giants 18% (1,090)
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Yankees 14% (834)
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He'll go unsigned 10% (591)
Total votes: 5,939
Poll: The Designated Hitter Market
The market for designated hitters has been slow to develop this winter, meaning that a few intriguing veteran bats are still available. When we looked at MLBTR's top 15 remaining free agents this week, three of the top six names were designated hitters, with another likely DH, Johnny Damon, also cracking the list.
Manny Ramirez, Jim Thome, Vladimir Guerrero, and Damon all appear capable of contributing solid offensive production in 2011. Of the four, only Damon had a 2010 OPS below .841, and he still reached base at a .355 clip, right in line with his career rate. Considering their defensive limitations and the fact that they're on the wrong side of 35, it seems unlikely that any of these four will land multiyear deals. While the values may vary, one-year contracts in designated hitter roles appear probable for all four players.
Taking into account that likely variance in salary, here's tonight's poll question: if you were an American League GM in search of a DH, which player would you prefer to add? Who will provide the most bang for your buck in 2011? Ramirez, Thome, Guerrero, and Damon are the most intriguing names out there, but there are also a few under-the-radar DH candidates available, as MLBTR's free agent tracker shows, so be sure to take that into consideration as well.
Which DH would you sign for 2011?
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Vladimir Guerrero 49% (9,328)
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Jim Thome 29% (5,563)
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Manny Ramirez 15% (2,878)
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Johnny Damon 5% (1,046)
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Someone else 2% (365)
Total votes: 19,180
Poll: Where Will Scott Podsednik Sign?
Recently we learned that the Reds have spoken to the agent for Scott Podsednik as they look to land a left-handed hitting outfielder. The veteran would likely be affordable for the Reds though there is a decent-sized market for his services. The Angels' interest in the 34-year-old is well-known and the Dodgers seemed open to retaining him earlier this winter.
Not only is Podsednik affordable, he also won't require a team to forfeit a draft pick as the Dodgers opted not to offer him arbitration. After earning a modest $1.75MM salary last season, Scotty Pods hit a respectable .297/.342/.382 in 595 plate appearances. It's slim pickins' on the free agent market now and the veteran now finds himself as one of the more attractive players available. Where do you see Podsednik landing in the New Year?
Where Will Scott Podsednik Sign?
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Reds 36% (2,276)
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Angels 28% (1,748)
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Dodgers 18% (1,129)
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Other 18% (1,116)
Total votes: 6,269