Orioles Will Receive “Substantial” Compensation If Duquette Deal Completed
Several reports have been floating around about Orioles executive vice president Dan Duquette and the oft-discussed possibility of him moving to the Blue Jays to become the division rival’s president. The outcome still seems tough to predict, but action is increasing. Here’s the latest:
- The Orioles are considering several compensation packages that would allow Duquette to leave for Toronto, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. While no deal appears close and talks could still fall apart, Connolly notes that this could be the closest the two sides have come to an agreement given that the O’s are now actually looking at offers. Duquette has reportedly made his interest in the Jays’ job known to Orioles ownership, which could explain why the O’s are more open to letting him go, though that doesn’t mean they’ll relax their compensation demands. A top prospect like Jeff Hoffman would only be one part of Baltimore’s asking price, Connolly writes.
- If the O’s continue with these high demands, Sportsnet.ca’s Shi Davidi opines that “the Blue Jays should, and in all likelihood would, look elsewhere in their search for a new president and CEO,” noting that Duquette is far from the only qualified executive who would be interested in the Toronto job.
- Despite the rising value of top front office minds around baseball, “many in the industry will privately question the Blue Jays if they part with a top prospect for an executive,” Sportsnet.ca’s Ben Nicholson-Smith writes. An expendable Major League roster piece like Dioner Navarro or Kevin Pillar might be more palatable compensation for the Jays, though Nicholson-Smith notes that the O’s will want more.
Earlier Updates
- Kubatko hears that the Orioles are pushing for more substantial compensation as a trade-off for not filing tampering charges against the Blue Jays (Twitter link).
- Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun gets the sense that while a resolution to the situation isn’t close, it’s certainly gotten closer over the past few days (Twitter link).
- ESPN’s Buster Olney reports (via Twitter) that if a deal gets done, the compensation for Baltimore will be “substantial.” Olney hears that one name that has been discussed is right-hander Jeff Hoffman, whom the Blue Jays selected ninth overall in the 2014 draft. Hoffman was at one point in the mix to go first overall or certainly in the top five, but he slipped a bit due to the fact that he had Tommy John surgery shortly before the draft.
- A deal is “getting close and going to happen,” a source tells ESPN.com’s Jim Bowden (Twitter link), who cautions that the information is not confirmed. Of course, that would appear to conflict with another seemingly unconfirmed report yesterday from Sportsnet.ca radio host Bob McCown (via Ben Nicholson-Smith), which stated that Paul Beeston would stay on for another year as the Jays’ president and CEO.
- Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca reported yesterday that MLB was running out of patience with the dalliance and was pressuring Baltimore to get something done or close down the possibility. Perhaps looking to increase its own leverage, the Orioles have themselves discussed the possibility of filing tampering charges against Toronto, Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com tweets.
Nationals Sign Max Scherzer
7:56pm: Scherzer’s $50MM signing bonus is broken down by Fangraphs’ Kiley McDaniel, who reports that Scherzer will receive $5MM of the bonus in 2015 as paid out in twice-monthly in-season installments. A similar structure will result in Scherzer getting the rest of his bonus, with the righty being paid $15MM in 2019, $15MM in 2020 and $15MM in 2021.
5:25pm: Scherzer will earn $10MM in 2015 and $15MM in each of 2016, 2017 and 2018, ESPN’s Jayson Stark reports in a breakdown of the contract. The deferred payments begin after the 2018 season, as while Scherzer is scheduled to earn $35MM in each of the 2019, 2020 and 2021 seasons, all of that money will be paid to him through 2028.
JAN. 22, 12:33pm: Scherzer’s contract does not have a no-trade clause, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter links). The Nationals feel that the deferrals and 14-year payment structure of the contract serve as de facto no-trade protection, and as Heyman points out, Scherzer will receive 10-and-5 rights after the 2019 season.
Additionally, Scherzer’s deal calls for a $500K bonus for each Cy Young Award he wins. He’ll receive $250K for finishing second, $150K for finishing third, $100K for finishing fourth and $75K for finishing fifth.
JAN. 21: The Nationals have officially agreed to sign the market’s top starting pitcher to join a rotation that already ranked among the league’s best. Ace right-hander Max Scherzer will come to D.C. for a seven-year term that will run through his age-36 season.
Scherzer will earn $210MM for seven years of work, but will receive that payout over twice that duration. The contract’s unusual structure has a significant impact on its value. Scherzer will receive $15MM per season for the next 14 years, meaning the Nationals will be paying Scherzer through 2028. Scherzer’s deferral is, obviously, the largest one in MLB contract history, leaving Bobby Bonilla and the Mets’ lengthy $29.8MM deferral in the dust.
That delayed payment drags down the deal’s true worth when discounted to present value. While it appears that the league will value the deal at $185MM for purposes of luxury tax calculations, the actual savings to the Nationals are likely much more significant, as Dave Cameron of Fangraphs explains. (In Cameron’s estimation, Scherzer may have achieved only $10MM more in present value than Jon Lester received from the Cubs.)
The deal’s structure does, however, also protect Scherzer by including a $50MM signing bonus that will be paid in even installments over the 14-year term. In concert with Washington, DC’s lack of non-resident income tax and Scherzer’s planned move to Florida, he figures to reap tens of millions of dollars in tax savings. Needless to say, it is all but impossible to arrive at a precise valuation of the contract, both to team and player.
The Nats’ emergence as a top bidder for Scherzer came as somewhat of a surprise, given the terrific starting pitching they already had (including Stephen Strasburg, Jordan Zimmermann, Gio Gonzalez and Doug Fister, with the signing bumping Tanner Roark, who himself had a very good 2014 season, out of the rotation). But signing Scherzer should help the Nationals continue to contend in a weak NL East division beyond next winter, when Zimmermann, Fister, Ian Desmond and Denard Span all can become eligible for free agency.
The Scherzer deal also gives the Nationals the option to trade someone like Zimmermann or Fister within the next few months, potentially getting good value for one of their free-agents-to-be while maintaining a formidable rotation. A trade involving Strasburg, who is eligible for free agency following the 2016 season, could also be a possibility. (One also wonders whether Roark, with his lengthy and affordable control rights, might also be had.) The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga tweets, though, that the Nationals won’t necessarily have to trade anyone to make room for Scherzer.
Though MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes rated Scherzer the top available free agent this winter, actual news about Scherzer had been slow in coming before this weekend. He and another top starting pitcher, James Shields, lingered on the market long after everyone else in the top ten had signed. Boras and Scherzer had reportedly been seeking a $200MM contract after rejecting a $144MM extension offer from the Tigers last spring.
Seven years is, of course, a very long time in a pitcher’s career. Via MLBTR’s Transaction Tracker, only four pitchers in recent history have received seven-year deals. Two of those were relatively recent extensions for Clayton Kershaw and Felix Hernandez. C.C. Sabathia‘s seven-year deal worked out well for the first few seasons, but Sabathia has struggled with injury and diminished velocity in the last two years. A fourth seven-year deal, the Giants’ pact with Barry Zito, was a bust, although Zito, unlike Scherzer, showed signs of decline even before signing his contract. Depending upon how one values the deal (see above), Scherzer’s contract would exceed Hernandez’s $175MM contract and would also top Justin Verlander‘s 2013 extension with the Tigers, which tacked five years and $140MM onto Verlander’s existing deal to total seven years and $180MM.
Nationals GM Mike Rizzo drafted Scherzer in the first round in 2006 while Rizzo was vice president of scouting for the Diamondbacks. Scherzer quickly emerged as a solid starting pitcher, making the Majors less than two years after being drafted and one year after signing. After two seasons in Arizona, he headed to Detroit and developed into an ace, posting three good seasons in his mid-20s before winning his first Cy Young award in 2013. He had a strong repeat season in 2014, throwing 220 1/3 innings with a 3.15 ERA, 10.3 K/9 and 2.6 BB/9.
Even without Scherzer, the Nationals already appeared to be easily the best team in the NL East — they won the division by 17 games last year, and the only other team in the division that has decisively improved its roster for 2015 is the Marlins. The Nationals’ acquisition of Scherzer strengthens their already-strong status as NL East favorites.
Scherzer’s departure leaves the win-now Tigers without their top starting pitcher, although they still have David Price, Anibal Sanchez, Verlander, and the newly acquired Alfredo Simon and Shane Greene. Price and Simon are eligible for free agency next winter.
Scherzer rejected the Tigers’ qualifying offer earlier this offseason, so the Nationals will sacrifice their first-round pick of this year’s draft, No. 27 overall, as a result of the signing. The Tigers will acquire the No. 35 pick.
CBS Sports’ Jon Heyman tweeted that the deal was agreed to after being first to report that the Nationals and another team were in talks for Scherzer. The Washington Post’s Adam Kilgore later tweeted that the sides were close to a deal. Tyler Kepner of the New York Times (via Twitter), Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (in a tweet), Yahoo! Sports’ Jeff Passan (likewise), and Heyman reported details of the contract deferral.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Stewart: D-Backs No Longer Pursuing Shields
The Diamondbacks are no longer pursuing right-hander James Shields, general manager Dave Stewart told reporters today, including Jack Magruder of FOX Sports Arizona (Twitter link). Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic adds that Stewart said the market for Shields changed following Max Scherzer‘s seven-year deal with the Nationals (Twitter link).
Stewart has publicly expressed his club’s interest in Shields in the past, opining that Shields was a “throwback” type of pitcher that would appreciate the D-Backs’ old school approach. Somewhat controversially, Stewart speculated that Shields might view the D-Backs as a “true” baseball team as opposed to others that are more driven by numbers and analytics.
Arizona could undoubtedly benefit from Shields’ presence in an otherwise thin rotation, but Stewart said at the time he acknowledged his interest in Shields that he was also aiming to get the team’s payroll under $100MM. Since then, reports have indicated that Arizona is actively trying to shed payroll, making Shields seem a tough fit. The D-Backs have Jeremy Hellickson and Josh Collmenter locked into their rotation, but beyond that, there’s little certainty. Rubby De La Rosa, Allen Webster, Trevor Cahill, Vidal Nuno and Chase Anderson are among the rotation candidates on the 40-man roster, and they’ve also added former Mariners starter Blake Beavan on a minor league deal this offseason.
Giants Sign Gregor Blanco To Two-Year Deal
Gregor Blanco won’t have to worry about arbitration again in his career, as the outfielder has signed a two-year contract that buys out his final two seasons of arbitration eligibility, the team officially announced on Thursday.
Blanco, a client of Octagon’s Jose Mijares, will reportedly earn $7.5MM over the life of the deal: $3.6MM in 2015 and $3.9MM in 2016. The 31-year-old had filed for a $4MM salary next year, with the team countering at $3.3MM, as documented in MLBTR’s Arbitration Tracker. The deal keeps him on track to reach free agency before the 2017 campaign.
Blanco seems likely to function as a fourth outfielder next year, now that San Francisco has signed Nori Aoki. But he obviously represents a key part of the club’s plans, especially given the injury history of center fielder Angel Pagan.
Blanco, who swings from the left side, has enjoyed a productive three-year run thus far with the Giants. Over that stretch, he has averaged 469 plate appearances annually while producing a league-average .257/.336/.355 slash. Though his defensive ratings took a step back last year, he has generally been valued as an above-average glove and two-to-three win player in a slightly less-than full-time role.
Manuel Lira of Venezuelan outlet Lider en Deportes was the first to report the deal. Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle first tweeted the year-to-year breakdown.
Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.
Ryan Vogelsong Likely To Return To Giants
3:22pm: The Giants and Vogelsong are working toward a one-year deal, and it seems likely to happen, tweets Hank Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle.
THURSDAY, 11:07am: The Giants are in “active discussions” with Vogelsong, tweets Crasnick, though nothing is completed.
9:54am: The Astros have not been told that Vogelsong has decided to sign elsewhere, ESPN.com’s Jerry Crasnick reports (Twitter links). Houston appears to be waiting and watching at the moment, per the report.
WEDNESDAY: While yesterday it looked like Ryan Vogelsong was on the verge of signing a one-year deal with the Astros, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports now reports that the right-hander has “shifted course” and is in serious discussions with the Giants about a reunion (Twitter link). Earlier today, MLB.com’s Chris Haft wrote that San Francisco remained in contact with the 37-year-old Vogelsong.
Vogelsong spent the 2011-14 seasons in San Francisco, pitching to a 3.74 ERA with 7.0 K/9 and 3.0 BB/9 in 657 2/3 innings and winning a pair of World Series rings along the way. Those numbers were skewed somewhat by an injury-shortened 2013 campaign that saw Vogelsong post a 5.73 ERA in 103 1/3 innings, but he rebounded to a 4.00 ERA over the life of 184 2/3 innings in 2014.
The Giants appear to have a full rotation with Madison Bumgarner, Matt Cain, Tim Hudson, Jake Peavy and Tim Lincecum all in the fold, plus excellent swingman Yusmeiro Petit waiting in the wings as a safety net. However, both Cain and Hudson are on the mend from surgery, while Lincecum has deteriorated over the past three seasons and Petit has never thrown more than 117 innings in the Majors.
Red Sox Unlikely To Make Significant Rotation Upgrade
While many fans are waiting to see the Red Sox add a front-line starter to “complete” their offseason rebuild, so to speak, general manager Ben Cherington implied on Thursday that such a move is unlikely. As WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford writes, Cherington explained that the Sox are more focused on the five arms they currently have in house — Clay Buchholz, Joe Kelly, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello and Justin Masterson — and adding depth than they are on making a big splash to add to the rotation.
“We’re pursuing some stuff but I think it’s more what you would classify as depth related,” Cherington said. “…We like where we’re at. We like the collection of pitchers we have. We think there’s untapped potential in the group and the collection we have now can give us a strong pitching staff this year.”
Regarding James Shields, specifically, Cherington said that the Sox met with his agent at the Winter Meetings in San Diego last month, but he was quick to add that they met with a number of agents and didn’t single out Shields’ agent, Page Odle, in any way. “We’re pursuing some opportunities maybe on some depth in certain areas, but there’s nothing on the front burner that would grab headlines,” Cherington added.
Boston has been commonly linked to Shields as well as trade rumors/speculation regarding Cole Hamels and, over the past few days, Jordan Zimmermann. However, the Sox are also set to cross the luxury tax threshold as it is, and therefore, adding a significant salary to the rotation would be even more costly for Boston than it would appear on the surface. In addition, the team has already sacrificed a pair of draft picks to add Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, and while some would say that makes it easier for them to part with a third pick to bring in someone of Shields’ ilk (he’d cost them “only” a third-round pick after forfeiting a second-rounder and a Comp Balance Round B pick), the Sox may not wish to deplete their draft pool any further.
White Sox To Sign Geovany Soto
The White Sox and catcher Geovany Soto have agreed to terms on a minor league contract for the 2015 season, reports Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com. The Kinzer Management Group client will be invited to Major League Spring Training and compete for a 25-man roster spot, Levine adds (Twitter links).
Soto, 32, missed much of the 2014 season as he recovered from offseason surgeries on his left foot and right knee, and a groin injury sidelined him for two weeks in July as well. That trio of physical ailments limited him to just 87 plate appearances between the Rangers and Athletics, though he was expected to handle the bulk of Texas’ catching duties at the onset of the season. Overall, Soto batted .250/.302/.363 with one homer on the year. The former NL Rookie of the Year looked much sharper with the Rangers in 2013 when he batted .245/.328/.466 with nine homers in 184 trips to the plate.
Soto’s performance has fluctuated fairly significantly on a year-to-year basis, but the cumulative sum of his efforts over the past five seasons and over the entirety of his career has been roughly a league-average bat, in terms of OPS+. A lifetime .248/.334/.436 hitter, Soto offers above-average plate discipline and pop for a catcher when he’s healthy, but he does come with a fairly lengthy injury history.
Tyler Flowers currently projects to be the everyday catcher for the White Sox, with 2014 backup Adrian Nieto, waiver claim Rob Brantly and minor league signee George Kottaras all fighting for time behind the dish as well. I’d wager that Soto’s track record gives him a leg up over much of the competition, provided he’s healthy. Ultimately, I could see him overtaking Flowers as the starter, given the fact that Flowers’ .241/.297/.396 batting line was bolstered by an unsustainable .355 average on balls in play. If that number regresses toward his career mark of .308 and Flowers continues striking out at a 35 to 36 percent clip, it wouldn’t be surprising if another starter emerged for the ChiSox eventually.
Brewers Exploring Pitching Upgrades
1:45pm: GM Doug Melvin tells Jim Bowden on MLB Network Radio that his club hasn’t made a play for Shields and has not made a phone call to his camp. The team’s priority, according to Melvin, is upgrading the bullpen, where they’d like to add one or two pieces. Should the Brewers add a starter, it won’t be someone of Shields’ caliber, Melvin added (All Twitter links).
1:31pm: Following their trade of Yovani Gallardo, the Brewers are casting a wide net as they consider pitching upgrades, reports Jon Heyman of CBS Sports (Twitter link). Although all indications since the deal have pointed to the young Jimmy Nelson stepping into the rotation to fill Gallardo’s slot, Heyman lists James Shields as a potential candidate for Milwaukee. He also notes that Francisco Rodriguez and Rafael Soriano are considerations for the Brewers, and trades are possible as well.
Looking at next year’s payroll (via Cot’s Contracts), the Brewers project to come in around $97MM (when factoring in league-minimum players needed to round out the roster). That’s lower than their 2014 Opening Day mark of ~$103.7MM, but it seems like they’d be hard-pressed to fit Shields without going well over that mark. Of course, a back-loaded deal could make sense, as about $45MM is coming off the books next winter with Aramis Ramirez, Kyle Lohse, Jonathan Broxton, Gerardo Parra and possibly Adam Lind all due for free agency (and they’ll be free of Gallardo’s commitment — of which they’re still paying $4MM — as well).
Among the club’s guaranteed contracts, only Ryan Braun is due for a substantial ($7MM) raise. And, as far as their arbitration eligible players are concerned, Jean Segura and Wily Peralta represent the only significant cases. Each will be arb-eligible for only the first time. It should also be noted that the Brewers have plenty of precedent for waiting out the starting pitching market, as they agreed to terms with Matt Garza one year ago tomorrow and also added Lohse in Spring Training of 2013.
Still, a Shields addition would likely require a record-setting payroll in Milwaukee, which does make it somewhat of a stretch to envision. Adding an arm like Rodriguez or Soriano to shore up the bullpen, however, would seem to be a much more plausible plan of attack for GM Doug Melvin. While Milwaukee did add a power arm in the Gallardo trade (Corey Knebel), there’s little experience and stability at the back of the relief corps.
Rangers Acquire Carlos Corporan, Designate Gonzalez Germen
11:08am: The deal is official, per Rangers executive VP of communications John Blake (via Twitter). To create roster space, the club designated righty Gonzalez Germen, who was acquired only yesterday.
9:40am: The Rangers have agreed to a deal to acquire backstop Carlos Corporan from the Astros, Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports on Twitter. Corporan was designated for assignment yesterday to create roster space for the signing of Colby Rasmus. Righty Akeem Bostick is headed to the Astros in return, Jeff Wilson of the Forth Worth Star-Telegram tweets.
Corporan, 31, is set to earn $975K in his first season of arbitration eligibility. That means that he’ll come with two more years of control. His role was occupied by trade acquisition Hank Conger, and the presence of the younger Max Stassi rendered Corporan a largely redundant piece for Houston.
The switch-hitter should, however, be more useful for a Rangers club whose big league options included Robinson Chirinos, who had never even seen 100 plate appearances in a big league season before last year, along with largely untested 23-year-old Tomas Telis and minor league non-roster invite Chris Gimenez.
Last year, Corporan put up a .235/.302/.376 slash and six home runs over 190 trips to the plate. That line is fairly representative of Corporan’s offensive profile in the majors: low-average, low-OBP, solid power. In a backup role in Houston, he has rated out as a reasonably capable option behind the dish.
Bostick, 19, was a (below-slot) second round pick out of high school in 2013. He seems a nice return for a player who was in DFA limbo, though Corporan’s market was surely active before he technically lost his roster spot. Bostick struggled to a 5.18 ERA in 92 Class A frames last year, though that may have been a somewhat aggressive assignment. Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs included him at the tail end (27th) of his recent list of the most promising Rangers prospects, explaining that Bostick has plenty of raw talent but is in need of refinement.
Rangers, Astros Discussing Carlos Corporan Trade
JAN. 20: The Rangers and Astros are still discussing a Corporan trade following his DFA earlier today, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports. SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo hears that Texas is emerging as the “clear favorite” to acquire Corporan (Twitter link).
JAN. 15: The Rangers are still on the hunt for catching help, and a pair of reports have them in pursuit of Astros backstop Carlos Corporan and free agent Geovany Soto. Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle reports that the Astros and Rangers have discussed a trade of Corporan, while Jeff Wilson of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram adds (via Twitter) that the team is also interested in Soto.
Corporan, 31, batted .235/.302/.376 with six homers in 190 plate appearances for Houston last year. Over the past three seasons, he’s batted .237/.297/.383 with 17 homers in 485 PAs. That line should give some kind of rough expectation for the type of production that Corporan can provide — questionable on-base skills with respectable pop for a catcher. (His .146 isolated power in that time is 11 points better than the league-average catcher in 2014.)
From a defensive standpoint, Corporan has typically graded out very well in terms of pitch-framing, and his 25.5 percent caught-stealing rate over the past three seasons is merely a tick below the league average of 27 percent. Corporan is arbitration eligible for the first time this winter and projects to earn a very reasonable $1MM. He can be controlled through the 2017 season.
Soto, of course, is no stranger to the Rangers organization, having spent parts of the past three seasons in Texas. With the Rangers, he’s batted a combined .223/.287/.401, displaying the same low-OBP, above-average pop skill set that Corporan has brought to the table. He’s thrown out a superior 28.6 percent of runners in the past three seasons, though his once strong framing grades have declined, per Baseball Prospectus and StatCorner.com.
It seems then, based on these targets, that the Rangers are comfortable without a big-name catcher behind the dish after missing out on a notable name yesterday in the form of Evan Gattis, who was traded to the Astros. Any catcher acquired by Texas would pair with Robinson Chirinos, whose 338 PAs were far and away a career-high last season for an injury-plagued Rangers club. Chirinos hit .239/.290/.415 with 13 homers in that time.