Offseason Outlook

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By Tim Dierkes | October 13, 2009 at 11:10am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Athletics. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Kurt Suzuki – $410K
C – Landon Powell – $400K
1B – Daric Barton – $410K
2B – Mark Ellis – $5.5MM
SS – Cliff Pennington – $400K
3B – Eric Chavez – $12MM
IF – Gregorio Petit – $405K
LF – Scott Hairston – $1.25MM+
CF – Rajai Davis – $410K
RF – Ryan Sweeney – $410K
OF – Travis Buck – $410K
DH – Jack Cust – $2.8MM+
IF/OF – Eric Patterson – $405K

SP – Dallas Braden – $410K
SP – Brett Anderson – $400K
SP – Trevor Cahill – $400K
SP – Gio Gonzalez – $405K
SP – Vin Mazzaro – $400K

RP – Mike Wuertz – $1.1MM+
RP – Brad Ziegler – $405K
RP – Andrew Bailey – $400K
RP – Joey Devine – $410K+
RP – Craig Breslow – $422K
RP – Jerry Blevins – $405K
RP – Brad Kilby – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jack Cust, Santiago Casilla

Other commitments: Jason Giambi – $1.25MM

The A's have about $30.8MM committed before arbitration raises to Hairston, Cust, Wuertz, Casilla, and Devine. Cust and Casilla are non-tender candidates, so we'll estimate a mid-$30MM commitment for 2010. According to Cot's Baseball Contracts, the A's entered 2009 with a $62.3MM payroll. There hasn't been any indication that the A's plan to be big spenders this winter, but if payroll is held steady GM Billy Beane would have roughly $25MM to work with.

The 2009 A's ranked 11th in the AL with a .328 OBP and last with a .397 SLG. The offense had more of a middle-of-the-pack performance in the second half, with Davis, Sweeney, Cust, and Barton leading the way. Despite the improvement, the most obvious area for improvement in 2010 is the offense.

The rebuilding thing to do would be to give Barton one more chance to prove he can hit outside of the month of September. Powerful prospect Chris Carter is another option. But there would be little harm in adding a 2010 stopgap, someone like Russell Branyan, Carlos Delgado, or Nick Johnson.

Third base is a similar situation – Brett Wallace may not be ready yet, and the A's can't count on Chavez. Why not entertain signing Adrian Beltre or Troy Glaus? Shortstop frontrunner Pennington is also unproven, but the free agent market isn't terribly appealing.

With Davis and Sweeney taking outfield spots, DH and left field are other possible areas to upgrade. MLB.com's Mychael Urban feels Beane is leaning toward tendering a contract to Cust, whose 25 home runs led the team (his .417 SLG was less inspiring). If Beane decides to make a change, he can choose from plenty of free agent DH candidates for the same $3-4MM Cust would make. We haven't heard anything about Hairston being a non-tender candidate, though he was awful in Oakland.

The A's have a stacked bullpen, especially if Devine comes back strong. One veteran free agent play for the rotation would make sense, someone like Erik Bedard, Justin Duchscherer, Randy Johnson, or Ben Sheets.

Though Oakland's veteran additions for 2009 didn't work out, fans presumably appreciated them taking a shot at contention. I think Beane should make a similar attempt to supplement the club for 2010; he could again do so without harming the long-term health of the franchise.

Offseason Outlook: Oakland Athletics

By Cork Gaines | October 13, 2009 at 11:10am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Athletics. Their likely commitments for 2010:

SP – Dallas Braden – $410K
SP – Brett Anderson – $400K
SP – Trevor Cahill – $400K
SP – Gio Gonzalez – $405K
SP – Vin Mazzaro – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Jack Cust, Santiago Casilla

Other commitments: Jason Giambi – $1.25MM

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By Tim Dierkes | October 12, 2009 at 11:28am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C –
C – Raul Chavez – $500K+
1B – Lyle Overbay – $7MM
2B – Aaron Hill – $4MM
SS –
3B – Edwin Encarnacion – $4.75MM
IF – Joe Inglett – $411K
LF – Adam Lind – $412K
CF – Vernon Wells – $12.5MM
RF – Travis Snider – $401K
OF –
DH – Randy Ruiz – $400K
? –

SP – Roy Halladay – $15.75MM
SP – Ricky Romero – $400K
SP – Shaun Marcum – $405K+
SP – Marc Rzepczynski – $400K
SP – Scott Richmond – $402K

Other candidates: Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Brad Mills

Injured: Dustin McGowan, Jesse Litsch

RP – Scott Downs – $4MM
RP – Jason Frasor – $1.45MM+
RP – Brandon League – $640K+
RP – Jesse Carlson – $409K
RP – Casey Janssen – $414K
RP – Shawn Camp – $750K+
RP – Brian Tallet – $1.015MM+

Non-tender candidates: Jose Bautista, Jeremy Accardo

Other commitments: B.J. Ryan – $10MM

Assuming Bautista and one of Accardo/Tallet are non-tendered, the Blue Jays will have roughly $56MM committed before arbitration raises to Marcum, Frasor, League, Camp, and Chavez. Add in B.J. Ryan's salary and commitments are in the low $70MM range. The Jays entered 2009 with an $80.5MM payroll, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. New GM Alex Anthopoulos might have $10MM to spend, if the team holds payroll steady.

If Anthopoulos looks to contend in 2010, he's got his work cut out for him, especially if payroll isn't increased. With Rod Barajas and Marco Scutaro eligible for free agency, the team could lose its starters at catcher and shortstop. The Jays also lack a right fielder if they're unwilling to use Lind and Snider at the corners.

The Jays could attempt to improve upon Barajas behind the plate, though most other free agent catchers are equally questionable. Arizona's Chris Snyder would be an interesting target, if not for the $11.25MM remaining on his contract. Blue Jays catcher of the future J.P. Arencibia seemingly needs more seasoning after a .236/.284/.444 Triple A performance. Barajas hopes to return, but has yet to hold discussions with the Jays.

Shortstop will also be a difficult position to fill. Scutaro could be seeking $6-7MM annually coming off a career year. The free agent market is bleak here as well, with J.J. Hardy the obvious trade target. The Blue Jays might even have the starting pitching depth to pull off a deal with Milwaukee.

As always, outfield and DH options are plentiful on the free agent market. Anthopoulos can afford to wait until February and hunt for a bargain.

I've been operating under the assumption the Blue Jays will attempt to compete in 2010 and will therefore keep Halladay. If so, their rotation appears deep. But is it crazy to think the Jays could trade Doc and put themselves in a better position for 2010? Perhaps Anthopoulos could build the trade around a Major League-ready catcher or shortstop as well as a high-quality young starting pitcher.

Anthopoulos has admitted his team needs more than tweaking. Will the Blue Jays commit to a full-scale rebuilding plan? Will they raise payroll significantly and add players to complement Halladay, Lind, and Hill? It'd be disappointing to see the Jays choose something in-between.

Offseason Outlook: Toronto Blue Jays

By Cork Gaines | October 12, 2009 at 11:28am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Blue Jays. Their likely commitments for 2010:

SP – Roy Halladay – $15.75MM
SP – Ricky Romero – $400K
SP – Shaun Marcum – $405K+
SP – Marc Rzepczynski – $400K
SP – Scott Richmond – $402K

Other candidates: Brett Cecil, David Purcey, Brad Mills

Non-tender candidates: Jose Bautista, Jeremy Accardo

Other commitments: B.J. Ryan – $10MM

As always, outfield and DH options are plentiful on the free agent market. Anthopoulos can afford to wait until February and hunt for a bargain.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Cork Gaines | October 7, 2009 at 10:49am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Astros. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Humberto Quintero – $610K+
C – J.R. Towles – $402K
1B – Lance Berkman – $14.5MM
2B – Kaz Matsui – $5MM
SS – Tommy Manzella – $400K
3B – Chris Johnson – $400K
IF – Jeff Keppinger – $428K+
IF – Edwin Maysonet – $400K
LF – Carlos Lee – $18.5MM
CF – Michael Bourn – $435K+
RF – Hunter Pence – $439K+
OF –
? –

SP – Roy Oswalt – $15MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $2.6MM+
SP – Brian Moehler – $3MM
SP – Bud Norris – $400K
SP – Felipe Paulino – $405K

RP – Tim Byrdak – $1MM+
RP – Chris Sampson – $449K+
RP – Wesley Wright – $425K
RP – Jeff Fulchino – $400K
RP – Alberto Arias – $402K
RP – Sammy Gervacio – $400K
RP – Yorman Bazardo – $400K

Other commitments: Doug Brocail – $250K buyout

Non-tender candidates: Geoff Geary, Chris Coste, Sampson, Paronto

Assuming Brocail's option is declined, the Astros use rookies at the two open position player spots and on the left side of the infield, and Geary, Coste, and Paronto are non-tendered, they'd have $66.4MM committed before arbitration raises to Quintero, Keppinger, Bourn, Pence, Rodriguez, Byrdak, and Sampson. Bourn and Pence are first-time arbitration players and Rodriguez had a stellar year, so the raises will be significant. I'll put the Astros around $80MM committed. GM Ed Wade on how the team's 2010 payroll will compare to 2009, courtesy of MLB.com's Brian McTaggart:

"Our payroll is in all likelihood going to be lower than it was this year. It could be appreciably lower, but we don't know until we sit down and get the actual numbers."

If payroll is sliced to $90-95MM, Wade would have $10-15MM to spend.

Talk is that the Astros could use rookies Manzella (shortstop) and Johnson (third base) as starters in 2010. Manzella hit .289/.339/.417 in 580 Triple A plate appearances after struggling at that level last year. He is a defense-first player, likely an easy out at the plate. Meanwhile Johnson hit .281/.323/.461 in 412 Triple A plate appearances at age 24. Thrusting him into a big league role would be a huge gamble as well. If contending in 2010 is the plan, the Astros need to upgrade the left side of their infield. Tejada could return and play third base, but he'd presumably want at least $7-8MM a year. The third base market has other interesting names such as Adrian Beltre, Mark DeRosa, Chone Figgins, Troy Glaus, and Juan Uribe.

With Moehler retained, the Astros' 2010 rotation could be set. Paulino is not guaranteed a spot, but he deserves one. Even with poor rotation depth, I think the Astros would be better-served spending most of their cash on a shortstop and/or third baseman. They probably cannot afford to allocate more than a few million toward a veteran starter, similar to last year's Mike Hampton signing for $2MM.

Jose De Jesus Ortiz's latest article at the Houston Chronicle covers the Astros' unsettled bullpen situation. Closer Jose Valverde is probably gone, and I can see the Astros preferring not to risk an arbitration offer. They'd like to bring LaTroy Hawkins back, but after a 2.13 ERA season he'll want more than this year's $3.5MM base. He also may be too pricey to sign and/or risk an arbitration offer. Wade figures to sign a few free agent veteran relievers one way or another.

Despite the griping about Berkman, a .399 OBP and .509 SLG is a very good year. Lee, Bourn, and Pence are solid hitters as well, but the contributions of these four could be nullified if Wade surrounds them with easy outs. The rotation has sleeper potential, though it lacks depth. The bullpen is a question mark. This is an unfortunate time for the Astros to be cutting payroll, because they could contend with the right free agent additions.

Offseason Outlook: Houston Astros

By Tim Dierkes | October 7, 2009 at 10:49am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Astros. Their likely commitments for 2010:

SP – Roy Oswalt – $15MM
SP – Wandy Rodriguez – $2.6MM+
SP – Brian Moehler – $3MM
SP – Bud Norris – $400K
SP – Felipe Paulino – $405K

Other commitments: Doug Brocail – $250K buyout

Non-tender candidates: Geoff Geary, Chris Coste, Sampson, Paronto

"Our payroll is in all likelihood going to be lower than it was this year. It could be appreciably lower, but we don't know until we sit down and get the actual numbers."

If payroll is sliced to $90-95MM, Wade would have $10-15MM to spend.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Cork Gaines | September 30, 2009 at 1:39pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Padres. Their likely commitments for 2010:

C – Nick Hundley – $404K
C – Eliezer Alfonzo – $400K
1B – Adrian Gonzalez – $4.75MM
2B – David Eckstein – $1MM
SS – Everth Cabrera – $400K
3B – Kevin Kouzmanoff – $432K+
IF – Luis Rodriguez – $675K+
IF – Edgar Gonzalez – $407K
LF – Kyle Blanks – $400K
CF – Tony Gwynn Jr. – $405K
RF – Will Venable – $402K
OF – Chase Headley – $412K
OF – Drew Macias – $401K

SP – Kevin Correia – $750K+
SP – Chris Young – $6.25MM
SP – Mat Latos – $400K
SP – Clayton Richard – $405K
SP – Tim Stauffer – $400K

Other candidates: Aaron Poreda – $400K, Sean Gallagher – $410K, Cesar Ramos – $400K, Wade LeBlanc – $402K, Cesar Carrillo – $400K, Josh Geer – $402K

RP – Heath Bell – $1.255MM+
RP – Luke Gregerson
RP – Mike Adams – $415K
RP – Joe Thatcher – $404K
RP – Greg Burke – $400K
RP – Luis Perdomo – $400K
RP – Edward Mujica – $410K

Other candidates: Adam Russell – $405K, Ryan Webb – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Shawn Hill, Cha Seung Baek, Luis Rodriguez

The Padres have about $21.5MM committed before arbitration raises to Kouzmanoff, Rodriguez, Correia, and Bell. By my estimate those raises will put the team in the $30MM range for 2010. The Padres had an Opening Day payroll of $42.7MM, according to Cot's Baseball Contracts. New Padres CEO Jeff Moorad told MLB.com's Corey Brock in August that he's comfortable with a $70-80MM payroll, "but it's likely that it will take us a couple of years to get back to that level." While Moorad doesn't expect a huge free agent splash, Padres GM Kevin Towers should realistically have at least $15MM available this offseason.

Towers recently suggested to Bill Center of the San Diego Union-Tribune that the Padres could be a .500 team or even a playoff contender next year. The GM added, "I don't know if we need to do a lot this winter."

ESPN's Buster Olney and various Baseball Prospectus writers covered the Padres a few days ago, suggesting the team might add a veteran starter and outfielder despite Towers' comment. The article ponders trading Bell to free up the payroll space needed for bigger-name free agents like Chone Figgins, Randy Wolf, or John Lackey. I like the idea of trading Bell, but the salary relief would just be a side benefit. I'd trade him simply because he may be at peak value and Towers is skilled at building bullpens out of nothing. Problem is, there's a surplus of closers on the market this winter.

Towers has admitted interest in bringing Milton Bradley back, talking with ESPN's Jerry Crasnick. If the Cubs are desperate enough to cover $17MM of the $21MM left on his contract, it'd be as if Towers signed a potential .400 OBP bat to a two-year, $4MM deal. It's a chance worth taking, and it'd leave the Padres with a surplus of outfielders. The Padres are second-to-last in the NL with 3.96 runs scored per game this year, but a Gonzalez-Blanks-Bradley heart of the order could be decent. More silver lining: Headley, Venable, and Kouzmanoff have been offensive assets in the second half.

It'd be nice to have Wolf back, but even the classic San Diego discount might result in a $10MM salary. I'd rather entertain Lackey for $15MM. Either way, a quality veteran addition would push Richard to the fifth starter role and give the team surprisingly strong rotation depth months after trading Jake Peavy.

If Towers truly has a quiet winter and keeps the payroll around $30MM, it'd be a stretch to see the 2010 Padres contending. But with the right free agent strikes and perhaps a shrewd Bell trade, they'd have a chance.

Offseason Outlook: San Diego Padres

By Tim Dierkes | September 30, 2009 at 1:39pm CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Padres. Their likely commitments for 2010:

SP – Kevin Correia – $750K+
SP – Chris Young – $6.25MM
SP – Mat Latos – $400K
SP – Clayton Richard – $405K
SP – Tim Stauffer – $400K

Other candidates: Aaron Poreda – $400K, Sean Gallagher – $410K, Cesar Ramos – $400K, Wade LeBlanc – $402K, Cesar Carrillo – $400K, Josh Geer – $402K

Other candidates: Adam Russell – $405K, Ryan Webb – $400K

Non-tender candidates: Shawn Hill, Cha Seung Baek, Luis Rodriguez

Offseason Outlook: Arizona Diamondbacks

By Tim Dierkes | September 23, 2009 at 11:20am CDT

Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Diamondbacks. Their commitments for 2010:

C – Miguel Montero – $425K+
C – Chris Snyder – $4.75MM
1B – Brandon Allen – $400K
2B – Ryan Roberts – $400K
SS – Stephen Drew – $1.5MM+
3B – Mark Reynolds – $423K
IF – Augie Ojeda – $713K+
LF – Conor Jackson – $2.4MM+
CF – Chris Young – $3.25MM
RF – Justin Upton – $412K
OF – Eric Byrnes – $11MM
OF – Gerardo Parra – $400K
OF – Alex Romero – $404K

Other candidates: 1B – Josh Whitesell – $401K, 2B – Rusty Ryal – $400K, OF – Trent Oeltjen – $400K

SP – Dan Haren – $8.25MM
SP – Brandon Webb – $8.5MM (club option)
SP – Max Scherzer – $1.45MM+
SP – Billy Buckner – $403K
SP – Yusmeiro Petit – $412K

Other candidates: Jarrod Parker – $400K, Kevin Mulvey – $400K

RP – Chad Qualls – $2.535MM+
RP – Juan Gutierrez – $401K
RP – Esmerling Vasquez – $400K
RP – Clay Zavada – $400K
RP – Leo Rosales – $403K
RP – Blaine Boyer – $433K+
RP – Daniel Schlereth – $400K

Other commitments: Chad Tracy – $1MM buyout, Jon Garland – $1MM or $2.5MM

Non-tender candidates: Conor Jackson, Daniel Cabrera

D'Backs Managing General Partner Ken Kendrick told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic in June that the Major League payroll was around $76MM, and it will be "the same or more" in 2010. I have their '10 commitments at $52.5MM or $54MM, depending on what happens with Jon Garland. Then we have to add arbitration raises for Montero, Drew, Ojeda, Qualls, and Boyer, which Piecoro feels will cost an additional $5.5MM. In total the D'Backs have about $60MM committed for next year at the high end, operating under the assumptions that Reynolds falls short of Super Two status and Webb and Jackson are retained. The Diamondbacks would have at least $16MM to work with this winter.

If GM Josh Byrnes prefers to shake things up, he could decline Webb's option, non-tender Jackson, and trade Snyder. Those moves could slice $13.65MM from the '10 payroll, though it's a stretch to think Byrnes could find a team to take on Snyder's entire contract. Snyder's trade value is at a low point, so keeping him for now makes sense. I think Byrnes will ultimately exercise Webb's option. The December decision on Jackson will depend on his performance on the instructional league and in winter ball. Jackson is trying to come back from a nasty bout with Valley Fever, and if they keep him the D'Backs can attempt to cut his salary the maximum 20%.

The D'Backs are set with Drew and Reynolds on the left side of the infield, while Allen and Roberts are unproven on the right. Roberts has seen lefties a disproportionate 37% of the time, a big contributor to his strong rookie season. Allen showed huge power in his Triple A Reno stint, but hasn't done much otherwise this year. Theoretically a healthy Jackson could move back to first base and the D'Backs could use Parra and/or Byrnes in left field. If Jackson is non-tendered, it would be reasonable for the D'Backs to use that money to sign a left fielder.

Montero, Reynolds, and Upton had strong years, and Drew is a solid bat at short. With question marks at four other positions, look for the D'Backs to consider importing at least one position player (Piecoro guesses it'll be a second baseman).

Even if Webb is retained, Byrnes will need to sign a starting pitcher. Byrnes doesn't necessarily need to go cheap here; he could fit $15MM for John Lackey into the budget. But realistically he'll look to the second tier, with names like Randy Wolf, Joel Pineiro, and Carl Pavano. That'd leave a few million for a veteran reliever.

Byrnes' moves could mirror last offseason's (Scott Schoeneweis acquired and Felipe Lopez signed to a $3.5MM deal in December, Jon Garland signed for $7.25MM in January, and Tom Gordon signed for $500K in February). We seem to say this annually about the Diamondbacks, but with the right free agents and few more young hitters maturing, they can compete.

Offseason Outlook: New York Mets

By Tim Dierkes | September 17, 2009 at 11:00pm CDT

SATURDAY: Several readers have pointed out a major error in the original post. The Mets did not enter the '09 season at $149.4MM, but rather something closer to $139.6MM. Assuming a steady payroll, they would have $25-30MM to spend. They'll have to skimp on some of the needs listed, unless Omar Minaya can swing a clever trade or two.

THURSDAY: Next up in our Offseason Outlook series, the Mets. Their commitments for 2010:

C – Omir Santos – $400K
C – Josh Thole – $400K
1B – Daniel Murphy – $401K
2B – Luis Castillo – $6MM
SS – Jose Reyes – $9MM
3B – David Wright – $10MM
IF – Anderson Hernandez – $400K
LF – Angel Pagan – $575K+
CF – Carlos Beltran – $18.5MM
RF – Jeff Francoeur – $3.375MM+
OF – Cory Sullivan – $600K+
OF – Jeremy Reed – $925K+
1B/LF – Nick Evans – $403K or OF – Fernando Martinez – $400K

SP – Johan Santana – $21MM
SP – John Maine – $2.6MM+
SP – Mike Pelfrey – $1.3125MM
SP – Oliver Perez – $12MM
SP – Jon Niese – $400K

Other candidates: Fernando Nieve – $414K, Tim Redding – $2.25MM+

RP – Francisco Rodriguez – $11.5MM
RP – Pedro Feliciano – $1.6125MM+
RP – Sean Green – $471K+
RP – Pat Misch – $402K
RP – Bobby Parnell – $400K
RP – Brian Stokes – $410K
RP – Carlos Muniz – $402K

Other commitments: J.J. Putz – $1MM buyout

Non-tender candidates: Redding, Maine, Nelson Figueroa

That puts the Mets at about $105MM, plus arbitration raises to Pagan, Francoeur, Sullivan, Reed, Maine, Feliciano, Green, and Redding (some of whom will likely be non-tendered). The Mets are in the $110MM ballpark after entering the '09 season with a $149.4MM payroll. Omar Minaya should have $35-40MM to patch his team's many holes.

The Mets have a strong core of superstars, and their collective health almost has to improve in 2010. I don't see the logic behind trading Reyes, Wright, Beltran, or Santana.

The Mets need a catcher, first baseman, and corner outfielder. They may be competing with the Braves for certain first base and left field candidates. But the Mets also need at least one solid starting pitcher as well as bullpen help.

The catching market is weak, but pairing someone like Gregg Zaun with Thole makes sense. First base presents more options. Who's a bigger health risk – Carlos Delgado at 38 or Nick Johnson at 31? Johnson's .428 OBP is hard to ignore.

The market is flush with left fielders. With so many needs, I have a hard time seeing Minaya take a run at Manny Ramirez, Matt Holliday, or Jason Bay. Johnny Damon, Bobby Abreu, and Jermaine Dye are more reasonable targets. With Castillo, Johnson, Wright, Beltran, and Abreu, the Mets would potentially have five .400 OBP players. Zaun (assuming the Rays let him go), Johnson, and Abreu could be signed for less than $25MM in 2010 salaries.

With the remaining money I'd attempt to lure Randy Wolf from the West Coast while also pursuing Erik Bedard, Brad Penny, Randy Johnson, Carl Pavano, or Ben Sheets for a one-year deal. Admittedly there wouldn't be much left to spend on relievers, but decent arms can be found for a million or two.

Certainly the Mets could use top free agents like Holliday and John Lackey. However, the available money would be better used to acquire four or five sensible free agents. Let's hear your recommendations in the comments.

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