David Wright Shut Down For Six To Eight Weeks
11:04am: The news on Wright is considerably worse than the prior four-to-six week barometer, as the Mets have announced that he’ll rest for six to eight weeks without any form of baseball activity. Following such a lengthy layoff, he’ll of course need to embark on a minor league rehab assignment, which would mean that an absence of more than two months is certainly in play. Wright has been placed on the 15-day disabled list, with Matt Reynolds recalled from Triple-A to fill his roster spot.
JUNE 3, 7:44am: Wright will be out for at least four to six weeks, tweets Rosenthal.
JUNE 2, 9:43pm: Wright will not undergo surgery on his neck, at least “in the short term,” but it remains an option in the future, according to Rubin (via Twitter).
8:11pm: Mets third baseman David Wright is expected to miss an “extended period” with his recently-diagnosed neck ailment, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). It appears that the club will call up Matt Reynolds to take his roster spot, per Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com (via Twitter).
Wright had received a cortisone shot in hopes of avoiding a DL stint for a herniated disk, but that evidently did not resolve the issue. It remains to be seen whether surgery will be required. The veteran was already attempting to play through a significant back condition that required constant care and preparation. Today’s news raises renewed concerns for a club that’s already dealing with the absence of first baseman Lucas Duda (who has been replaced for the time being with James Loney).
The 33-year-old Wright had been a sturdy contributor out of the gates this year, even if he is no longer able to match his prime-level production. Over 164 plate appearances, he’s carrying a .226/.350/.438 bating line and has swatted seven long balls. On the other hand, defensive metrics have not been kind to the one-time star.
Wright’s health was always a major question for New York, and it seems that some of the worst fears could be coming to fruition. The club does have some depth built around him, starting with Wilmer Flores and extending into a minor league system with numerous infielders on the rise. But none of the team’s internal options have anything approaching Wright’s record of success in the majors.
Truth be told, the Mets had little choice but to roll the dice on Wright, who’s owed $20MM this year and another $67MM over the four seasons to come. Adding infielders Asdrubal Cabrera and Neil Walker helped boost the overall talent level in the infield, but losing both Wright and Duda will strain the organization’s resources.
6 Pending Free Agents Who Improved Their Stock In May
While the usual “it’s still early” caveat goes without saying, some teams have already played a third of their schedule. We’re quickly approaching that point when a good start morphs into simply a good season altogether. Looking at the lists of position players and pitchers (big tip of the hat to Fangraphs) who are eligible to hit the open market after the 2016 season, some notable names have already done a lot to position themselves for big multi-year deals this winter. This post won’t focus as much on the upper-tier players who may sit atop the free agent power rankings, but rather the lower- or middle-tier names coming into this season looking to greatly improve their stock.
Jeremy Hellickson, Phillies: A thin starting pitching class became even thinner after Stephen Strasburg signed an extension with the Nationals, which opens the door for several free agent starters to score larger-than-expected contracts. For instance, look at the 2011 AL Rookie of the Year enjoying a strong rebound season in Philadelphia. Hellickson posted a 3.58 ERA, 8.84 K/9 and 4.63 K/9 rate in 37 2/3 IP last month and delivered similar numbers in April. ERA predictors xFIP (3.37) and SIERA (3.39) actually have an even brighter view of the righty’s season, in a reversal of Hellickson’s early seasons with Tampa Bay when he was posting low ERAs but worrisome peripherals. Hellickson is on pace for career-bests in strikeout and walk rates, and he’s performing well despite an ungainly 16.4% home run rate. You wouldn’t have pegged Hellickson as a qualifying offer candidate prior to the season, though now it’s not out of the realm of possibility…unless, of course, he gets traded, though that could depend on whether or not the surprisingly competitive Phillies decide to take a run at a wild card.
Aaron Hill, Brewers: After two mediocre seasons in Arizona and a rough April in Milwaukee, it looked like Hill’s career simply might have been winding down in his age-34 season. Then, Hill hit .357/.455/.583 with five homers and 14 runs in 100 PA over a scalding-hot May, posting the same fWAR (+1.4) over the month as the likes of David Ortiz, Kris Bryant and Mookie Betts. No doubt the .385 BABIP helped Hill post those big numbers, though when you’re a mid-30’s veteran, even one excellent month could be the difference between your next contract being a Major League or minor league deal. If Hill even remotely approaches similar production over the next six weeks, he would stand out as a trade deadline chip for contenders looking for infield help.
Steve Pearce, Rays: Speaking of veteran infielders coming off a big month, Pearce has started games at first, second and third for Tampa this season, while crushing seven homers and hitting .317/.406/.622 over 96 PA in May. Pearce hit the open market last winter with a rather hard-to-evaluate stock, though with another strong season under his belt, he should finally be able to command a multi-year deal. Pearce still has lopsided splits (.736 OPS vs. righty pitching, 1.297 OPS vs. lefties) but a player who can provide that kind of power in a ballpark that typically suppresses right-handed power (i.e. Tropicana Field) will turn heads.
Doug Fister, Astros: The right-hander was so bad in April that MLBTR’s Steve Adams cited him as one of the free agents who had hurt their stock with a poor showing in the opening month. Like Hill, however, Fister righted the ship in May, posting a 2.84 ERA and 57.4% grounder rate over 38 innings. ERA indicators weren’t as kind (4.12 FIP, 4.06 xFIP, 4.18 SIERA) in May, but even in a couple of his prime seasons, Fister’s low-strikeout, grounder-heavy attack led him to outperform the advanced metrics. Fister still has a couple of warning signs hanging over him, namely a 3.3 BB/9 that would be a career high over a full season and an average fastball that clocks in at 86.4 mph, only a touch higher than his FB velocity during his rough 2015 season. Still, given how poor Fister looked in April, any sort of improvement is welcome.
Logan Morrison, Rays: How bad was Morrison’s April? Put it this way…he posted an astonishing negative-22 wRC+ over 64 PA in April, meaning he created 122% fewer runs than a league-average player. Just as quickly, however, Morrison went from hitting like Bob Friend to hitting like Mike Trout, thanks to a .351/.455/.486 slash line (and a 167 wRC+) over 88 PA in May. The month-to-month gulf was so enormous that it’s somewhat hard to predict what’s next for Morrison, though his big May provides some hope that he can still emerge as a post-hype prospect for Tampa and land a solid contract in the offseason.
Chase Utley, Dodgers: Utley hit .281/.363/.416 with three homers and 18 runs scored over 102 May plate appearances, making it back-to-back solid months for the veteran second baseman. While Utley’s .336 BABIP hints that his revival may not last, he’s still on pace for a big improvement over his poor 2015 campaign. I’m going to go out on a limb and guess that the Mets won’t be bidding on Utley in this winter’s free agent market, though he’ll find plenty of interest amongst the other 29 teams if he chooses to keep playing into his age-38 season.
2017 MLB Free Agent Power Rankings
During the month of May, we saw a pair of key players decide to forgo free agency. Nationals starter Stephen Strasburg, by far the best projected free agent from the 2016-17 class, signed a seven-year, $175MM extension that includes heavy deferrals and two opt-out clauses. I believe Strasburg left at least $50MM on the table in making the surprising decision to sign. With Strasburg off the market, we’re unlikely to see any $100MM pitchers this winter after four hurlers reached that mark last offseason.
Francisco Cervelli, projected to be the best catcher on the 2016-17 free agent market, signed a three-year, $31MM extension with the Pirates. Cervelli may have left $20MM or more on the table in signing his new deal.
So, we’ve lost the #1 and #10 free agents on last month’s power rankings. Below, I’ve ranked the remaining projected free agents by earning power. You can view the full list of 2016-17 MLB free agents here.
1. Yoenis Cespedes. With 15 home runs in his first 193 plate appearances, Cespedes has a good chance to reach 40 for the first time. He’s increasingly likely to opt out of the remaining two years and $47.5MM on his contract with the Mets. The 30-year-old slugger could be the only free agent to reach $100MM this offseason, underlining the lack of relatively young high-end players on the market.
2. Jose Bautista. The most noteworthy part of Bautista’s May was his run-in with Rougned Odor‘s fist. Bautista served a one-game suspension for his role in the ensuing brawl. At the moment, I’m projecting a four-year deal in the $100MM range for Bautista, who turns 36 in October.
3. Josh Reddick. Reddick fractured his left thumb during a headfirst slide on May 19th. While the injury will not require surgery, he’s expected to be out until late June. Reddick was swinging a hot bat leading up to the injury. Assuming he continues to produce upon his return, I don’t see the injury affecting his earning power. I can see a five-year deal approaching $100MM.
4. Kenley Jansen. Not much has changed with Jansen, who has a shot at a five-year deal. It seems likely that a reliever will end up with the largest pitching contract of the offseason.
5. Edwin Encarnacion. Encarnacion recovered from an ugly April to post a solid May. He could wind up with a three-year deal with a salary in excess of $20MM.
6. Dexter Fowler. Fowler continued to rake in the month of May, hitting .295/.403/.476. He currently ranks third among position players with 3.2 wins above replacement, after Mike Trout and Manny Machado. I’m projecting a four-year deal in excess of $60MM for Fowler, after he was left with a disappointing one-year deal last winter.
7. Aroldis Chapman. Chapman made his Yankees debut on May 9th after serving a 30-day suspension for a domestic violence incident. He’s looked as dominant as ever, and a large free agent payday is in the offing. The question is whether Chapman can get a five-year deal, in light of that October incident.
8. Neil Walker. Walker posted another solid month for the Mets. In a thin market, perhaps he could land a Chase Headley contract (four years, $52MM) if he keeps going strong.
9. Rich Hill. Hill now has 11 starts under his belt this year with a 2.25 ERA and 10.4 K/9. The southpaw, who turns 37 next March, has come a long way in the last year. He appears to have a good chance at a four-win season, which generally seemed impossible for most of the last decade. Despite Hill’s age, I think a three-year deal in excess of $40MM is within reach.
10. Mark Trumbo. After another big power month, Trumbo is now tied for third in the AL with 15 home runs. If he winds up near 40 home runs this year, a strong three-year deal becomes possible. However, his value is hurt by his defensive limitations.
Carlos Gomez, who was ranked fifth on this list last month, has dropped out of the top ten. The hope is that he’ll finally start hitting after serving a May DL stint for bruised ribs. However, at this point he’s a candidate to take a one-year deal to rebuild value.
Four players were very close to making the list: catchers Matt Wieters and Wilson Ramos, and outfielders Michael Saunders and Ian Desmond. Each of them appears to be setting up for a three-year deal at this point. If four years starts to seem likely for any of these players, they’ll have a spot in the top ten.
NL Central Notes: Rondon, Cubs, Vogelsong, Reds
Cubs closer Hector Rondon has emerged from the brink of retirement to hold down a critical role on a high-performing club, as Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports writes. His relatively meager saves totals belie his effectiveness and importance to a team that has had more than its share of blowout wins this year. After nearly giving up baseball with the Indians, Rondon was plucked in the Rule 5 draft after some savvy assessment by coach Franklin Font. It’s an interesting read on an interesting player.
Elsewhere in the NL Central …
- The Cubs are doing their homework on possible trade targets, with a particular focus on pitching depth, Bruce Levine of 670thescore.com reports. According to the report, a quality left-handed reliever could be at or near the top of the list, though general manager Jed Hoyer says that the club remains confident in Travis Wood and Clayton Richard. The GM also cautions that it’s too early to expect any movement. “It’s still really early,” he said. “We are doing our due diligence. We are working hard and scouting the players that may become available. It is still exceptionally early in the trade season for anything.”
- Pirates righty Ryan Vogelsong had surgery to address multiple facial fractures suffered when he was hit by a pitch in his last start, as Stephen Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette reports. According to the club, his rehab timeline will be addressed once the swelling goes down, with more information expected to be forthcoming next week.
- The Reds are gearing up for what could prove to be an interesting draft, as MLB.com’s Mark Sheldon reports. Cincinnati sports the highest overall draft bonus pool in the league, and scouting director Chris Buckley says that could open some opportunities to “get more creative throughout the entire draft — not just early in the draft but later in the draft.” Signability remains a key consideration, he noted. President of baseball operations Walt Jocketty also cited the benefits of the large pool, saying the team aims to “improve the depth and inventory” of the farm.
Nationals To Promote Trea Turner
The Nationals will call up top position-player prospect Trea Turner, as the Talk Nats blog first reported on Twitter. He’ll join the club tomorrow, per MLB.com’s Bill Ladson (via Twitter), likely taking the active roster spot of first baseman Ryan Zimmerman, who is going on paternity leave.
Given that Zimmerman will only miss a few days, it’s not yet clear how long Turner will be up. It could be that he’ll just fill in temporarily at second base, with Daniel Murphy shifting to first, as MLB.com’s Jamal Collier suggests on Twitter.
But it’s certainly possible that this represents the beginning of Turner’s first full trial in D.C., which could have important repercussions for this season and the future. The Nats have relied on a combination of Danny Espinosa and Stephen Drew at shortstop. While that makes for a solid defensive pairing, the two have combined for an ugly .194/.281/.347 batting line on the year.
Turner, meanwhile, has improved upon the already-strong results he posted in his first attempt at Triple-A in 2015. He only managed nine hits in 44 plate appearances at the big league level in his brief call-up last year, but has put to rest any questions as to whether he’s due for another chance. Over 222 plate appearances at Syracuse in 2016, Turner owns a .310/.376/.472 batting line with three home runs and 17 steals.
The division-leading Nats aren’t exactly in need of a boost, as the club is off to a promising 33-and-21 start. But going to Turner now would allow the organization to get a firm idea of its middle infield mix in advance of the summer trade deadline. Were it not for the presence of Turner, the Nationals could well be considered a plausible buyer at the shortstop position over the next two months.
It’s important to note, too, that service time is no longer a compelling consideration for the team. After entering the season with 45 days on his ledger, Turner will not be able to tally a full season even if he remains active the rest of the way. That means that Washington can deploy him in the majors for all of this season while still controlling him through the 2022 campaign.
Turner came to D.C. along with Joe Ross in the three-team deal that sent Wil Myers to the Padres from the Rays, who in turn picked up Steven Souza from the Nats (among other players changing hands). With Ross providing strong contributions at the game’s highest level in his age-22 and 23 seasons, the deal already looks good from Washington’s perspective. If Turner successfully transitions to the majors, it could prove to be a coup.
Heyman’s Latest: Harper/Machado, Braves, Shields, Odor
Bryce Harper of the Nationals and Manny Machado of the Orioles are young, controlled superstars who look like highly appealing extension targets. Of course, that also makes them incredibly expensive potential candidates for their respective teams, as Jon Heyman explains at todaysknuckleball.com. According to Heyman, there’s some suggestion that it could take more than $500MM over an unprecedented term to keep Harper from heading to the open market after the 2018 season. “We have not to this point had any substantive negotiations about a long-term deal,” Nats GM Mike Rizzo said with regard to Harper. Rizzo did suggest that the team has serious interest in doing so, however. “They know what our intentions are,” he said. “My intention is always to get him on a long-term deal that will make him a National for life. At a very young age he performed admirably, not only admirably, but the year he had was historic. It’s going to be a unique deal. We have a very unique player.”
As for Machado, he might not be far behind in value if the O’s hope to reach a deal. Intriguingly, the report suggests that Baltimore very nearly agreed to a seven-year contract with its best player at some point in recent years. That would have certainly proved a bargain given Machado’s increasingly outstanding performance, though the terms of the prospective pact are not known. (Neither is it clear what caused negotiations to fall apart.)
Here’s more from Heyman:
- “A few teams” have checked in with the Braves on Nick Markakis, Heyman writes, but his recent skid at the plate hasn’t helped out his trade value much. Kelly Johnson, too, could become available, though Heyman adds that GM John Coppolella said of Julio Teheran that he expects the right-hander “to be on the team a long time.” From my vantage point, Markakis doesn’t have much value at $11MM per season and with apparently evaporated power. Even if the Braves were to pay down half of his remaining salary through the 2018 season, he hasn’t been productive enough to bring in a meaningful prospect return.
- The Orioles talked to the Padres about James Shields in Spring Training but weren’t willing to cover even half of the salary owed to Shields at the time. Shields has two years and $44MM remaining on his contract following the 2016 season (if he doesn’t opt out), and he’s earning $21MM this season as well. Shields has grabbed headlines recently, having been prominently featured in trade rumors over the weekend and then suffering a 10-run meltdown earlier this week, which the team’s executive chairman publicly referred to as “an embarrassment.”
- The Red Sox, too, have considered Shields but are waiting to see how Eduardo Rodriguez performs upon returning from the disabled list (so far, so good). The White Sox, meanwhile, would want the Padres to pay down a significant portion of the $57MM that remains on Shields’ contract (again, barring an opt out). Heyman writes that a source indicated that shortstop prospect Tim Anderson wouldn’t be involved in talks, though that doesn’t strike me as a surprising revelation; even with half of his contract paid down, that would seem like an overpay on Chicago’s behalf. On a somewhat similar vein, Heyman adds that the Padres approached the Tigers about Shields, but Detroit had no interest in parting with any of Michael Fulmer, Daniel Norris or Matt Boyd in a potential deal.
- Shortly after the Rockies acquired Jose Reyes, the Yankees were willing to part with shortstop prospect Jorge Mateo and pay half of the $22MM that is owed to Reyes annually through the 2017 season, Heyman hears.
- The jobs of Tigers manager Brad Ausmus and Twins manager Paul Molitor are safe, Heyman writes, though he adds that Detroit GM Al Avila has privately told Ausmus to stop discussing his job security (or lack thereof) with the media, as the situation doesn’t need any extra fuel.
- Greg Holland could take the mound in August, per Heyman, and he may wait until that point before deciding on a team. Both the Royals and Braves have shown interest to this point, he adds.
- The Athletics “may be a favorite” for Cuban second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez, writes Heyman, who also notes that incumbent second baseman Jed Lowrie could help a number of clubs on the trade market. The Padres, too, are said to be considering Fernandez, he adds.
- Rougned Odor‘s agent and Rangers GM Jon Daniels recently rekindled extension talks, and Heyman notes that the team heaped praise onto Odor during his appeal hearing during which his suspension for punching Jose Bautista was dropped from eight games to seven games. His suspension has also given Jurickson Profar a chance to play, and Heyman writes that the former top prospect could be a trade candidate now that he’s healthy. Sticking with the Rangers, Heyman adds that the Phillies lobbied hard for Texas to include Nomar Mazara in last year’s Cole Hamels blockbuster, but Daniels refused to give him up.
- The Nationals talked with the D-backs in the offseason about Gio Gonzalez, but Arizona wouldn’t part with Ender Inciarte or David Peralta in the prospective trade. Heyman writes that the Nats spoke to a few teams about Gonzalez, including the Marlins. However, Miami wasn’t keen on surrendering Christian Yelich.
Jeremy Guthrie Released By Padres After Exercising Opt-Out
THURSDAY: Guthrie has been given his release, Dennis Lin of the San Diego Union-Tribune reports on Twitter.
WEDNESDAY: Veteran righty Jeremy Guthrie will exercise an opt-out clause in his deal with the Padres, according to Ken Rosenthal of FOX Sports (via Twitter). He expects to hit the market soon, though the precise timeline is unclear.
Guthrie, 37, has thrown sixty innings at Triple-A on the year. He owns a 6.60 ERA with 5.6 K/9 against 2.8 BB/9 over that span. Guthrie has generally been trended up of late, though the overall picture doesn’t inspire much confidence.
It remains to be seen whether Guthrie can make it back to the majors for the 13th consecutive year, but other teams will certainly give consideration in light of his track record of large innings tallies. He has topped 200 innings in five of the last seven seasons and owns a 4.37 lifetime ERA over 1,764 2/3 total frames. Last year, though, was his worst complete season in the majors, as he allowed just under six earned runs per game for the Royals.
MLBTR Live Chat: 6/2/16
Click here to read a transcript of today’s live chat with host Jeff Todd.
Phillies Designate David Lough For Assignment
The Phillies announced today that they’ve activated Cody Asche from the 15-day disabled list and designated outfielder David Lough for assignment to clear a spot for Asche on the active roster. Additionally, the team activated southpaw Mario Hollands, who underwent Tommy John surgery in April 2015, from the disabled list and optioned him to Triple-A Lehigh Valley.
Lough, 30, inked a minor league contract with the Phils this offseason, and while he didn’t make the team out of Spring Training, he had his contract selected to the big league roster in mid-April Since April 18, Lough has appeared in 30 games for Philadelphia, batting .239/.342/.313 in 79 plate appearances. He’s long graded out as a defensively sound corner outfielder, and that was again the case in this season’s limited sample of innings.
The Phillies will have 10 days to trade, release or outright Lough, although if he clears outright waivers he’d have the option to reject an assignment to the minors in favor of free agency due to the fact that he’s been outrighted in the past. Lough is a career .254/.300/.371 hitter whose best seasons came in 2013-14 while serving as a platoon outfielder for the Royals and Orioles. He batted a combined .272/.310/.403 during that time, with the vast majority of his at-bats coming against right-handed pitching.
Opt-Outs: Joe Thatcher, Hak-Ju Lee
June 1 serves as a common date for opt-out clauses in minor league contracts, and as such, there figure to be a few players on the verge of free agency. It’s already been reported that Travis Snider won’t opt out of his deal with the Royals, and we’ll keep track of the rest of the day’s opt-out decisions in this post…
- Veteran lefty Joe Thatcher has exercised the opt-out clause in his minor league deal with the Dodgers, tweets SB Nation’s Chris Cotillo. The Dodgers have until Saturday to add him to the big league roster or he’ll be a free agent. Thatcher, 34, spent the 2015 season with the Astros and totaled 22 2/3 innings of 3.18 ERA ball with a 26-to-12 K/BB ratio. Thatcher didn’t display his typical excellence against lefties, yielding a .241/.362/.321 batting line to same-handed opponents, but he’s an overall line of .232/.298/.348 to lefty batters in his big league career. He has a 3.86 ERA with a 20-to-5 K/BB ratio in 14 innings at the Triple-A level thus far in 2016 and could get a look elsewhere as a situational lefty if the Dodgers elect not to add him to the big league bullpen.
- Shortstop Hak-Ju Lee has also exercised a June 1 opt-out in his minors deal with the Giants, MLBTR has learned (Twitter link). Lee, a former Top 100 prospect with the Cubs and Rays, is hitting .263/.343/.378 with three homers and four steals in 45 games/178 plate appearances with Triple-A Sacramento this season. San Francisco has 72 hours to add him to the active roster. The 25-year-old has played shortstop almost exclusively throughout his career but has logged a pair of games at third base this season. Lee’s career was slowed by a collision at second base in 2013 that left him with multiple torn ligaments in his left knee, and he hasn’t topped 100 games in a season since 2012 (though he’s healthy and on pace to do so in 2016). Baseball America wrote prior to the 2015 season that Lee possessed above-average range, a plus throwing arm and soft hands at shortstop.