Big Hype Prospects: Rafaela, Amador, Langford, Madden, Caissie
Well, what are you waiting for? Let’s get to it.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Ceddanne Rafaela, 22, OF, BOS (MLB)
(AA/AAA) 485 PA, 20 HR, 36 SB, .302/.349/.520
Rafaela is the latest top prospect to earn a promotion. The defensive wunderkind has posted impressive hitting stats, albeit without much support under the surface. For instance, Rafaela has 14 home runs in 219 Triple-A plate appearances, an impressive power display by any measure. However, he’s done this with a 25.9 percent HR/FB ratio and below-average exit velocities. The guys who maintain high HR/FB ratios do it by crushing baseballs on the regular. Rafaela also has both poor discipline and serious swing-and-miss issues. That he succeeds despite these flaws indicates a path forward in the coming years. For now, consider him a glove-first option with an explosive but exploitable bat.
Adael Amador, 20, SS, COL AA)
(A+) 259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514
Though he’s no Ethan Salas, Amador is still one of the youngest players in Double-A. As yet, he only has two games at the level. He’s gone 2-for-8 with a walk and two steals. Amador is a switch-hitting middle infielder with a Kwan-like feel for the strike zone and contact. He still sells out for contact a little too much, and too many of his balls in play are on the ground. Even so, he’s trending toward a 2024 debut for a Rockies club in desperate need of a viable leadoff hitter. And that’s exactly what he looks like – a long-term up-the-middle leadoff guy.
Wyatt Langford, 21, OF, TEX (A+)
(A+) 88 PA, 3 HR, 6 SB, .314/.455/.586
A candidate to go first overall in the 2023 draft, Langford “fell” to the Rangers at fourth overall. He tore through the complex in 14 plate appearances before landing in High-A. The right-handed outfielder has more walks than strikeouts and as many extra-base hits as singles – indicating High-A isn’t much of a challenge. The main knock against him is defense. He’s fast enough to be a plus fielder, but he reportedly gets poor reads off the bat. His speed helps him to make up ground. I like to give players with his athleticism a pass on their poor defensive reputations in college. A professional environment without the pesky distractions of college sometimes unlocks an extra hunger to improve.
Ty Madden, 23, SP, DET (AA)
(AA) 103 IP, 10.92 K/9, 3.93 BB/9, 3.84 ERA
Dating back to last season, Madden now has 30 starts at Double-A. He features a classic four-pitch repertoire of roughly average offerings complemented by average or better command. Variety and command have allowed him to miss bats at a high rate. One glaring issue is a hefty home run rate. I don’t have the data necessary to diagnose if those dingers are the result of a simple or complicated issue. Presumably, they’re at least of moderate concern since he remains in Double-A.
Owen Caissie, 21, OF, CHC (AA)
458 PA, 21 HR, 6 SB, .282/.387/.525
Caissie has the Joey Gallo starter kit –plus discipline, 80-grade power, and a 32.8 percent strikeout rate. There’s some cause for hope. Caissie’s 13.9 percent swinging strike rate is well-below even Gallo’s best seasons. Both sluggers spent their age-20 campaign in Double-A. Gallo had a 23 percent swinging strike rate at the time – though he also hit 42 home runs that season. Teams have grown increasingly adept at using players in the situations for which they’re best suited. Caissie appears destined for a highly managed role, one in which he might shine as brightly as baseball’s top stars.
Three More
Robby Snelling, SDP (19): A bat-missing southpaw, Snelling was somehow only the second-youngest player the Padres promoted to Double-A last week (yep, I’m going to keep bringing up Salas). Despite strong results overall, reports indicate Snelling is a long way from a Major League debut. His fastball lacks special traits. Success will depend on his slider, an impressive offering for which he currently lacks command.
Yu-Min Lin, ARI (20): Min earned a promotion to Double-A right around Snelling’s age. He perhaps serves as a cautionary tale since they both feature unimpressive fastballs. Unlike Snelling, Lin has solid command and his primary weapon is a changeup. He’s struggled to a 5.19 ERA in Double-A.
Colton Cowser, BAL (23): One of the hottest first-half hitters in the minors, Cowser struggled to drink from his jumbo-sized cup of coffee. His MLB-hangover has followed him back to Triple-A. Since demotion, he’s batting .250/.348/.500 with a 34 percent strikeout rate in 47 plate appearances.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Crews, Skenes, Amador, Hampton, Mauricio
Nobody runs a stronger Top 100 prospects list than Baseball America. Today, we’ll look at some key updates to their mid-season list that have yet to be reflected by other public outlets. We’ll also check in on recent draftees.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Dylan Crews, 21, OF, WSH (CLG)
258 PA, 18 HR, 6 SB, .426/.567/.713
Crews leads the 2023 draft class, ranking fourth overall among the Top 100 prospects in the game. He’s basically tied with future teammate James Wood. The Nationals have the foundation of a potent outfield in the near future.
If there’s a knock on Crews, it’s a possible weakness to pro-caliber breaking balls. Perhaps the only challenge left to him before his Major League debut is coping with pitchers who can precisely command breaking stuff. Otherwise, he’s a premium all-fields power hitter who can stick in center field. Given the potency of his bat, he’s still valuable as a corner outfielder.
Paul Skenes, 21, SP, PIT (CLG)
122.2 IP, 15.3 K/9, 1.5 BB/9, 1.69 ERA
Skenes outclassed college hitters in a batter-friendly run environment. He’s considered more or less Major League ready and could debut whenever Pittsburgh is ready for him. Between his heavy college workload and violent delivery, don’t expect that to happen this year. The recent trend is to shut down heavy workload college pitchers in their draft year. Skenes’ fastball is a weapon, regularly hitting triple-digit velocity with arm-side run and carry. He’s deadly working up-and-in to right-handed hitters. Southpaws won’t enjoy facing him either. He throws multiple breaking balls and features a quality changeup – a pitch that was all but unnecessary to his college dominance.
Adael Amador, SS, 20, COL (A+)
259 PA, 9 HR, 12 SB, .302/.391/.514
A personal miss of mine, Amador wasn’t much to look at last year despite strong results. We often see players of this ilk thrive in the low minors only to fade as they climb the ladder. It’s a discipline over physical skills profile, though the physical side of his game has improved enough to project a future starting role. Previously, I viewed him as a future oft-used utility guy based on his public measurables. My scouting contacts backed up that assessment with their visual impressions. Amador still primarily makes pulled, ground ball contact. He’ll need to develop more lift in order to make the most of his skills.
Chase Hampton, 21, SP, NYY (AA)
(A+/AA) 74.2 IP, 13.3 K/9, 3.0 BB/9, 3.13 ERA
An afterthought on Yankees lists entering this season, Hampton is sprinting through the minors. He’s added velocity to a five-pitch repertoire of effective offerings. He’s passed Will Warren within the system. Pitchers with at least four average pitches and 50-grade command tend to have long careers (health allowing). The Yankees haven’t shown the best feel for finishing their pitching prospects in recent years – perhaps inspiring their willingness to deal J.P. Sears, Ken Waldichuk, and Hayden Wesneski at the deadline last season. Hampton is seemingly a cut above.
Ronny Mauricio, 21, SS, NYM (AAA)
358 PA, 14 HR, 14 SB, .299/.344/.512
Whether or not you play fantasy baseball, there’s something attractive about guys who mash dingers and raid forts. Mauricio produces wild exit velocities – 92.0 average and 115.8 max. That’s all the more impressive when we consider his Baez-ian discipline. Like early-career Baez, his ability to square pitches out of the zone helps him to recover for objectively abysmal discipline. At this stage of his career, he doesn’t flash Baez’s superlative defensive feats. Had the Mets played as expected, Mauricio is probably traded in the upcoming weeks. As it stands, he should receive an audition at second base before long.
Three More
Ethan Salas, SDP (17): Salas, whom we profiled in more depth last week, jumped from the mid-50s to 18th on the BA Top 100. A precocious defender, the rapid development of his bat has caught even his most ardent supporters by surprise. Few players generate half this much excitement in their age 16 season. How he handles his growing fame will prove instructive.
Sal Frelick, MIL (23): While I’ve soured on Frelick, BA is enthused with a 32nd ranking. Their short blurb references the reason why I’m concerned – a lack of authoritative contact. His 85.2 average and 106.5 max exit velocities are well below average in a year when most guys have artificially inflated Triple-A EVs. The discipline remains pristine.
Wyatt Langford, TEX (22): The other draftee who was widely considered a first-overall caliber prospect, Langford might manage to outhit Crews. However, he’s miles behind defensively despite comparable physical ability. FanGraphs offers a fun comp – Pat Burrell with a jetpack.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Encarnacion-Strand, Lawlar, Perez, Merrill, Amador
Last week, I described how the Reds might muck about with Elly De La Cruz’s service time – if they chose to do so. Instead, they promptly promoted him. It’s always a relief to see deserving prospects promoted in a timely manner.
To date, De La Cruz is batting .364/.481/.636 in 27 plate appearances with a home run and three steals. His 37 percent strikeout rate is the lone blemish. Like the rookie version of Fernando Tatis Jr., De La Cruz has the capacity to perform despite a high strikeout rate.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Christian Encarnacion-Strand, 23, 1B/3B, CIN (AAA)
199 PA, 17 HR, .362/.427/.734
Next up in the Reds developmental pipeline is Encarnacion-Strand. Known as CES to those who like to write about him without using 28 characters, the powerful corner infielder has punished opposing pitchers to the tune of .542/.633/1.042 (1.675 OPS) in his last six games. He hit seven singles, three doubles, and three home runs over the span.
There are aspects of his game that can temper enthusiasm. There’s a risk his plate approach and high swinging strike rates could lead to high strikeout rates. At this point, he’s utterly eviscerated Triple-A. It’s time to see if those concerns are warranted. The Reds have a minor issue to resolve when it comes to selecting CES’s promotion date. Joey Votto’s rehab will end in about 12 days. His recovery in Triple-A is progressing at a slow pace. Fitting all three of CES, Votto, and Spencer Steer in the regular lineup could prove challenging – and would cost Tyler Stephenson playing time too. Such impediments shouldn’t block Encarnacion-Strand for much longer.
Jordan Lawlar, 20, SS, ARI (AA)
215 PA, 8 HR, 15 SB, .238/.335/.443
Considered one of the top athletes in the minors, Lawlar’s time in Double-A hasn’t been all that impressive. However, in the last week, he’s hitting .407/.429/.704 in 28 plate appearances. He has a 1.029 OPS over his last 73 plate appearances. It would seem he’s made an adjustment. Reports from public sources note concerns about his hit tool. Every other aspect of his game is expected to be above average. Lawlar is the penthouse apartment of prospects – he has a high floor and higher ceiling. Presently, he is on pace to debut in 2024.
Eury Perez, 20, SP, MIA (MLB)
29 IP, 9.31 K/9, 4.03 BB/9, 2.17 ERA
Perez is a big part of the Marlins recent success. Already 3-1 in just six starts, Perez hasn’t missed a beat since skipping from Double-A to the Majors in mid-May. His only truly sub-par outing occurred at Coors Field. While ERA-estimators (4.34 FIP, 4.68 xFIP) suggest he’s had some luck with run prevention, this is still an impressive performance from a young 20-year-old (he has a mid-April birthday).
A peek under the hood suggests Perez still has a thing or two to learn about using his repertoire. He’s regularly using all four of his pitches. Hitters have performed well against his 97.5-mph heater, but they’ve struggled versus the offspeed stuff. Perez features a “big” fastball. It shouldn’t perform as a below-average offering. It’s possible he’s trying to make pitches that would work in Double-A but not the Majors. As he acclimates, I expect his fastball to grade out better.
Jackson Merrill, 20, SS, SDP (A+)
206 PA, 4 HR, 8 SB, .257/.296/.387
The third-highest ranked “Jackson” on most prospect lists, Merrill was a contender for Top 10 prospect status over the offseason. He’s backed up a bit in the early going. The Midwest League happens to be one of the more difficult hitting environments in the minors. While the above triple-slash probably looks bad, it’s only six percent below the league average. Merrill is a hit-over-power prospect who produces high-quality, low-angle contact. The left-handed hitter draws a Michael Brantley comp from the folks at FanGraphs. Though injuries have reduced his developmental opportunities, he remains on pace to debut by his age 22 season.
Adael Amador, 20, 2B, COL (A+)
228 PA, 8 HR, 12 SB, .306/.392/.510
Last season, Amador profiled as a flexible utility fielder. While there’s never been any question about his feel for contact, the quality of that contact often raised eyebrows in a bad way. Amador looks “small” on the field, and that likely colored scouting reports. He’s strengthened over the last year to the point where he’s no longer seen as an ideal utility candidate. He’ll likely plant at second base for the long haul – especially with defensively adept Ezequiel Tovar ahead of him at shortstop. The switch-hitting Amador still has adjustments to make if he’s to make full use of spacious Coors Field. He taps most of his contact on the ground, though the quality of said contact has continually improved over time. Amador has more walks than strikeouts in his professional career and is running a 4.4 percent swinging strike rate this season. He should reach Double-A before much longer.
Three More
Andrew Painter, PHI (20): Painter was on pace to debut as a 19-year-old when a sprained UCL ended his Spring Training bid. He threw a 20-pitch bullpen on Saturday. The coming weeks mark an important step in his recovery.
Marcelo Mayer, BOS (20): Mayer’s time in Double-A isn’t going so hot. The shortstop is batting .154/.227/.333 in 45 plate appearances. A recent report on FanGraphs noted a mechanical shortcoming similar to Jarred Kelenic and Spencer Torkelson – namely, an issue with lifting balls low in the zone.
Connor Norby, BAL (23): There’s no question the Orioles have a lot of infield depth. I’m often asked whom I believe they’ll trade from that depth. Norby is my answer. The short right-handed hitter doesn’t have the utility of others in the system. He’s Major League adjacent and primed for a regular role within the next year. However, he profiles more like a core performer than a high-ceiling star.
Did I miss a detail or nuance? DM me on Twitter @BaseballATeam to suggest corrections.
Big Hype Prospects: Quero, Carter, Graceffo, Painter, Amador
This week on Big Hype Prospects, we take a look at some precocious youngsters in the upper minors.
Five Big Hype Prospects
Edgar Quero, 19, C, LAA (A)
515 PA, 17 HR, 12 SB, .312/.435/.530
Recently selected as the Angels Minor League Player of the Year by Baseball America, Quero has surged in the Angels system and likely ranks as their second-best farmhand behind Logan O’Hoppe. For what it’s worth, Baseball America’s midseason update has Quero behind O’Hoppe, Zach Neto, and Ky Bush, but it’s pretty clear to me that he’s since leapfrogged at least Bush.
Quero progressed considerably both offensively and defensively this season. He’s now viewed as likely to not only remain a catcher but to do so as a quality defender. As a hitter, he’s a consistent contact machine with advanced plate discipline for his age. He has a knack for finding gaps (35 doubles, two triples) and could grow into more home run power as he ages. For a 19-year-old with non-elite power (by scouting grade), hitting 17 dingers is a lovely platform. His 8.4 percent swinging strike rate is superior to most teenagers – even those that eventually go on to post high rates of contact. His 12 steals have come in 17 attempts, a sign he might not run much as he advances.
One tiny detail that will often be missed in surface-level analysis – Quero was hit by pitch 21 times. Among Major Leaguers, only Willson Contreras (23) has been hit by more than 20 pitches this season. While Quero’s OBP captures this trait, his walk rate does not. He’s listed as having a 14.2 percent walk rate and 17.7 percent strikeout rate. He actually has 94 walks plus hit-by-pitches compared to 91 strikeouts. It’s debatable whether this is a good trait for a minor leaguer since bean balls lead to injuries.
Evan Carter, 20, OF, TEX (AA)
(A+) 447 PA, 11 HR, 26 SB, .287/.388/.476
Carter, a second-round pick in the weird 2020 draft, was on track to jump onto Top 100 lists last season before a season-ending stress fracture in his back ended his campaign. While that may sound ominous, it’s a simple injury to maintain via core exercises. He spent the bulk of 2022 in High-A, earning a late-season promotion to Double-A in order to continue his season. Per Baseball America, he now ranks above Josh Jung as the Rangers top farm hand.
Carter is frequently praised for his swing decisions, but scouting reports often take time to focus on his weaknesses too. He has the size and physicality of a power hitter. His swing is thought to be prone to ground ball contact, though that didn’t show up in his incredibly balanced batted ball profile in High-A. He’s a capable center fielder whom multiple evaluators comp to Brandon Nimmo due to the discerning eye, a similar left-handed swing, and game power that is expected to underperform his stature. That said, the Rangers are sometimes criticized for asking their prospects to max out on power. Don’t sleep on the potential for 20-or-more homer upside once he’s in his 20s. His max exit velocity is already above the Major League average.
Gordon Graceffo, 22, SP, STL (AA)
(A+) 93.2 IP, 7.98 K/9, 2.31 BB/9, 3.94 ERA
Graceffo opened 2022 in High-A. In eight starts (45.2 innings), he chewed through the level with a 0.99 ERA, 11.04 K/9, and 0.79 BB/9. He’s performed more ordinarily at Double-A. A 5.07 FIP suggests he’s even struggled a bit more than his ERA portends. He’s performed particularly well of late. In 16.2 innings this month, he’s allowed no runs, five hits, two walks, and two hit batters with 22 strikeouts. His latest start began with five perfect innings before he allowed a hit in the sixth. Unlike most pitching prospects in their second pro season, he’s carried a fairly substantial workload of 139.1 innings. For perspective, only 56 big leaguers have thrown more frames. He also rates 10th among minor leaguers.
He possesses a four-pitch repertoire of above-average offerings complemented with average or better command. In essence, this is the Zac Gallen starter kit. The FanGraphs report mentions the shape of his fastball plays down. Basically, it’s contact-prone and won’t necessarily limit the quality of said contact. This appears to be an organizational shortcoming with the Cardinals – whether by choice, happenstance, or some other reason.
Andrew Painter, 19, SP, PHI (AA)
24.1 IP, 11.84 K/9, 0.74 BB/9, 1.11 ERA
Painter is a candidate to claim the mantle of top minor league pitcher once Grayson Rodriguez matriculates. In a past episode of BHP, I compared Painter to Spencer Strider due to what might play as a two-pitch repertoire. Reports have since surfaced that he’s gained confidence in an improved changeup. I also failed to account for their difference in stature – Painter is seven inches taller which greatly affects the shape of his fastball.
While he hasn’t induced quite as many swinging strikes as Strider did through his ascent, Painter has shown better command and pitchability. Given his early success in Double-A following 17 dominant starts in A-ball, he could be on track to debut in 2023. It’s rare for pitchers to reach the Show in their age 20 season. In fact, the youngest pitchers in the Majors this season are 22, though Luis Patino was 20 when he debuted. He even set a season-high of 27 batters faced on September 3, more than most big leaguers face in a start.
Adael Amador, 19, SS, COL (A)
555 PA , 15 HR, 26 SB, .292/.415/.445
Similarly to Quero, Amador remained in Low-A all season where he was able to focus on making modest improvements without being overmatched. He’s seen as a high-probability shortstop prospect who recorded more walks than strikeouts, makes a ton of contact, and isn’t a complete zero in the power department. He hits too much pulled, ground ball contact, but he has plenty of time to make adjustments. Excellent plate discipline is an important and underrated ingredient when it comes to altering a young player’s batted ball profile. While some scouting reports suggest he’ll shift to second base down the line, my own interpretation is that this isn’t strictly necessary. Defensively, he might fit best as a first-division utility man capable of suiting up all over the diamond. Not to say that he’s similar to Chris Taylor, but that role would be an excellent use of Amador’s talents.
Five More
Jackson Chourio, MIL (18): Like Carter, Chourio earned a promotion to Double-A mostly in order to continue his season. Thus far, he’s just 1-for-11 with three walks and four strikeouts. He’s also just 18-and-a-half, eight months the junior of the next-youngest hitter at the level (see next). If he can salvage a strong finish, he might be on pace to arrive in the Majors as a teenager.
Deyvison De Los Santos, ARI (19): Another promotee for the purpose of extending his season, De Los Santos flashed through Low- and High-A this season while bashing 21 home runs and posting some gaudy BABIPs. Those helped to hide swing-and-miss issues with his approach that at times evokes Pedro Cerrano. Plate discipline remains an ongoing issue for the potent teenager.
Francisco Alvarez, NYM (20): Recently sidelined with a loose body in his ankle, Alvarez returned to action a few days ago. He launched a home run on Tuesday. The Mets have gotten next to no offense from their catchers and might be willing to take desperate measures as the Braves nip at their heels in the NL East race.
Tink Hence, STL (20): Profiled in detail last week, Hence made a third straight scoreless start. He even faced a career-high 16 batters. The Cardinals continue to carefully manage his innings this season, combining short starts with a full week between outings.
Chase Silseth, LAA (22): Though he’s made seven big league appearances spanning 28.2 innings (6.59 ERA), Silseth has yet to appear in Triple-A. The 22-year-old has pitched excellently in Double-A with a 2.28 ERA, 11.93 K/9, 2.93 BB/9, and a flashy 17.8 percent swinging strike rate. He delivered a six-inning scoreless outing on Thursday with nine strikeouts for the Rocket City Trash Pandas.