Heyman’s Latest
SI.com’s Jon Heyman has a new column up, with some minor info.
- Heyman’s sources describe a Jose Reyes for Johan Santana rumor as "pure fantasy." Well…who said it was ever anything more? Buster Olney was clearly just playing Let’s Make A Deal when he devised it. Things get twisted around easily.
- Most of us already figured this, but Heyman says the White Sox will go after either Aaron Rowand or Torii Hunter this winter.
- Heyman puts the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Giants, Cubs, Mets, and Phillies into the A-Rod derby if the Yanks don’t keep him.
- No offense to Jon but this column really lacked any kind of new info.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Bonds, Nathan, Barrett
Ken Rosenthal has a new rumor column up. Feels like it’s been a while.
- Rosenthal thinks it’s a sign of desperation that the Angels would entertain signing Barry Bonds, who doesn’t fit in with their club. His OBP would fit in anywhere, but he would tie up the DH spot at the expense of Juan Rivera and Vladimir Guerrero.
- The Cubs are expected to bring Daryle Ward back at $1.2MM (makes sense) and Steve Trachsel at $4.75MM (questionable). Cubs fans can only hope Trachsel would be considered a tradeable asset, as Rosenthal opines. Rosenthal also quashes the idea of trading Aramis Ramirez, both because of his full no-trade clause and the team’s impending sale.
- David Eckstein is expected to leave the Cardinals, no big surprise. Rosenthal reiterates recent rumors connecting him to the White Sox, Tigers, and Mets.
- Rosenthal’s idea for Bill Smith and the Twins: keep Johan Santana this winter, and instead trade the $6MM super-closer Joe Nathan. Teams would line up for him, and Pat Neshek wouldn’t be a bad replacement.
- Do you think Michael Barrett could be a free agent bargain? Rosenthal talked to one exec who feels this way, and it is a good point if he can bounce back to .280/.350/.480 for five million bucks.
Braves Notes: Hampton, Lowry, Andruw
Mike Hampton makes $15MM next year, and the Braves aren’t getting any relief from the Rockies or Marlins. However, it turns out the Braves actually spread around those payments so that they’d pay out about $8MM to Hampton in each year of the deal.
This is confirmed by Bill Shanks of Scout.com, for starters. Shanks notes that the Braves owe $8.25MM to Hampton next year because of amortization. I’ve heard that David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution said something similar in the comments of one of his blog posts, but it’s been buried somewhere. Bottom line, the Braves have $7MM more than we thought they did. A $95MM payroll would give Atlanta some wiggle room to add a starter.
It’s not a stretch to add Tom Glavine, with this new information. However, O’Brien thinks the Braves need more. While Dan Haren or Joe Blanton may be out of reach, Noah Lowry seems a more realistic target. The point is to find a decent young controllable arm.
O’Brien’s also got some early interested parties in Andruw Jones: the Dodgers, Rangers, Giants, White Sox, Nationals, Phillies, and Mets. Seems like the idea of moving Beltran to right field has been discussed within the Mets organization. The Dodgers, I imagine, would shift Juan Pierre to left field.
Should Mets Pursue Rowand, Eckstein?
When I first saw the subheading of Joel Sherman’s most recent column – "Mets Would Get Much-Needed Jolt From Rowand And Eckstein" – I had the knee-jerk stathead reaction. That is: Eckstein’s overrated, Rowand’s coming off a career year, and the grinder element either doesn’t exist or doesn’t add wins.
But Sherman doesn’t seem blind to the numbers and his plan to move Carlos Beltran to right field and use Eckstein at second base seems reasonable. Who am I to say that adding two guys who play with such enthusiasm wouldn’t have an intangible effect? Sometimes the pendulum swings too far the other way with stats people (I am guilty of this). Rowand and Eckstein are above average players, even if their attitudes earn them too much media extra credit. There are immeasurable but valuable traits in baseball.
Rowand might end up costing $60MM over five years at the high end. Eckstein, $10MM over two years. Should the Mets make this investment? Sherman’s plan also calls for using Lastings Milledge/Carlos Gomez/Fernando Martinez to acquire a workhorse arm like Jon Garland, Nate Robertson, Joe Blanton, Bronson Arroyo, or Dontrelle Willis. Thoughts on that?
Meanwhile, John Delcos of The Journal News wants Glavine, Lo Duca, Castillo, Easley, and Alou back plus trades for Adam Dunn and Chad Cordero.
Glavine Would Take Less Money For Braves
The AJC’s David O’Brien has a source close to Tom Glavine saying the free agent lefty would take less money to pitch for the Braves. Glavine made $10.5MM this year and already has the Mets’ $3MM buyout for ’08 in his pocket (figuratively).
O’Brien says the Braves are likely to bump up their $84MM payroll, but they’d have to go past $100MM to fit in a discounted Glavine. Or, they can clear payroll by trading Edgar Renteria for someone cheaper.
As for the talk of the Braves chasing a young Joe Blanton type, sure, I can see it. It’s just that the cupboard is a little bare.
Glavine Declines $13MM Option
As had been talked about, 41 year-old lefty Tom Glavine declined his $13MM player option for 2008. He snags a $3MM buyout in the process. This decision doesn’t seem to be about money; he just wants more time to decide between the Mets, Braves, and retirement. Actually, we might be able to count the previous Nationals speculation as a little more than that – Glavine’s agent revealed today that they won’t be ruled out.
MLB.com’s Marty Noble suggests that the Mets would be pleased to have Glavine return, but will move on and acquire another starter if he doesn’t. I’ve said this before but I wonder if the Mets will eventually be connected to Curt Schilling.
Santana Would Consider Waiving No-Trade Rights
Johan Santana gets a full no-trade clause for 2008 if he finishes top three in the Cy Young voting this year. In 2007 Santana was fifth in VORP and doesn’t even crack the top ten in ESPN’s Cy Predictor. Though I have to question the validity of any tool that puts Joe Borowski ninth.
Anyway, mostly because of the Twins missing the playoffs, it’s safe to say that Santana will not finish in the top three. Instead, he gets to choose 12 teams he cannot be traded to. As Nat Boyle recently noted, Santana could theoretically strategically select the 12 teams most likely to trade for him if he really wanted to stay in Minnesota for one more season.
That doesn’t seem likely, however. Based on this article from La Velle E. Neal III, Santana would likely give up his no-trade protection if A) the acquiring team was a contender and B) he was compensated $1-2MM to give up his rights.
All we’ve really seen so far is a questionable Matt Kemp/Clayton Kershaw rumor that doesn’t make it past my reality checker. We’ve also got Charley Walters saying there’s "little doubt" the Mets will pursue Santana, for what that’s worth. Buster Olney tosses out a Jose Reyes/Carlos Gomez/Mike Pelfrey for Santana and Jason Bartlett proposal. It doesn’t sound like any true trade discussions have leaked to the press yet. I wouldn’t expect things to get going until the Winter Meetings December 3-6 in Nashville.
The Tom Glavine Situation
No less than four articles surfaced today about Tom Glavine. There was Bob Klapisch on the harsh end, and George Vecsey on the calm side. A guy who’s been living on the edges for years, outpitching his peripherals, had a lousy final month to his season. And of course his final thrashing at the hands of the Marlins could not have come at a worse time.
But does this really change anything? Glavine still has to decide between retirement and playing. Then he might have to decide between the Mets and Braves. Omar Minaya is still waiting on Glavine’s decision and will leave the door open to him for $10-12MM. The Braves have the need but still probably don’t have the money. Chris Solberg weighs in on the Atlanta idea over at The Baseball Opinion. Matthew Cerrone of MetsBlog thinks Glavine’s time in New York is up.
Perhaps these older hurlers will start to gravitate towards the Roger Clemens abbreviated season plan. Guys like Glavine and Curt Schilling could start their seasons a month or two late and experience a frenzy for their services.
Sunday Morning Santana
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe discusses the names being thrown around for Johan Santana. As well as the Kemp/Kershaw for Santana, Cafardo quotes an AL Executive:
One AL executive theorized, "There are a few teams who could match up with the Twins. Would the Yankees deal Melky Cabrera and an Ian Kennedy for Santana? How about Boston? Would they send a Clay Buchholz and a Jacoby Ellsbury for him? The Mets? There are few teams who could handle the paycheck you’d have to give Santana and also be able to part with key prospects."
If that logic is correct, it narrows the list of suitors considerably.
MLBTR readers made the astute point in the Kemp/Kershaw comments that if a team is going to give up two Major League-ready prospects, the deal would be contingent on a re-signing of Santana. A one year rental is most likely not going to appeal to any GM handing over otherwise untouchable commodities such as a Buchholz/Ellsbury or a Kennedy/Cabrera or a Kemp/Kershaw.
Which teams, therefore, can afford the likes of baseball’s best starting pitcher?
Here’s an intriguing twist. As most already know, it’s safe to assume Santana will not finish in the top 3 in Cy Young voting this year and therefore will not be gaining his no-trade clause for 2008. However, he still gets to choose up to 12 teams to which he can’t be traded. If for some reason he didn’t want to leave the Twins next season, could he strategically choose every team capable of dealing for him?
Despite not having a no-trade clause, it’s safe to note Santana will have considerable say in any deal.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
Alou Hopes To Return To Mets In ’08
The Mets have an interesting decision on their hands with Moises Alou, though it’s not exactly the team’s primary concern right now. That won’t stop us from talking about it!
Alou has a franchise-record 30 game hitting streak going as a 41 year-old. Since the start of 2006, he’s hit a monstrous .322/.373/.551 in 655 ABs. The problem is that he’s shown he’s only good for 90-100 games per year due to injuries.
In this day and age one can place a dollar value on such production. The numbers say Alou is roughly a 3.5 win player in the time he’s active. Last I heard a win was worth around $2.1MM – maybe a little extra to the Mets as a perennial contender. So let’s say Alou is worth $7.5MM even given a chunk of missed time. That makes the 2008 decision fairly easy – his option is for exactly that amount. The $1MM buyout pushes the decision even closer to exercising it.
Earlier in September, Alou said he’d retire if the Mets didn’t pick up the option. Alou’s tune hasn’t completely changed – he said "I don’t think so" when asked today if he’d continue playing if the Mets declined his option. However, he seems undecided and may try another club closer to his home in the Dominican Republic.
I don’t see the Marlins bringing him back, but the Braves could make sense. DHing for the Rangers could work as well. Still, the most likely outcome is the Mets exercising the option.