Draft Signings: Josh Rogers
Here are the day’s notable draft signings:
- The Yankees have signed 11th rounder Josh Rogers to a $485K deal, according to MLB.com’s Jim Callis (Twitter links). Devan Fink was first on the precise dollar value. Rogers, a lefty out of Louisville, placed inside Baseball America’s top 500 list at #342. To sign the draft-eligible sophomore, New York was forced to commit $385K against its overall pool. (For players taken in the 11th round or later, the amount of any bonus over $100K counts against a team’s draft allocation.) Per another Callis tweet, that leaves the club capable of paying first-round pick James Kaprielian up to a $2,676,450 bonus before it would be forced to sacrifice a future selection.
Amaro On Papelbon, Harang, Hamels, Utley
Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. discussed his team’s trade deadline situation in an appearance on the WIP Morning Show (relayed by CSNPhilly.com’s Corey Seidman). Broadly, Amaro said that he has had “great dialogue with a lot of clubs on several fronts” and expressed confidence in “get[ting] some things done.”
The first and most obvious topic of conversation was closer Jonathan Papelbon, who yesterday aired his view that Philadelphia needs to make a decision on dealing him. Amaro praised the veteran reliever as a competitor and excellent pitcher, but said that “he doesn’t know anything about the front office.”
Regarding Papelbon’s market, Amaro indicated that he sees plenty of opportunity to strike a trade. “There’s live discussions going on right now regarding Pap,” said Amaro. “I do believe that there’s enough of a market that we can probably get something done. But again, I don’t necessarily believe in ‘probably.’ … There’s a lot of clubs that are interested in a lot of our players and we have to sort through it and make the right deals.”
In the course of addressing Papelbon’s comments, which touched upon the decisionmaking process of the front office’s highest levels, Amaro said that there was internal clarity about how deadline decisions would be handled. Namely, current president Pat Gillick holds final authority, with incoming replacement Andy MacPhail serving more of an advisory function at present.
“I’m the GM and Pat is my boss,” Amaro explained. “As in all these deals, particularly ones that are as complicated and have so much money involved, these are all discussions that we’ve had. … It’s something that’s discussed, not just with me, but also with my boss. And that’s the same structure that we have right now. Right now, Andy is part of the decision-making process, but only in so much that he’s an observer and someone who’s going to give us his opinion. Really, Pat is the one who ultimately will make the ultimate decisions.”
Even as he gave indications that Papelbon could indeed be on the move, as is widely expected, Amaro downplayed the possibility of receiving value for starter Aaron Harang. “As far as Aaron Harang is concerned,” said Amaro, “he had a foot problem and he’s dealing with an injury so you can’t really trade a guy that’s got an injury. Frankly, there was no real market for him prior to him getting injured.”
Of course, Philly’s biggest trade chip remains lefty Cole Hamels. Amaro said he was not concerned with the fact that the staff ace had suffered a rough outing in his most recent start, saying that “people know what he is.”
The embattled Phillies GM also touched upon his recent comments indicating that long-time second baseman Chase Utley has lost his starting role. Amaro said he did not regret “being straight and honest” on the topic, and added that he expects the veteran to “get opportunities to play” once he returns to health. As to whether there was any possibility of Utley calling it quits, Amaro made his own view clear: “No, he’s absolutely, unequivocally not going to [retire]. He’s got plenty in the tank left.”
Poll: Which Teams Should Be Deadline Sellers?
The dichotomy between buying and selling may no longer hold quite the same meaning that it once did. We saw numerous deals last summer featuring major league players heading in both directions — the David Price, Jon Lester, and John Lackey deals among them. And it’s been widely observed that there are few clubs completely out of contention heading into this year’s deadline.
That could mean that the market will feature more reshuffling of rosters than true selling situations. But with a relative dearth of impact players available for prospect talent, there could also be enticing opportunities for teams willing to give up on the current season to improve in the future.
After all, it’s not as if such deals have disappeared completely. Jeff Samardzija has twice been moved for controllable talent, and could be again. The Red Sox (Andrew Miller to Orioles) and Rangers (Joakim Soria to Tigers) picked up quality young arms last summer, while the Diamondbacks got power-hitting prospect Peter O’Brien in exchange for Martin Prado. Infielder Dee Gordon brought back players who lacked significant major league experience. The Braves received prospects in return for Justin Upton and Craig Kimbrel, while the Phillies acquired minor league depth in deals involving Jimmy Rollins and Marlon Byrd.
All said, then, it’s quite possible that some teams will continue to profile as sellers in the traditional sense. Only a few are obvious, with the Phillies, Brewers, and perhaps the Braves (who’ve already moved most of their short-term assets) leading the way.
Other organizations have somewhat less clarity. Some of those — the Orioles, Blue Jays, and Tigers come to mind — have seemingly made clear that they have no such intentions, at least at present. We’ll define a true “seller” as a team that is looking to acquire pre-major league talent in exchange for veteran assets.
With that understanding, and excluding the teams already mentioned above, let’s see what the consensus is among MLBTR readers. Which of the following teams should consider themselves traditional trade deadline sellers over the rest of the month of July? Pick as many as you think apply.
The original version of the poll mistakenly did not permit multiple selections. Apologies to all those who voted.
Which Teams Should Be Traditional Deadline Sellers?
-
Reds 15% (8,392)
-
Rockies 12% (6,812)
-
Padres 12% (6,520)
-
Athletics 11% (6,143)
-
White Sox 11% (6,012)
-
Marlins 11% (5,923)
-
Red Sox 8% (4,430)
-
Diamondbacks 7% (3,930)
-
Mariners 6% (3,147)
-
Indians 4% (2,454)
-
Rangers 4% (2,146)
Total votes: 55,909
Orioles Will Not Trade Chris Davis While In Contention
After internal consideration of the idea of trading slugger Chris Davis, the Orioles front office decided that it will not look to move the first baseman/right fielder, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. The club has said as much publicly, but it’s particularly interesting to note that the concept was at least explored.
That stance could change if the team takes a significant dive over the next few weeks, Connolly adds. But he stresses that Davis will likely remain in the fold unless the O’s truly feel they have slipped out of contention.
Of course, as Connolly rightly explains, the club’s math necessarily factors in the strong possibility that it will make Davis a qualifying offer after the season. Though he’s been something of an enigmatic hitter in recent campaigns, ranging from putting up the slash line of a mediocre power bat to that of a legitimate superstar, Davis is still just 29 and seems a good bet to decline the one-year offer if it is extended.
A declined qualifying offer would put Baltimore in line for a draft compensation, so the team already has a strong expectation of getting future value out of the pending free agent. The gap between what it can achieve for him at the trade deadline and the value of the compensatory pick is not, presumably, significant enough to warrant sacrificing the ability to field Davis in the lineup the rest of the way.
NL Notes: Swanson, Draft, Reds, Cueto, Montero, Pirates
Last year, the signing saga of first overall draft pick Brady Aiken seemed straightforward until a controversial physical intervened. This year’s top choice, Dansby Swanson, has yet to put pen to paper, but MLB.com’s Jim Callis writes that the Diamondbacks are still expected to reach agreement without much drama. As Callis explains, Arizona should save a big chunk of money against its overall pool space with a deal, though the team may not have worthwhile targets from later draft rounds on which to re-allocate those funds. The piece goes on to address the signing status of several other players from the first and second rounds who have yet to agree with their teams. Callis suggests that the early selection who is most likely to forego a deal could be Dodgers draftee Kyle Funkhouser.
- There are “widespread rumblings” that the Reds organization could undergo change shortly after the conclusion of the All-Star Game, Bob Nightengale of USA Today tweets. It’s unclear from the report what that might consist of, but it’s certainly conceivable that the on-field struggles could precipitate a shakeup at any level of the organization.
- As the Reds prepare to market staff ace Johnny Cueto, the three teams with the most earnest interest are the Astros, Blue Jays, and Royals, Nightengale adds on Twitter. Cueto’s cheap contract looks to be a significant factor in that interest, given that all three of those clubs currently operate at a lower payroll capacity (Houston, Kansas City) or reportedly lack financial flexibility at the deadline (Toronto).
- Mets righty Rafael Montero has long looked like an important part of the equation for New York, either on the big league roster or as a trade piece. But he’s been out of action for a lengthy stretch with shoulder troubles, and there had been little sign of progress. Montero took the bump today in the Gulf Coast League, however, marking his first competitive appearance since late April, Adam Rubin of ESPNNewYork.com tweets.
- The first half returns show that Pirates GM Neal Huntington had a hugely successful offseason, writes Ron Cook of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. But the top Pittsburgh baseball decisionmaker also acknowledges that some of the output from recent acquisitions such as A.J. Burnett and Francisco Cervelli has surprised even the front office.
NL East Notes: Wright, Phillies, Bethancourt
There has still been “no change” in the status of Mets third baseman David Wright, Mike Puma of the New York Post reports. While both team and player had indicated some optimism recently, Wright has still not been cleared to resume baseball activities. As Puma notes, with at least a three week delay between the point of clearance and a return to the big leagues, Wright’s window for a return this year is rather narrow.
Here are a few more quick notes from the NL East:
- Soon-to-be Phillies president Andy MacPhail ought to make it his first order of business to find a modern baseball mind to join him in Philadelphia, argues David Murphy of the Philadelphia Daily News. As the piece puts it, the Phils have ended up in their current state not because they’ve been unable to identify talented players, but rather due to a “blind spot [in] the macro-valuation of that talent, within the context of both sheer market appraisal and the impact of opportunity cost on the organization.” For MacPhail to succeed, says Murphy, he’ll need to find a top subordinate who can get a handle on these concepts — particularly given that Philadelphia’s advantages in total spending capacity appear likely to be reduced in importance over time.
- While the Braves seemingly continue to take many positive steps, the stunted development of backstop Christian Bethancourt has been a significant disappointment, Jeff Schultz of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution writes. Schultz indicates that there was more at play in the decision to send Bethancourt down than his anemic .508 OPS, citing “weaknesses in defense and handling a pitching staff” and hinting that the 23-year-old may have maturity and/or commitment issues. Bethancourt has hit well since taking up residence at Triple-A, but we’ve heard recently that Atlanta is looking outside the organization for young talent behind the dish.
AL Central Notes: Trade Value, Twins Pen, Price
Dave Cameron of Fangraphs has kicked off his always-interesting trade value series, starting with the players that landed just outside the top fifty and the first ten members of his list. The central divisions dominated the board at the back end of the first fifty, landing eight of the spots. Jose Quintana of the White Sox took the highest billing among the players that Cameron has ranked thus far, earning the nod at #41 based upon his sturdy production and cheap contract. He slotted just ahead of Twins youngster Byron Buxton and a pair of high-quality Indians (Jason Kipnis & Yan Gomes). You’ll want to check out the links for all the details.
Here are a few notes from the AL Central:
- Entering the All-Star break as a surprise contender, the Twins have some needs in the bullpen, writes Mike Berardino of the St. Paul Pioneer-Press. GM Terry Ryan rejected the idea that the team’s relief corps is burned out after half a season of play, despite middling results of late and some heavy usage on some arms. “The bullpen had carried us for quite a long time,” said Ryan. “We’re scuffling some. I think that’s fair. But you’re going to go through periods. It’s just a part of a 162-game schedule, in my opinion. The closer [Glen Perkins] hasn’t had any of those.” As Berardino notes, the club has generated plenty of rumors over recent weeks regarding its interest in pen arms, and it would not be surprising to see Minnesota add a few new options at the deadline.
- Tigers ace David Price said that he is not aware of any active talks between the team and his representatives regarding an extension, Bill Shaikin of the Los Angeles Times reports (via Twitter). It seems all but certain at this point that Price will hit the free agent market at the end of the year. Price also added that he does not expect to be dealt away from Detroit at the deadline. Needless to say, a move would be quite surprising, in spite of the team’s mediocre first half, given the comments of GM Dave Dombrowski earlier today.
AL East Notes: Orioles, Refsnyder, Kaprielian, Red Sox
Confirming expectations, Orioles executive VP Dan Duquette made clear that he has every intention of pushing for the post-season, as Roch Kubatko of MASNsports.com reports. He expects a “seller’s market,” as do most observers, because “just a handful” of clubs profile as true sellers. But don’t expect Baltimore to take that opportunity to cash in any of its expiring contracts. “Our pending free agents, the most value they could have would be to this year’s ballclub and their contribution to this year’s team,” said Duquette. “So any pending free agents, we’d like to see them play their best for the Orioles and help us accomplish our goals. That has been our focus all year. … “We have some pretty solid depth to the team and within our organization. Our club is in the hunt and we want to stay in the hunt and we’re going to do what we can to supplement our major league club.”
Here’s more from the American League East:
- The Yankees plan to keep young second baseman Rob Refsnyder on the big league roster after the All-Star break, John Harper of the New York Daily News reports. Refsnyder, 24, has only logged two big league games, but could take time away from veteran Stephen Drew as the team continues to evaluate its middle infield options ahead of the trade deadline.
- Meanwhile, the have yet to sign 16th overall draft pick James Kaprielian, but multiple reports suggest that a deal is likely to get done. Sources tell Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com (Twitter link) that the righty is likely to head to New York rather than returning to UCLA for a final year. And MLB.com draft guru Jim Callis, who has broken a significant portion of the draft signings this year, tweets that he anticipates an agreement — while adding that the Yankees will likely be forced to max out their spending right up to the line of giving up a pick in next year’s draft.
- Red Sox skipper John Farrell says that he sees good reason to acquire more pitching before the deadline, as Jason Mastrodonato of the Boston Herald reports on Twitter. Though Farrell indicated that he is confident in the current staff, he went on to say that “to add some arms to the group that we have … would go a long way to stabilize things.”
AL West Notes: Astros, Cueto, A’s, Perez, Young
Though they’ve fallen back to the pack somewhat in recent weeks, the Astros have serious interest in Reds starter Johnny Cueto, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com reports. Cueto sat atop Houston’s list of targets at the end of June, per Evan Drellich of the Houston Chronicle, and Heyman says that still appears to be the case. Needless to say, the veteran righty would provide a huge boost to an Astros team that has received underwhelming results from the back of its rotation, effectively slotting another top-of-the-rotation arm (alongside Dallas Keuchel) into a slot that has been occupied by a revolving door of starters. Houston will obviously face plenty of competition in their pursuit, assuming that Cincinnati puts its ace on the market.
Here’s more from the AL West:
- The Athletics remain one of the most interesting teams to watch heading into the season’s second half, as they possess several obvious trade pieces but are still not fully buried in the AL West. John Hickey of the Bay Area News Group breaks down the factors weighing in club’s decisionmaking process, noting that GM Billy Beane remains optimistic of his current roster’s quality. A rival American League GM tells Hickey that he doesn’t believe Oakland to be too far back to make a run, and Hickey ultimately concludes that “it seems unlikely to see a mass selloff” as things stand.
- After welcoming back starter Matt Harrison from a lengthy absence, the Rangers are set to activate fellow left-handed rotation piece Martin Perez on Friday, the club announced. Perez underwent Tommy John surgery last May, at the same point in time that Harrison went down. Now 24, Perez agreed to a four-year, $12.5MM deal with three club options (2018-2020) back in November of 2013. At the time, he was fresh off of a 124 1/3 inning, 3.62 ERA showing in his age-22 season. He has plenty of time to regain his former promise and provide value to the Rangers under that contract.
- While Rangers GM Jon Daniels said recently that he hopes to add a “complementary right-handed bat,” it remains unclear precisely what players the team could target. MLBTR’s Steve Adams noted in the just-linked piece that now-free agent Delmon Young could make some sense, particularly given that he could likely be had for a relatively meager commitment. Chris Cotillo of SB Nation tweets that Texas has not yet reached out to Young’s representatives, though of course the 29-year-old has only been on the market for a few days.
Papelbon: “Phillies Have Got To Make A Decision” On Trade
Phillies closer Jonathan Papelbon, outspoken and colorful as ever, has made no secret of the fact that he hopes and expects the team to trade him to a contender this summer. But he escalated the rhetoric somewhat today while representing the club at the All-Star game, as Jake Kaplan of the Philadelphia Inquirer reports, saying that he feels it’s time for the front office to make a move.
“The Phillies have got to make a decision. You’ve got to go one way or the other,” Papelbon said. “You can’t be in limbo and sit here and say, ‘What if we do this or what if we do that?’ You’ve got to make a decision and you’ve got to go with it. I know that we’ve got a new interim president. We’ve got a new interim manager and we’ve got all this change supposedly happening, but I don’t see any of it yet.”
Papelbon summed things up by saying the Philadelphia front office ought to “you know what or get off the pot.” Clearly, for the 34-year-old, it’s less a matter of whether he should be dealt than when. As he said: “If this decision was solely on my shoulders, I would’ve been gone a long time ago.”
Recently, a report suggested that the Phillies had been zeroing in on a deal. But talks were said to have been shelved by the Phils due to higher-level intervention relating to the hiring of president-to-be Andy MacPhail. It’s not clear whether Papelbon’s frustrations are tied at all to that situation.
A deal of some kind would seem a fait accompli — at least, that is, were it not for the complications embedded within Papelbon’s contract. At this point, it’s highly likely that his 2016 option will vest, which at least lends certainty to the equation. But Papelbon’s limited no-trade protection has allowed him to insert his own preferences into the transactional equation — most notably, perhaps, an apparent insistence that he be shipped to a contender that will use him as a closer.
All said, the Phillies do seem rather likely to get something done on Papelbon by the end of the month. But it isn’t inconceivable that he could be moved in August (during the revocable waiver trade period) or even the offseason.