Trade Market For Shortstops
Last year’s trade market was quiet on the shortstop front, with Jose Iglesias and John McDonald the only MLB shortstops to change hands. And the latter not only was dealt in August, but never saw time at short for his new club.
That could change this year, as several clubs could stand to upgrade, including the Tigers, Indians, Mariners, Brewers, Reds, Marlins, and Mets. (Of course, some of those teams seem unlikely to make a significant addition, for various reasons.) The Dodgers and Cardinals could potentially shift their current top options off the position if the right opportunity presented itself. The Orioles and Athletics have also received less-than-optimal production, at least from the offensive side, though they appear more likely to count on improvements from their incumbents while making additions elsewhere. Meanwhile, the Nationals (and perhaps some of the above-noted clubs) are interested in adding younger shortstop options to their organization.
For teams looking at the position, there are multiple potentially useful possibilities:
Starters
Alexei Ramirez (White Sox), Asdrubal Cabrera (Indians), Jimmy Rollins (Phillies), Elvis Andrus (Rangers), Starlin Castro (Cubs), Troy Tulowitzki (Rockies), Stephen Drew (Red Sox), Chris Owings (D’backs), Yunel Escobar (Rays)
- Ramirez has cooled significantly after a hot start, but that leaves his overall offensive line (.282.317/.402 with eight home runs and 14 steals) at roughly the same level as it was during his career peak in 2010-11. He has always been a productive defender. Ramirez is playing out the year on a $9.5MM salary and is owed $10MM next year before a $10MM club option with a $1MM buyout. That seems a reasonable price for the veteran, though he is nearing 33 years of age. With Chicago now looking poised for a breakout, though, it may take a fairly substantial haul to pry him loose.
- The 28-year-old Cabrera profiles as a roughly league-average hitter and slightly below-average defender at the position. He has not returned to his All-Star form, but remains a useful player and is earning a manageable $10MM in his final season before reaching free agency. Of course, he is also playing on a Cleveland team that remains in the post-season hunt. If the Indians fall back, though, he could certainly become available.
- Rollins, an established veteran with ample post-season experience, is an obvious trade piece for a floundering Phillies club. Though he is well off of his peak levels, Rollins has still played at an above-average clip. He is playing on a $11MM salary this season and is just 57 plate appearances shy of triggering a $11MM vesting option for next year. The questions, of course, are whether Philadelphia will deal away one of the team’s core players from its glory years and whether Rollins will waive his 10-and-5 rights. He’s said recently that he wants to stay in Philadelphia.
- Andrus is still yet to turn 26 and is already in the midst of his sixth consecutive above-average season. Though he has limited value at the plate, he rates as an excellent base-runner and defender. Despite signing a massive eight-year, $120MM extension that does not even kick in until next year, and which allows him to opt out if he is able to meet or exceed expectations, he is playing on a club that has fallen out of contention this year and which has several even younger options waiting in the wings.
- In a somewhat similar situation is Castro of the Cubs, who has $44MM in guaranteed money remaining on his deal, including a buyout of a $16MM club option for 2020. The Cubs are clearly sellers, and the 24-year-old has returned to form (.280/.326/.452) after a disappointing 2013. Of course, Castro could be an important piece in the team’s turnaround plans, but there are several top prospects filtering up behind him. Needless to say, it would take a significant package to pry him loose.
- Speaking of large returns, Tulowitzki would obviously represent the prize of the market — and not just that of shortstops. He has been both outstanding (offensively and defensively) and healthy this year. His contract includes $118MM in guaranteed money, but with it comes seven years of control (the last via club option). That may price several teams out of the market, but many would jump at the chance to add one of the game’s true superstars at a below-market price. Owner Dick Monfort did publicly state that the Rox have no plans to deal Tulo, who is the face of their franchise.
- Drew has yet to find his form after sitting out most of the early part of the season. He owns an unsightly .131/.170/.238 line through 88 plate appearances, but is not far removed from being a solid regular. If the Red Sox eat a good portion of the remainder of his (annualized) $14.1MM salary, he could be moved to make way for younger players.
- For the Diamondbacks, Owings represents one of several middle infielders, all of whom could theoretically be dealt. He seems the least likely to go, in large part because he appears to be the prize of the group. Through 254 MLB plate appearances in his age-22 season, Owings rates out at 1.9 fWAR on the back of above-average production across the board.
- Escobar, just inked to a fairly team-friendly extension, is probably unlikely to be dealt in spite of his club’s struggles, but could potentially be had for the right price. His numbers on both the offensive and defensive sides of the equation have dipped since his excellent 2013 season, reducing his appeal. Tampa seems likely to hold on to him and hope for a rebound.
Backups/Utilitymen
Sean Rodriguez (Rays), Mike Aviles (Indians), Eduardo Nunez (Twins), Adam Rosales (Rangers), Danny Espinosa (Nationals), Clint Barmes (Pirates), Cliff Pennington (D’backs), Josh Rutledge (Rockies), Alexi Amarista (Padres)
Clubs aiming to plug holes in their benches have several options to pursue. Veterans like Rodriguez, Rosales, Barmes, Pennington, and (potentially) Aviles could provide ample flexibility and a useful presence down the stretch. All have seen time at short, some of them as everyday options at the position.
On the other hand, there are several younger players who could fill a bench role while also potentially representing longer-term options at short or other positions. Espinosa and Rutledge have both shown their fair share of promise at times, and may hold appeal for a variety of clubs if they are made available. The former, who will be arb-eligible next year, has seen his playing time diminish of late. Though Espinosa has played second base primarily at the big league level, he is an outstanding defender and came up as a shortstop. Rutledge, meanwhile, comes with plenty of cheap control. Amarista looks more like a true utility player, and has seen more action at other spots around the diamond, but should remain fairly inexpensive as he enters arbitration for the first time.
MLB-Ready Prospects
Nick Franklin (Mariners), Luis Sardinas (Rangers), Nick Ahmed (D’backs), Didi Gregorius (D’backs)
This group represents something of a different segment of the shortstop market. All face obstacles to regular playing time (and value maximization) with their present clubs, and each could appeal to teams looking to add a solid youngster that can take Major League innings from the get-go. Of course, all three come with some questions: for Franklin, whether he can handle short on an everyday basis; for Sardinas, Ahmed, and Gregorius, whether their bats will hold up in the majors.
Latest On Trade Talks Involving Red Sox Starting Pitchers
TODAY, 10:19am: The Braves are not interested in adding Peavy, sources tell David O’Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution (Twitter link).
10:07am: While Peavy remains the pitcher that the club is most interested in dealing, Boston has fielded strong interest in fellow starter John Lackey, tweets Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe. That is not terribly surprising: since the start of last year, Lackey has logged 306 2/3 innings of 3.64 ERA ball with 7.8 K/9 and 1.8 BB/9. And he is under contract for the league minimum for 2015.
YESTERDAY, 10:12pm: Peavy said that he has spoken with Red Sox GM Ben Cherington and understands that there is a possibility he will be dealt, tweets Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe. “Don’t think people are making stuff up,” he said.
6:31pm: Cardinals GM John Mozeliak says that the team believes it would need to give up one of its own starters to get a “top starter” in return, resulting in a net loss of years of control, tweets Goold.
6:06pm: The Cardinals are “looking for offense not Peavy” right now, reports Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch (via Twitter). Goold says there is no match with Boston, given that Joe Kelly is expected to return to the rotation in short order.
5:52pm: Boston is discussing starting pitching — not just Peavy — with many teams, but there is “nothing imminent,” a team source tells Abraham (Twitter link).
4:20pm: The Braves are also involved in talks regarding Peavy, reports Pete Abraham of the Boston Globe.
4:16pm: The Cards and Red Sox are in active trade talks regarding Peavy, tweets Jon Morosi of FOX Sports.
12:45pm: ESPN’s Jayson Stark is now also hearing that the Cardinals are interested in Peavy, and he hears that something could come together quickly (Twitter link). The only Red Sox game that the Cards have scouted was the Peavy start that Edes originally referenced, according to Stark.
12:01pm: The Cardinals have had their share of pitching injuries of late, with Jaime Garcia out for the season and Michael Wacha out indefinitely, and Gordon Edes of ESPNBoston.com tweeted yesterday that the team scouted Jake Peavy‘s most recent start for the Red Sox. Peter Gammons also tweets that he’s hearing the Redbirds have interest in Peavy.
The 33-year-old Peavy has struggled, to an extent, this season in what has been one of the least-effective campaigns of his 13-year career. He’s posted a 4.64 ERA with 6.8 K/9, 3.4 BB/9 and a 39.2 percent ground-ball rate. His 89.9 mph average fastball velocity is the lowest mark he’s posted since his rookie campaign in 2002. He’s been healthy, however, and has averaged more than six innings per start this season. A move to the NL, of course, could help his numbers as well.
Then again, Peavy wouldn’t need to do much to be an upgrade to the back of the St. Louis rotation. With their current injuries, the Cardinals are using a rotation of ace Adam Wainwright and right-handers Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Carlos Martinez (with Joe Kelly set to come off the DL in the next few days). Miller has seen his control disappear, along with his ability to miss bats, and he’s posted a 5.50 ERA over his past nine starts as a result. Martinez has pitched well since transitioning from the bullpen, but he threw just 108 innings last year and is already at 53 in 2014. Marco Gonzales, the club’s 2013 first-rounder, served up 11 runs with more walks than strikeouts in a three-start cameo recently. Peavy could serve as a durable back-end piece to complement veterans Wainwright, Lynn and Kelly while serving as an insurance policy for the club’s younger arms.
Peavy is earning $14.5MM this season and has a vesting player option that he won’t trigger. That option, valued at $15MM, required that Peavy pitch 400 innings from 2013-14, but he is still 144 2/3 frames shy of that mark after spending time on the DL last season. As such, he’s owed roughly $6.58MM over the remainder of the 2014 campaign and will be a free agent at year’s end.
As Edes points out, this isn’t the first time that the Cardinals have had interest in Peavy. The team expressed interest in the former NL Cy Young winner last summer. The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo reported over the weekend that Peavy could be of interest to some NL clubs if Boston were to eat some of the remaining salary on his deal.
Jeff Todd contributed to this post.
Rockies Owner Monfort: No Plans To Deal Tulowitzki
Rockies owner Dick Monfort says that the club has no desire to sell off star shortstop Troy Tulowitzki, in an interesting interview with Patrick Saunders of the Denver Post. The 29-year-old has been one of the most productive players in the game this year for a scuffling Colorado ballclub, leading to speculation that he could be dangled.
“I have read some stuff,” said Monfort, “but I haven’t heard anything about him wanting to leave or us wanting to get rid of him. I don’t have any plans of doing any of that.” When asked what he would do if Tulowitzki were to request a trade, Monfort said he would wait until such a situation arose.
Of course, many have suggested that now may be the time to deal the game’s premier shortstop, who has been healthy and productive all year. Under his late-2010 extension, Tulowitzki is guaranteed $20MM per year over 2015-19, $14MM for the 2020 campaign, and $4MM for a buyout of a $15MM club option in 2021. While hardly cheap, that contract pales in comparison to what Tulowitzki would likely garner on the open market.
Likewise, Monfort indicated that he was not inclined to move fellow headliner Carlos Gonzalez. “Same answer,” he said. “I haven’t talked to CarGo. All I know is that they love it here. Most offensive players do. I assume they are happy here, but none of us is happy with losing.”
As for the team’s broader issues, Monfort expressed confusion at the club’s struggles. He declined to pin it all on injuries, explaining that “we haven’t played as good as what the talent is.” Monfort expressed continued support for the club’s two head baseball decision-makers, Dan O’Dowd and Bill Geivett. “I have stuck behind both of them,” he said. “I think they are really good baseball people. I think, if you are looking to make a change, there has got to be a better option.” Likewise, Monfort said that manager Walt Weiss is a “winner” who had “grown into the role.”
Cole Hamels Can Block Trades To Twenty Clubs
The two-year anniversary is approaching of the pre-trade deadline extension signed between the Phillies and lefty Cole Hamels. As part of that six-year, $144MM deal, Hamels received a limited no-trade clause, the details of which had gone unreported.
Now, with Hamels a potential trade target, details have emerged regarding the clause, via Jon Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (links to Twitter). Hamels is permitted to designate twenty of the league’s thirty clubs for no-trade protection, reports Morosi. The remaining nine teams (other than the Phillies) to which Hamels may be traded without his consent are the Dodgers, Angels, Cardinals, Nationals, Braves, Yankees, Red Sox, Rangers, and Padres.
It is difficult to say what this means for the possible Hamels market, should Philly make him available. In some respects, the mere fact that the club would need to consult with the pitcher to send him to any one of twenty clubs could pose a deterrent. On the other hand, his list could conceivably indicate a willingness to go to a contender, as it seems to be composed of teams that were expected to be in the mix (in addition to those that, as Morosi notes, are located near his native southern California).
Orioles Designate Julio DePaula For Assignment
The Orioles have designated righty Julio DePaula for assignment, the club announced via press release. His active roster spot will go to the recently-activated Bud Norris.
DePaula, 31, did not make an appearance for Baltimore after being called up yesterday. He is still looking for his first MLB action since a 16-game, 8.55 ERA stint with the Twins back in 2007. Before joining the Orioles organization, DePaula had been playing internationally or in independent ball since a 2009 stint with the Rays’ Triple-A affiliate.
Indians Designate Mark Lowe For Assignment
The Indians have designated righty Mark Lowe for assignment, the club announced via press release. Lowe, 31, was added on a minor league deal late in the spring.
Since a mid-season call-up, Lowe has allowed three earned runs in seven innings. But he also has as many strikeouts as walks, with six apiece, and has given up ten base knocks. Over 281 1/3 career frames, all as a reliever, Lowe owns a 4.16 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 4.2 BB/9.
Royals Sign Joe Saunders
The Royals announced that they have signed left-hander Joe Saunders to a minor league deal and assigned him to Triple-A Omaha.
The 33-year-old Saunders made eight starts for the Rangers this season, pitching to a 6.13 ERA with 22 strikeouts against 20 walks in 39 2/3 innings of work. He was a consistent, if unspectacular, innings-eater from 2007-12 with the Angels, Diamondbacks and Orioles, but Saunders has struggled greatly in his past two Major League stints. From 2013-14, he owns a 5.42 ERA in 222 2/3 innings between the Mariners and Angels.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Tulo, Dodgers, Valbuena, Peavy, Sox
In his latest notes column, Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports writes that he wouldn’t be surprised to see Rockies shortstop Troy Tulowitzki ask for a trade this offseason. One friend of Tulo told Rosenthal, “I think the guy is going to lose his mind,” due to Colorado’s consistently poor results. He adds that this offseason will be a better time to deal Tulo or Carlos Gonzalez (with an eye on a larger rebuild), and while owner Dick Monfort may prefer to move CarGo, plenty of teams would make sense as a landing spot for Tulowitzki.
Here are some more highlights from Rosenthal’s newest work…
- One reason that Tulo could be particularly frustrated is with the Rockies‘ inability to build a competitive pitching staff at Coors Field. That’s no easy task, as Rosenthal notes, but it isn’t helped by the fact that free-agent pitchers simply don’t want to go there. While Jon Gray and Eddie Butler are promising, Butler joins a long list of currently injured Rockies starters. Additionally, rival scouts opined to Rosenthal that Colorado pitchers are poorly prepared: “They pitch not to hitters’ weaknesses but hitters strengths,” one scout told Rosenthal.
- The Dodgers talked with the Cubs about Jeff Samardzija before he was dealt to Oakland, but talks never got serious, as Los Angeles didn’t want to part with Joc Pederson or Corey Seager.
- Speaking of the Samardzija trade, Rosenthal hears that the deal was almost larger, as the Athletics at one point were trying to get Chicago to include Luis Valbuena in the deal as well. The A’s like Valbuena as a potential second-base upgrade and could rekindle talks for him later this month, but Chicago is reluctant to deal him, as he’s controlled through 2016, according to Rosenthal.
- The Cubs are receiving interest in lefty relievers James Russell and Wesley Wright, both of whom are more likely to be traded than Valbuena.
- Multiple reports today have indicated that the Cardinals have interest in Jake Peavy of the Red Sox, and Rosenthal reports that the two sides spoke a month ago, though not necessarily about Peavy. Boston has interest in the Cardinals’ young outfielders, and while St. Louis won’t deal Randal Grichuk or Stephen Piscotty for Peavy, the teams could expand the deal to include other players and make something work. Rosenthal floats the idea of a scenario in which Allen Craig heads to Boston, though that appears to be speculation.
- In other Red Sox rumors, he writes that the Sox don’t necessarily want to move free agents they would like to re-sign after the season even if they end up as sellers. In other words, Jon Lester and Koji Uehara may stay put regardless of the team’s approach. Beyond that, the team’s chips are largely underwhelming, as Jonny Gomes, Burke Badenhop, Stephen Drew and A.J. Pierzynski either don’t have huge appeal to buyers or would net marginal returns at best.
Nats Would Like To Add Young Shortstop Via Trade
The Nationals, who have had extension offers rejected by shortstop Ian Desmond according to multiple reports, are “actively seeking” young shortstops in trades, reports Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports.
Previous reports have indicated that Desmond rejected a seven-year, $85.5MM contract, but Rosenthal spoke to one source who said as much as $98MM was on the table over a seven-year period. Rosenthal notes that the Nats would clearly never trade Desmond or right-hander Jordan Zimmermann (also a free agent after the 2015 season) while the team was making a playoff push, but one or both could be on the market this winter.
The team isn’t likely to deal pieces from its Major League club this July, as they’re firmly in the playoff race. Instead, Rosenthal writes, Major League ready prospects like catcher Sandy Leon, outfielder Steven Souza and infielder Zach Walters could be used to entice teams instead (the mention of Walters is at least somewhat puzzling, as he is a shortstop himself, albeit one with poor on-base skills in Triple-A). Pitching prospects such as A.J. Cole and Lucas Giolito figure to be off limits due to uncertainty regarding Zimmermann’s future with the team, Rosenthal adds.
The Diamondbacks naturally come to mind when reports indicate that a club is looking for young shortstops, as they have Chris Owings, Didi Gregorius and Nick Ahmed in their organization. In the Nationals’ case, however, it seems likely that they’d be ok with targeting someone who is a bit further from Major League ready than that trio, as the team could simply retain Desmond for the 2015 season and give a younger shortstop another year to develop.
Trade Market For Second Basemen
Last summer, we saw several second base options change hands in the form of veterans Emilio Bonifacio, John McDonald, Alberto Callaspo and Michael Young, while young options like Leury Garcia and Grant Green included as returns in deals. There’s no shortage of contending clubs that have received little to no production at the keystone this season; the Cardinals, Athletics, Braves, Orioles, Marlins, Royals, Giants and Nationals have all seen their second basemen combine to turn in a wRC+ of 76 or lower (per Fangraphs).
Here’s a look at some names that could potentially be available on the market…
Starters
Daniel Murphy (Mets), Ben Zobrist (Rays), Aaron Hill (D’Backs), Martin Prado (D’Backs), Gordon Beckham (White Sox), Nick Franklin (Mariners), Danny Espinosa (Nationals), Chase Utley (Phillies), Luis Valbuena (Cubs)
- Murphy is controlled through 2015 and is well on his way to the finest season of his career (already at 2.5 fWAR). He’s improved his defense steadily over the past few years and is hitting .302/.343/.411. Reports have indicated that the Mets could also extend Murphy rather than trade him, a possibility which I examined in depth late last month.
- Also controlled through 2015, Zobrist may be the most desirable second base option on the market. Zobrist is a highly versatile defender and switch-hitter with a solid bat from both sides of the plate, and even if his offensive game is declining at age 33, he still has a .268/.350/.411 batting line (118 wRC+) and adds value on the bases as well. His $7.5MM club option is a bargain that most teams can afford.
- The 32-year-old Hill is having arguably the worst season of his career and certainly his worst with the D’Backs, but he’s just a year removed from a strong .291/.356/.462 batting line. Hill’s contract — he is owed $12MM in 2015 and again in 2016 — is a detriment, and Arizona would likely need to eat some salary.
- Prado, 30, hasn’t played second baseman extensively since 2010 with the Braves, but he has nearly 2000 career innings at the position. He’s not as strong defensively at the keystone as he is at third base or in left field, however. He’s also owed about $27MM through the 2016 season and hitting a sub-par .268/.313/.365 in 2014. Those numbers translate to an OPS+ of just 89, but he had a mark of 109 from 2008-13.
- Beckham, 27, is hitting just .244/.298/.389, having cooled off after an excellent month of May. He’s controlled fairly cheaply through 2015, earning $4.18MM in 2014 before being arb-eligible one last time this winter. However, he doesn’t come with a great defensive reputation, and he’s had some injury issues. Still, the rebuilding ChiSox are reportedly willing to deal him.
- The 23-year-old Franklin was recently considered one of the game’s top prospects. He’s been displaced by Robinson Cano and used some in a utility role with Seattle, but most of his time has come in the minors. He’s hitting .298/.396/.487 at Triple-A this season and is likely ready for a full-time crack at the Majors, despite his ugly numbers there in his brief stint this season.
- An Espinosa trade wouldn’t be ideal for the Nationals, but it would clear up their latest roster logjam. However, the Nats would also be selling low on Espinosa, which they’ve previously shown an unwillingness to do. The switch-hitter has just a .216/.283/.347 batting line this season and hit just .158/.193/.272 in 2013. While an Espinosa trade seems at least plausible, it doesn’t seem likely at this time.
- Utley’s inclusion on the list is simply due to the fact that there’s bound to be speculation regarding the lifetime Phillie. However, he’s gone on-record to say that he’s not planning on waiving his 10-and-5 rights, and I’d put the odds of him being traded under five percent, personally. Still, teams will likely at least ask GM Ruben Amaro Jr. about Utley, who is in the first year of a two-year extension that contains three vesting options.
- Valbuena hasn’t played much second base since 2010, and some clubs may prefer him in a utility role, but he’s hitting well enough in 2014 to justify regular at-bats. Controlled through 2016, Valbuena is earning $1.7MM this season and has a solid .260/.344/.427 triple-slash line.
Backups/Utility Players/Defensive Specialists
Darwin Barney (Cubs), Cliff Pennington (D’Backs), Rickie Weeks (Brewers), Chone Figgins (Dodgers), Logan Forsythe (Rays), Sean Rodriguez (Rays), Ryan Goins (Blue Jays), Daniel Descalso (Cardinals), Dan Uggla (Braves), Josh Rutledge (Rockies)
Uggla isn’t so much a trade candidate as he is a release candidate, but if and when the Braves cut him loose, another club could buy low on his powerful bat and hope a change of scenery turns him around. Weeks has been a serviceable right-handed component of a platoon in Milwaukee, but the Brew Crew may be open to shedding some of his salary and going with a cheaper option there if someone wants to roll the dice on giving Weeks a bigger role (though that’s just my speculation). Rutledge could be viewed by some teams as a starter, and Colorado could feel comfortable in dealing him and going with Troy Tulowitzki and DJ LeMahieu up the middle (again, my speculation). But, he’s posted some pretty pedestrian numbers in his career despite hitting at Coors Field.
Some players on this list — Descalso, Figgins, Goins — are under control with contenders, but they could conceivably moved for another piece and replaced with an internal option. The recently designated Donnie Murphy (Rangers) could be of interest to teams in need of bench help as well. He struggled in 2014 but did mash 11 homers in just 164 PA for the Cubs in 2013.