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Joba The Starter?

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It’s been a slow Saturday in the rumor mill so as it grinds down, I thought I’d see where everyone would put Joba Chamberlain next season if you were the Yankees.

Experts and statisticians feel that Joba must be in the rotation because 180 innings of Joba next year is more valuable than around 60.  Frank Neville for The Sporting News thinks "health permitting, [Joba] can be a 20-game winner and rack up 200-plus strikeouts a year."  Now wait, where have we heard that argument before?  Ah yes, with Jonathan Papelbon. 

Papelbon has become the most dominant closer in the majors with a 13.3 k/9 and I wonder if everyone still feels that 180-200 "starter" innings are as valuable to the Sox as his 56.1 "closer" innings have been.  Nobody seems to be suggesting otherwise!  Most if not all projections have Papelbon slated to close in ’08, not start, and they’re probably right.  With the emergence of Clay Buchholz, the Sox have remained mum.  And fans/reporters don’t seem to bring it up as if Papelbon might overhear and remember that he actually once wanted to start.   Well that story has come full circle and Paps wants to close now.  Chamberlain, meanwhile, seems to be running the same hamster wheel with one major difference:  the Yankees actually have a closer.

It’s an interesting conundrum.  In a way, Mariano Rivera is the reason to put him in the rotation while on the other hand Mariano Rivera is the reason to continue his development in relief.  The presence of Rivera provides reasoning to both keep him in the bullpen to be his successor or move him out because, hey, they already have Rivera.  There’s an obvious divide in thought here.

I’m of the belief that if Todd Jones can close, Rivera is not done.  Therefore Rivera, Luis Vizcaino, and Edwar Ramirez (in due time) plus one or two more effective relievers (and specialists, etc)  would be solid for 2008.  And I think everyone would be impressed by a sudden rotation of Wang, Pettitte, Hughes, Kennedy, and Joba the Starter.

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

Rumors and Questions

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If Cubs make the playoffs, they will be glad not to see the Marlins in the postseason.  After last night’s defeat, the Cubs haven’t beaten the Fish since April… of 2006.

Lots of buzz today, so here are some Rumors and Questions on the day:

  • Florida Marlins Fans, it may be disheartening for you, both of you, to know that David Hyde (with some help from Bill Murray) believes as though either Miguel Cabrera or Dontrelle Willis will indeed be dealt this offseason.  Tim crunched the numbers and thinks they should shed Willis’ contract.  If I had to choose, I’d agree with Mr. Hyde (not Dr. Jekyll) and wave goodbye to Miggy before the D-Train rolls out.  Cabrera is indisputably elite and could net a Hanley Ramirez or two.  Meanwhile, Dontrelle’s value is at an all time low.  Who would you deal?
  • Speaking of former Marlins, Buster Olney thinks the Tigers will re-sign Todd Jones.  When asked who will close for the Tigers next year, Manager Jim Leyland responded with a definitive "don’t know".  Well, maybe he’s getting forgetful in his old age, but we all know who: Joel Zumaya.  But is he ready?  Chris McKosky of the Detroit News isn’t sure.  What do you think?  If only he could lay off that Guitar Hero…
  • The Rangers and the Twins have each expressed interest in both Torii Hunter and, who else, Barry Bonds.  Twins Manager Ron Gardenhire weighs in positively on Bonds, while Joe Christensen says chances are slim but don’t rule it out.  Shooter Charley Walters says the Twins will try to re-sign Hunter.  But Hunter is from outside Arlington, Texas and when asked if he’s thought a little about going home, he told reporters "I haven’t thought about it a little bit.  I’ve thought about it a lot a bit."  Meanwhile, the Rangers players say "Thumbs up!" to Bonds.  I think the Rangers are a natural fit for both of these vets.
  • Also, Ken Rosenthal’s latest video on Foxsports.com breaks down the fates of Managers-Across-The-League.  Interestingly, he begins by praising Joe Torre for doing maybe his best job ever, and then notes how if the Yankees stumble in the postseason he might not be back…

 

Posted by: Nat Boyle

A-Rod, Partial Cubs Owner?

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UPDATE: Boras debunked the report.  Well, it was fun to discuss for a few hours.

Deadspin’s Will Leitch has an article in New York Magazine dissecting the Alex Rodriguez opt-out situation.  Leitch, through a source, has a new piece of info for us sure to generate some discussion.  He lists the Red Sox and Cubs as the teams most likely to lure A-Rod away from the Yankees, and lays out a unique Cub contract possibility:

Scott Boras knows which [ownership] group is most likely to be awarded the Cubs. The source says Boras has already been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next ten years while deferring a certain portion of money toward an eventual stake in the franchise.

David K. Li’s source feels that this might constitute tampering.  The group Leitch is likely referring to is the one headed by John Canning, who is currently a part-owner of the Brewers.

Pretty wild stuff.  Cubs fans can salivate over a lineup featuring Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and A-Rod.  Keep all of those guys healthy the next few years and they could have the league’s best offense.  Still, ten year contracts are pretty rare and quite risky.  It’s tough to project a player more than a few years out, but it’s going to take at least eight years to sign Rodriguez.

The Cubs have roughly $110MM on the books for 2008 (more on that in a separate post).  They entered the ’07 season with a payroll right around $100MM.  Even in a backloaded deal I’d imagine A-Rod would earn $20MM+ in his first year.  So if the Cubs want to go past the $130MM mark, they could have Rodriguez.  That’d put the Cubs third in payroll behind only the Yankees and Red Sox.

Lowell Seems Open To Yankees

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Rob Bradford of the Boston Herald spoke to Red Sox third baseman Mike Lowell recently about his future.  Like most players, Lowell has a list of teams he’d consider.  We know the Phillies are on that list, but it also appears that Lowell would also entertain jumping over to the Yankees.

As you know, Lowell came up through the Yankee system and made his Major League debut with the club in ’98.  The strong support Lowell received while moving up the system has kept them in a positive light in his eyes despite the rivalry.  Still, it’s been said that Lowell’s first choice is Boston and he might go for a two-year, $22MM deal.

Lowell is the fairly affordable third base alternative to Alex Rodriguez, should the superstar opt out.  It definitely seems possible that the Yankees and Red Sox "swap" third basemen this winter.  The difference between the two players so far has been 4.2 wins in A-Rod’s favor, according to Baseball Prospectus.   

Yanks Likely To Exercise Abreu’s Option

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Bobby Abreu has a $16MM option for the 2008 season with a $2MM buyout attached.  Effectively, it’s a $14MM decision for Brian Cashman.  Despite an awful start to the season, Abreu has solid counting stats and a .287/.367/.454 line overall.  Since June 1st, he’s hitting an elite .320/.398/.548 in 347 ABs.  Abreu will turn 34 in March.

According to both Buster Olney and Tyler Kepner of the New York Times, the option is a virtual lock to be picked up.  Most teams would be very eager to sign Abreu on a one-year, $14MM deal, and that’s what this amounts to.  Abreu would be much easier to trade than Johnny Damon, if Cashman wants to take that route.

Yankees Or Retirement For Pettitte

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On September 6th, Jayson Stark mentioned hearing speculation that Andy Pettitte would opt out of his contract after the season and become the best available starter.  But even then his source thought Pettitte’s main motivation would be to get more money or years and stay with the Yanks.

It’s clear now that Pettitte has no interest in sparking a bidding war for his services, even if he could.  According to Ed Price of the Newark Star-Ledger, it’s the Yankees or retirement for Pettitte in 2008.  It’s kind of like Kenny Rogers’ situation, only with an added focus on the desires of family.  Reading the quotes from Pettitte, it almost seems like he could just exercise the $16MM option rather than opt out to extract a few more million from the Yankees.  He just seems like the kind of guy who wouldn’t care.

You know what would be kind of funny?  If the Astros somehow convinced him to return, gave him $16MM, and then his elbow blew up.  OK, that might not be funny for some people.

Stark’s Latest: Clemens, Pettitte, Lowell

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Jayson Stark has a new Rumblings and Grumblings column up at ESPN.  Let’s discuss.

  • Most folks think Roger Clemens will retire after the season.  The "will he, won’t he" storyline is one I won’t mind avoiding this winter.  Remember, back in February Roger said he told his son it was "80-20 that I wasn’t going to play." He also said, "I’m not leaving anybody hanging. I don’t want to play."  Good riddance.
  • Andy Pettitte has a $16MM player option for 2008.  This is similar to an out clause, where it’s win-win for the player.  He only exercises it if he couldn’t get it on the open market.  Pettitte’s the best free agent starting pitcher if he opts out.  Stark seems to think he’d decline the option but then just re-up with the Yankees for more money and/or years.
  • Word is that Mike Lowell would enjoy playing for the Phillies if the Red Sox don’t re-sign him.  Gordon Edes isn’t sure if the Red Sox would offer him three years, and believes another team might go four.  A four-year deal would cover his age 34-37 seasons…probably a bad move.  Then again, what do I know?  I thought he was toast after 2005.

A-Rod And The Angels

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With the Yankees starting a series in L.A. on Monday, it was only natural for some Alex Rodriguez to the Angels speculation to surface.  Indeed, George King of the New York Post and Ben Villa of the L.A. Daily News mention the topic this morning.

King’s not completely sold that the Yankees will abstain from bidding if Rodriguez opts out.  As for Scott Boras, he’s not concerned about Brian Cashman’s assertion regarding the opt-out clause. 

Still, King notes that the Angels are one of few teams that can afford a $30MM player.  And Arte Moreno would love the marketing boost.  Moreno said in June that paying A-Rod $25MM+ would be disrespectful to other Angels players, despite the team’s seven-year, $118MM offer to Alfonso Soriano.  Most folks believe Moreno is just posturing, and I’m inclined to agree.  I think they’ll be involved if Alex opts out.

Villa simply mentions "whispers in the air" about the Angels pursuing Rodriguez this winter.

Don’t forget the Red Sox, who are expected to make a "huge push" for A-Rod if he opts out.

Rosenthal’s Latest: Damon, Glaus, Wells

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up; here are some rumor-related points of interest.

  • As you know, it doesn’t make sense for the Yankees to keep both Bobby Abreu and Johnny Damon around for 2008.  It’s just not an efficent way to spend $29MM.  Rosenthal says Damon would be open to waiving his no-trade clause, if the Yankees struck a deal with a team that fell under his 12-team protection.  Damon is apparently open to regular playing time on teams not located on the West Coast.  The White Sox, Phillies, Braves, or Astros might make sense, in my opinion.  The Yanks’ ability to pull an exercise-and-trade with Abreu’s 2008 option is hindered by his full no-trade protection.
  • Rosenthal believes the Blue Jays might aggressively shop Troy Glaus this winter.  Glaus surprisingly cleared waivers recently.  Glaus is holding all the cards – he has a full no-trade clause and a player option for 2009.
  • The Rockies will pass on David Wells, but the Dodgers are still interested.  The Rox might still go for Steve Trachsel if they opt for experience over potential.
  • Craig Monroe seems to be an option for second-tier clubs, especially if he becomes a free agent.  The Giants will pass. 

Yanks, Padres Fail To Reach Igawa Deal

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Disappointing lefty Kei Igawa will not be traded this season.  According to ESPN’s Buster Olney, the Yankees chose not to dump Igawa’s contract on the Padres, and the two sides couldn’t reach an agreement via trade.  The Padres had won the claim on Igawa, which shows just how little interest there was around baseball.

As I mentioned a couple days ago, the Yankees don’t really have an opening for Igawa in 2008 if all goes according to plan.  Many teams have shown past interest in Igawa, including the Orioles, Mariners, Padres, D’Backs, Dodgers, Mets, Cubs, Braves, Tigers, and Indians.  Igawa had expressed a desire to pitch on the West Coast.

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