By Tim Dierkes | at
Jon Heyman busts out a big one early Monday morning: the Mets are in "serious talks" for Jason Schmidt or Roy Oswalt. The key to any deal would be Lastings Milledge.
Heyman mentions that Brian Bannister would be needed to pry Oswalt away but not Schmidt. He also says Aaron Heilman could be used to "enhance" a deal.
It seems now that Oswalt really is in play, which is strange given the Astros’ lack of depth behind Roger Clemens. Speaking of which, why not put the Rocket on the block instead?
By Tim Dierkes | at
Fueled by pierogis, time to write up another rumor before I hit the hay. Monday should be good times.
According to Will Carroll this evening, the Mets and Cardinals are talking about an Aaron Heilman for Jason Marquis swap. Most Mets fans seem up in arms at the possibility.
After all, Marquis will be a free agent after this season and currently sports a 5.67 ERA and 1.41 WHIP. "But wait!" you’re saying. "What about those times Tony La Russa sacrificed his ERA to save the bullpen?" Alright, alright, let’s take those out (which is more than a tad generous). Removing Marquis’s 12 and 13 earned run starts, he’s got a 4.39 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. That actually makes Marquis look like an above average pitcher. Indeed, he is a pretty solid back of the rotation guy.
Heilman has stumbled a bit this season, posting a 4.32 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in 58 innings of relief. He’s actually improved upon his control a bit, but his strikeout rate is down significantly and his hit rate is subsequently way up. It’d be interesting to see what a Dave Duncan or Don Cooper could do with him. Could he be worked back into a starting role? It’s not out of the question but success as a starter is no slam dunk. Just ask Ryan Madson.
By Tim Dierkes | at
According to Adam Rubin of the New York Daily News, the Mets may be able to acquire Freddy Garcia or Javier Vazquez from the White Sox. He says:
"The White Sox have been calling around to clubs – including the Mets – letting it be known that Javier Vazquez or Freddy Garcia would be available. The price: top-notch relief help, which would allow the Sox to fortify their bullpen leading to closer Bobby Jenks, sources told the Daily News. Chicago has 23-year-old Brandon McCarthy ready to step into its rotation."
Seems like relievers are the hot ticket item of this particular trading season. They’re always a popular deadline commodity but the price seemed quite high yesterday. My Mets source is adamant that New York would not give up Duaner Sanchez (2.45 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 6.4 K/9) for Garcia or Vazquez. He tells me that Aaron Heilman is an option. To me, sounds like just the pitcher Don Cooper could fix after he’s stumbled a bit this season.
This year, the Mets have seen fine work from Heath Bell (0.83 ERA in 21 Triple A innings plus a 3.68 ERA in 22 big league innings) and Royce Ring (1.53 ERA in 29 Triple A innnings). Henry Owens jumped up from Double A after 25 innings of 1.08 ball.
Rubin’s story also indicates that the Sox could have some interest in Tom Gordon, the best reliever on the trade market. Flash has pitched for both Chicago teams. He posted a 3.16 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 12 saves, and 11.0 K/9 in 74 innings for the Sox back in 2003.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Haven’t heard from my Mets source in a while, but he checked in this morning with some good info.
He tells me that the Mets are not interested in trading Lastings Milledge or Aaron Heilman in a Barry Zito deal. The Mets aren’t a team to overpay for 2-3 months of Zito given his impending free agency. In addition, the Wilpons are sensitive about the Scott Kazmir trade (7-2, 2.39 ERA) and won’t let history repeat itself.
On the other hand, if the Mets had to include Milledge and another top prospect (Alay Soler?) to acquire Dontrelle Willis, they’d jump at the chance. Willis could anchor the rotation for many years in front of Mike Pelfrey.
20 year-old outfielder Carlos Gomez is a scout favorite despite his current .219/.290/.318 line at Double A so far. The Mets love the kid, but he could be had if it meant acquiring an ace-caliber pitcher like Jason Schmidt without parting with Milledge.
Anderson Hernandez, Michael Abreu, Evan Maclane, Heath Bell, and Victor Diaz are all readily available trading chips if the Mets decide not to shoot for the stars.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Many of you have already noticed by now that Newsday is reporting that the Mets traded Kris Benson to the Orioles for Jorge Julio and John Maine. A tip of the cap to Orioles Hangout; I’m pretty sure they confirmation first.
The question on most people’s minds is this: is the Benson swap the initial movement indicating a trade of Barry Zito to the Mets? If you recall, my Mets source indicated yesterday that Benson would be traded to Baltimore to acquire a prospect to Billy Beane’s liking. I’ve got word out to a couple of sources to see if anything has changed. In the meantime, let’s see what we can deduce.
First off, would the A’s have use for John Maine? The 24 year-old righty starter was ranked 6th in the Orioles’ organization by Baseball America entering the 2005 season. According to BA back then, Maine needed to refine his command and had a ceiling as a #3 starter. They also mentioned that he was "probably a #4 or 5 guy on a first-division club." Maine pitched kind of like a #4 starter in 128 innings at Triple A Ottawa in ’05. He posted a 4.56 ERA with improved control while maintaining a solid K rate.
I haven’t projected Maine myself yet, but ZiPS thought he’d throw 153 innings of 4.41 ball in his first extended trial with the Orioles. I think that’s great value for the price. For basis of comparison, Maine’s 2005 doesn’t look terribly different from Danny Haren’s 2004. Haren was certainly better, but it’s a fair comparison. Interestingly, Baseball Prospectus lists these comparables for Maine: Joel Pineiro (2002), A.J. Burnett (2001), Juan Marichal (1961), Bob Gibson (1960), and strangely, Jorge Julio (2003). I know the A’s already have a stable of starters, but Maine probably needs a little more time and a team can never have too much starting pitching depth.
I would speculate that the Mets would hang onto Jorge Julio to serve as Aaron Heilman’s replacement. While most analysis today indicates that the Benson trade simply means Heilman starts for the Mets, I am skeptical. According to MetsBlog earlier this month:
"The problem is that the only person who seems to see Heilman as a starter is Heilman. Nearly all scouts and experts that I talked with all explained the same thing: Heilman’s repertoire is too hittable during his second time through a lineup."
Should Minaya package up Victor Diaz with someone to acquire a top flight prospect suitable to the A’s, I could really see this Zito deal coming to fruition.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Just got a note from my Mets source on a possible Barry Zito trade scenario. Here’s how this could play out:
The Orioles still have some interest in Kris Benson; VP Jim Duquette likes him. Benson would be dealt to the O’s for young players of Billy Beane’s choice.
Victor Diaz would be shipped off by the Mets as well, but again for prospects coveted by Oakland. The A’s don’t have room for Diaz given their glut of 1B/DH/OF types. The prospects from both deals would then be packaged with Aaron Heilman and the Mets would receive Zito.
The Mets would likely sign Jeff DaVanon to platoon in right field with Xavier Nady to complement this trade. The switch-hitting DaVanon didn’t do much with righties this year, but posted an .824 OPS against them in 2004. Nady has a career line of .323/.400/.452 in 124 at-bats versus southpaws. So keep an eye out for a DaVanon signing and Benson trade, because that could spell a Zito deal.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Let’s take a look at what some other sources are reporting today on the rumor front.
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post mentions that Marquis Grissom’s agent said he will sign with the Cubs. When you look at Grissom’s 2005, there’s not much to like. He doesn’t get on base and he’s pushing 40. On the flip side, Grissom mashed lefties to the tune of .315/.356/.577 in 2004 and he’d make a great platoon partner for Jacque Jones.
UPDATE: You probably assumed this, but I’ve verified with a reliable source that the Grissom deal is for one year and will be incentive-based. Nothing unexpected, but worth a mention.
The Mets are apparently finalizing a deal for Danys Baez where they’d give up either Jae Seo or Aaron Heilman plus prospects. In my opinion, this trade is going to weaken the Mets in 2006. I’ve projected Baez to post an ERA near 4. Click here to read MetsBlog’s take.
From my inbox today: "You would be crediable if your rumors actually came true." Why do some people spend so much time writing long, incoherent emails about how they don’t like my site? Just stop reading it if you don’t like it.
Dave Kaplan of WGN Radio Chicago has reported that the Cubs are in discussions for Barry Zito. Wouldn’t be bad to see a durable pitcher on the North Side of Chicago to complement Zambrano.
As you’ve certainly read, Miguel Tejada still wants out. More on details on teams in play later today.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A source close to the Mets organization has supplied me with a possible trade scenario that is being discussed. It’s complicated, but I thought I’d put it out there.
Mets trade: Aaron Heilman, Cliff Floyd, Victor Diaz, Brian Bannister
Mets get: Manny Ramirez
TB trades: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright
TB receives: Aaron Heilman, Victor Diaz, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox trade: Manny Ramirez, Bronson Arroyo
Red Sox receive: Julio Lugo, Joey Gathright, Cliff Floyd, Brian Bannister
Wow. I’m not sure if this is any more plausible than the other complicated possibilities floating around, but this is a solid source. Let’s see if it passes the reality test.
The Mets give up Heilman, Floyd, Diaz, and Bannister for Manny. That’s a huge bounty, but the only real gem there is Heilman. Plus, Manny is still a superstar. Diaz is a good outfield prospect, and Bannister is a B level starter with a low ceiling. Floyd is a year away from free agency and expendable if Manny is acquired. The Mets could always try to get Manny and keep Floyd, but Floyd hasn’t played RF since 2002. I would say this portion is not too far-fetched.
How about Tampa Bay’s side of things? First off, my guess is that upper management would be reluctant to package Lugo and Gathright together. As with the Huff/Baez rumors, why not just trade them separately and maximize the return? The demand is certainly there. Lugo is a hot commodity right now, and the Rays have been asking for a lot of Gathright (Scott Olsen?). Arroyo would make a great #2 for TB; I’ve projected him to lead the Red Sox in wins in 2006. The team doesn’t have a need for Diaz in a stacked outfield. Then again, he’d be a decent fit at first base. They’d probably love to have Heilman in the rotation or closing games. Overall, I’d label this part of the trade as somewhat questionable.
The Red Sox are basically getting three quality Major Leaguers in return for a superstar and a promising young starter. Given Floyd’s injury record and impending free agency, I can see his inclusion. Gathright hasn’t proven anything at the Major League level yet; only Lugo is a known quantity, and he’s also got free agency looming. So if you look at it that way, things seem fair for the Red Sox. The Mets might even have to throw in some cash to make this work for the Sox.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Gotham Baseball’s Mark Healey has heard a massive trade rumor from "multiple independent baseball sources." Of course, it’s subject to change, isn’t close, and all the usual disclaimers. Here’s the Cliff Notes version of it:
"Mets would send Heilman and Matsui (and $5 million) to Tampa Bay for Lugo. Then New York would send Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister and Victor Diaz to Baltimore for Tejada, and then send Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny Ramirez."
Let’s stop right there. My opinion on each step of this possible deal:
Aaron Heilman for Julio Lugo sounds like fair value to me. Gotham’s sources have the Mets eating $5MM of the $8MM owed to Kaz Matsui in 2006. That part gels with the information I’ve heard from my Mets source that New York would have to pay at least half of Matsui’s salary to unload him. I’m not sure how the Devil Rays would structure their infield, with Jorge Cantu entrenched at second base and B.J. Upton ready to take over at short. I had thought the D-Rays would hold out for more than this for Lugo – a good reliever plus someone else’s baggage. I still feel that they’ll want more.
So then the Orioles are giving up their superstar shortstop, possibly one of the five best players in baseball, for Julio Lugo, Kris Benson, Brian Bannister, and Victor Diaz. This is where the plausibility of the rumor breaks down for me. The Orioles have given every indication that they need a star player back for Tejada – they’re not even sold on Mark Prior. Lugo’s a good player for $5MM, but he hits free agency after that. Benson is a fourth starter who figures to post an ERA around 4 over the next two seasons while being paid more than $15MM. That doesn’t add much value for the O’s. Bannister is a smart young pitcher with a good minor league track record, but Baseball America has said he’s "not overpowering" and "doesn’t have a high ceiling." Diaz is still a valuable prospect, but could easily turn out to be a career reserve.
To sum it up, the Orioles are giving up Tejada to get a pretty good SS in his contract year, an overpaid fourth starter, a B-level pitching prospect, and a solid outfield prospect. That’s quantity over quality, and I don’t see it happening.
To finish it off, the Mets ship Tejada to the Red Sox for Manny, effectively giving up nothing impressive for the superstar outfielder, considering the players sent to Baltimore. Not entirely sold on that step, and I’d heard the Orioles did not want Tejada to play for a division rival.
UPDATE: Just asked my Mets source whether the above scenario could happen. He said there’s no way: "Orioles get screwed, the Red Sox get screwed, and the Mets have everything go their way."
Healey’s article also mentions these comments from a baseball official:
"If Barry Zito doesn’t get dealt before opening day, the A’s are screwed. No one is willing to pay Beane’s price after what the Braves paid for Hudson [Namely, Dan Meyer, Juan Cruz and Charles Thomas]."
I don’t agree with the baseball official, for what it’s worth. The A’s hold all the cards with Zito. They have absolutely no need to unload him, and will boast a deep rotation if they keep Zito until July. I find it odd that the official cites the Hudson trade as hurting Beane’s ability to make major trades. The Tim Hudson deal is one where the Braves can be labeled a clear winner. The highly touted Meyer quickly got hurt and is a question mark, Cruz wasn’t deemed Major League ready by Oakland, and Charles Thomas has completely crapped out. Perhaps the official meant to refer to the Mark Mulder trade.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A slew of information coming from my Mets source today. Let’s see what we’ve got.
My source believes the Mets will give Julian Tavarez the four-year deal he’s looking for. The market explosion has necessitated this length, and Omar Minaya will go to great lengths to avoid a subpar bullpen like last year’s.
The Mets are the current frontrunners for Barry Zito, and Lastings Milledge is still a requirement. As reported earlier, the Mets plan to request a 72 hour contract extension window upon trading for Zito, but would make the trade with just a verbal agreement from the pitcher. Zito’s best years came under Rick Peterson’s guidance, so it’d be a good fit.
The Mets don’t have the upper hand in any possible Kris Benson trade, so teams are backing off and offering less value. The feeling is that Anna Benson’s media tirades are precluding small market teams from acquiring her husband. Anna has definitely decreased Kris’s value around baseball. She knows that her career will stall if they end up in a place like Kansas City, so she’ll do anything she can to stay in New York.
If the Mets can’t get fair value for Benson, Steve Trachsel and/or Victor Zambrano may be dealt for prospects. The Mets hope to acquire players that would appeal to the A’s as part of a Zito deal.
The Aaron Heilman for Danys Baez rumors that have been floating around are false.
Not surprisingly, there’s no market for Kaz Matsui, even at a 50% off discount. While they’d prefer Mark Grudzielanek, the Mets are OK with their depth at second base.
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