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Dave Dombrowski Discusses Phillies’ Offseason Talks With Jeff Hoffman

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Reports emerged back in December that the Phillies had interest in re-signing free agent reliever Jeff Hoffman, before Hoffman eventually landed with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $33MM contract in early January.  Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other reporters this week that the club indeed had interest in a reunion with the All-Star, and “very aggressively” made an offer seemingly in range of Toronto’s offer early in the season.

“I can’t tell you that the number he ended up signing for was substantially different than the one that we ended up offering him,” Dombrowski said.  “But he wasn’t prepared to take that at that time. [Hoffman’s agents] just thought they were going to get much more.”

Hoffman technically did land more in two other offers — a three-year, $40MM agreement with the Orioles, and then a five-year deal with the Braves in the $45MM-48MM range that would’ve brought the righty more in overall value, if not average annual value.  However, Baltimore and Atlanta both walked away from those deals due to misgivings over Hoffman’s medicals.  The Braves’ issue wasn’t made public, but the Orioles had a concern over Hoffman’s right shoulder.  Notably, the O’s weren’t troubled enough to abandon their pursuit of Hoffman entirely, and made a new offer after taking their $40MM offer off the table.

The Athletic’s Matt Gelb paints a different picture of Philadelphia’s talks with Hoffman, as sources tell Gelb that the Phillies told agents that they were looking for relievers who would sign for one-year contracts.  This would naturally run entirely counter to Dombrowski’s claim of an offer in the three-year, $33MM range, and Gelb isn’t sure if the Phillies presented Hoffman with a formal offer whatsoever.  While the team did keep checking in Hoffman in the first month of the offseason, Gelb and Lauber writes that the Phillies stopped pursuing Hoffman once Jordan Romano signed in early December.

Romano, indeed, signed a one-year deal, worth $8.5MM.  It was essentially an unofficial swap of relievers between the Phillies and Jays, though while Hoffman had a strong 2024 season, Romano threw only 9 1/3 innings due to elbow problems that required an arthroscopic surgery.  The Blue Jays chose to non-tender Romano in the wake of this lost year, moving on from their former closer rather than pay him a projected $7.75MM in arbitration.

Dombrowski indicated at the end of last season and again this week that Philadelphia would only be re-signing one at most of Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, and the team ended up going with Romano over either of the free agent duo.  Unsurprisingly, Dombrowski framed the decision as a baseball move, rather than anything related to salaries or contractual demands.

“We just moved off [Hoffman] and did Romano because we thought [Orion] Kerkering was ready to step up and, I don’t want to say take on more because his role has been important, but pitch more at the back and high leverage,” Dombrowski said.

While we’re only a month into the 2025 season, the early returns on the Phillies’ decision haven’t been promising.  Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in bullpen ERA, even despite superb numbers posted by closer Jose Alvarado and set-up man Matt Strahm.  Alvarado has quickly assumed closer duties since Romano has struggled to a 13.50 ERA in his first 9 1/3 innings as a Phillie, and Kerkering also has a 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 frames of work this year.  Since we’re still dealing with small sample sizes here, it is worth noting that most of Kerkering’s damage took place in two rough outings this past week, though Romano has already allowed multiple runs over four of his outings.

Hoffman, meanwhile, has excelled in the first full-time closing assignment of his 10 MLB seasons.  The right-hander is a perfect 6-for-6 in save changes and has a 1.35 ERA over 13 1/3 innings for Toronto, with an eye-opening 39.6% strikeout rate and 2.1% walk rate.  Even with the caveats of a 92.1% strand rate and a .259 BABIP, Hoffman’s 1.16 SIERA is even lower than his already incredible ERA, further enhancing just how dominant Hoffman has been this year.

Should he keep pitching at anywhere near this level, Hoffman’s performance could lead to some second-guessing in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Philadelphia.  Turning to the Phillies in particular, Lauber feels the team will again find itself having to acquire some significant bullpen help before the trade deadline, perhaps with a particular aim of improving the relief corps’ strikeout numbers.

MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation

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The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.

This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…

Plus, we answer your questions, including…

Check out our past episodes!

The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff.  Check out their Facebook page here!

Braves Walked Away From Jeff Hoffman Deal Due To Physical

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1:50pm: Bowman further reports that the Braves’ offer to Hoffman was a five-year pact valued between $45-48MM total. The idea would have been for Hoffman to get an opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in the season’s first few years before a potential move to the ’pen down the road. The lengthy nature of the pact suggests that part of the aim was to tamp down the annual value of the contract and thus reduce the luxury hit.

1:25pm: Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on Friday, a three-year deal with a $33MM guarantee. Shortly after the Jays announced that signing, it was reported that the Orioles had agreed to give Hoffman $40MM over three years but backed out after flagging a shoulder issue in his physical. The saga continues today, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that the Braves also walked away from a deal with Hoffman.

There are no details on Hoffman’s agreement with Atlanta. It’s unclear if this was before or after the agreement with Baltimore. It’s also not publicly known what sort of financials details were worked out between Atlanta and Hoffman. Bowman doesn’t specifically mention what issue Atlanta found in the physical, though it’s presumably the same shoulder problem that the O’s flagged.

It’s a notable development on a couple of fronts. For fans of the Jays, this will perhaps add to the level of concern that already developed out of the report about the deal with the O’s. All teams have different thresholds for what is or is not a concern during a physical, but the fact that two clubs were scared away from Hoffman will understandably be a bit nerve-wracking for fans of the club he is now a member of.

It bears repeating that the Orioles didn’t want to walk away from Hoffman completely. Per last week’s reporting, Baltimore continued negotiating with Hoffman after nixing the $40MM agreement. That suggests that whatever they found in his shoulder wasn’t a dealbreaker, but rather something that lowered the amount of money they were willing to commit to him. It’s unknown how much the shoulder issue knocked off of their offer, but it presumably dropped below the $33MM figure that Hoffman got from Toronto.

Time will tell if the shoulder becomes a problem for Hoffman during the next three years, but it’s a situation that has precedents. Carlos Correa is the most notable recent example, as he originally had a 13-year, $350MM agreement with the Giants before they flagged an ankle issue in his physical. That led to a 12-year, $315MM agreement with the Mets, though that was also quashed by the ankle issue. That led Correa back to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee with four vesting options that can eventually lead to Correa earning $270MM over ten years. Since then, Correa’s results have been mixed. He got into 135 games in 2o23 with tepid offense, followed by excellent numbers in 2024 but in just 86 games, heading to the injured list due to a right oblique strain and plantar fasciitis in his right foot.

There have been other examples of disagreements about health lately. The Yankees reportedly had a deal in place to acquire Jack Flaherty at last year’s deadline but walked away due to concerns about his back in the medical reports. The Dodgers seemingly had less concern, as they swooped in to get him. Flaherty went on to stay healthy, forming a key part of the club’s rotation down the stretch and through the playoffs as the Dodgers won the World Series.

This Hoffman situation also has some parallels to Toronto’s signing of Kirby Yates a few years ago. Going into 2021, the Jays gave Yates a $5.5MM guarantee with performance bonuses but he required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. In the wake of that surgery, it was reported that Atlanta had walked away from giving Yates a $9MM deal while the Jays also reduced their guarantee from $8.5MM, both due to concerns with the physical.

The Jays reportedly believed that Yates’s upside was worth the risk on that modest investment, which didn’t work out. In this instance, it’s unclear if the concern is as high as it was with Yates, though the investment is far larger. Though as mentioned, the O’s were still willing to make some kind of investment in Hoffman as well, to an unknown degree.

For Atlanta, while the details of their engagement with Hoffman aren’t known, this can perhaps tell us a bit about what’s next for them. If they had an agreement with Hoffman, it was likely somewhere in the $35-45MM range. That suggests both that they have some money to spend and a willingness to use it on upgrading the pitching staff.

Hoffman reportedly got some interest as a starting pitching earlier in the offseason. It’s unknown which role Atlanta had in mind, though they did do the reliever-to-starter conversion thing with Reynaldo López last year. They signed López to a three-year, $30MM deal and then moved him to the rotation for the 2024 season. That has worked out very well so far, as López posted a 1.99 earned run average in his 25 starts last year.

A rotation addition seems to be on the to-do list for Atlanta again this winter. They lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to other clubs via free agency and were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter, though he later re-signed with the Rangers. On the other hand, the bullpen lost A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and others to free agency, while knee surgery is going to possibly keep Joe Jiménez on the IL for the whole 2025 season.

Atlanta has been fairly quiet this winter, mostly making cost-cutting moves. That includes jettisoning Jorge Soler’s contract, non-tendering Ramón Laureano, turning down an option on Travis d’Arnaud and restructuring the deals for López and Aaron Bummer. It’s unclear exactly where they want the payroll to be but RosterResource currently projects it at $201MM, about $22MM below last year’s $223MM Opening Day figure listed at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR also has Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number at $217MM, which is $24MM shy of the $241MM base threshold of the tax.

Atlanta has paid the tax in each of the past two years. Back in December, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the club could pay the tax again in 2025, though without firmly declaring that they would do so. Given the wiggle room they currently have, it’s possible for them to make a notable investment or two while still staying south of the line.

Hoffman could have been a part of their plans, either for the rotation or the bullpen, though they will now have the chance to redirect that money to someone else. The free agent market still features starters like Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and others, as well as relievers including Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and more. The trade market may feature names like Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo as rotation options, while Ryan Pressly and Erick Fedde are some relievers who could be available in trade talks.

Blue Jays Sign Jeff Hoffman

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The Blue Jays made a significant bullpen upgrade on Friday evening, announcing a three-year deal with Jeff Hoffman that guarantees $33MM. The CAA client reportedly receives a $5MM signing bonus and can earn another $6MM in incentives. He’d unlock $500K for reaching each of 60, 70, 80 and 90 innings pitched in all three seasons. He’ll make a $6MM salary next season followed by $11MM annually from 2026-27.

General manager Ross Atkins said in a statement that Hoffman “will get an opportunity to close games for us” (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That suggests they’re planning to keep the right-hander in the late innings. Hoffman had reportedly drawn interest from teams as a starting pitcher.

Hoffman, who turned 32 on Wednesday, returns to the organization that drafted him more than a decade ago. The righty was Toronto’s first-round pick (ninth overall) out of East Carolina in 2014. He was a high-profile starting pitching prospect who landed among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in each of his first three professional seasons. Hoffman didn’t spend long in the Toronto system. One year after the draft, the Jays dealt him to the Rockies as part of the return in the Troy Tulowitzki deadline blockbuster.

The early portion of Hoffman’s major league career was a struggle. Like many young pitchers, he had a tough time at Coors Field. Hoffman had an earned run average north of 6.00 over parts of five seasons with the Rox. Colorado swapped him to the Reds for Robert Stephenson in advance of the 2021 season. Stephenson and Hoffman were each former top prospects whose careers would take off after a move to the bullpen.

For Hoffman, that didn’t materialize right away. He had a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Cincinnati, combining for a 4.28 ERA over 66 appearances. He signed with the Phillies on a minor league deal coming out of Spring Training in 2023. Hoffman had the best two seasons of his career in Philadelphia. He made the big league roster in early May of the first season and turned in 52 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball.

That performance made him a key piece of Rob Thomson’s leverage group heading into 2024. Hoffman posted even better numbers during his second season at Citizens Bank Park. He worked 66 1/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA while striking out more than a third of opposing hitters. Over his tenure with the Phils, Hoffman turned in a 2.28 earned run average with a 33.4% strikeout percentage. He kept his walks to a modest 7.4% clip and held opponents to a .180/.249/.295 slash in 473 plate appearances.

Of the 97 relievers who have logged 100+ innings over the past two seasons, only five (Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates and Tyler Holton) have a lower ERA. Hoffman also ranks sixth in strikeout rate, trailing Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Fernando Cruz, Kirby Yates, and A.J. Puk. He is in the top 10 in swinging strike percentage. The 6’5″ hurler has the stuff to match those results. His fastball sits around 97 MPH on average. Hoffman mixes four pitches and has overpowered hitters with both the heater and his upper-80s slider.

That production earned him a contract commensurate with what most top setup arms have made in recent offseasons. It’s an exact match for what Stephenson, last winter’s breakout free agent reliever, earned from the Angels. Joe Jiménez, Reynaldo López, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Clay Holmes all landed three-year deals that guaranteed between $26MM and $38MM. Jordan Hicks signed for $11MM annually but was able to secure a fourth year from the Giants as he entered his age-27 season.

MLBTR ranked Hoffman as the #2 free agent reliever behind Scott. We predicted a four-year, $44MM deal. While the AAV was accurate, teams evidently were unwilling to go to four years at that salary for what would be his age 32-35 seasons. Hoffman was reportedly hoping to land a deal similar to the three years and $38MM that Holmes received from the Mets. He comes up a little bit shy of that, at least in part because New York is going to give Holmes an opportunity to move to the rotation.

Robert Murray of FanSided reported this evening that Hoffman had been set to sign with the Orioles on a three-year, $40MM contract before Baltimore took issue with his throwing shoulder during the physical examination. Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate. Baltimore has a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. He did miss around two months due to a shoulder impingement early in the ’21 season as a member of the Reds.

The signing is perhaps some evidence of a thaw in what has been a slow-moving reliever market. It’s the second straight day in which one of the top bullpen arms has come off the board, as Baltimore agreed to a $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge last night (after pulling out of the agreement with Hoffman). Scott remains unsigned and should land the most significant reliever contract of the offseason by a decent margin. Carlos Estévez, Yates and David Robertson are among the next group of back-end arms.

It’s Toronto’s biggest free agent move of the offseason. Their only previous signing had been a two-year, $15MM deal to bring Yimi García back to the organization. They also took on nearly $100MM and acquired middle reliever Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade. The Jays had the worst bullpen in the American League last season. They non-tendered Jordan Romano after an injury-plagued season for their former All-Star closer. (Romano signed with Philadelphia as a key replacement for Hoffman.) The trio of new bullpen pickups join holdovers Erik Swanson and Chad Green as potential late-inning options for John Schneider.

According to RosterResource, Toronto’s luxury tax number is up to roughly $239MM. That puts them within a few million of the $241MM base threshold. The Jays narrowly dipped below the CBT line last season. They’d need to be willing to exceed that marker if they’re going to make a notable offensive upgrade beyond Giménez. The outfield is the biggest issue on paper, while the Jays could also look to solidify a third base position that currently features a handful of young, unproven infielders.

Jon Morosi of the MLB Network first reported that the Jays and Hoffman were discussing a multi-year deal. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported the $6MM in bonuses, which Kiley McDaniel of ESPN specified. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus, while The Associated Press had the salary structure.

Image courtesy of Imagn.

Orioles Backed Out Of Agreement With Jeff Hoffman After Flagged Physical

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Jeff Hoffman signed a three-year, $33MM contract with the Blue Jays this evening. The righty nearly landed with a division rival. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Hoffman and the Orioles had agreed to terms on a three-year, $40MM contract earlier this week. According to Murray, Baltimore pulled out of the deal after the physical revealed something related to his throwing shoulder that concerned the organization. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet write that Baltimore continued to pursue Hoffman and made him a revised offer after backing out of the initial terms, but the All-Star reliever turned his attention elsewhere.

Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate on prospective signings or trade acquisitions. The Orioles have a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. The O’s backed out of agreements with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin, respectively, in 2013 and ’14. They restructured their agreement with Yovani Gallardo during the 2015-16 offseason because of concerns about his shoulder. Those situations all predated the hiring of general manager Mike Elias and the franchise’s sale to owner David Rubenstein. This could certainly be coincidental.

Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. Hoffman did miss around two months in 2021 due to a shoulder impingement. He was sidelined between May 27 and July 21 that season. The injury did not require surgery.

Other teams have failed free agent physicals, of course. The most famous instance was when the Giants and Mets each pulled out of agreements with Carlos Correa because of concerns about his ankle during the 2021-22 offseason. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a deadline trade to acquire Jack Flaherty from the Tigers last summer because of concerns about his back. That’s not a direct parallel, as the Yanks had issues with Flaherty’s medical records rather than conducting their own physical.

The Flaherty situation illustrates that different clubs’ medical departments could have diverging opinions on a player’s health. The Dodgers traded for the righty within hours of the Yankees deal falling through. (Flaherty stayed healthy for the stretch run with Los Angeles.) Hoffman’s physical wound up costing him $7MM in guaranteed money, though he can earn up to $6MM back via innings-based incentives. It’s not clear whether his agreement with Baltimore would have included any performance bonuses.

Baltimore quickly pivoted to their next bullpen target. The O’s agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal with righty Andrew Kittredge last night. He’ll join Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez and Keegan Akin in front of closer Félix Bautista, who is returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery.

Jeff Hoffman Reportedly Seeking Deal In Same Range As Clay Holmes’s

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While free agent starting pitchers have done quite well for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t exactly flying off the shelves. To that point, only two relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have signed so far, and both of them joined their new teams to be starting pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was particularly interesting to see Holmes sign as a starter. For one thing, he hasn’t started a game since his rookie season in 2018. What’s more, he has been one of the top relievers in the game over the past four seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 2.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.

Jeff Hoffman is one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 list. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ’pen, but he is reportedly drawing interest as a starting pitcher. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had received “more interest from teams” as a starter. That helps explain why Hoffman seems to have set his sights on a deal in the same range as the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.

It’s not hard to understand why Hoffman would compare himself to Holmes. They’re both right-handed relievers with closing experience, and they’re less than three months apart in age. Then again, while Holmes has a longer track record of success, most metrics suggest Hoffman has been the better pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway through the 2023 campaign. In particular, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in almost every single statistical category, including strikeout rate, walk rate, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all versions of WAR.

That’s precisely why MLBTR ranked Hoffman ahead of Holmes on our Top 50 list, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the former and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Considering that Holmes was able to beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one might have thought Hoffman would be seeking even more – perhaps something closer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.

However, Hoffman and his agents have now had a couple of months to gauge interest on the open market, and one wonders if he’s discovered that teams aren’t valuing him significantly more than they valued Holmes. After all, it doesn’t seem as if the Mets vastly outbid every other suitor for Holmes’s services. Mere hours before he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was still choosing between numerous offers and that he had been in negotiations with several contending teams. Maybe one of those suitors could pivot to Hoffman instead, especially if he’s seeking a similar deal.

The Phillies were one of those contending clubs. They are also the only team that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. Yet, after adding reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re almost certainly out on Hoffman.

Evidently, Hoffman has other suitors, but it’s not yet clear who they are. Other teams that were reportedly in on Holmes include the Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles were interested in Holmes as a starter, but they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, likely filling that hole. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, were interested in Holmes as a reliever, and they have since signed Yimi García. It’s harder to say if that would preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Red Sox, it’s unclear if they wanted Holmes as a starter or a reliever, but it’s worth noting that they have added three starters since they were linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and they already have two potential closers at the back of their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).

Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Jeff Hoffman

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The Phillies “remain interested in” bringing Jeff Hoffman back, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes, seemingly with the idea of keeping Hoffman his familiar relief pitching role rather than using him as a starting pitcher.  Though Hoffman hasn’t worked as a starter since 2021, some clubs have explored the idea of adding the free agent righty to their rotation rather than to their bullpen.

Hoffman’s transition to relief pitching with the Reds in 2021 led to an immediate uptick in production, and his results have only gotten better over the last four seasons.  Despite a solid 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings for Cincinnati in 2022, Hoffman could only find minor league contracts from the Twins and (after a release late in Spring Training) the Phillies, but his two seasons in Philadelphia have seen Hoffman develop into a high-leverage force.  Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 118 2/3 regular-season innings for Philadelphia in 2023-24, and while he also pitched well in the 2023 playoffs, his 2024 postseason was marred by a pair of meltdowns against the Mets in the NLDS.

Hoffman and his agents at CAA undoubtedly took note of the three-year, $38MM deal that Clay Holmes just signed with the Mets, as New York intends to use Holmes as a rotation arm even though Holmes hasn’t started a big-league game since 2018.  The lure of a bigger payday as a starter might influence Hoffman to look more in that direction, though he was already likely to receive a sizable contract as one of the best relievers in the free agent market.  MLBTR projected Hoffman to land a four-year, $44MM deal with the idea that he would be a reliever, as our top 50 free agents ranking was written before the reports surfaced about the possibility of Hoffman becoming a starter.

Even if starting pitching may bring a larger average annual salary, “the Phillies can make competitive offers that come with a promise of playing for a contender,” Gelb notes.  Hoffman is also on the record about how he liked pitching in Philadelphia, and as he enters his age-32 season, it stands to reason that Hoffman might prefer to stick in the relief role and city that brought him the first sustained success of his nine-year MLB career.

Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski first mentioned his team’s interest in reuniting with Hoffman during his end-of-season press conference, with the caveat that the Phils would bring back just one of Hoffman or Carlos Estevez.  “We like them both.  It’s hard for me to imagine that you end up bringing them both back under the circumstances because I would gather they’re both going to get offered long-term, big-dollar contracts, which they’re going to be looking for,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t see us spending that type of money on two relievers in our bullpen, but I’m just not sure at this time.”

Estevez also remains unsigned, with the Yankees known to be one of the teams linked to the former All-Star closer.  Since the Phillies seem focused on adding to the bullpen, it could be they’ll end up prioritizing Estevez if Hoffman indeed winds up delving more into the starting pitching market.  Gelb’s piece didn’t indicate one way or the other if the Phillies also still had interest in Estevez, or if Philadelphia necessarily had more interest in Hoffman over Estevez all things being equal.

Jeff Hoffman Garnering Interest As Starter

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Jeff Hoffman’s breakout as an elite reliever in the Phillies’ bullpen over the past two seasons played a huge role in the team’s success, but now that he’s a free agent it’s possible he’ll sign in a completely different role. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel reported within his ranking of the offseason’s top free agents that some clubs have considered pursuing Hoffman as a starting pitcher. The Athletic’s Matt Gelb backs that up in his own report, further pointing out that Hoffman is represented the same agency (CAA) that represented Reynaldo Lopez during his own switch from the bullpen to the rotation last winter.

Hoffman, 32 in January, has quietly been a dominant force in the Philadelphia bullpen since signing a minor league deal early in the 2023 season. Recency bias might conjure up the unflattering memory of the right-hander’s NLDS meltdown against the Mets, but from 2023-24, Hoffman compiled 118 2/3 innings of 2.28 ERA ball while punching out a gaudy 33.4% of his opponents against a 7.4% walk rate. This postseason’s pair of regrettable outings against the Mets isn’t an ideal final memory, but Hoffman also snapped off six shutout innings of relief with eight strikeouts and no walks during the 2023 NLCS.

Excellent as Hoffman has been in relief, there’s reason to believe he could succeed in a lengthier role. First and foremost, the former No. 8 overall draft pick was a starter in his college days at East Carolina University and began his pro career in a rotation role. He started 11 big league games as recently as 2021 with Cincinnati and didn’t move to a full-time relief role until his 2022 season with the Reds. Hoffman has appeared in 361 professional games (majors and minors combined); 145 of them (40%) have been starts.

Beyond his familiarity with the role, Hoffman still uses a four-pitch repertoire even when working out of the bullpen. Many relievers who were once starters narrow their arsenal down to two pitches when they move to a short relief role. Hoffman still threw four pitches at least 8% of the time in 2024: a four-seamer (39%), slider (40.8%), splitter (12%) and sinker (8.2%). He averaged a fiery 96.6 mph on that four-seamer and 96.7 mph on his sinker. Those numbers would surely go down were Hoffman to begin working five, six and seven innings at a time, but even with reduced life on his fastballs he could still have average or better velocity. The league-average starting pitcher in 2024 sat 94.2 mph with his four-seamer, per Statcast.

Among those four pitches, Statcast has ranked them all as plus offerings over the past two seasons. Hoffman’s slider has easily been the best of the bunch, producing a huge 20.6% swinging-strike rate and limiting opponents to a .160/.201/.215 batting line when finishing off a plate appearance with that offering (dating back to Opening Day 2023). Again, whether he could sustain that level of dominance when facing opponents a second and third time through the order isn’t certain, but Hoffman’s wipeout slider has played an enormous role in his breakout since signing with the Phillies.

There are health and performance risks when taking a reliever and stretching him out. Hoffman hasn’t reached even 100 innings (majors and minors combined) in a season since 2019. Even among the reliever-to-starter experiments that panned out nicely in 2024, no one from the bunch worked what could be considered a full workload.

Garrett Crochet came the closest, compiling 146 innings across 32 starts, but the White Sox didn’t allow him to pitch more than four innings in a start after the calendar flipped to July. The aforementioned Lopez reached 135 2/3 innings but had a pair of IL stints owing to forearm and shoulder inflammation. Angels righty Jose Soriano went from 65 1/3 innings in 2023 to 113 in 2024 but was shut down for the season on Aug. 17 due to arm fatigue. Giants righty Jordan Hicks thrived in the rotation through late May before stumbling to an ERA over 6.00 in the early summer and being dropped back to the ’pen in mid-July. He finished at 109 2/3 innings with a 4.10 ERA. Seth Lugo is perhaps the best recent example of success in this transition. He jumped from 65 innings with the 2022 Mets to 146 innings with the 2023 Padres and 206 innings with this past season’s Royals.

Notably, McDaniel opines that Hoffman is still likelier to sign as a reliever. It’s the role in which he’s dominated over the past two seasons, and while he’s not the No. 1 reliever in this offseason’s free agent class — most publications, including MLBTR, assigned that honor to lefty Tanner Scott — Hoffman has a case to be considered the No. 2 or No. 3 bullpen arm on the open market this winter.

Gelb suggests Hoffman may prefer the relief role, though logically speaking, one would imagine he’d simply take the best offer possible. This is Hoffman’s first real crack at a notable MLB contract. He took home a signing bonus of just over $3MM in the draft but was non-tendered throughout his arbitration years and earned a relatively modest $2.2MM this past season in his final arb season. Even with that draft bonus, Hoffman’s career earnings fall shy of $8MM. He’ll presumably prioritize top dollar, regardless of location or role.

Phillies Notes: Outfield, Hoffman, Coaching Staff

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The Phillies’ season came to a crushing end last night. The NL East champs were bounced by the division rival Mets. It was the second straight year in which their playoff results have taken a step back. Philadelphia went from the 2022 NL pennant to last year’s NLCS appearance to the Division Series.

Matt Gelb of the Athletic looks ahead to the offseason in a piece that’ll be of interest to Philadelphia fans. Gelb writes that Philadelphia is likely to bring in an outfielder via free agency or trade during the offseason. The Phils moved Bryce Harper into first base, leaving them with a primary outfield of Brandon Marsh, Johan Rojas and Nick Castellanos. That’s a relatively weak outfield for a contender.

Castellanos’ .254/.311/.431 slash isn’t enough to make up for his lack of defensive value. It’s the opposite story with Rojas. He’s an elite runner and plus defender in center field but hasn’t provided much at the plate. The second-year player hit .243/.279/.322 across 363 trips. Marsh was Philadelphia’s most productive outfielder, hitting 16 home runs with a .249/.328/.419 batting line. The lefty-hitting Marsh has yet to demonstrate he’s more than a strong-side platoon bat though. He hit .192 in 90 plate appearances against southpaws this season. He’s a career .216/.276/.306 hitter versus lefty pitching.

The Phils acquired Austin Hays in a buy-low deadline pickup. Philadelphia projected Hays as at worst a right-handed platoon partner for Marsh in left field. Hays spent most of his Phillies tenure on the injured list and didn’t produce in limited playing time. He hit .256/.275/.397 with 19 strikeouts and no walks in 80 plate appearances after the trade.

MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz projects Hays for a $6.4MM salary in his final season of arbitration. He’s likely to be non-tendered. The Phils could stick with utility player Weston Wilson as a platoon partner with Marsh. The other outfield spots are areas for potential improvement, though neither is without complications.

Kyle Schwarber blocks Castallenos from getting substantial time at designated hitter. There are still two seasons remaining at $20MM annually on Castellanos’ five-year free agent deal. The $40MM in guarantees is well above his market value. Philadelphia would need to eat a chunk of the contract to facilitate a trade — likely to a team that could play him at DH. They wouldn’t get much back even if they paid the deal down, which could leave the Phils to stick with Castellanos in right.

Upgrading in center field could be even more challenging. This winter’s free agent class is extremely thin. Barring a surprise Cody Bellinger opt-out, the best free agent center fielders available include Harrison Bader and Michael A. Taylor. They’re at best marginal upgrades on Rojas. There aren’t many clear solutions on the trade market either. Leody Taveras and Jose Siri provide similar glove-first profiles. The Cubs could try to offload part of Bellinger’s two-year, $50MM guarantee if he opts in as most expect.

If the Phillies were unable to move Castellanos but wanted a clear outfield upgrade, that opens the possibility of flipping one of their other outfielders. Gelb floats the idea of either Marsh or Rojas becoming an offseason trade candidate. Rojas has five years of club control and is two seasons from arbitration. Marsh is projected for a $3MM salary in his first of three arbitration years.

A Marsh trade would at least open the possibility for the Phils to make a splash in left field. They’d face an uphill battle from teams like the Yankees, Mets and Giants on Juan Soto — though owner John Middleton and Dave Dombrowski’s front office have never shied away from making runs at superstars. Players like Anthony Santander or Teoscar Hernández could be in play if Soto isn’t realistic. The Phillies could theoretically play Marsh in center field if they were to trade Rojas and sign a bigger bat to play left. That’d project as a very weak defensive grouping.

After the outfield, the bullpen is the next-biggest question. Jeff Hoffman and Carlos Estévez are two of the top relievers in the upcoming free agent class. Wednesday was a bitter ending for both pitchers. Hoffman loaded the bases on a single, hit-by-pitch and walk. Estévez entered and surrendered the Francisco Lindor grand slam that proved to be the nail in the coffin. Yet the tough finish doesn’t negate the importance of Hoffman and Estévez down the stretch. The righties were two of the three highest-leverage arms (alongside Matt Strahm) in Rob Thomson’s bullpen.

Even with both pitchers entering their age-32 seasons, they’re on track for significant multi-year deals. MLBTR’s Steve Adams covered Hoffman’s emergence for Front Office subscribers last month, writing that a four-year contract could be on the table. ESPN’s Kiley McDaniel suggested earlier this week that Estévez has a shot at four years in his own right. Even if the relief market isn’t quite that strong, both pitchers have a case for a three-year pact around $10-12MM annually.

Postgame, both pitchers expressed some hope they’d be back with the Phils. “Hopefully. That would be great, but let’s see. You know how it is,” Estévez said of a potential return (via Gelb). Hoffman was a bit more emphatic. “Yeah, that’s all I want,” he told reporters (including Todd Zolecki of MLB.com) about staying in Philly. “But it’s hard to think about right now.”

Major roster decisions will wait for the official start of the offseason in a few weeks. A more immediate question may be on the coaching staff. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale tweeted on Thursday that the Phils are set for evaluation meetings to determine whether to make any coaching changes. The Phillies signed Thomson to a one-year extension last December, so he’s under contract through next season.

From Minor League Deal To Top Reliever In The Upcoming Free Agent Class

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Perhaps you haven't heard this before, but relief pitching is volatile. Reliever performance often fluctuates wildly from year to year. At times, that leads to rapid ascensions from obscurity to stardom for players. Look no further than last year's three-year, $33MM deal for Robert Stephenson with the Angels. He'd been designated for assignment less than a calendar year prior but was so dominant in 42 games with the Rays that the Angels ponied up that weighty three-year deal.

Stephenson is just one of many instances of this, of course. Liam Hendriks had been designated for assignment by four different teams before breaking out with the A's. In fact, Oakland was one of the four teams who'd chosen to DFA him. He went unclaimed on waivers. Drew Pomeranz had been bounced from the Giants' rotation in 2019 and was potentially on the cusp of being cut loose himself when a stretch of just four relief appearances prompted the Brewers to give up a legitimate infield prospect (Mauricio Dubon) to acquire him in a trade. Pomeranz dominated for Milwaukee for two more months and went on to ink a four-year, $34MM deal in free agency.

Reliever fortunes can turn quickly, and the upcoming free agent class offers the latest example. It's always fun to wonder who might be the next Hendriks, Pomeranz or Stephenson -- and in this instance, it's even more fun because the buzz name on the market was traded for one of those very relievers just a few years back.

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