Blue Jays Remove Jeff Hoffman From Closer Role
The defending 2025 AL Champions, mired in a 10-15 start, are shaking up their bullpen. After three blown saves and an early yank against the Angels on April 21st, the Blue Jays (as covered by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com) announced that Jeff Hoffman is out as closer while the team transitions to a closer-by-committee approach. Righties Louis Varland, Tyler Rogers, and Braydon Fisher should be in play for save opportunities. However, Matheson mentions that Varland’s fireman role in the bullpen may preclude him from the ninth in some games.
It’s perhaps an unsurprising development given his early-season performance: an unsightly 7.59 ERA in 10 2/3 innings is hard to stomach from a high-leverage reliever, even for a small sample size. His 6 unintentional walks, 2 HBPs, and a wild pitch underscore his challenge to command the zone and prevent baserunners. However, Hoffman’s stuff remains filthy. His 41.2% strikeout rate is elite. Due to the nature of small sample sizes, relievers’ performances can be extremely volatile, and ERA models like xFIP (1.68) and SIERA (1.93) both think he’s been downright snakebit. Regardless of misfortune, Hoffman’s results have been lacking.
Hoffman put up an excellent run with the Phillies between 2023-2024. Among qualified relievers in that time frame, his 2.28 ERA in 118 2/3 innings was sixth-best in the league. This performance wasn’t a mirage: his 26.0 K-BB% (implying high strikeouts and low walks) and 2.65 SIERA were the fourth and third best marks during that period, respectively. Impressed with the recent body of work, the Blue Jays staked Hoffman to a three-year, $33M deal during the 2024-2025 offseason.
His 2025 was less successful. Hoffman coughed up the most homers he’s ever allowed while pitching exclusively out of the bullpen. His postseason run looked like a return to form, and was quite good on the whole, but Hoffman’s Fall Classic run will likely be most (in)famously remembered for the game-tying home run given up to Miguel Rojas with 1 out in the ninth of Game Seven.
The Blue Jays have some other fantastic options to finish games while their erstwhile closer attempts to figure it out in a lower-leverage setting. Varland has been excellent thus far, boosting his strikeout rate in 2026 by nearly 50% of his career percentage. He seldom walks batters and has yet to have a ball leave the yard this season. He looks very much like last year’s version turned to 11, and should be first-in-line for saves (when available). Varland, in a small sample, has gone 1 for 3 in save opportunities.
Submariner righty Rogers should also be in the mix. While his strikeout numbers are pedestrian, he typically commands the zone well (career 4.5 BB% rate) and is a groundball specialist with a career 57.1 GB% rate. Rogers has had mixed success in the closer role thus far, going 19 for 42 in opportunities. Lesser heralded but still highly effective Fisher could also climb the bullpen pecking order, though he has less experience in higher-leverage situations than Varland and Rogers.
Poll: Should The Blue Jays Make A Closer Change?
The defending American League champions have had a difficult first few weeks. Their 10-14 record has them in fourth place in the AL East. The relief group is a big part of that, as the Jays rank 23rd with a 4.81 bullpen ERA. They’ve blown seven leads, tied with the White Sox for third most in MLB (behind the A’s and Nationals at eight apiece).
The problems have extended to the ninth inning. Closer Jeff Hoffman has been charged with three blown saves, which is tied for the MLB high. That doesn’t include Tuesday’s rough outing against the Angels.
Hoffman entered with a three-run lead in the bottom of the ninth. After striking out Zach Neto, he allowed four consecutive batters to reach. Skipper John Schneider turned to Louis Varland with the bases loaded and a 4-2 lead. Varland promptly got Nolan Schanuel to bounce into a game-ending double play. That technically went down as a hold for Hoffman because he recorded an out and left the game with the lead, but it obviously wasn’t what the Jays wanted from their closer.
After the game, Schneider was noncommittal on sticking with the righty in the ninth. “We’ll reevaluate everything, talk with him, see how he’s doing. He’s going through it obviously a little bit,” Schneider told reporters on Wednesday (links via Shi Davidi of Sportsnet and Jared Greenspan of MLB.com). “We’ll see (about his role).” The skipper noted they’d take advantage of Thursday’s scheduled day off to discuss things with the pitcher.
Hoffman has made 12 appearances on the season. He has allowed at least one run in six of them. The 33-year-old righty has surrendered 11 runs (nine earned) over his first 10 2/3 innings. Hoffman has given up 16 hits, walked six batters, and hit a pair on Tuesday. He has successfully locked down a trio of saves.
The bottom line results have been terrible, but Hoffman ranks near the top of the league in strikeouts. He has fanned 24 of 57 opponents, a monster 42.1% clip. Among pitchers with at least 10 innings, only Mason Miller has a superior strikeout rate. Hoffman’s 21.2% swinging strike percentage is also second behind Miller’s unbelievable 30.3% mark. All four of Hoffman’s pitches have missed bats and his velocity is at usual levels.
There’s clearly some amount of bad luck in Hoffman’s early results. Opponents have hit above .600 when they’ve put the ball in play. If he were coming off a dominant 2025 season, the Jays would surely give him more rope to allow the batted ball variance to even out.
However, his first year in Toronto was up and down. Hoffman recorded 33 saves but ranked second among relievers with 15 home runs allowed. He had a 4.37 earned run average across 68 regular season innings. Hoffman was excellent for the majority of the postseason until allowing the famous Miguel Rojas home run in the ninth inning of World Series Game 7 — his only homer and blown save of the playoffs.
If the Jays move Hoffman out of the ninth, Varland would be the obvious choice to replace him as the closer. Last year’s deadline pickup has begun his ’26 campaign without allowing an earned run through 13 innings. He has fanned 19 hitters against three walks. Varland has been an excellent setup man but has no closing experience. Tuesday’s one-pitch outing was the first save of his MLB career.
Varland has clearly outperformed Hoffman through a few weeks, but naming him the closer would limit Schneider’s flexibility to use him earlier in games. No Toronto pitcher has entered in higher-leverage situations on average than Varland, as the biggest at-bats aren’t always in the ninth inning. Hoffman is third in that regard, also behind the already optioned Brendon Little. The Jays also have Tyler Rogers and Braydon Fisher in key late-game roles.
How should the Jays proceed?
How should the Blue Jays approach the ninth inning?
Blue Jays Interested In Bo Bichette Reunion, Rotation Upgrades
Blue Jays president Mark Shapiro and general manager Ross Atkins met with the media this week to discuss various topics on the heels of the club’s 2025 season, which was mostly sweet but ended bitterly. Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet rounded up some of the pertinent details. Most notably, the Jays are interested in reuniting with infielder Bo Bichette and are also on the hunt for pitching. Some trade talks involving starting pitching have already taken place.
Neither detail is a big surprise. The Blue Jays are the only team Bichette has ever known. He has expressed a willingness to return and continue playing alongside Vladimir Guerrero Jr., as the two have done for years. The Jays would surely love to have Bichette back.
The Jays were able to get through the ALDS and ALCS without Bichette, running out an alignment that usually featured Guerrero at first and Andrés Giménez at short, while Ernie Clement, Addison Barger and Isiah Kiner-Falefa split the second and third base duties.
They could run most of that crew back, though Kiner-Falefa is now a free agent. Davis Schneider could factor in at second base at times. But the Jays are surely a better team with Bichette in the lineup, especially when he’s fully healthy. He has a career .294/.337/.469 batting line and had an even better .311/.357/.483 showing in 2025.
Now that Bichette is a free agent, other clubs will come calling. Teams like the Giants, Tigers, Yankees, Dodgers, Red Sox and Mets are logical landing spots, among others. MLBTR predicted Bichette to land an eight-year, $208MM contract. The Jays have never given that kind of money to a free agent, though they did more than double that on Guerrero’s $500MM extension. With the recent revenue generated from the club’s World Series run, perhaps they make an aggressive push to bring Bichette back.
Even if the Jays do have the money to get it done, there will be the question of positioning. Bichette has largely been a shortstop in his career. As he was shelved with a knee injury late in 2025, Giménez took over that spot. Bichette got healthy enough to be activated for the World Series but was clearly not 100%. The Jays kept him at second base and put him in the designated hitter spot a few times when George Springer was hurt.
Bichette has never been a great defensive shortstop but Giménez seems to be strong there, despite being mostly a second baseman in recent years. While Bichette was willing to play second in the World Series and while still hurt, would he be willing to make a permanent move to that spot? If he would like to stick at shortstop for a few more years, would the Jays accommodate him? If not, how much would that impact his signing decision?
The non-Bichette part of the free agent market includes players such as Alex Bregman, Eugenio Suárez, Gleyber Torres, Ha-Seong Kim and others. Guys like Brendan Donovan, Brandon Lowe, Alec Bohm, CJ Abrams, Josh Jung, Nolan Gorman and others might be available in trade.
There’s also Japanese infielder Munetaka Murakami, with Nicholson-Smith listing the Jays and Yankees as two teams linked to him. He is to be posted today, so his free agency will be resolved in the next 45 days.
Murakami wouldn’t be a perfect fit for the Blue Jays. He does have massive power from the left side, something that would work well in their lineup. However, his third base defense is considered poor, with many suspecting that he will quickly wind up at first base in the majors. With Guerrero signed at first base for the next 14 years and guys like Springer and Anthony Santander lined up for DH time, Murakami would have to be shoehorned in a bit.
If the Jays do think he can hack it at third, that would bump Clement to second and Barger to the outfield. That is something that could work but it wouldn’t really leave room for Bichette, barring a trade of some kind. The Yankees also have kind of an awkward fit with Ryan McMahon at third, Ben Rice at first and Giancarlo Stanton the DH, though perhaps they could find a way to balance things by having Rice behind the plate.
Turning to Toronto’s pitching, they just got a huge boost when Shane Bieber surprisingly triggered his player option. He can now be slotted into the 2026 rotation alongside Kevin Gausman and Trey Yesavage. The Jays should also have José Berríos back in the mix. He finished 2025 on the injured list but Atkins said he’s in line for a normal offseason, per Nicholson-Smith.
Guys like Eric Lauer, Bowden Francis, Adam Macko, Lázaro Estrada and Easton Lucas could compete for the #5 spot but the Jays will look at add someone else. In that scenario, Lauer would come into camp as the #6 guy, which was sometimes the case in 2025. He could work a long relief role when everyone is healthy and jump into the rotation as injuries pop up. Everyone else in that cluster of depth arms is optionable and could be in Triple-A. Guys like Angel Bastardo, Ricky Tiedemann and Jake Bloss missed all or most of 2025 while injured and could work into the mix when healthy.
The free agent market features starters like Dylan Cease, Framber Valdez, Tatsuya Imai, Ranger Suárez and plenty of others. Guys like MacKenzie Gore, Joe Ryan, Mitch Keller and others should be available on the trade block.
In Nicholson-Smith’s column, Shapiro didn’t give a clear answer about the 2026 payroll but he praised the support the club has received from ownership and said “I don’t see that support going backwards at all.” That’s logical because, as mentioned, the club just raked in a bunch of money from their extended playoff run.
RosterResource projects the club for a $235MM payroll next year. That’s more than $20MM shy of the $258MM they spent in 2025, per RR. If payroll stays steady, that gives the Jays some room to make a notable move, though it would obviously be easier if the budget goes up. Signing both Bichette and a notable starting pitcher, for instance, would require more than $20MM annually.
In the bullpen, there are dozens of potential players they could target, including free agents and trade candidates. They could even go after closers, as Atkins was noncommittal about Jeff Hoffman staying in that role next year, per Keegan Matheson of MLB.com. “The great thing about Jeff is he’s not married to that,” Atkins said. “I think he would be open to anything that makes us better.”
The Jays signed Hoffman to a three-year, $33MM deal last offseason. He saved 33 games for the Jays this year, plus two more in the playoffs, but in uneven fashion. His strikeout rate was good but he allowed 4.37 earned runs per nine, thanks to allowing 15 home runs on the year, more than in his previous three years combined. As Jays fans well know, or maybe have blocked out, he allowed a game-tying home run to Dodgers #9 hitter Miguel Rojas in the top of the ninth of Game Seven of the World Series.
Home run spikes like that can be fluky. A measure like SIERA, which controls for such things, gave Hoffman a 3.21 mark this year. Still, it’s understandable that the Jays would at least consider adding an established closer and bumping Hoffman into a setup role. The free agent market features guys with closing experience like Edwin Díaz, Robert Suarez, Pete Fairbanks and Devin Williams. Depending on the final payroll, the Jays will have to weigh those pursuits against their other targets.
As for Shapiro himself, his contract only ran through the 2025 season but it would be a shock if he weren’t kept around after such a successful season. He previously hinted that he and the club would likely work out a new deal and he gave similar comments this week. Per Nicholson-Smith, he says he and the team agreed to table extension talks during the postseason run but will “likely work something out soon.”
The coaching staff will also likely be coming back, for the most part. Per Nicholson-Smith, Atkins said there would be no “proactive subtractions,” which seems to be GM speak to indicate no one is getting fired. Bench coach Don Mattingly is walking away and it’s always possible that someone on staff gets offered a promotion with another club, but it’s notable that the Jays plan on keeping the group together as much as they can.
Photo courtesy of John E. Sokolowski, Imagn Images
Dave Dombrowski Discusses Phillies’ Offseason Talks With Jeff Hoffman
Reports emerged back in December that the Phillies had interest in re-signing free agent reliever Jeff Hoffman, before Hoffman eventually landed with the Blue Jays on a three-year, $33MM contract in early January. Phils president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski confirmed the Philadelphia Inquirer’s Scott Lauber and other reporters this week that the club indeed had interest in a reunion with the All-Star, and “very aggressively” made an offer seemingly in range of Toronto’s offer early in the season.
“I can’t tell you that the number he ended up signing for was substantially different than the one that we ended up offering him,” Dombrowski said. “But he wasn’t prepared to take that at that time. [Hoffman’s agents] just thought they were going to get much more.”
Hoffman technically did land more in two other offers — a three-year, $40MM agreement with the Orioles, and then a five-year deal with the Braves in the $45MM-48MM range that would’ve brought the righty more in overall value, if not average annual value. However, Baltimore and Atlanta both walked away from those deals due to misgivings over Hoffman’s medicals. The Braves’ issue wasn’t made public, but the Orioles had a concern over Hoffman’s right shoulder. Notably, the O’s weren’t troubled enough to abandon their pursuit of Hoffman entirely, and made a new offer after taking their $40MM offer off the table.
The Athletic’s Matt Gelb paints a different picture of Philadelphia’s talks with Hoffman, as sources tell Gelb that the Phillies told agents that they were looking for relievers who would sign for one-year contracts. This would naturally run entirely counter to Dombrowski’s claim of an offer in the three-year, $33MM range, and Gelb isn’t sure if the Phillies presented Hoffman with a formal offer whatsoever. While the team did keep checking in Hoffman in the first month of the offseason, Gelb and Lauber writes that the Phillies stopped pursuing Hoffman once Jordan Romano signed in early December.
Romano, indeed, signed a one-year deal, worth $8.5MM. It was essentially an unofficial swap of relievers between the Phillies and Jays, though while Hoffman had a strong 2024 season, Romano threw only 9 1/3 innings due to elbow problems that required an arthroscopic surgery. The Blue Jays chose to non-tender Romano in the wake of this lost year, moving on from their former closer rather than pay him a projected $7.75MM in arbitration.
Dombrowski indicated at the end of last season and again this week that Philadelphia would only be re-signing one at most of Hoffman and Carlos Estevez, and the team ended up going with Romano over either of the free agent duo. Unsurprisingly, Dombrowski framed the decision as a baseball move, rather than anything related to salaries or contractual demands.
“We just moved off [Hoffman] and did Romano because we thought [Orion] Kerkering was ready to step up and, I don’t want to say take on more because his role has been important, but pitch more at the back and high leverage,” Dombrowski said.
While we’re only a month into the 2025 season, the early returns on the Phillies’ decision haven’t been promising. Philadelphia is near the bottom of the league in bullpen ERA, even despite superb numbers posted by closer Jose Alvarado and set-up man Matt Strahm. Alvarado has quickly assumed closer duties since Romano has struggled to a 13.50 ERA in his first 9 1/3 innings as a Phillie, and Kerkering also has a 5.79 ERA in 9 1/3 frames of work this year. Since we’re still dealing with small sample sizes here, it is worth noting that most of Kerkering’s damage took place in two rough outings this past week, though Romano has already allowed multiple runs over four of his outings.
Hoffman, meanwhile, has excelled in the first full-time closing assignment of his 10 MLB seasons. The right-hander is a perfect 6-for-6 in save changes and has a 1.35 ERA over 13 1/3 innings for Toronto, with an eye-opening 39.6% strikeout rate and 2.1% walk rate. Even with the caveats of a 92.1% strand rate and a .259 BABIP, Hoffman’s 1.16 SIERA is even lower than his already incredible ERA, further enhancing just how dominant Hoffman has been this year.
Should he keep pitching at anywhere near this level, Hoffman’s performance could lead to some second-guessing in Baltimore, Atlanta, and Philadelphia. Turning to the Phillies in particular, Lauber feels the team will again find itself having to acquire some significant bullpen help before the trade deadline, perhaps with a particular aim of improving the relief corps’ strikeout numbers.
MLBTR Podcast: The Jeff Hoffman Situation, Justin Verlander, And The Marlins’ Rotation
The latest episode of the MLB Trade Rumors Podcast is now live on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, and wherever you get your podcasts! Make sure you subscribe as well! You can also use the player at this link to listen, if you don’t use Spotify or Apple for podcasts.
This week, host Darragh McDonald is joined by Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors to discuss…
- Jeff Hoffman signing with the Blue Jays after his agreements with the Orioles and the Braves fell apart, both due to concerns relating to his physical (2:05)
- The Giants signing Justin Verlander (12:00)
- The Marlins lose Braxton Garrett for the year (15:55)
- The Mariners signing Donovan Solano (26:10)
Plus, we answer your questions, including…
- With the Reds getting a new TV deal, can they sign Anthony Santander or Jurickson Profar? (31:30)
- What do you make of the Nationals‘ offseason so far? (37:55)
- What would a Kyle Tucker extension look like for the Cubs? (44:30)
Check out our past episodes!
- Brent Rooker’s Extension, Gavin Lux, And Catching Up On The Holiday Transactions – listen here
- Kyle Tucker To The Cubs, And Trades For Devin Williams And Jeffrey Springs – listen here
- Winter Meetings Recap – listen here
The podcast intro and outro song “So Long” is provided courtesy of the band Showoff. Check out their Facebook page here!
Braves Walked Away From Jeff Hoffman Deal Due To Physical
1:50pm: Bowman further reports that the Braves’ offer to Hoffman was a five-year pact valued between $45-48MM total. The idea would have been for Hoffman to get an opportunity to pitch out of the rotation in the season’s first few years before a potential move to the ‘pen down the road. The lengthy nature of the pact suggests that part of the aim was to tamp down the annual value of the contract and thus reduce the luxury hit.
1:25pm: Right-hander Jeff Hoffman signed with the Blue Jays on Friday, a three-year deal with a $33MM guarantee. Shortly after the Jays announced that signing, it was reported that the Orioles had agreed to give Hoffman $40MM over three years but backed out after flagging a shoulder issue in his physical. The saga continues today, as Mark Bowman of MLB.com reports that the Braves also walked away from a deal with Hoffman.
There are no details on Hoffman’s agreement with Atlanta. It’s unclear if this was before or after the agreement with Baltimore. It’s also not publicly known what sort of financials details were worked out between Atlanta and Hoffman. Bowman doesn’t specifically mention what issue Atlanta found in the physical, though it’s presumably the same shoulder problem that the O’s flagged.
It’s a notable development on a couple of fronts. For fans of the Jays, this will perhaps add to the level of concern that already developed out of the report about the deal with the O’s. All teams have different thresholds for what is or is not a concern during a physical, but the fact that two clubs were scared away from Hoffman will understandably be a bit nerve-wracking for fans of the club he is now a member of.
It bears repeating that the Orioles didn’t want to walk away from Hoffman completely. Per last week’s reporting, Baltimore continued negotiating with Hoffman after nixing the $40MM agreement. That suggests that whatever they found in his shoulder wasn’t a dealbreaker, but rather something that lowered the amount of money they were willing to commit to him. It’s unknown how much the shoulder issue knocked off of their offer, but it presumably dropped below the $33MM figure that Hoffman got from Toronto.
Time will tell if the shoulder becomes a problem for Hoffman during the next three years, but it’s a situation that has precedents. Carlos Correa is the most notable recent example, as he originally had a 13-year, $350MM agreement with the Giants before they flagged an ankle issue in his physical. That led to a 12-year, $315MM agreement with the Mets, though that was also quashed by the ankle issue. That led Correa back to the Twins on a six-year, $200MM guarantee with four vesting options that can eventually lead to Correa earning $270MM over ten years. Since then, Correa’s results have been mixed. He got into 135 games in 2o23 with tepid offense, followed by excellent numbers in 2024 but in just 86 games, heading to the injured list due to a right oblique strain and plantar fasciitis in his right foot.
There have been other examples of disagreements about health lately. The Yankees reportedly had a deal in place to acquire Jack Flaherty at last year’s deadline but walked away due to concerns about his back in the medical reports. The Dodgers seemingly had less concern, as they swooped in to get him. Flaherty went on to stay healthy, forming a key part of the club’s rotation down the stretch and through the playoffs as the Dodgers won the World Series.
This Hoffman situation also has some parallels to Toronto’s signing of Kirby Yates a few years ago. Going into 2021, the Jays gave Yates a $5.5MM guarantee with performance bonuses but he required Tommy John surgery and missed the entire season. In the wake of that surgery, it was reported that Atlanta had walked away from giving Yates a $9MM deal while the Jays also reduced their guarantee from $8.5MM, both due to concerns with the physical.
The Jays reportedly believed that Yates’s upside was worth the risk on that modest investment, which didn’t work out. In this instance, it’s unclear if the concern is as high as it was with Yates, though the investment is far larger. Though as mentioned, the O’s were still willing to make some kind of investment in Hoffman as well, to an unknown degree.
For Atlanta, while the details of their engagement with Hoffman aren’t known, this can perhaps tell us a bit about what’s next for them. If they had an agreement with Hoffman, it was likely somewhere in the $35-45MM range. That suggests both that they have some money to spend and a willingness to use it on upgrading the pitching staff.
Hoffman reportedly got some interest as a starting pitching earlier in the offseason. It’s unknown which role Atlanta had in mind, though they did do the reliever-to-starter conversion thing with Reynaldo López last year. They signed López to a three-year, $30MM deal and then moved him to the rotation for the 2024 season. That has worked out very well so far, as López posted a 1.99 earned run average in his 25 starts last year.
A rotation addition seems to be on the to-do list for Atlanta again this winter. They lost Max Fried and Charlie Morton to other clubs via free agency and were connected to Nathan Eovaldi earlier this winter, though he later re-signed with the Rangers. On the other hand, the bullpen lost A.J. Minter, Jesse Chavez and others to free agency, while knee surgery is going to possibly keep Joe Jiménez on the IL for the whole 2025 season.
Atlanta has been fairly quiet this winter, mostly making cost-cutting moves. That includes jettisoning Jorge Soler‘s contract, non-tendering Ramón Laureano, turning down an option on Travis d’Arnaud and restructuring the deals for López and Aaron Bummer. It’s unclear exactly where they want the payroll to be but RosterResource currently projects it at $201MM, about $22MM below last year’s $223MM Opening Day figure listed at Cot’s Baseball Contracts. RR also has Atlanta’s competitive balance tax number at $217MM, which is $24MM shy of the $241MM base threshold of the tax.
Atlanta has paid the tax in each of the past two years. Back in December, president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the club could pay the tax again in 2025, though without firmly declaring that they would do so. Given the wiggle room they currently have, it’s possible for them to make a notable investment or two while still staying south of the line.
Hoffman could have been a part of their plans, either for the rotation or the bullpen, though they will now have the chance to redirect that money to someone else. The free agent market still features starters like Flaherty, Nick Pivetta and others, as well as relievers including Tanner Scott, Kenley Jansen, David Robertson and more. The trade market may feature names like Dylan Cease and Luis Castillo as rotation options, while Ryan Pressly and Erick Fedde are some relievers who could be available in trade talks.
Blue Jays Sign Jeff Hoffman
The Blue Jays made a significant bullpen upgrade on Friday evening, announcing a three-year deal with Jeff Hoffman that guarantees $33MM. The CAA client reportedly receives a $5MM signing bonus and can earn another $6MM in incentives. He’d unlock $500K for reaching each of 60, 70, 80 and 90 innings pitched in all three seasons. He’ll make a $6MM salary next season followed by $11MM annually from 2026-27.
General manager Ross Atkins said in a statement that Hoffman “will get an opportunity to close games for us” (relayed by Keegan Matheson of MLB.com). That suggests they’re planning to keep the right-hander in the late innings. Hoffman had reportedly drawn interest from teams as a starting pitcher.
Hoffman, who turned 32 on Wednesday, returns to the organization that drafted him more than a decade ago. The righty was Toronto’s first-round pick (ninth overall) out of East Carolina in 2014. He was a high-profile starting pitching prospect who landed among Baseball America’s Top 100 prospects in each of his first three professional seasons. Hoffman didn’t spend long in the Toronto system. One year after the draft, the Jays dealt him to the Rockies as part of the return in the Troy Tulowitzki deadline blockbuster.
The early portion of Hoffman’s major league career was a struggle. Like many young pitchers, he had a tough time at Coors Field. Hoffman had an earned run average north of 6.00 over parts of five seasons with the Rox. Colorado swapped him to the Reds for Robert Stephenson in advance of the 2021 season. Stephenson and Hoffman were each former top prospects whose careers would take off after a move to the bullpen.
For Hoffman, that didn’t materialize right away. He had a pair of decent but unspectacular seasons in Cincinnati, combining for a 4.28 ERA over 66 appearances. He signed with the Phillies on a minor league deal coming out of Spring Training in 2023. Hoffman had the best two seasons of his career in Philadelphia. He made the big league roster in early May of the first season and turned in 52 1/3 innings of 2.41 ERA ball.
That performance made him a key piece of Rob Thomson’s leverage group heading into 2024. Hoffman posted even better numbers during his second season at Citizens Bank Park. He worked 66 1/3 innings with a 2.17 ERA while striking out more than a third of opposing hitters. Over his tenure with the Phils, Hoffman turned in a 2.28 earned run average with a 33.4% strikeout percentage. He kept his walks to a modest 7.4% clip and held opponents to a .180/.249/.295 slash in 473 plate appearances.
Of the 97 relievers who have logged 100+ innings over the past two seasons, only five (Emmanuel Clase, Tanner Scott, Ryan Helsley, Kirby Yates and Tyler Holton) have a lower ERA. Hoffman also ranks sixth in strikeout rate, trailing Aroldis Chapman, Josh Hader, Fernando Cruz, Kirby Yates, and A.J. Puk. He is in the top 10 in swinging strike percentage. The 6’5″ hurler has the stuff to match those results. His fastball sits around 97 MPH on average. Hoffman mixes four pitches and has overpowered hitters with both the heater and his upper-80s slider.
That production earned him a contract commensurate with what most top setup arms have made in recent offseasons. It’s an exact match for what Stephenson, last winter’s breakout free agent reliever, earned from the Angels. Joe Jiménez, Reynaldo López, Rafael Montero, Taylor Rogers and Clay Holmes all landed three-year deals that guaranteed between $26MM and $38MM. Jordan Hicks signed for $11MM annually but was able to secure a fourth year from the Giants as he entered his age-27 season.
MLBTR ranked Hoffman as the #2 free agent reliever behind Scott. We predicted a four-year, $44MM deal. While the AAV was accurate, teams evidently were unwilling to go to four years at that salary for what would be his age 32-35 seasons. Hoffman was reportedly hoping to land a deal similar to the three years and $38MM that Holmes received from the Mets. He comes up a little bit shy of that, at least in part because New York is going to give Holmes an opportunity to move to the rotation.
Robert Murray of FanSided reported this evening that Hoffman had been set to sign with the Orioles on a three-year, $40MM contract before Baltimore took issue with his throwing shoulder during the physical examination. Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate. Baltimore has a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. He did miss around two months due to a shoulder impingement early in the ’21 season as a member of the Reds.
The signing is perhaps some evidence of a thaw in what has been a slow-moving reliever market. It’s the second straight day in which one of the top bullpen arms has come off the board, as Baltimore agreed to a $10MM deal with Andrew Kittredge last night (after pulling out of the agreement with Hoffman). Scott remains unsigned and should land the most significant reliever contract of the offseason by a decent margin. Carlos Estévez, Yates and David Robertson are among the next group of back-end arms.
It’s Toronto’s biggest free agent move of the offseason. Their only previous signing had been a two-year, $15MM deal to bring Yimi García back to the organization. They also took on nearly $100MM and acquired middle reliever Nick Sandlin in the Andrés Giménez trade. The Jays had the worst bullpen in the American League last season. They non-tendered Jordan Romano after an injury-plagued season for their former All-Star closer. (Romano signed with Philadelphia as a key replacement for Hoffman.) The trio of new bullpen pickups join holdovers Erik Swanson and Chad Green as potential late-inning options for John Schneider.
According to RosterResource, Toronto’s luxury tax number is up to roughly $239MM. That puts them within a few million of the $241MM base threshold. The Jays narrowly dipped below the CBT line last season. They’d need to be willing to exceed that marker if they’re going to make a notable offensive upgrade beyond Giménez. The outfield is the biggest issue on paper, while the Jays could also look to solidify a third base position that currently features a handful of young, unproven infielders.
Jon Morosi of the MLB Network first reported that the Jays and Hoffman were discussing a multi-year deal. FanSided’s Robert Murray reported the $6MM in bonuses, which Kiley McDaniel of ESPN specified. USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reported the signing bonus, while The Associated Press had the salary structure.
Image courtesy of Imagn.
Orioles Backed Out Of Agreement With Jeff Hoffman After Flagged Physical
Jeff Hoffman signed a three-year, $33MM contract with the Blue Jays this evening. The righty nearly landed with a division rival. Robert Murray of FanSided reports that Hoffman and the Orioles had agreed to terms on a three-year, $40MM contract earlier this week. According to Murray, Baltimore pulled out of the deal after the physical revealed something related to his throwing shoulder that concerned the organization. Shi Davidi and Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet write that Baltimore continued to pursue Hoffman and made him a revised offer after backing out of the initial terms, but the All-Star reliever turned his attention elsewhere.
Teams have different standards for the injury risk that they’re willing to tolerate on prospective signings or trade acquisitions. The Orioles have a reputation for being particularly attentive to the physical. The O’s backed out of agreements with Grant Balfour and Tyler Colvin, respectively, in 2013 and ’14. They restructured their agreement with Yovani Gallardo during the 2015-16 offseason because of concerns about his shoulder. Those situations all predated the hiring of general manager Mike Elias and the franchise’s sale to owner David Rubenstein. This could certainly be coincidental.
Hoffman has not spent any time on the injured list over the last two years. He missed a good portion of the second half of 2022 because of a forearm issue. Hoffman did miss around two months in 2021 due to a shoulder impingement. He was sidelined between May 27 and July 21 that season. The injury did not require surgery.
Other teams have failed free agent physicals, of course. The most famous instance was when the Giants and Mets each pulled out of agreements with Carlos Correa because of concerns about his ankle during the 2021-22 offseason. The Yankees reportedly pulled out of a deadline trade to acquire Jack Flaherty from the Tigers last summer because of concerns about his back. That’s not a direct parallel, as the Yanks had issues with Flaherty’s medical records rather than conducting their own physical.
The Flaherty situation illustrates that different clubs’ medical departments could have diverging opinions on a player’s health. The Dodgers traded for the righty within hours of the Yankees deal falling through. (Flaherty stayed healthy for the stretch run with Los Angeles.) Hoffman’s physical wound up costing him $7MM in guaranteed money, though he can earn up to $6MM back via innings-based incentives. It’s not clear whether his agreement with Baltimore would have included any performance bonuses.
Baltimore quickly pivoted to their next bullpen target. The O’s agreed to a one-year, $10MM deal with righty Andrew Kittredge last night. He’ll join Yennier Cano, Seranthony Domínguez and Keegan Akin in front of closer Félix Bautista, who is returning from 2023 Tommy John surgery.
Jeff Hoffman Reportedly Seeking Deal In Same Range As Clay Holmes’s
While free agent starting pitchers have done quite well for themselves this winter, free agent relievers aren’t exactly flying off the shelves. To that point, only two relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agents list have signed so far, and both of them joined their new teams to be starting pitchers: Clay Holmes and Michael Soroka. It was particularly interesting to see Holmes sign as a starter. For one thing, he hasn’t started a game since his rookie season in 2018. What’s more, he has been one of the top relievers in the game over the past four seasons, pitching to a 3.05 ERA and 2.83 SIERA with 74 saves in 264 appearances. He was an All-Star in 2022 and ’24.
Jeff Hoffman is one of the aforementioned unsigned relievers from MLBTR’s Top 50 list. Like Holmes, he’s coming off an All-Star season out of the ‘pen, but he is reportedly drawing interest as a starting pitcher. Indeed, ESPN’s Jeff Passan reported in mid-December that Hoffman had received “more interest from teams” as a starter. That helps explain why Hoffman seems to have set his sights on a deal in the same range as the three-year, $38MM contract Holmes landed from the Mets, according to Matt Gelb of The Athletic.
It’s not hard to understand why Hoffman would compare himself to Holmes. They’re both right-handed relievers with closing experience, and they’re less than three months apart in age. Then again, while Holmes has a longer track record of success, most metrics suggest Hoffman has been the better pitcher since he broke out as a high-leverage reliever partway through the 2023 campaign. In particular, he’s coming off a stronger 2024 season in almost every single statistical category, including strikeout rate, walk rate, innings pitched, ERA, SIERA, and all versions of WAR.
That’s precisely why MLBTR ranked Hoffman ahead of Holmes on our Top 50 list, predicting a four-year, $44MM contract for the former and a three-year, $30MM deal for the latter. Considering that Holmes was able to beat his predicted contract by $8MM, one might have thought Hoffman would be seeking even more – perhaps something closer to the four-year, $56MM deal we initially predicted for fellow free agent reliever Tanner Scott.
However, Hoffman and his agents have now had a couple of months to gauge interest on the open market, and one wonders if he’s discovered that teams aren’t valuing him significantly more than they valued Holmes. After all, it doesn’t seem as if the Mets vastly outbid every other suitor for Holmes’s services. Mere hours before he signed, Jayson Stark of The Athletic reported that Holmes was still choosing between numerous offers and that he had been in negotiations with several contending teams. Maybe one of those suitors could pivot to Hoffman instead, especially if he’s seeking a similar deal.
The Phillies were one of those contending clubs. They are also the only team that has been formally linked to Hoffman this offseason. Yet, after adding reliever Jordan Romano, starter Jesús Luzardo, and swingman Joe Ross, they’re almost certainly out on Hoffman.
Evidently, Hoffman has other suitors, but it’s not yet clear who they are. Other teams that were reportedly in on Holmes include the Orioles, Red Sox, and Blue Jays. The Orioles were interested in Holmes as a starter, but they’ve since signed Tomoyuki Sugano, likely filling that hole. The Blue Jays, meanwhile, were interested in Holmes as a reliever, and they have since signed Yimi García. It’s harder to say if that would preclude them from pursuing Hoffman. As for the Red Sox, it’s unclear if they wanted Holmes as a starter or a reliever, but it’s worth noting that they have added three starters since they were linked to Holmes (Garrett Crochet, Walker Buehler, and Patrick Sandoval), and they already have two potential closers at the back of their bullpen (Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman).
Phillies Interested In Re-Signing Jeff Hoffman
The Phillies “remain interested in” bringing Jeff Hoffman back, The Athletic’s Matt Gelb writes, seemingly with the idea of keeping Hoffman his familiar relief pitching role rather than using him as a starting pitcher. Though Hoffman hasn’t worked as a starter since 2021, some clubs have explored the idea of adding the free agent righty to their rotation rather than to their bullpen.
Hoffman’s transition to relief pitching with the Reds in 2021 led to an immediate uptick in production, and his results have only gotten better over the last four seasons. Despite a solid 3.83 ERA in 44 2/3 innings for Cincinnati in 2022, Hoffman could only find minor league contracts from the Twins and (after a release late in Spring Training) the Phillies, but his two seasons in Philadelphia have seen Hoffman develop into a high-leverage force. Hoffman has a 2.28 ERA, 33.4% strikeout rate, and 7.4% walk rate over 118 2/3 regular-season innings for Philadelphia in 2023-24, and while he also pitched well in the 2023 playoffs, his 2024 postseason was marred by a pair of meltdowns against the Mets in the NLDS.
Hoffman and his agents at CAA undoubtedly took note of the three-year, $38MM deal that Clay Holmes just signed with the Mets, as New York intends to use Holmes as a rotation arm even though Holmes hasn’t started a big-league game since 2018. The lure of a bigger payday as a starter might influence Hoffman to look more in that direction, though he was already likely to receive a sizable contract as one of the best relievers in the free agent market. MLBTR projected Hoffman to land a four-year, $44MM deal with the idea that he would be a reliever, as our top 50 free agents ranking was written before the reports surfaced about the possibility of Hoffman becoming a starter.
Even if starting pitching may bring a larger average annual salary, “the Phillies can make competitive offers that come with a promise of playing for a contender,” Gelb notes. Hoffman is also on the record about how he liked pitching in Philadelphia, and as he enters his age-32 season, it stands to reason that Hoffman might prefer to stick in the relief role and city that brought him the first sustained success of his nine-year MLB career.
Phillies president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski first mentioned his team’s interest in reuniting with Hoffman during his end-of-season press conference, with the caveat that the Phils would bring back just one of Hoffman or Carlos Estevez. “We like them both. It’s hard for me to imagine that you end up bringing them both back under the circumstances because I would gather they’re both going to get offered long-term, big-dollar contracts, which they’re going to be looking for,” Dombrowski said. “I don’t see us spending that type of money on two relievers in our bullpen, but I’m just not sure at this time.”
Estevez also remains unsigned, with the Yankees known to be one of the teams linked to the former All-Star closer. Since the Phillies seem focused on adding to the bullpen, it could be they’ll end up prioritizing Estevez if Hoffman indeed winds up delving more into the starting pitching market. Gelb’s piece didn’t indicate one way or the other if the Phillies also still had interest in Estevez, or if Philadelphia necessarily had more interest in Hoffman over Estevez all things being equal.