Let The A-Rod Speculation Begin
In most towns, when the third baseman hits .290/.392/.523, no one considers it "sucking." Among 3Bs, only Miguel Cabrera, Garrett Atkins, Chipper Jones, and David Wright outhit A-Rod. His OBP was third best for the position.
Everyone’s favorite whipping boy enters his age 31 season in 2007. The Rangers are covering a large part of his contract, so he’s owed $16MM annually through 2010. While it’s still huge, Rodriguez at four years, $64MM is a reasonable commitment for a superstar. Even the fairly conservative PECOTA projection system from Baseball Prospectus says he’ll be worth over $66MM over that time period.
Rodriguez waived his NTC to come to New York; would he waive it again this winter to escape the scrutiny? And can he still hold his own at shortstop? We hear the Angels mentioned as a suitor. I’m sure the White Sox wouldn’t mind him at short. The Phillies are in dire need of a third baseman who can hit. The Dodgers are short at third as well. The Astros and even the Pirates have money to spend. Basically, any team with the money and requisite young talent can find a way to get Rodriguez into the lineup. Cashman probably wouldn’t send him to the Red Sox or Blue Jays, however.
Get ready for a winter of blithering sportswriters calling for a Rodriguez trade. On a Yankee team with little concern for payroll, subtracting a reasonably priced superstar makes no sense, objectively. We’ll see how the team responds to the media pressure.
Daisuke Matsuzaka Video
A little more on Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka. Check out this video of him throwing his various pitches. It’s the best look I’ve had at his breaking ball. It might be a screwball or something weird, but let’s remember that Jeff Passan has established that it’s not a gyroball.
When we last checked in, there was a 50/50 chance of Matsuzaka being posted by the Lions. Here’s a rundown on the suitors:
This Boston Herald article informed us that the Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets are currently scouting Matsuzaka in Japan. As of September 11th, his numbers looked like this. Newsday tells us the Mets will be aggressive in their pursuit. The Rangers are scouting Matsuzaka as well. The Orioles expressed interest in August.
The Dodgers and Mariners are often linked to Matsuzaka, but I haven’t seen anything lately on those clubs.
Angels Look To Lock Up K-Rod
According to Mike DiGiovanna of the Los Angeles Times, one of the biggest priorities for the Angels this offseason will be locking up closer Francisco Rodriguez to a long-term deal. K-Rod is due for free agency after the ’08 season, and the Yankees are already said to be eyeing him up as the heir to Mariano Rivera.
This year is Rodriguez’s age 24 season, and he’s already accumulated 100 saves. He’s showing the best command of his career, though the side effect is that he’s got the worst hit rate of his career. Still, 6.5 hits per nine is pretty damn good. It’s also apparent that Rodriguez is allowing more flyballs than ever. Probably not a big deal, as his home run rate remains solid.
The elephant in the room, at least in my mind, is Rodriguez’s delivery. Said Will Carroll in February:
"It’s incredibly hard to predict player injuries, though if you were going to put money on anyone’s elbow blowing up, the safe bet would be on K-Rod. There’s almost nothing mechanically right with his delivery and he showed all sorts of indicators last year with a tender elbow, a forearm strain, and an obvious difficulty throwing his fastball."
This season, Rodriguez has experienced nothing worse than a hamstring cramp. I asked Will today: will K-Rod’s contract extension bomb? Do the red flags he mentioned in the preseason still portend elbow surgery? Will likened Rodriguez to a lit firecracker that doesn’t go off: "You’d sit and wait, wondering if it was a dud or a long fuse. You’d go up to it slowly, ready to dive away if it went off."
Will did point out that Baseball Prospectus’s PECOTA system likes him – it suggests K-Rod will be worth anywhere from $10-15MM annually through 2010. Obviously, only time will tell.
Will Bonds Hot Streak Affect Future?
Since the beginning of August, Barry Bonds has been on a tear. He’s hitting .329/.459/.709 over those 27 games. The slugging ranks 4th among Major Leaguers, behind Travis Hafner, Ryan Howard, and Adam LaRoche.
Overall, Bonds’s 1.001 OPS this season ranks 11th in baseball, right behind Miguel Cabrera. Any reports of his demise were greatly exaggerated. Bonds has appeared in 112 games this season, or about 81% of the Giants’ contests. The 130 game pace beats preseason expectations. He also sports the game’s best OBP at .462. The OBP leaderboard is littered with similarly slow-footed sluggers, so we shouldn’t hold that against him too much. The one true flaw in the 42 year-old’s game is his left field defense.
Aside from Ryan Howard, Bonds has been the game’s hottest hitter over the last week. It’s sparked more debate about his future. Bonds says he’d like to stay, but it’s unclear whether the Giants want him back to pursue Hank Aaron’s record. A lot of folks are dismissing the once-popular destination of Oakland because of Frank Thomas‘s resurgence. But if Thomas sticks to his desire for a two-year deal, the A’s seem likely to let him walk. If they can secure Bonds as their DH for less than $10MM it could be a steal.
The Yankees are an intriguing option if they choose to let Gary Sheffield go and use Giambi or Bonds at first base. Same goes for the Red Sox, who could stick David Ortiz at first and create the most dangerous trio in baseball. Bonds could also fit with the Tigers, Mariners, or Rangers in ’07. The Dodgers could be a long shot; they could use Bonds at first base for a year if Nomar Garciaparra departs.
Will Roger Clemens Pitch In 2007?
Deja vu all over again: it looks like we’re in for another winter of Roger Clemens rumors. With a 2.50 ERA in 80 innings, his delayed debut has been a smashing success. The only problem is that the Astros have a nearly unsurmountable deficit in the playoff standings.
As Buster Olney speculates in his blog today, the Red Sox will probably be willing to pay the Rocket $4MM a month to get them to the World Series in 2007. Olney figures the chances of this happening are better than 50%. Would the Yankees counter with $5MM a month and a game-used Luis Sojo baseball bat? Perhaps.
Will The Lions Post Daisuke Matsuzaka?
Will they or won’t they? As he would’ve been in 2005, Japanese hurler Daisuke Matsuzaka could be the best starting pitcher on the market if the Seibu Lions post him. Whether they’ll do it is still an open question.
Seattle Times reporter Larry Stone has examined the situation carefully, and it seems like a 50/50 proposition. If the Lions do decide to post him, teams must bid just for the rights to negotiate with Matsuzaka. Stone speculates that the bidding for these rights could exceed $30MM. You have to figure it would take around five years and $55 million to sign the prospective Scott Boras client after that.
For those not scoring at home, that’s the equivalent of $17MM annually for Matsuzaka. If he were to flop, it would be colossal. The two names that always come up for Matsuzaka are the Yankees and Mariners. The Yanks have the cash, and the Ms have the Japanese connection. It’s possible the Mets, Red Sox, Dodgers, or Angels could get involved as well.
I wrote about Matsuzaka extensively for my fantasy baseball blog, RotoAuthority. You can scroll through that background by clicking here. At the time, it was believed Matsuzaka threw a fascinating pitch called the gyroball, which has yet to be used in the Major Leagues. However, Yahoo’s Jeff Passan debunked that myth back in March. All he had to do was ask.
Olney: Would Yanks Exercise Sheff’s Option?
With Bobby Abreu now under contract for 2007, it seemed like a foregone conclusion that the Yankees would not exercise Gary Sheffield‘s $13MM option. He seems poised to head up a small group of free agent right fielders.
However, Buster Olney makes a good argument for the Yankees to exercise his option even with Abreu in the fold. Remember, the Yankees are a team Olney knows well; he wrote a book about them. Sure, Sheffield may not be worth the full $13MM next year. But one of New York’s competitive advantages is its ability to take on salaries. How many teams would salivate at the idea of getting Sheff on a one-year deal to minimize their risk? Think Theo Epstein wouldn’t jump on that? It’s like last winter’s Furcal contract, only better.
After considering Olney’s argument, I realize that it would be silly to let a premium player walk away from a reasonable short-term contract just because of a position logjam. As many have speculated, Sheffield could learn to play first base.
Bobby Abreu Update
About 29 hours remain for GMs to get their deals done. Plenty of new stuff popped up this morning, as many sportswriters were saving good stuff for the Sunday edition.
Let’s start off with the Bobby Abreu saga. Late last night, we went to bed with Jayson Stark’s update as the last word. Seemed like talks between the Yankees and Phillies were in advanced stages, and that it would be Abreu, Cory Lidle, and all their salary for a couple of lower-grade prospects.
The latest from Ken Rosenthal is that the Red Sox are getting into the game, trying to mess with the Yankees’ stuff.
Indeed, Abreu’s agent has indicated that he will accept a trade to the Red Sox, Yankees, or Mets. A deal to these teams would not require Abreu’s 2008 option picked up. Sam Borden’s article goes back to Jon Lieber and Scott Proctor as part of this deal. I think I read somewhere that the Phillies could consider Proctor as a starter next year.
Stark: Yanks Close To Abreu Trade
No, those weren’t Jayson Stark’s exact words. But he does have a late night trade update indicating that the Yankees and Phillies are hammering out a deal for Bobby Abreu and Cory Lidle.
Apparently the two clubs are negotiating which prospects will head to Philly. The Phillies are said to be targeting shortstop C.J. Henry and starter Steven White. For some reason Stark says C.J. Wilson in his update, but I believe he meant to say Henry.
C.J. Henry was the Yanks’ first round draft pick in ’05. He’s the best athlete in the system according to Baseball America. The 20 year-old has a ways to go with the bat; he’s hitting .237/.326/.350 for low Class A Charleston.
White is a 25 year-old starter who throws in the low 90s. He’s battled injury issues but conquered Double A this year after his second try. He’s stumbled a bit in Triple A.
The Yankees are expected to assume Abreu’s entire contract. I have a feeling that in three years no one will remember which prospects the Phillies got for him, similar to the Mark McGwire trade in 1997.
According to an excellent piece by Baseball Prospectus’s Nate Silver, the Yankees stand to gain about 1.5 wins by acquiring Abreu. Such an acquisition should increase their chance of making the playoffs by 14%. And replacing Sidney Ponson with Lidle is definitely a plus.
Stark: Phils To Package Abreu and Lieber?
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has a new lead on the Bobby Abreu discussions: the Phils have begun pitching Abreu and Jon Lieber as a package deal. Stark says that only the Yankees could consider it, and that the price would actually lessen in this scenario because of all the salary.
Check out the Phils’ salary page at Cot’s Baseball Contracts; they’ve got a host of ugly commitments handcuffing Pat Gillick. Beyond Abreu and Lieber, there are contracts for Pat Burrell, Randy Wolf, Mike Lieberthal, Arthur Rhodes, and Tom Gordon. In my opinion, if you’re going to blow it up, don’t half-ass it – gut this team Marlins-style. Well, not to that extent, but Jimmy Rollins probably is the only high-salary player that should be retained. And only then because the market for shortstops is weak.