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Offseason Outlook: Milwaukee Brewers

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Brewers.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Jason Kendall – $4.6MM
C – Mike Rivera – $400K
1B – Prince Fielder – $670K+
2B – Rickie Weeks – $1.057MM+
SS – J.J. Hardy – $2.65MM+
3B – Bill Hall – $6.8MM
IF – Joe Dillon – $400K
IF – Alcides Escobar – $400K
LF – Ryan Braun – $745K
CF – Mike Cameron – $10MM (club option)
RF – Corey Hart – $444K+
OF – Tony Gwynn Jr. – $400K
OF –

SP – Yovani Gallardo – $404K
SP – Dave Bush – $2.55MM+
SP – Manny Parra – $400K
SP – Jeff Suppan – $12.5MM
SP – Seth McClung – $750K+

RP – David Riske – $4.25MM
RP – Salomon Torres – $3.75MM (club option)
RP – Carlos Villanueva – $413K
RP – Mitch Stetter – $400K
RP – Mark DiFelice – $400K
RP – Tim Dillard – $400K
RP – Todd Coffey – $925K+

Other commitments: Craig Counsell – $400K buyout, Chris Capuano – $3.75MM+

That’s about $60MM committed before arbitration raises to Fielder, Weeks, Hardy, Hart, Bush, McClung, Coffey, and Capuano.  The last two could be non-tendered (and maybe re-signed after that).  Those raises will still add up, so I’ll say roughly $75MM committed.  The Brewers entered the season at $80.9MM and added several million more for C.C. Sabathia and Ray Durham midseason.  The Brewers set a team record with more than three million fans in ’08, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see payroll reach $100MM.

Another reason I say that is the Brewers are seriously entertaining re-signing Sabathia.  He and Gallardo would make a fine 1-2 punch next year; otherwise GM Doug Melvin will probably explore other free agent options.  The cost-effective alternative would be to shop Fielder.

Fielder seems more expendable than Hardy for a couple of reasons.  One, the Brewers have a powerful prospect in Mat Gamel.  Two, Hardy is strong both offensively and defensively at a key position.  If Escobar is ready, Hardy could move to third.  If he’s not ready, a one-year offer to Joe Crede could make sense.

The Brewers could also use a late-inning reliever.  Perhaps the failure of last year’s free agent signings will prompt Melvin to focus on the trade market.  Huston Street, B.J. Ryan, and Kevin Gregg may be available.

Busy offseason for Melvin – he has to address the rotation, find a closer, decide on Cameron, figure out third base, and decide whether to trade Fielder or Hardy.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Angels.  Here’s how their 25-man roster might look using only internal candidates:

C – Mike Napoli – $425K
C – Jeff Mathis – $415K
1B – Kendry Morales – $600K
2B – Howie Kendrick – $433K
SS – Erick Aybar – $415K
3B – Brandon Wood – $400K
IF – Maicer Izturis – $1.2MM+
IF/OF – Robb Quinlan – $1.05MM+
LF – Chone Figgins – $4.75MM+
CF – Torii Hunter – $17.5MM
RF – Gary Matthews Jr. – $10MM
OF – Reggie Willits – $433K
DH/OF – Vladimir Guerrero – $15MM (club option)

SP – John Lackey – $9MM (club option)
SP – Ervin Santana – $420K+
SP – Jered Weaver – $435K
SP – Joe Saunders – $425K
SP – Dustin Moseley – $420K

RP – Scot Shields – $5MM
RP – Jose Arredondo – $400K
RP – Justin Speier – $4.75MM
RP – Jason Bulger – $400K
RP – Kevin Jepsen – $400K
RP – Darren O’Day – $400K
RP –

Other commitments: Garret Anderson – $3MM, Kelvim Escobar – $9.5MM (ready by All-Star break?)

That’s about $87MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Izturis, Quinlan, Figgins, and Santana.  So that’ll put them in the low $90MM range.  The Angels were at $124MM this year.  Owner Arte Moreno wants to keep payroll there, but could make exceptions for the right players.  We’ll say they have at least $30MM to spend, maybe more.

Three star players/free agents should be under consideration: Mark Teixeira, Francisco Rodriguez, and C.C. Sabathia.  Teixeira makes the most sense, especially since Morales’ ’08 minor league line translates to a .740 OPS in the bigs.  Given their .330 team OBP, the Angels could really use Tex’s .400.

Losing both K-Rod and Darren Oliver would hurt the pen; the Angels will probably bring in some kind of veteran help.  With Escobar slated to miss a good chunk of ’09, one more starter is also needed.  It’d be tough to cram Tex and Sabathia into the budget, but the free agent market offers plenty of other starters.

I know the Angels have their own run-scoring style, but it’s hard to argue against getting on base more often.  With that in mind I’d make Tex top priority.  With the DH spot semi-open, I’d also consider Milton Bradley.  Brian Giles, Adam Dunn, Magglio Ordonez, Jason Giambi, Prince Fielder, Bobby Abreu, and Pat Burrell are other big names who get on base.  (Manny Ramirez fits as well, though it’d have to be him instead of Teixeira rather than both).

$30-40MM is a lot of spending money, though $20MM+ (’09 salary) could go toward Teixeira or Sabathia.  I might take my chances with the fifth starter job and bring in Teixeira and another high-OBP player.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Brian Schneider – $4.9MM
C – Ramon Castro – $2.5MM
1B – Carlos Delgado – $12MM
2B – Luis Castillo – $6MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $5.75MM
3B – David Wright – $7.5MM
IF –
IF – Argenis Reyes – $400K
LF – Dan Murphy – $400K
CF – Carlos Beltran – $18.5MM
RF – Ryan Church – $2MM+
OF – Endy Chavez – $2.05MM
OF – Marlon Anderson – $1.15MM

SP – Johan Santana – $20MM
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – John Maine – $450K+
SP – Jon Niese – $400K
SP – Bobby Parnell – $400K

RP – Scott Schoeneweis – $3.6MM
RP – Aaron Heilman – $1.2MM+
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $1.025MM+
RP – Duaner Sanchez – $850K+
RP – Brian Stokes – $402K
RP – Joe Smith – $400K
RP – Eddie Kunz – $400K

Other commitments: Billy Wagner – $10.5MM

That’s around $104MM committed before arbitration raises to Church, Maine, Heilman, Feliciano, and Sanchez.  Some of those relievers may be gone, but we’ll put the Mets around $110MM after the raises.  They entered 2008 near $138MM, so Omar Minaya could have almost $30MM to spend.

Revamping the bullpen is top priority; we discussed some options here.  A commenter on that post made a good point – maybe the Mets can’t afford to take the ideal approach to building a bullpen.  Overpaying for the sure thing would be justifiable.  I’d still sign Brian Fuentes over Francisco Rodriguez though.  Fuentes may cost half as much overall while providing a similar performance.

The Mets also need to acquire one starting pitcher.  A Randy Wolf type could work, or they could spend additional money for Derek Lowe or A.J. Burnett.  Bartolo Colon and Freddy Garcia could also be appealing.  With one reliable addition, it’ll be a solid rotation.

Murphy provides flexibility – he could be the starting left fielder, he could play first in the event of a Delgado exercise n’ trade, or he could replace Castillo at second.  It wouldn’t be surprising to see the Mets go after Raul Ibanez or Juan Rivera, the somewhat reasonable free agent options at left field.  I don’t see them getting into the Dunn/Burrell/Manny price range, but you never know.

Castillo is a problem, though I don’t think it’s imperative the Mets get rid of him.  It was a bad signing from Day 1, and Castillo pretty much performed as expected in 2008 (decent OBP, no power, questionable defense, injury issues).  That is Luis Castillo and it was a year ago.  I suppose you could say his defense was even worse than expected and he missed more time than usual.  Maybe he can bounce back next year.  I wouldn’t assume most of his remaining $18MM just to get Castillo off the roster, but I would entertain swapping him for another bad contract.  Heilman is another player who might be trade bait, and he probably has some positive value.

The Mets have an excellent core for ’09 – three good starting pitchers plus Wright, Reyes, Beltran, and Delgado all signed at arguably below-market rates.  Minaya just needs to figure out how to allocate his money between a closer (and maybe a second reliever), a starter, and a left fielder.

Offseason Outlook: New York Yankees

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Yankees. Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – Jorge Posada – $13.1MM
C – Jose Molina – $2MM
1B –
2B – Robinson Cano – $6MM
SS – Derek Jeter – $20MM
3B – Alex Rodriguez – $32MM
IF – Wilson Betemit – $1.165MM+
IF – Cody Ransom – $400K
LF – Johnny Damon – $13MM
CF – Brett Gardner – $400K
RF – Xavier Nady – $3.35MM+
OF – Melky Cabrera – $462K
DH – Hideki Matsui – $13MM

SP – Chien-Ming Wang – $4MM+
SP – Joba Chamberlain – $400K
SP – Phil Hughes – $407K
SP – Ian Kennedy – $400K
SP – Alfredo Aceves – $400K

RP – Mariano Rivera – $15MM
RP – Damaso Marte – $6MM club option ($250K buyout)
RP – Brian Bruney – $725K+
RP – Jose Veras – $400K
RP – Edwar Ramirez – $400K
RP – Phil Coke – $400K
RP – Mark Melancon – $400K

Buyouts: Jason Giambi – $5MM, Carl Pavano – $1.95MM

Other commitments: Andrew Brackman – $1.1375MM, Juan Miranda – $400K

The Yankees are a bit over $140MM before arbitration raises to Betemit, Nady, Wang, and Bruney.  Maybe after those they’re near $150MM for current players (if Marte’s option is exercised).  Will the Yankees really slash payroll all the way to the $180MM range?  Brian Cashman would still be able to add $30MM in ’09 salaries, but it wouldn’t surprise anyone if he has more than that.

Jon Heyman says the Yankees want to sign two free agent starters out of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, and Derek Lowe.  If they land their top target, Sabathia, then Lowe seems more likely than Burnett.  It’d be an ’09 rotation with Hughes, Kennedy, and others battling for one spot.  If Mike Mussina or Andy Pettitte can be re-signed, Joba can slot in fifth and get extra days off.  Depth would be excellent, but signing three starters, each for $12MM or more, could eat up most of the spending money.

The two other much-discussed holes are first base and center field.  Cashman has spoken about wanting a regular first baseman as opposed to shuttling in Posada, Damon, and Matsui.  Possibly available regulars at first base: Mark Teixeira, Prince Fielder, Adam LaRoche, Mike Jacobs, and Hank Blalock.  The list could expand in coming months.  I do not see the Yanks trading Hughes for Fielder, if some permutation of that deal is available.

If the Yankees somehow sign Sabathia, Teixeira, and another starter, they’ll be looking fantastic for 2009.  It could be done if payroll is in the $200-210MM range again.  Sure, Cano should be better, Matsui and Posada hopefully healthy.  But Abreu could be replaced with Nady and Giambi seems gone.  Tex would add stability, though he has to be seen as a luxury. 

The market for center fielders, whether via free agency or trade, is poor.  It makes sense to see if one of the internal options emerges as a tolerable regular (Gardner, Cabrera, Austin Jackson).  As alluded to earlier, Abreu will probably be offered arbitration, decline, and sign elsewhere (leaving Nady as the right fielder).

The pen doesn’t seem like a major need; Marte on the equivalent of a one-year, $5.75MM deal is reasonable.  Joe at River Ave. Blues tells me Melancon is likely to snag a spot. 

Bottom line: it looks like most of the money will be spent on starting pitching, but Teixeira would sure look nice in pinstripes.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

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Next up in the Offseason Outlook series, the Astros.  Their likely 2009 commitments:

C – J.R. Towles – $400K
C – Humberto Quintero – $405K+
1B – Lance Berkman – $14.5MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $5MM
SS – Miguel Tejada – $13MM
3B – Ty Wigginton – $4.35MM+
IF – Geoff Blum – $1.25MM
IF – David Newhan – $575K+
LF – Carlos Lee – $18.5MM
CF – Michael Bourn – $400K
RF – Hunter Pence – $400K
OF – Darin Erstad – $1.75MM
OF – Reggie Abercrombie – $400K

SP – Roy Oswalt – $14MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $451K+
SP – Brian Moehler – $2.3MM
SP – Brandon Backe – $800K+
SP – Alberto Arias – $400K

RP – Jose Valverde – $4.7MM+
RP – Geoff Geary – $1.125MM+
RP – Tim Byrdak – $400K+
RP – Wesley Wright – $400K
RP – Fernando Nieve – $400K
RP – Chris Sampson – $401K
RP –

That’s roughly $86MM committed, plus arbitration raises to Wigginton, Rodriguez, Backe, Valverde, Geary, and others.  Those raises could put the team past $95MM.  The Astros began the season at $88.9MM.  Fortunately, GM Ed Wade has payroll flexibility this winter.

Wade will begin the offseason by attempting to re-sign Randy Wolf, Doug Brocail, and LaTroy Hawkins.  That alone could result in ’09 salaries of $15MM+.  Then Wade might replace Quintero with a more established backup catcher, which could cost another million bucks.  So we’re looking at something around $110MM to keep the current group intact.  It’s hard to see the ’Stros plunking down an additional $10MM+ on another veteran starter.

It’s possible to envision the pitching staff working out, but the offense is a question mark.  Several factors needed for improvement: second-year success for Towles, more Matsui, Lee and Wigginton, and a higher batting average from Pence.  Center field seems likely to remain an offensive void.

Offseason Outlook: Chicago White Sox

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the White Sox.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – A.J. Pierzynski – $6.25MM
C – Toby Hall – $2.25MM (club option, $150K buyout)
1B – Paul Konerko – $12MM
2B – Chris Getz – $400K
SS – Alexei Ramirez – $1.1MM
3B – Josh Fields – $400K
IF –
LF – Carlos Quentin – $400K
CF – Brian Anderson – $400K
RF – Jermaine Dye – $11.5MM
OF – DeWayne Wise – $400K+
OF/1B – Nick Swisher – $5.3MM
DH – Jim Thome – $13MM

SP – Mark Buehrle – $14MM
SP – Javier Vazquez – $11.5MM
SP – John Danks – $400K
SP – Gavin Floyd – $400K
SP – Clayton Richard – $400K

RP – Bobby Jenks – $550K+
RP – Scott Linebrink – $4.5MM
RP – Octavio Dotel – $6MM
RP – Matt Thornton – $1.325MM
RP – Boone Logan – $405K
RP – D.J. Carrasco – $400K+
RP – Ehren Wassermann – $400K

Buyouts: Ken Griffey Jr. – $2MM

Other commitments: Jose Contreras – $10MM, Mike MacDougal – $2.65MM

I’m not sure if any of the $22MM received from the Phillies will go toward Thome’s 2009 salary.  I’m also unsure if Chicago’s portion of Junior’s buyout goes toward ’09 payroll.  To play it safe I will include all of that.  That brings us to $108MM plus arbitration raises, notably to Jenks.  So figure a little north of $110MM committed.  The Sox began the year with a $121MM payroll, though GM Ken Williams will not necessarily use every last dollar.  It seems that the Sox can afford one decent free agent if that’s Williams’ preference.

The Sox have talked about wanting to add speed at the top and bottom of the lineup.  A guy with a strong OBP would surely be preferable.  Willy Taveras, Juan Pierre, Ichiro Suzuki, Brian Roberts, Orlando Hudson, Chone Figgins, Randy Winn, Cesar Izturis, Bobby Abreu, and Coco Crisp may be available to varying degrees.  Roberts would be perfect, but the Orioles may still want young pitching or a shortstop.  Winn or Crisp could be easier to acquire.  The Angels may prefer to keep Figgins.

There’s talk of moving one of the pricier vets, maneuvering past no-trade clauses.  Dye would be appealing to many clubs; Abreu could be signed as a replacement.  Another option: shop Jenks.  Three years of Jenks is quite valuable, and he’d make an appealing alternative to signing Francisco Rodriguez or Brian Fuentes.

At this point we have learned to just sit back and watch Williams work…he has proven he’s unpredictable and very good at his job.

Offseason Outlook: St. Louis Cardinals

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The Cardinals are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – Yadier Molina – $3.25MM
C – Bryan Anderson – $400K
1B – Albert Pujols – $16MM
2B – Adam Kennedy – $4MM
SS – Brendan Ryan – $400K
3B – Troy Glaus – $11.25MM
IF – Aaron Miles – $1.4MM+
IF/OF – Chris Duncan – $439K
LF – Skip Schumaker – $400K
CF – Rick Ankiel – $900K+
RF – Ryan Ludwick – $411K+
OF – Brian Barton – $400K
OF – Joe Mather – $400K

SP – Chris Carpenter – $14MM
SP – Adam Wainwright – $2.6MM
SP – Kyle Lohse – $7.125MM
SP – Todd Wellemeyer – $1MM+
SP – Joel Pineiro – $7.5MM

RP – Chris Perez – $400K
RP – Ryan Franklin – $2.5MM
RP – Kyle McClellan – $400K
RP – Jason Motte – $400K
RP – Brad Thompson – $414K+
RP – Josh Kinney – $400K
RP –

Buyouts: Mark Mulder – $1.5MM

That’s about $78MM, plus arbitration raises for Miles, Ludwick, Wellemeyer, and Thompson.  The Cards apparently had around $30MM to spend before signing Lohse, so now they have roughly $21MM.  Unloading Kennedy is unlikely to save much money.

I don’t have much to add beyond the musings of Larry Borowsky of Viva El Birdos.  The Cards will probably look to re-sign Felipe Lopez, maybe Jason Isringhausen at the right price.  They’ll ink a few lefties, maybe a swingman pitcher, and a backup catcher. 

It seems the Cardinals can either spend good money on a shortstop or a reliever, but probably not both.  It could boil down to Rafael Furcal or Brian Fuentes; you know I prefer Furcal.  It’s easier to piece together a bullpen than find a starting shortstop.

John Mozeliak could also pursue a trade.  Some thought to be available who might fit: Brian Roberts, Dan Uggla, Jack Wilson, B.J. Ryan, George Sherrill, Kevin Gregg, and Huston Street.  Top prospect Colby Rasmus figures to be off-limits; you just can’t trade a potential star center fielder.  And Ankiel, a Scott Boras client, is a free agent after ’09.

The Cardinals will always be fearsome with Pujols anchoring their lineup.  If they can find a shortstop this winter and keep the rotation healthy, they’ll contend.

Offseason Outlook: Minnesota Twins

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The Twins are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Their likely commitments for 2009:

C – Joe Mauer – $10.5MM
C – Mike Redmond – $950K (club option)
1B – Justin Morneau – $10.6MM
2B – Alexi Casilla – $400K
SS – Brendan Harris – $432K
3B – Brian Buscher – $400K
IF – Matt Tolbert – $400K
IF –
LF – Delmon Young – $700K
CF – Denard Span – $400K
RF – Michael Cuddyer – $6.75MM
OF – Carlos Gomez – $400K
DH – Jason Kubel – $1.3MM+

SP – Scott Baker – $423K
SP – Francisco Liriano – $400K
SP – Kevin Slowey – $400K
SP – Nick Blackburn – $400K
SP – Glen Perkins – $400K

RP – Joe Nathan – $11.25MM
RP – Jesse Crain – $1.7MM
RP – Matt Guerrier – $950K+
RP – Pat Neshek – $435K
RP – Boof Bonser – $433K
RP – Craig Breslow – $400K
RP – Jose Mijares – $400K

Other commitments: Mike Lamb – $3MM

That’s about $54MM committed, plus arbitration raises for Kubel and Guerrier.  The Twins were at about $57MM heading into the season, so they won’t have much to spend unless they raise payroll.  Payroll had been rising by more than 10% a year until ’08.  Maybe the Twins will return to the $70MM range.

The Twins could use more power in the lineup; third base is the most reasonable spot to upgrade.  The Twins could consider acquiring Hank Blalock (if he can play third), Melvin Mora, Edwin Encarnacion, Casey Blake, Joe Crede, Adrian Beltre, or Garrett Atkins.  Beltre is the best target, given his defensive prowess.  We’ll see whether the new Mariners GM has a reasonable asking price for one year of Beltre (ie, no one from the current Twins’ rotation).

Shortstop is another need, and the Twins may be targeting free agent Orlando Cabrera.  As I’ve said, I’d rather see them go for broke and sign Rafael Furcal.  More likely, they will just bring Nick Punto back.  But imagine Furcal and Beltre in ’09 instead of Buscher, Mike Lamb, Harris, Punto, and Adam Everett on the left side of the infield.  It’d be a huge improvement, but the Twins would have to be able to handle paying $25MM for their combined salary. 

I’d leave the pitching staff alone, as the rotation will ideally feature more Baker, Slowey, Perkins, and Liriano and no Livan Hernandez/Boof Bonser.  Bonser could even have positive trade value.

Offseason Outlook: Florida Marlins

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The Marlins are next in our Offseason Outlook series.  Here’s a look at the 2009 commitments.  By the way, comments and additional information are always welcome; I usually tweak these posts.

C – John Baker – $400K
C – Matt Treanor – $705K+
1B – Mike Jacobs – $400K+
2B – Dan Uggla – $417K+
SS – Hanley Ramirez – $5.5MM
3B – Jorge Cantu – $500K+
IF – Wes Helms – $950K
IF – Robert Andino – $400K
LF – Josh Willingham – $405K+
CF – Cody Ross – $400K+
RF – Jeremy Hermida – $400K+
OF – Alfredo Amezaga – $945K+
OF – Brett Carroll – $400K

SP – Ricky Nolasco – $400K+
SP – Josh Johnson – $400K
SP – Scott Olsen – $405K+
SP – Chris Volstad – $400K
SP – Andrew Miller – $1.35MM

RP – Kevin Gregg – $2.5MM+
RP – Matt Lindstrom – $400K
RP – Joe Nelson – $400K+
RP – Renyel Pinto – $400K
RP – Doug Waechter – $410K+
RP – Logan Kensing – $400K+
RP – Eulogio de la Cruz – $400K+

This team has about $20MM committed, but that’s before more than half the roster heads to arbitration.  Management won’t keep this team intact, though.

The Marlins are one of the intriguing storylines of the upcoming offseason.  The general sense is that they’ll shop Jacobs, Uggla, Willingham, Hermida, Olsen, and Gregg.  Those hitters accounted for more than a third of the team’s plate appearances this year.  The Marlins want to rebuild the team based on pitching, speed, and defense for ’09.

Greg Cote’s article indicates the Marlins may look to bring in a corner outfielder with speed and strong defense, using internal options for the new-look infield.  There’s been no indication he’s available, but could the Marlins inquire on Carl Crawford?  A more reasonable target could be San Francisco’s Randy Winn (either one would become the team’s highest-paid player, however).

The Marlins also figure to be in the market for young, affordable starting pitching.  I’m guessing they’ll target hard-throwing top prospects, perhaps with little or no MLB experience.  The Rockies have several pitchers who fit the bill.  You have to figure the Marlins call up the Giants as well.  With so many trade candidates, the Marlins’ suite should be hopping at the Winter Meetings in Vegas this year.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

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Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays.  Here’s the roster:

C – Rod Barajas – $2.5MM (club option)
C – Curtis Thigpen – $400K
1B – Lyle Overbay – $7MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $2.59MM (cleared for physical activity in October?)
SS – Marco Scutaro – $1.1MM
3B – Scott Rolen – $11MM
IF – John McDonald – $1.9MM
IF – Jose Bautista – $1.8MM+
IF/OF – Joe Inglett – $400K
LF – Travis Snider – $400K
CF – Vernon Wells – $10MM
RF – Alex Rios – $5.9MM
DH – Adam Lind – $400K

SP – Roy Halladay – $14.25MM
SP – Jesse Litsch – $400K
SP – Dustin McGowan – $404K (shoulder surgery July ’08)
SP – Casey Janssen – $404K (shoulder surgery March ’08)
SP – David Purcey – $400K

RP – B.J. Ryan – $10MM
RP/SP – Scott Downs – $3.75MM
RP – Jesse Carlson – $400K
RP – Jason Frasor – $1.125MM+
RP – Brian Tallet – $640K+
RP – Jeremy Accardo – $400K
RP – Brandon League – $400K+

Other bullpen candidates: Brian Wolfe – $400K, Shawn Camp – $412K+

Other rotation candidates: Scott Downs, Ricky Romero, Brett Cecil

I have the Jays with about $80MM committed plus arbitration raises to Bautista, Frasor, and League.  After that they’ll still be under $85MM.  The Blue Jays entered ’08 with a $98MM payroll, so they should have over $13MM+ to spend.  ’09 payroll will apparently be "appropriate, but not significantly higher" than in ’08.

Let’s start with the rotation.  Looks shaky, which shows you how quickly starting pitching depth can evaporate.  The Jays will need one of McGowan and Janssen to return successfully from shoulder surgery, or for Downs to convert successfully back to starting.  They’d look a lot better with another veteran starter.  But do the math – if payroll stays the same the Jays will barely be able to squeeze in A.J. Burnett at $15-18MM.  I don’t see Burnett remaining with the Jays.

The Blue Jays had a below-average offense in 2008.  Maybe full seasons of Wells, Lind, Hill, and Snider can remedy that.  The clearest position to upgrade via free agency is shortstop, where Rafael Furcal is tempting.  A DH type like Milton Bradley, Jason Giambi, or Raul Ibanez could work if the Jays don’t mind sitting Snider or Lind.

Toronto seems to have a surplus in the bullpen, though not as much if Downs goes to the rotation.  If he stays in the pen, J.P. Ricciardi should aggressively shop Ryan.  Ryan at two years, $20MM looks decent in a weak closer market.  That’d free up $10MM in ’09 payroll without weakening the team much.  With that the Jays might be able to afford Furcal plus a free agent starter.  Even then they’d need a lot of things to go right to snag a playoff spot in 2009.

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