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Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Cleveland Indians

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Indians.  Their commitments for 2010:

C – Kelly Shoppach – $1.95MM+
C – Lou Marson – $400K
1B – Matt LaPorta – $400K
2B – Luis Valbuena – $400K
SS – Asdrubal Cabrera – $417K
3B – Jhonny Peralta – $4.6MM
1B/3B – Andy Marte – $400K
IF – Jason Donald – $400K
LF – Michael Brantley – $400K
CF – Grady Sizemore – $5.6MM
RF – Shin-Soo Choo – $420K
OF – Trevor Crowe – $400K
DH – Travis Hafner – $11.5MM

Other considerations: C – Wyatt Toregas – $400K, IF/OF – Chris Gimenez – $400K

SP – Jake Westbrook – $11MM
SP – Fausto Carmona – $4.9MM
SP – Justin Masterson – $416K
SP – Aaron Laffey – $409K
SP – David Huff – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Jeremy Sowers – $421K, Carlos Carrasco – $400K, Hector Rondon – $400K

RP – Kerry Wood – $10.5MM
RP – Chris Perez – $402K
RP – Rafael Perez – $437K+
RP – Tony Sipp – $400K
RP – Joe Smith – $428K
RP – Jensen Lewis – $419K
RP – Jess Todd/Adam Miller/Failed starter – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Shoppach

The Indians entered 2009 with an $81.6MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts.  For 2010 they have about $58MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Shoppach and Perez.  The Tribe could potentially spend around $20MM on new players without increasing the payroll, thanks to their veteran fire sale this year.

However, if fielding the best possible team in 2010 was the goal, the Indians wouldn't have traded Cliff Lee and Victor Martinez.  It would be inconsistent to sign free agents in an attempt to win the division next year.  The Indians should shop Shoppach, and non-tender him if they find no takers.  Moving Peralta's $4.85MM would be helpful.  Ditto for Wood's $10.5MM (assuming his 2011 option does not vest).  Westbrook and Hafner will hopefully build up value prior to summer 2010 trades.

Trading Sizemore does not make sense.  His value is at a low point, and he can be under control through 2012.  Even if the Indians concede 2010, Sizemore would be essential to winning the following two years.

Having shed Lee and Martinez, the Indians will no longer be the popular sleeper pick heading into 2010.  The trades brought in much-needed young pitching, but next year's rotation does not resemble that of a contender.

Offseason Outlook: Baltimore Orioles

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Orioles.  Their 2010 commitments:

C – Matt Wieters – $400K
C –
1B –
2B – Brian Roberts – $10MM
SS – Cesar Izturis – $2.6MM
3B – Ty Wigginton – $3.5MM
IF –
IF – Robert Andino – $400K
LF – Nolan Reimold – $400K
CF – Adam Jones – $435K
RF – Nick Markakis – $6.75MM
OF – Felix Pie – $410K
DH – Luke Scott – $2.4MM+

SP – Jeremy Guthrie – $650K+
SP – Koji Uehara – $5MM
SP – Brad Bergesen – $400K
SP – Brian Matusz – $868K
SP – Chris Tillman – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Rich Hill – $445K+, Jason Berken – $400K, David Hernandez – $400K, Jake Arrieta – $400K, Troy Patton  – $400K

RP – Chris Ray – $850K+
RP – Cla Meredith – $435K+
RP – Jim Johnson – $420K
RP – Matt Albers – $410K+
RP – Dennis Sarfate – $410K
RP – Brian Bass – $405K
RP – Kam Mickolio – $400K

Other commitments: Melvin Mora – $1MM buyout

The Orioles have about $40MM committed before arbitration raises to Scott, Guthrie, and a few others.  They should land in the low 40s after starting 2009 with a $67MM payroll.  There is cash to play with for a few reasonably-priced free agents.

Like the Pirates, the O's seem better off making their free agent strike a year from now.  With the way this club is stacking up, the AL East could be even more competitive in years to come.

For 2010, Wigginton could take either infield corner and Scott could be an option at first base.  Brandon Snyder and Michael Aubrey may also merit consideration.  The O's added their third baseman of the future in Josh Bell with the George Sherrill trade.  With the corners and DH spot in flux next year, it may make sense for the Orioles to add a free agent.  Players such as Carlos Delgado, Nick Johnson, and Adrian Beltre are interesting on one-year deals, if the price is right.

The rotation is suddenly deep enough where Uehara is being considered for a bullpen role.  Matusz and Tillman are the team's aces of the future, with both getting a look this year.  Arrieta isn't far behind.  I wouldn't be looking to spend much on a free agent pitcher this winter.

Certain players could be trade bait if Andy MacPhail doesn't consider them part of the next good Orioles club.  Scott and Guthrie, both under team control through 2012, jump out as candidates.  Guthrie's seen a dip in his strikeout and groundball rates this season, but he's potentially above-average in the NL.

Offseason Outlook: Pittsburgh Pirates

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Pirates.  Their commitments for 2010:

C – Ryan Doumit – $3.55MM
C – Jason Jaramillo – $400K
C/IF – Robinzon Diaz – $401K
1B/OF – Garrett Jones – $400K
2B – Delwyn Young – $406K
SS – Ronny Cedeno – $823K+
3B – Andy LaRoche – $414K
IF – Ramon Vazquez – $2MM
IF – Steve Pearce – $408K
IF – Brian Bixler – $404K
LF – Lastings Milledge – $452K
CF – Andrew McCutchen – $400K
RF – Brandon Moss – $415K

Other possibilities: 1B/C – Jeff Clement – $405K, 3B/OF – Neil Walker – $400K

SP – Paul Maholm – $4.5MM
SP – Zach Duke – $2.2MM+
SP – Ross Ohlendorf – $414K
SP – Charlie Morton – $405K
SP – Daniel McCutchen – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Jeff Karstens – $402K, SP – Kevin Hart – $408K, Jose Ascanio – $405K

RP – Matt Capps – $2.3MM+
RP – Jesse Chavez – $402K
RP – Evan Meek – $401K
RP – Joel Hanrahan – $420K
RP – Steven Jackson – $400K
RP – Phil Dumatrait – $402K
RP – Failed rotation candidate

Other commitments: Pedro Alvarez – $500K

Non-tender candidates: Tyler Yates – $1.3MM+, Craig Hansen – $825K+, Denny Bautista – $400K+, Chris Bootcheck – $600K+

Because of all the competition on this club, the above roster is just a rough projection for 2010.  The Pirates entered the 2009 season with a $48.7MM payroll.  My rough estimate has their 2010 commitment at about half that, before arbitration raises for Cedeno, Duke, and Capps.  The payroll should still fall under $30MM.

In my opinion, the Pirates are taking the right approach to rebuilding under GM Neal Huntington.  Huntington has a clear long-term focus, and isn't afraid to pull the trigger on a trade that will help the team in the future.  Gone from the team's Opening Day lineup: Nyjer Morgan, Freddy Sanchez, Nate McLouth, Adam LaRoche, Jack Wilson, and John Grabow.  Eric Hinske, Ian Snell, Tom Gorzelanny, and Sean Burnett were also traded. 

The game's best prospects are almost always off-limits, but the Pirates have added a variety of quality young players.  Since they don't have veterans clogging up starting jobs and payroll, there's been an opportunity for players like McCutchen, Jones, and Ohlendorf to emerge.  Based on his recent history it would not be surprising if Huntington is willing to listen on Doumit, Maholm, and Capps this winter and next summer.

It's a boring analysis, but expect the Pirates to stay on course by mostly avoiding the free agent market, remaining open to trade ideas, and spending on the draft.  2009 was a year of transition as the veterans were sent packing.  The team will continue sorting through its inventory in 2010; competing in 2011 does not seem out of reach.

Offseason Outlook: Kansas City Royals

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The Royals are up next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their 2010 commitments:

C – John Buck – $2.9MM+
C – Brayan Pena – $405K
1B – Billy Butler – $421K
2B – Alberto Callaspo – $416K
SS – Yuniesky Betancourt – $2MM
3B – Alex Gordon – $457K+
IF/OF – Mark Teahen – $3.575MM+
IF/OF – Willie Bloomquist – $1.7MM
LF – David DeJesus – $4.7MM
CF – Mitch Maier – $401K
RF – Jose Guillen – $12MM
OF – Josh Anderson- $400K
DH – Mike Jacobs – $3.25MM+

SP – Zack Greinke – $7.25MM
SP – Gil Meche – $12MM
SP – Brian Bannister – $1.7375MM+
SP – Luke Hochevar – $1.325MM
SP – Kyle Davies – $1.3MM+

RP – Joakim Soria – $3MM
RP – Juan Cruz – $3.25MM
RP – Kyle Farnsworth – $4.5MM
RP – John Bale – $1.2MM+
RP – Doug Waechter – $640K+
RP – Robinson Tejeda – $437K+
RP – Roman Colon – $435K+

Options: Coco Crisp – $8MM club option with $500K buyout, Yasuhiko Yabuta – $4MM club option with $500K buyout, Miguel Olivo – $3.3MM mutual option with $100K buyout

Non-tender/trade candidates: Buck, Bale, Waechter, Colon, Jacobs, Teahen

Cot's Baseball Contracts says the Royals entered 2009 with a $70.5MM payroll.  If the Royals non-tender or trade the six players I've listed as candidates, they'll have about $58MM committed before arbitration raises to Gordon, Bannister, Davies, and Tejeda.  So let's put them in the low-$60MM range.

Crisp's $8MM option is a tough call; it seems slightly steep but the market for center fielders is weak.  If exercised, the Royals won't have much to spend on their other needs unless payroll is raised.  But should they be spending more money?  I advocate using Pena plus a cheap free agent at catcher, promoting Kila Ka'aihue as a 1B/DH, and signing a reasonably priced reclamation project pitcher like Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, or Randy Johnson.  The bullpen might be lousy again, but it's pricey enough as is.

My version of the 2010 Royals is probably not a contender unless everyone stays healthy and they get breakout seasons from Gordon and Hochevar and bounceback years from Guillen, Meche, Cruz, and others.  Halfway through the season, if that's not happening, Dayton Moore should hold a fire sale and get what he can for Crisp, Guillen, Meche, Cruz, and Farnsworth.  The current mix of cheap effective young players and overpaid, underperforming veterans is not a formula for success.

Offseason Outlook: Washington Nationals

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First up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Nationals.  Their commitments for 2010:

C – Jesus Flores $412K
C – Wil Nieves – $445K+
1B – Adam Dunn – $12MM
2B – Alberto Gonzalez – $400K
SS – Cristian Guzman – $8MM
3B – Ryan Zimmerman – $6.25MM
IF/OF – Willie Harris – $1.5MM
IF – Pete Orr – $600K+ 
LF – Josh Willingham – $2.95MM+
CF – Nyjer Morgan – $412K
RF – Elijah Dukes – $412K
OF – Justin Maxwell – $400K
OF –

SP – John Lannan – $424K
SP – Scott Olsen – $2.8MM+
SP – Craig Stammen – $400K
SP – Garrett Mock – $400K
SP – J.D. Martin – $400K

Other rotation candidates: Shairon Martis, Ross Detwiler, Collin Balester

RP – Mike MacDougal – $2.65MM+
RP – Saul Rivera – $475K+
RP – Jason Bergmann – $439K+
RP – Sean Burnett – $409K+
RP – Tyler Clippard – $400K
RP –
RP - 

Other commitments: Austin Kearns – $1MM buyout, Stephen Strasburg – $400K plus portion of signing bonus

Non-tender candidates: Olsen

The Nationals entered 2009 with a $60MM payroll.  Their 2010 commitments come to about $44MM plus arbitration raises to Willingham, MacDougal, and others.  The Nats should have some cash to work with.

Now that Mike Rizzo is officially the team's GM, he can formulate a long-term plan for the organization.  The Nats seem to be going for the "rebuilding but respectable" route, given the signing of Dunn, acquisition of Willingham, and other attempted moves.  The Royals signed Jose Guillen and Gil Meche in recent years under that type of plan.  The Pirates, on the other hand, have avoided spending big free agent bucks.

MLB.com's Bill Ladson learned that the Nats intend to add a veteran presence to their inexperienced pitching staff this winter.  Low-cost options abound in the free agent market, and I like the idea.  A call to Tom Glavine could make sense.

The Nationals seem to have a long road ahead.  They're building around a core of Zimmerman and Strasburg; who else will star on the next good Washington club?  Promising righty Jordan Zimmermann went down with Tommy John surgery.  Morgan, Dukes, and Lannan might be productive players for a while.  But the farm system remains unimpressive, so the Nationals will be bad for the next several years unless they decide to double the payroll.

That leads me to ask: should the Nationals trade Ryan Zimmerman?  While he is the face of the franchise, his value is currently very high and he is signed through 2013.  Trading him could cause that farm system ranking to improve in a hurry.  To a lesser extent, Dunn, Willingham, and Lannan could bring in younger talent.

Offseason Outlook: Philadelphia Phillies

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The World Champion Phillies conclude our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Carlos Ruiz – $425K
C – Chris Coste – $415K
1B – Ryan Howard – $10MM+
2B – Chase Utley – $11MM
SS – Jimmy Rollins – $7.5MM
3B – Pedro Feliz – $5MM
IF – Eric Bruntlett – $600K+
IF/OF – Greg Dobbs – $440K+
LF – Jayson Werth – $1.7MM+
CF – Shane Victorino – $480K+
RF – Geoff Jenkins – $6.75MM
OF – Matt Stairs – $1MM
OF – Greg Golson – $400K

SP – Cole Hamels – $500K+
SP – Brett Myers – $12MM
SP – Joe Blanton – $3.7MM+
SP – J.A. Happ – $400K
SP – Kyle Kendrick – $445K

RP – Brad Lidge – $11.5MM
RP – J.C. Romero – $4MM
RP – Ryan Madson – $1.4MM+
RP – Chad Durbin – $900K+
RP – Clay Condrey – $420K+
RP – R.J. Swindle – $400K
RP – Andrew Carpenter – $400K

Other commitments: Adam Eaton – $8.5MM, Tom Gordon – $1MM

That’s about $89MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Howard, Bruntlett, Dobbs, Werth, Victorino, Blanton, Hamels, Madson, Durbin, and Condrey.  The raises should push the Phillies past $115MM.  The Phillies’ ’09 payroll is not set at this time.  They entered the season at $98.2MM, so a large increase is necessary.

As you can see above, re-signing Jamie Moyer and Scott Eyre will go a long way toward rounding out the pitching staff.  The Phils may be interested in bringing in an additional starter and another reliever.

Since the Phillies have entertained the idea of re-signing Pat Burrell, we can assume they’re willing to spend at least $10MM on left field.  The money could go toward any number of righthanded bats.  The biggest names don’t seem to fit into the payroll, but there are good options in the $12MM or less bracket.  The Phillies ranked 7th of 16 NL clubs in OBP, so finding someone who can match Burrell’s .370 is important.  They could also make up ground with an OBP improvement from Howard (.339) and more production behind the plate.

A full season of Blanton gives the Phils a respectable #1-4, assuming Moyer returns.  The key players from the bullpen will be back.  The Phillies won’t look much different in 2009.  They didn’t win the World Series on a bunch of career years, so keeping this group intact is a reasonable strategy.

Offseason Outlook: Tampa Bay Rays

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Rays.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Dioner Navarro – $413K+
C – Shawn Riggans – $400K
1B – Carlos Pena – $8MM
2B – Akinori Iwamura – $3.25MM
SS – Jason Bartlett – $417K+
3B – Evan Longoria – $550K
IF – Willy Aybar – $402K
IF – Ben Zobrist – $400K
LF – Carl Crawford – $8.25MM
CF – B.J. Upton – $413K
RF – Gabe Gross – $414K+
OF – Fernando Perez – $400K
DH – Jonny Gomes – $1.275MM+

SP – Scott Kazmir – $6MM
SP – James Shields – $1.5MM
SP – Matt Garza – $405K
SP – Andy Sonnanstine – $400K
SP – David Price – $750K

RP – Troy Percival – $4MM
RP – Chad Bradford – $3.5MM
RP – Dan Wheeler – $3.2MM
RP – Trever Miller – $2MM (club option)
RP – Grant Balfour – $500K+
RP – Edwin Jackson – $413K+
RP – J.P. Howell – $400K

Other commitments: Cliff Floyd – $250K, Jeff Niemann – $1.04MM

That’s about $49MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Navarro, Bartlett, Gross, Gomes, Balfour, and Jackson.  Payroll could approach $60MM to bring this group back.  I’m not sure how high the Rays can go, but they started the year at $43.7MM.

The Rays had a middling offense in 2008, but still reached the World Series.  They didn’t hit lefties very well, so it makes sense to acquire a righthanded hitting slugger for right field or DH.  Pat Burrell, Magglio Ordonez, Josh Willingham, and Casey Blake could fit the bill.  Milton Bradley too, if the Rays want to go there.  Matt Holliday is technically available.  The Rays could, of course, expand their search to include lefthanded hitters.

The bullpen could be tweaked, but a major signing is probably unnecessary. 

The Rays are one of the few teams in baseball who can boast of a legitimate starting pitching surplus.  When Jackson and Wade Davis can’t crack your rotation, you’re in good shape.  Trading the arb-eligible Jackson could make sense this winter.  This is entirely speculation, but would Jackson for Ryan Ludwick, Jermaine Dye, or Billy Butler make sense for anyone?

It’s a great time to be a Rays fan – they have a young, affordable, contending club.  Andrew Friedman only needs to tinker this winter.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Dodgers

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Dodgers.  Their likely 2009 commitments are below.  Remember, this is not a projection of the actual ’09 roster.  I use only internal candidates here as a way of showing depth and needs.

C – Russell Martin – $500K+
C – Danny Ardoin – $400K
1B – James Loney – $411K
2B – Blake DeWitt – $400K
SS – Chin-Lung Hu – $400K
3B –
IF – Tony Abreu – $400K
IF –
LF – Juan Pierre – $10MM
CF – Matt Kemp – $406K
RF – Andre Ethier – $425K+
OF – Andruw Jones – $15MM
OF – Delwyn Young – $400K

SP – Chad Billingsley – $415K
SP – Hiroki Kuroda – $10MM
SP – Clayton Kershaw – $400K
SP – Jason Schmidt – $12MM
SP – James McDonald – $400K

RP – Takashi Saito – $2MM+
RP – Jonathan Broxton – $454K+
RP – Hong-Chih Kuo – $400K
RP – Cory Wade – $400K
RP – Scott Proctor – $1.115MM+
RP – Ramon Troncoso – $400K
RP – Yhency Brazoban – $540K+

Buyouts: Brad Penny – $2MM, Gary Bennett – $50K

That’s about $59MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Martin, Ethier, Saito, Broxton, Proctor, and Brazoban.  A few of those guys figure to be non-tendered (Berroa for sure), but raises could push the Dodgers close to $70MM.  The Dodgers entered the ’08 season with a $118MM payroll, so theoretically Ned Colletti could have $48MM to spend (more than any team, as far as I can tell).  Makes sense, since the Dodgers have the most free agents.

First issue: Manny Ramirez.  I can’t see the Dodgers (or any team, really) stretching beyond four years, $85MM or so.  Just a few months ago I wouldn’t have thought Manny could get four years.  Will Scott Boras ultimately be reasonable, or will he stick to the "iconic" talk and aim for a contract well beyond $100MM?

As far as clearing the salaries of Pierre or Jones, I don’t see it happening.  Of course, it’s worth exploring what, if any, bad contracts might be offered in return.  Elsewhere on the trade front, dealing Martin seems unlikely.  Any replacement would be a downgrade.

The Dodgers need to address the left side of their infield; it could be considered more crucial than the Manny situation.  Interest is mutual with Rafael Furcal, and he’s the best available option.  A return of Adrian Beltre would be intriguing at third base; otherwise options like Casey Blake and Joe Crede can be considered.

It’s unclear whether Penny will be back, but Derek Lowe is expected to sign elsewhere.  The Dodgers may have two open rotation spots.  The big names are legitimate options – Jake Peavy and C.C. Sabathia.  The Dodgers will have the money for Sabathia, especially if Manny signs elsewhere.  The Dodgers may not get either ace, but they seem likely to sign a veteran starter (Randy Johnson could work).

The back end of the bullpen looks pretty good (Broxton/Kuo/Wade).  Colletti will still probably consider signing Joe Beimel and/or Chan Ho Park, or other veterans of that nature.

Bottom line – it should be a very active offseason for the Dodgers.

Offseason Outlook: Boston Red Sox

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Red Sox.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C –
C – Kevin Cash – $400K+
1B – Kevin Youkilis – $3MM+
2B – Dustin Pedroia – $457K
SS – Jed Lowrie – $400K
3B – Mike Lowell – $12MM
IF – Julio Lugo – $9MM
IF – Jeff Bailey – $400K
LF – Jason Bay – $7.5MM
CF – Coco Crisp – $5.75MM
RF – J.D. Drew – $14MM
OF – Jacoby Ellsbury – $406K
DH – David Ortiz – $12.5MM

SP – Josh Beckett – $10.5MM
SP – Daisuke Matsuzaka – $8MM
SP – Jon Lester – $422K
SP – Tim Wakefield – $4MM (club option)
SP – Clay Buchholz – $400K

RP – Jonathan Papelbon – $775K+
RP – Justin Masterson – $400K
RP – Hideki  Okajima – $1.75MM
RP – Manny Delcarmen – $421K
RP – Javier Lopez – $840K+
RP – David Aardsma – $404K
RP – Michael Bowden – $400K

That’s about $94MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Cash, Youkilis, Papelbon, and Lopez.  Those should nudge the Sox over $100MM.  They began the season with a $133MM payroll, and began ’07 at $143MM.  The Red Sox have a significant amount of money to spend.

The catcher situation needs to be addressed.  The Sox may offer Jason Varitek a one-year deal, or they could consider a free agent like Ivan Rodriguez.  The Rangers’ Gerald Laird would be a fine trade target, as he does not require seasoning and is under control for two more seasons.  Bengie Molina and Ramon Hernandez also may be available.  Joel Sherman suggests Russell Martin could hit the block; the price would be very steep.

Some of Boston’s veteran contracts are starting to look worse, particularly Lowell and Ortiz.  Still, neither player performed poorly this year.  The Red Sox don’t have a true albatross contract, though the $18MM owed to Lugo is bothersome.

There is not a clear place to add an offensive player aside from catcher.  The Sox might take a look at Mark Teixeira, probably to drive the price up more than anything.  They can afford him, but then they’d probably have to trade Lowell.

Boston’s ’09 rotation is already above-average, especially if Buchholz gets back on track.  Masterson and Bowden could also be rotation candidates.  Wakefield is an easy call to exercise at $4MM.  Like Teixeira, the Red Sox don’t need C.C. Sabathia.  Still, signing him would keep the best available pitcher away from the Yankees.  It would not be surprising to see the Sox make an aggressive bid for C.C.

Most of the bullpen should return; maybe the Sox will make a minor reliever signing to eat up some of Mike Timlin’s innings.

The Red Sox are sitting pretty for ’09, with catching the only glaring need.  After that, GM Theo Epstein will have a lot of cash to spend on players who might be considered luxuries.  Epstein seems to feel the same way, based on his comments.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago Cubs

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Cubs.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Geovany Soto – $401K
C – Henry Blanco – $3MM (club option)
1B – Derrek Lee – $13MM
2B – Mark DeRosa – $5.5MM
SS – Ryan Theriot – $428K
3B – Aramis Ramirez – $15.65MM
IF – Ronny Cedeno – $407K+
IF – Mike Fontenot – $405K
LF – Alfonso Soriano – $16MM
CF – Reed Johnson – $1.3MM+
RF – Kosuke Fukudome – $11.5MM
OF – Felix Pie – $402K
OF – Micah Hoffpauir – $400K

SP – Carlos Zambrano – $17.75MM
SP – Rich Harden – $7MM
SP – Ted Lilly – $12MM
SP – Sean Marshall – $400K
SP – Jason Marquis – $9.875MM

RP – Carlos Marmol – $430K
RP – Chad Gaudin – $1.775MM+
RP – Jeff Samardzija – $1.8MM
RP – Neal Cotts – $800K+
RP – Michael Wuertz – $860K+
RP – Angel Guzman – $401K
RP – Kevin Hart – $400K

That’s about $122MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Cedeno, Johnson, Gaudin, Cotts, and Wuertz.  They will still be under $130MM after that.  A bump in payroll is expected – $140MM?  $150MM?

If the Cubs are able to retain GM Jim Hendry, his first order of business will probably be to re-sign Ryan Dempster and Kerry Wood before they hit the open market.  Dempster could cost $14MM a year for four years, while Wood could require a salary in the $10MM range.  Not sure about the term.

Even if Dempster’s deal is backloaded, signing both could put the Cubs at $150MM.  It figures that they will still look to add a left-handed hitting outfielder to play right or center field.  That’d be easier to fit in if some of Marquis’ $9.875MM can be moved.  The Cubs can probably spare him despite Harden’s fragility, since Gaudin and Samardzija are also starting candidates.

The free agent market offers Jim Edmonds, Mark Kotsay, Eric Hinske, Ken Griffey Jr., and Bobby Abreu.  Players such as Adam Dunn, Milton Bradley, and Raul Ibanez could enter the picture if the Cubs convince themselves they can handle right field full-time.  Brian Giles would be an ideal fit, if he will waive his no-trade rights.  Jody Gerut, Jeremy Hermida, Coco Crisp, and Randy Winn could also be trade targets.

The Cubs could also look to add that lefty bat to the infield, pushing DeRosa to right.  Maybe Fontenot is that bat.  External options include Rafael Furcal, Brian Roberts, and Orlando Hudson.

I expect the Cubs to re-sign Dempster and Wood and then bring in one lefthanded hitter from the group mentioned above.  This team had it all in 2008: offense, defense, pitching.  The playoff performance was disappointing, but it makes sense to tweak the roster and just try to get back there.

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