Glavine In ’08 – Undecided
I just read seven articles about Tom Glavine, all brought about by yesterday’s New York Post exclusive from Kevin Kernan. As Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog notes, it doesn’t seem necessary to worry about Glavine’s future until after the playoffs. Nonetheless, here’s where we stand this morning.
- Mark Hale of the New York Post says the Mets are again interested in signing Glavine if he decides to pitch. Unlike Kernan’s story yesterday, Hale does not say that Glavine would decline his likely $13MM player option to sign for $12MM. If he pitches – if – it will again come down to the Mets or Braves. The Mets are the favorite. Omar Minaya will wait for Glavine to come to him.
- Joel Sherman, also for the New York Post, writes that Glavine was exactly what the Braves needed this year. He thinks the Braves would’ve been in first right now if they’d signed Glavine for the discounted $10MM or whatever. I agree – Glavine is in general worth about six wins over replacement in a single season, and the Braves have had plenty of replacement level-pitching this year.
- Roger Rubin of the New York Daily News tosses in the idea of a Roger Clemens "family plan" for Glavine in ’08, where he’s only required to be with the team on days he pitches.
- David Lennon of Newsday spoke to a Mets official who feels it’s unlikely any extension gets done before the offseason.
- Don Burke of the Newark Star-Ledger says nothing’s really changed in the Glavine situation. He also gently chides the Post yesterday for their "breathless" headline.
- Glavine spoke to Steve Popper of the Bergen Record in double negatives just to increase confusion.
- Ben Shpigel of the New York Times thinks Omar Minaya would be inclined to decline Glavine’s $13MM option and negotiate something at a lower price. But everything I’ve read has called it a player option, so I’m not sure if Minaya can do that. Shpigel thinks that if Glavine pitches, it will "almost certainly be with the Mets." He also notes Shawn Green musing on his future. Green’s $10MM option for ’08 will be bought out for $2MM, and the outfielder doesn’t want a utility role if he plays next year.
Glavine Likely To Pitch For Mets In ’08
The New York Posts’s Kevin Kernan has an exclusive report today on Tom Glavine. He’s got many quotes from Glavine indicating that the 41 year-old southpaw will play another season and stay with the Mets. Glavine’s family is encouraging him to play again. He can also aim to improve his standing in career wins from 21st to 16th.
According to Kernan, Glavine will likely decline his player option and instead ink a new one-year pact for around $12MM. That is curious to me because the player option is likely to reach $13MM if Glavine reaches 200 innings this year.
Kernan adds that the Braves could still try to lure Glavine back but it seems unlikely given the price. However with the new ownership and the clear need for one good starter, the possibility can’t be eliminated. If such a scenario does occur, the Mets could always make a similar offer to Curt Schilling.
Livan Hernandez Hopes To Pitch With El Duque
Livan Hernandez, half-brother of Orlando, were all set to pitch together as Expos in 2003 until El Duque succumbed to a shoulder injury. Livan, a free-agent-to-be, mentioned recently that he still aims to pitch with his half-brother.
El Duque is signed through 2008 as a Met; could they make room for Livan in next year’s rotation? Duque, Oliver Perez, and John Maine are locked in. Tom Glavine’s status is in question; Livan could conceivably fill Glavine’s rotation spot. If Glavine reaches 200 innings this year, he’ll have a $13MM player option for ’08. It might be hard to turn that down.
The market is weak enough where a past-his-prime innings eater like Livan Hernandez might be a hot commodity. If he’s looking for a 3/36 type deal, the Mets would probably pass.
Mets Acquire Conine
UPDATE: According to Ken Rosenthal, the Mets are on the verge of getting Conine for two low-level minor leaguers.
According to Ben Shpigel of the New York Times, the Mets might consider trading for Reds outfielder Jeff Conine. The need was created when Damion Easley endured a Grade 3 ankle sprain.
Conine, 41, has about $480K left on his contract this year. He’s known to have cleared waivers, and I’m sure he can be had for a song.
Mets Still Searching For Future Catcher
Both the New York Daily News and Journal News had stories today discussing the Mets’ future catching situation. There are a few viable free agent options, so let’s discuss those first.
Paul Lo Duca – No one seems to think the Mets will bring him back for ’08. Brian Heyman of the above-linked Daily News cites his "non-impact season offensively and some embarrassing off-the-field related headlines." Odd how Lo Duca’s off-the-field issues seem to carry more weight than Ramon Castro‘s. Lo Duca still seems capable of hitting southpaws.
Ramon Castro – I wrote extensively on Castro here. Despite his desire to be the Mets #1 catcher, he has an injury history and the Mets opted for Lo Duca over him in ’06. He might want starting catcher money and the Mets don’t seem convinced.
Ivan Rodriguez – Pudge is definitely on the radar, but GMs are divided on whether the Tigers will exercise his option. If he’s out there, expect the Mets to make a run at him.
Jorge Posada – A lot of teams, the Mets, included, are going to make offers to Posada if he reaches free agency. Nobody thinks he’ll leave the Yankees though.
Michael Barrett – Barrett might’ve made sense had his bat not died this year. He seems to have a poor reputation around baseball right now, and 2008 will be his chance to redeem himself. Perhaps on a one-year deal.
Yorvit Torrealba – Kind of a darkhorse in that he’s under 30 and his bat is less than lifeless for a backstop. Aside from this year he’s been pretty good at throwing out baserunners. His numbers might dip down the stretch as the Rockies don’t have a capable backup right now. That would only make him more of a bargain.
Jose Molina, Brad Ausmus, Jason Kendall – If you want to completely sacrifice a spot in the order, these guys are options.
If the free agents aren’t suitable, there are some trade options.
Ronny Paulino – It’s known that the Mets have some interest, but the Bucs don’t really have anyone to turn to behind the plate. And I don’t think Paulino would come cheap.
Jeff Clement – Even tougher to pry away would be the Mariners’ catcher of the future. Kenji Johjima is only signed through 2008 so the Ms can conveniently work Clement in to be the starter in ’09.
Bengie Molina – The Mets apparently made identical offers – I believe it was 3/18 – to Molina and Ramon Hernandez after the ’05 season. But Molina was oddly left standing and signed a one-year deal with Toronto despite coming off a career year. He performed well and spun it into an ill-advised 3/16 deal with the Giants. Should the Giants decide to use ’08 as a rebuilding year, Molina will definitely be available this winter.
Ramon Hernandez – Hernandez signed a four-year pact with Baltimore, and it looked solid after he posted an .822 OPS in 2006. However, his power has fallen off drastically this year and he’s had injury problems. He might be available, especially if the O’s sign Matt Wieters and expect him to move quickly. But Hernandez’s contract has a limited no-trade provision that specifically names the Mets and Yankees as teams he has veto power over. That probably indicates he’s not dying to play in New York.
As for the short-term need for a catcher, don’t look for the Mets to re-acquire Mike Piazza. He’s seemingly incapable of catching, anyway.
Where’s David Wells Headed?
Another August, another David Wells trade. Which teams would consider the 44 year-old southpaw?
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe believes there’s a small chance the Diamondbacks or Dodgers could be interested. Wells’ agent, Gregg Clifton, specifically mentioned the Mets, D’Backs, and Dodgers as teams the pitcher would strongly consider.
However, Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic indicated Friday that the D’Backs "do not appear to have interest" in Wells. Similar story for another West team, the Mariners. Larry Stone of the Seattle Times says the Ms "don’t appear to be interested." Stone says Wells has a strong preference to stay in the NL. I don’t blame him. I wonder if Wells is on Atlanta’s radar.
2008 MLB Free Agents: Ramon Castro
One name not originally on my list of free agent catchers this winter was the Mets’ Ramon Castro. I didn’t view him as a potential starter. But with nine homers in 124 ABs for the Mets this year, Castro could move to the front of a weak class of catchers. Assuming Jorge Posada and Ivan Rodriguez never hit the open market, that leaves Castro, Michael Barrett, Paul Lo Duca, and Jason Kendall. Let’s take a closer look at Castro.
Castro was picked 17th overall by the Astros in the 1994 draft. A couple of other backstops went a few picks before him – Jason Varitek and Paul Konerko. Castro was a 22 year-old with a .759 OPS at Double A back in 1998 when the Astros decided to trade him to Florida for reliever Jay Powell. Powell was very solid for Houston, a team that won the NL Central easily that year.
Castro spent most of ’99 in Triple A, posting a .757 OPS with decent power. Florida’s "Catcher of the Future" was recalled in August and got his feet wet with 67 ABs that year.
He seemed on the inside track to split catching duties with Mike Redmond in March of 2000. However, the Marlins chose to keep Sandy Martinez and send Castro back to Triple A to start the season. This time, Castro mashed Triple A pitching – .335/.380/.628 – and made the All-Star team. The Marlins called him up in late July. He became the team’s #1 catcher, but didn’t hit.
Not comfortable with Castro as their starter anymore, the Marlins went out and signed Charles Johnson for the 2001 season. Though Castro was out of options, the Marlins sent him to Triple A in April and he surprisingly cleared waivers. Still only 25, Castro again posted an OPS over 1.000 at Triple A. Teams started calling Dave Dombrowski, interested in making a deal. Castro earned only a September call-up in ’01. The Blue Jays expressed interest that winter, but Castro stayed put.
Castro seemed certain to be traded heading into 2002, but an injury to Johnson opened the door for him to begin the season with the Marlins. An elbow issue surfaced in May, but Dr. James Andrews deemed it a sprain and Castro was back by mid-June. Castro received only 101 ABs that year, but did begin to show some power with a .455 SLG.
Heading into 2003, the Marlins still didn’t have faith in Castro so they signed Ivan Rodriguez to a one-year deal. Good idea. Castro stuck in the Majors most of the year but got only 53 ABs as the third catcher.
Then in late August of ’03, Castro was arrested on a rape charge. A few days later he posted bond and rejoined the Marlins, declaring his innocence. His hearing was postponed, but the Fish didn’t put him on the playoff roster. Prior to the hearing, Castro signed a one-year, $400K deal for 2004 with the Marlins. He entered a not-guilty plea as the trial was pushed back to October of ’04. Most of the playing time went to Mike Redmond that year, and Castro hit the DL in June with an inflamed toe. Mike Lowell suggested that the impending trial contributed to Castro’s .135/.231/.260 line in 2004.
Assigned to Triple A in October, Castro opted for free agency instead. As for the trial, the charge was reduced to misdemeanor indecent assault and Castro plead no-contest. The plea did not acknowledge wrongdoing. Castro was sentenced to a year of probation.
In December of 2004, new Mets GM Omar Minaya signed Castro to a minor-league deal. He spent some time on the DL for a sprained quad, but still racked up a career-high 209 ABs as Mike Piazza‘s backup. He posted a decent .756 OPS.
The Mets signed Castro to an $800K deal for ’06, but a strained rib cage caused him to miss time. While rehabbing that, he tore his medial meniscus and needed surgery. He finally made it back at the end of September, but it was a lost year.
Castro signed for $850K last winter to again serve as Paul Lo Duca‘s backup. Lo Duca hasn’t been healthy or hitting, and Castro’s having his best season with an .889 OPS.
In 119 games as a Met, Castro has a .255/.324/.455 line with 21 HR in 459 ABs. One has to wonder if he could do that in a single season. If so, he’d be one of the better catchers available. In the past, Castro has shown the ability to throw out 30%+ of would-be basestealers. However, he’s nailed just two of 25 this year. Mets fans – what’s up with that?
Teams like the Devil Rays, Mets, Cubs, Astros, and Padres may all be looking for catchers this winter. Castro should get consideration as a regular, and might be a decent buy at two years, $8MM or so.
Omar Minaya Trade Profile (Mets)
Omar Minaya’s made so many trades in recent years that I decided to break up his trade profile into two posts. I covered his 25 deals as the Expos’ GM here. Minaya jumped to the large-market Mets in 2004, and by my count has made another 25 trades. Download new_york_mets_minaya.xls; it should be Minaya’s entire trade record.
Minaya kicked off the new year in 2005 by sending backup catcher Vance Wilson to the Tigers for infielder Anderson Hernandez. The Mets already had Mike Piazza and Ramon Castro on hand to catch that year. Wilson went on to become a 150 AB-a-year backup for the Tigers with mixed results, while Hernandez has gotten a few cups of coffee as a glove man. I’ll call it a wash.
Not thrilled about switching to right field to accomodate Carlos Beltran, Mike Cameron requested a trade in January of 2005. Though Cameron was coming off wrist surgery, the Diamondbacks had interest. The A’s liked him too, and a deal was on the table that would’ve brought Eric Byrnes and saved the Mets $2.5MM to use on Carlos Delgado. The Mariners, Pirates, Astros, Tigers, and Rockies were in on Cameron as well, but Minaya couldn’t get anything done. Cameron rescinded his trade demand in March and reluctantly moved to right field. The Padres, Orioles, and Yankees all expressed interest in Cameron that summer, with even Gary Sheffield on the table. But Cameron’s Mets career ended in August after a terrible collision with Beltran. We’ll pick up this story later in the post.
Minaya had to go with a glove man at first base in ’05, getting Doug Mientkiewicz from Boston for a first base prospect who never panned out plus some cash. Minky was the backup plan after Minaya failed to sign Carlos Delgado. A torn hamstring injury and a back bruise limited Mientkiewicz’s playing time, but he turned out to be a pretty lousy Plan B. Mets’ first basemen hit just .227/.303/.391 on the season. Delgado, meanwhile, was a seven-win player for the Marlins. The Mets finished the season six games out for the Wild Card and seven games out for the division title, making the failure to sign Delgado loom large.
In March of 2005, Minaya sent catcher Jason Phillips to the Dodgers for southpaw Kaz Ishii. The Mets couldn’t fix Ishii, and he was demoted in August after making 16 starts. He’s since returned to Japan. Phillips was no big loss, but Ishii didn’t help at all.
Minaya’s first year as Mets GM was not a success in terms of trades. Cameron again asked for a trade in November of ’05, and Minaya sent him to San Diego for Xavier Nady. Nady would later be used in one of Minaya’s best deals. Swapping him for Cameron straight up was fairly even, though it would’ve been nice to add Akinori Otsuka as had been rumored.
A week later Minaya got his man, acquiring Delgado and $7MM from the Marlins for Mike Jacobs, Yusmeiro Petit, and Grant Psomas. The Mets were essentially on the hook for $41MM over the 2006-08 period for Delgado. Delgado, while currently a burden, had a nice ’06 and definitely helped the Mets get to the playoffs. Minaya pretty much sold high on Petit and Jacobs. Even though two-thirds of Delgado’s tenure may be less than acceptable, I have to call the trade a success.
Minaya hit up the Marlins again in December, getting Paul Lo Duca instead of signing Ramon Hernandez or Bengie Molina. Pitcher Gaby Hernandez was the main piece for Florida. I think Hernandez will reach the Majors in 2008 and could settle in as the Marlins’ #4 starter. But Lo Duca was solid in ’06 and it’s another win-now move. I consider it a good trade for both clubs.
Minaya’s roll continued when he got Duaner Sanchez and Steve Schmoll from the Dodgers for Jae Seo and Tim Hamulack in January of ’06. It was the perfect sell high on Seo, and I have to admit I thought he was going to be pretty good in ’06. Sanchez was a very good late-inning reliever until his July injury.
Another gem: Minaya snagged Jorge Julio and John Maine from the Orioles for Kris Benson later in January. As you know, Maine blossomed into a legitimate cheap #2 starter (actually #1 might be fair; he’s been the seventh best starter in the NL this year according to VORP). Huge win for Minaya.
Better still, Julio was spun into Orlando Hernandez. El Duque will miss a start here and there, but he’s been excellent for the Mets.
By June, Minaya had almost no choice but to unload Kaz Matsui. While he’s had some success for the Rockies, I wouldn’t argue that he could be succeeding as the Mets’ second baseman right now. I just don’t think New York worked for him.
In July of 2006, Minaya made a minor move to get Ruben Gotay from the Royals for Jeff Keppinger. Both players seem to be over their heads this year, but who knows, either guy could have a decent career. I’ll call it even for now.
Another huge steal came on deadline day last year, as Minaya traded Nady for Roberto Hernandez and Oliver Perez. The Pirates had given up on Perez, but he’s already back to form with the Mets. Three-fifths of the current rotation came via shrewd trading by Minaya.
Minaya was active in August as well, getting Shawn Green and Guillermo Mota. The trades were helpful, and nothing of value was surrendered.
The 2006 season ended a success. Since then, though, Minaya’s made only three major trades and all appear questionable.
In November, he sent Heath Bell and Royce Ring to the Padres for Ben Johnson and Jon Adkins. Bell’s been awesome this year, with a 2.49 ERA in 61 innings for the Padres. He’s now Trevor Hoffman‘s setup man. You can argue that the Padres always do this with relievers and it’s their home park, but Bell has a 1.93 ERA on the road this year so the potential’s been there all along. I’m sure the Mets would love to have him back.
A few days later Minaya sent hard-throwing relievers Henry Owens and Matt Lindstrom to the Marlins for lefties Jason Vargas and Adam Bostick. Owens has been hurt much of this year, but Lindstrom has been decent. Vargas and Bostick have not impressed. This one’s too early to call but the Fish have the early advantage.
In December Minaya acquired a live bullpen arm in Ambiorix Burgos from the Royals for starter Brian Bannister. Burgos throws hard; he definitely is the upside play. But Bannister, while less of a scout’s dream, has thrown 100 solid innings for the Royals this year. Hindsight is 20/20, but if Bannister received the 13 starts that went to Mike Pelfrey, Jason Vargas, Chan Ho Park, and Dave Williams this year, the Mets would probably have a couple more wins.
The only deal I can find made by Minaya this calendar year was the minor acquisition of Jake Gatreau (that deal is oddly absent from MLB.com’s transaction log, so leave a comment if I’ve missed any other 2007 trades by the Mets). Minaya added many players via trade in 2006, but seems content to go to battle with the group he’s got this year. They’re the best team in the National League, so who am I to question his inactivity?
Omar Minaya had a fine run making trades from November ’05 to August of ’06. He’s in a bit of a slump, though, and the results of his Mets tenure have been a mixed bag overall.
Mets Offer Humber For Cordero
UPDATE: SI.com’s Jon Heyman says the Mets have offered Philip Humber to the Nationals for Cordero, but are holding fast with their bigger name prospects. He also confirms that the Diamondbacks are in on Cordero and could offer Carlos Quentin.
According to Barry Svrluga of the Washington Post, the fates of Chad Cordero and Jon Rauch might be tied to Eric Gagne. Gagne has the lower asking price and limited no-trade protection, and Jim Bowden may wait until that situation is resolved.
Some possible names on the Nats’ radar include Wily Mo Pena, Carlos Quentin, and Philip Humber. Humber is one prospect the Mets are willing to trade, according to Jayson Stark. Those names don’t exactly gel with the previous demands were hearing from Jim Bowden. Will Bowden back down? Will a desperate team offer a top flight prospect like an Adam Jones? Or will Cordero and Rauch just stay put like last year?
Yankees Discouraged On Gagne, Cubs Still In?
UPDATE: Peter Abraham confirms that the Yankees seem unlikely for Gagne. He says the Red Sox are offering David Murphy and Kason Gabbard, while the Cubs are still quietly involved. Not sure whether Gagne would have to consent to a trade to the Cubs, but he could be used as their closer without a major uprising.
Ken Rosenthal is reporting that the Yankees aren’t liking their chances to get Eric Gagne. That might mean he’s going to the Red Sox, Mets, or Brewers, or that he’s staying put.
The Mets don’t seem likely given some previous reports and the Rangers’ demand for Carlos Gomez.
The Red Sox would probably give up David Murphy and the Brewers would surrender Tony Gwynn Jr. If the Rangers would settle for Gwynn, a deal could happen quickly because Gagne cannot veto a trade there. However, he can block a move to Boston and that would present another obstacle.
Speaking of the Red Sox, Rosenthal sees their chances for Jermaine Dye faded. After all, that deal would have a no-trade obstacle too.