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How Will Reds Divide Third Base Playing Time?

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The infield was a big reason for the Reds’ disappointing 2024 season. Regarded as the club’s strength entering Spring Training, it thinned quickly when Matt McLain suffered a shoulder injury and Noelvi Marte was hit with a PED suspension. By the end of camp, the Reds needed to trade for utilityman Santiago Espinal to backfill depth.

Cincinnati infielders hit .243/.313/.409 last season, which ranked 20th in park-adjusted offense. That’s despite a superstar performance at shortstop from Elly De La Cruz. Their .236/.303/.384 slash from the other three infield spots placed fifth from the bottom by measure of wRC+. Only the White Sox, Pirates, Rockies and Angels got less out of those positions.

McLain is back and will be the everyday second baseman, which Cincinnati ensured with the Jonathan India/Brady Singer swap at the beginning of the offseason. De La Cruz is obviously locked in at shortstop. The corner infield is much more up in the air. Signing Austin Hays theoretically allows new manager Terry Francona to bring Spencer Steer back onto the dirt as his primary first baseman. That decision may depend on who’s playing the hot corner, which is arguably the key question for the Reds to sort out this spring.

Jeimer Candelario was the unquestioned starter this time a year ago. Cincinnati inked the switch-hitter to a three-year, $45MM free agent deal. He was coming off a .251/.336/.471 showing between the Nationals and Cubs. That marked Candelario’s third strong season within the last four years. The Reds expected that to continue. Instead, he hit .225/.279/.429 during his first season in Cincinnati. While he connected on 20 homers, he had a career-worst walk rate (5.8%) and on-base percentage. Candelario also graded poorly defensively, leading to a sub-replacement level performance.

Candelario’s roster spot isn’t in jeopardy. His performance was probably impacted by a knee issue through which he played for a good chunk of last season. The Reds wouldn’t have cut bait after one season of a three-year deal even if he’d simply underperformed while at full health. That said, they’re less likely to stick with him as a regular third baseman if he doesn’t turn things around quickly.

That presumably played a role in the Gavin Lux trade. Cincinnati acquired the former top prospect from the Dodgers for outfield prospect Mike Sirota and the 41st pick in the upcoming draft. After missing all of 2023 to an ACL tear, Lux had a league average .251/.320/.383 slash with 10 homers in 487 plate appearances last season. The in-season splits were dramatic. Lux had a terrible first half, caught fire coming out of the All-Star Break, then didn’t hit during L.A.’s World Series run. The second half numbers might hint at a greater offensive ceiling, but he’s nearly 1500 plate appearances into his career and has been an average hitter (.252/.326/.383).

Average offensive production would be an upgrade over what Candelario provided last season. The bigger question is whether Lux can handle third base. He moved off shortstop because of throwing accuracy concerns. Lux didn’t start a game anywhere other than second base last year. He has six career innings as a third baseman from one game in 2021 (in which he made two throwing errors). He hasn’t started a regular season game on the left side of the infield in four years.

Mark Sheldon of MLB.com wrote last week that the Reds intend to move Lux around the infield during Spring Training. He could eventually see time in the outfield as well, though Francona indicated they’d have him solely on the infield at the beginning of camp. Lux and Francona each expressed confidence in his ability to make all the necessary throws, though that’s obviously something he’ll need to continue to prove in games.

Lux has minor league options remaining, but the Reds wouldn’t have given up two decent assets and taken on a $3.325MM arbitration salary if they didn’t expect him playing a key role. He’ll be on the MLB roster. If that’s not as the regular third baseman, he’d bounce around in a utility capacity and potentially work as a designated hitter. Cincinnati’s bench is otherwise heavily right-handed, so Lux’s lefty bat could provide balance.

Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand have less established MLB roster spots. They were each highly-touted prospects, Marte in particular, whose stocks tanked in 2024. Marte was banned for the season’s first 80 games after testing positive for Boldenone. He had a terrible second half upon his reinstatement. He hit .210/.248/.301 with a 31% strikeout rate and a meager 3.7% walk percentage over 242 plate appearances. He’ll need to dramatically hone in his plate discipline to tap into the power that made him a top prospect. At 23 years old, he’s far from finished, but it’s tough to see him winning an MLB job out of camp.

Encarnacion-Strand had an impressive half-season in 2023. He hit 13 homers with a .270/.328/.477 slash as a rookie. That earned him the Opening Day first base job last year. His season never really got off the ground. Encarnacion-Strand hit .190 with a .220 OBP over 29 games. A fracture in his right hand sent him to the injured list in early May. He attempted to rehab but required season-ending surgery six weeks later. It’s easy to write last year off as an injury-related anomaly, but he’s an unlikely long-term answer at third base. Prospect evaluators have panned his defense, with most projecting him as a first baseman. Even if he gets back on track offensively, he’s likely to see most of his action at first or DH.

The Reds have a few other third base options — none of whom are likely to push for the job early in the season. Espinal is back as a glove-first infielder. His .247/.300/.348 slash over the past two years points to a utility role. Cincinnati selected Cooper Bowman from the A’s in the Rule 5 draft. He has been a second baseman for most of his career and has 53 professional innings at the hot corner. Even if he sticks on the MLB roster, it’d be in a developmental capacity. Steer and Rece Hinds each played third in the minors but moved off the position for defensive reasons. Prospect Tyler Callihan is on the 40-man roster but has only four career Triple-A games.

How will the Reds divvy up playing time at the hot corner this season?

 

Reds Designate Brandon Leibrandt, Amed Rosario For Assignment

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The Reds announced that infielders Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Matt McLain have been reinstated from the 60-day injured list. To open 40-man roster spots for those two, they designated left-hander Brandon Leibrandt and infielder Amed Rosario for assignment. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer relays on X that the moves were necessary because McLain and Encarnacion-Strand are technically on rehab assignments in the Arizona Fall League and they reached their maximum rehab time, therefore needing to retake spots on the 40-man roster.

The Reds suffered a large number of significant injuries in 2024, with McLain and Encarnacion-Strand two of the biggest losses. McLain underwent left labrum surgery in March and was hoping to come back around August. But he suffered a stress reaction in his rib cage while trying to make his way back and ended up missing the entire season.

Encarnacion-Strand played 29 games but may have been playing hurt as he put up a dismal .190/.220/.293 line in that time. He was hit by a pitch on his hand in April and an X-ray revealed an old fracture that CES couldn’t figure out how he suffered. He went on the IL in May with a right ulnar styloid fracture and eventually underwent surgery in June. That procedure came with a three-month timeline and he wasn’t able to return in the remainder of the regular season.

Both players missed significant time in 2024 but apparently got healthy as the season was ending, so the Reds sent both to the Glendale Desert Dogs of the Arizona Fall League to get some reps before the winter sets in. The Dogs played their first game on October 8 and rehab assignments come with a 20-day maximum for position players. It seems that MLB views their time in the AFL as a rehab assignment, so they had to be reinstated from the 60-day IL today with their rehab window closing.

The moves are largely technicalities, as both players would need to be reinstated from the injured soon regardless. There’s no injured list from five days after the World Series until spring training begins, so all players on the 60-day IL need to be reinstated soon anyway. This rehab formality just forced the Reds to do it slightly ahead of schedule.

Of the two players they bumped off, Rosario was slated to be off the roster soon anyway. He signed a one-year deal with the Rays for 2024, eventually getting traded to the Dodgers before landing with the Reds via waivers. There’s no reason for any club to claim him now, as 28 of the 30 clubs are eliminated. He wouldn’t be postseason eligible with the Yankees or Dodgers since it’s after the September 1 cutoff date. As a veteran with more than six years of service time, he has the right to reject an outright assignment. He’ll soon hit free agency, a few days earlier than anticipated.

Leibrandt, 32 in December, could have been retained for next year as he has less than a year of service time but seemingly wasn’t in Cincinnati’s plans. He signed a minor league deal with the club in May and got added to the roster at the end of August. He stuck on the 40-man for the final month of the season but was mostly on optional assignment. He only got into two major league games this year, allowing seven earned runs in 6 1/3 innings.

He was fairly serviceable in the minors this year, with a 4.41 ERA in 17 Triple-A starts. He had a 22.7% strikeout rate and 6% walk rate. However, he was pitching independent leagues last year and at the start of 2024. As a journeyman sliding towards his mid 30s, he was surely viewed as a temporary option on the club’s roster this year as they dealt with numerous pitching injuries.

As a player with a previous career outright, he has the right to elect free agency as opposed to accepting another outright assignment. Most clubs are facing roster crunches in the coming days, so he’ll presumably clear waivers and return to the open market shortly.

Christian Encarnacion-Strand To Undergo Wrist Surgery

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Reds infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand will have wrist surgery on July 11 and there’s a three-month recovery timeline. If that timeline holds, that means he won’t be able to return during the regular season. Manager David Bell relayed the information to reporters today, with Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer among those to pass it along. X link one and two.

It’s been a frustrating and unusual saga for Encarnacion-Strand. Back at the end of April, he was hit on the hand by a pitch and X-rays were negative but revealed a small pre-existing fracture. The infielder said he didn’t know how that came about and that he wasn’t in any discomfort prior to being hit by that pitch.

He was placed on the injured list about a week later, with the club describing his ailment as a right ulnar styloid fracture. Just over a week ago, Bell revealed that surgery was being considered and it now seems that it has been deemed necessary. Given the three-month recovery timeline, Encarnacion-Strand won’t be able to return this year unless the club makes the playoffs and survives through the middle of October. Even if that does come to pass, it will be a challenge for him to get back into game shape and earn his way onto the roster, so it seems there’s a decent chance his 2024 is effectively done.

That’s a very frustrating blow for Encarnacion-Strand and the club. A highly-touted prospect, he debuted with a splash last year by hitting 13 home runs in his first 63 major league games. He slashed .270/.328/.477 overall for a wRC+ of 112.

He was undoubtedly hoping to build off that with a healthy and productive showing in his first full season, but it hasn’t come to pass. He hit just .190/.220/.293 in his 29 games this year and that will almost certainly be his final line when the year is over. He’s already on the 60-day injured list and is now slated to stay there for the rest of the campaign.

For the team, this just adds to the number of missed opportunities by their players this year. Noelvi Marté was hit with an 80-game PED suspension and has missed the entire season thus far. Injuries have plagued Matt McLain, TJ Friedl and various pitchers on their staff, leaving the club fairly hampered all year long.

Their season is still alive thanks to the weak National League Wild Card race. The Reds are just 37-41 but that is only 2.5 games out of a playoff spot at the moment. That’s somewhat encouraging but it also leads to plenty of “what if” questions amid all the various issues the club has dealt with.

Encarnacion-Strand was the everyday first baseman prior to the landing on the injured list but that job has primarily fallen to Spencer Steer in recent months. Marté could return soon to possibly factor into the third base mix and perhaps that will lead to Jeimer Candelario moving over to first base at times. That could push Steer into a corner outfield role, where Will Benson and Jake Fraley are having underwhelming seasons.

Reds Select Brooks Kriske

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The Reds announced that they have selected the contract of righty reliever Brooks Kriske and optioned him to Triple-A Louisville. Since he is being added to the roster but kept in the minors, he likely had an opt-out of some kind in his contract that the Reds didn’t want him to trigger. To open a 40-man roster spot for him, infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand was transferred to the 60-day injured list.

That presumed opt-out provision won’t immediately get Kriske back to the big leagues, but he was able to leverage it into a spot on the 40-man roster. The 30-year-old inked the minor league deal not long before Christmas. He has made 27 appearances with Louisville, working to a 3.64 earned run average over 29 2/3 innings. Kriske has missed bats in bunches, fanning a third (40 of 120) of the opponents he’s faced.

While Kriske has shown intriguing stuff, he hasn’t had particularly fine command. He has walked more than 14% of opposing hitters with the Bats. That’s not a new issue. Kriske has a lofty 12.7% walk rate in parts of three Triple-A campaigns. His 16.5% mark over 20 career major league appearances is even less tenable — one reason he has allowed 28 runs in 21 1/3 MLB frames.

Kriske’s brief major league time has been split between three franchises. He divided the 2020-21 seasons with the Yankees and Orioles and pitched in four games for the Royals a season ago. Getting onto the 40-man gives him a good chance to return to the big leagues with the Reds at some point. It might take an injury to someone in the current ’pen to do so. Cincinnati only has three relievers in the MLB bullpen who have minor league options: Alexis Díaz, Fernando Cruz and Sam Moll. None of them are getting sent down.

Encarnacion-Strand has been out since the early part of May with a fracture and ligament damage in his right wrist/hand area. His season is in jeopardy depending on whether he needs to undergo surgery. In any case, he certainly won’t be back anytime soon.

Season-Ending Surgeries Possible For Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Brandon Williamson

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TODAY: Williamson will forego surgery for now, Bell told Mark Sheldon (X link) and other reporters, and has instead received injections in his ailing shoulder.  The southpaw will be shut down for at least three weeks to see how his shoulder responds to the treatment, and will then resume throwing if improvement is shown.

JUNE 11: Two players on the Reds may need to go under the knife, according to David Bell, as relayed by Mark Sheldon of MLB.com (X link) and Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer (X link). Infielder Christian Encarnacion-Strand has ligament damage in his fractured hand while left-hander Brandon Williamson has a lesion in his shoulder. Both players will be evaluated in the coming days with season-ending surgery possible for each of them.

Encarnacion-Strand debuted with a splash last year, hitting 13 home runs in his first 63 major league games. He slashed .270/.328/.477 for a wRC+ of 112 while playing first and third base, as well as a brief stint in right field.

That showing got him the everyday first base gig coming into 2024, though the season hasn’t played out the way he or the club hoped. He produced a tepid line of .190/.220/.293 this year before landing on the injured list in early May. He had been hit on the hand by a pitch at the end of April. X-rays after that HBP were negative but revealed an “old fracture” in one of his bones, per Wittenmyer. He continued playing for a little bit longer before eventually being placed on the IL.

He’s been on the IL for over a month now and it seems some further testing discovered some ligament damage. “Surgery is an option,” Bell said today, per Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer on X. “We’re hopeful he can start progressing. If that’s what he and the specialist decide.”

As for Williamson, he’s been on the injured list all year due to a shoulder strain that was diagnosed in spring training. He had been on a rehab assignment of late but that was shut down last week due to continued discomfort.

Once a top 100 prospect, Williamson went from the Mariners to the Reds as part of the March 2022 trade that sent Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker to Seattle. Williamson made his major league debut last year with a 4.46 earned run average that obviously isn’t too exciting, but it’s perhaps notable that his results improved as he got acclimated to the majors. He had a5.82 ERA in his first eight outings but then a 3.79 ERA in his final 15.

The Reds’ season has been significantly affected by absences of potential contributors so far this year. Noelvi Marté received an 80-game PED suspension and has been away from the team all year, while players like Encarnacion-Strand, Williamson, Matt McLain, Nick Lodolo, TJ Friedl and others have missed time due to injuries.

Lodolo and Friedl have since returned to the club and McLain could perhaps rejoin the club in August. If either Encarnacion-Strand or Williamson or both end up requiring surgery, it will deprive the club of another such return later in the year.

The club slumped badly in May but have been quite hot of late, with seven wins in their past eight games. Their 32-34 record isn’t especially impressive but it puts them just half a game back of a playoff spot in the relatively weak National League playoff race. Assuming they hang around the postseason picture in the coming weeks, they may be able to address these issues, if the surgeries are eventually deemed necessary.

For now, Lodolo, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott and Frankie Montas are in four rotation spots with one opening due to the recent optioning of Graham Ashcraft. Internal options to fill the spot include Nick Martinez and Carson Spiers. Williamson would be in that mix if healthy but he would naturally be subtracted if he ends up undergoing the surgery.

On the infield, Spencer Steer has been the regular first baseman lately, with Jonathan India at second, Jeimer Candelario at third and Elly De La Cruz at shortstop, while the designated hitter spot has largely been used to rotate the club’s many outfielders into the lineup. If Encarnacion-Strand were healthy, Steer could have been moved to third or DH or a corner outfield spot, though that possibility is clearly not an option at the moment and may not come into the play at all for the remainder of 2024.

Reds Re-Sign Mike Ford To Major League Deal

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2:40pm: Encarnacion-Strand is going to miss a month to six weeks, manager David Bell tells Charlie Goldsmith of the Cincinnati Enquirer.

2:15pm: Ford’s deal is worth $1.3MM plus incentives, per Mark Sheldon of MLB.com. Assuming that’s prorated, he’ll make just over $1MM for the rest of the year.

1:35pm: The Reds announced Ford’s signing and the corresponding moves. Encarnacion-Strand has been placed on the 10-day injured list with a right ulnar styloid fracture. It’s unclear how long they expect him to be out of action. To open a 40-man spot, lefty Brandon Williamson was transferred to the 60-day IL. He’s been on the 15-day IL all year due to shoulder soreness. Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer reported over a week ago that Williamson will be starting a rehab assignment May 9. He’s now ineligible to be activated until late May, 60 days from his initial IL placement, but he’ll likely need a few weeks to get stretched out anyhow.

12:15pm: The Reds are bringing first baseman/designated hitter Mike Ford back to the organization — this time on a major league contract, reports Jon Heyman of the New York Post. The ZS Sports client will join the big league roster today. Cincinnati hasn’t announced the signing and will need to open a spot on the 40-man roster before Ford’s deal can become official.

It’s the third time Ford has signed with the Reds in fewer than three months. He’s previously signed and opted out of a pair of minor league contracts. The Reds could’ve added Ford to the big league roster when he triggered his opt-out clause last Friday but instead opted to let him become a free agent and test the market. It’s clear based on the number of times they’ve signed him that the Reds like the player, however, and it seems they were willing to match or beat whatever other offers Ford found in his brief foray into early season free agency.

Ford, 31, raked at a staggering .455/.486/.727 clip with three homers in 31 spring plate appearances before opening the season with a gaudy .297/.381/.538 slash in his first 105 Triple-A plate appearances. He’s cut his strikeout rate to a manageable 19.4% and coupled it with a stout 11.4% walk rate during his short time with Louisville.

Those impressive numbers come on the heels of a .228/.323/.475 slash in 251 plate appearances with the 2023 Mariners. Ford clobbered 16 home runs and walked at a strong 9.6% clip last year, but his 32.3% strikeout rate was an obvious eyesore. It was also nothing particularly new for Ford, a former Yankees farmhand who’s long had plus power and questionable bat-to-ball skills. In 719 big league plate appearances, Ford is a career .211/.309/.418 hitter. He’s actually hit fellow lefties better than righties, albeit in a small sample of 108 plate appearances compared to 611 plate appearances against righties.

Ford’s addition to the roster comes at a time when both Christian Encarnacion-Strand is struggling and when fellow lefty DH option Nick Martini has already been optioned to the minors. Encarnacion-Strand has been the primary first baseman in Cincinnati, logging 29 games at the position, but he’s flailed his way to a .190/.220/.293 slash in 123 plate appearances. Encarnacion-Strand has long had contact issues and sub-par walk rates, but this year’s 28.5% strikeout rate and microscopic 3.3% walk rate underscore that worrisome approach at the plate.

Ford will give the Reds a lefty-swinging alternative at first base or perhaps simply a regular option in the DH slot. The Reds have used a wide cast of characters there, but Ford could offer more stability in that role. If Cincinnati goes that route, one solution could be to option the struggling Will Benson (.191/.273/.391, 41.6% strikeout rate) and go with a regular outfield of Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl and Jake Fraley.

NL Central Notes: Imanaga, Pirates, Brewers, Carpenter, Reds

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Before the Cubs signed Shota Imanaga to a four-year, $53MM deal, the other finalists for Imanaga’s services were the Red Sox, Pirates, and Brewers, according to USA Today’s Bob Nightengale.  Boston’s interest in Imanaga was well-known, and Pittsburgh had also been linked to Imanaga’s market, even if the Bucs’ traditional lack of spending makes it somewhat surprising to learn that they apparently came relatively close to landing the southpaw.  Of course, “finalist” is a bit of a nebulous term, and it isn’t known just how close the Pirates might’ve come to Chicago in the bidding.  For instance, the Red Sox offered Imanaga two years and $26MM in guaranteed money according to Alex Speier of the Boston Globe, with two more vesting years covering the 2026 and 2027 seasons.

The Brewers are also a surprise entry, as it wasn’t publicly known that they were in on Imanaga at all, let alone one of the last four suitors in the running for his services.  Milwaukee also often operates with a limited payroll (albeit not as limited as the Pirates’ budget), and it’s interesting to speculate on what the team might’ve offered Imanaga, or whether signing the Japanese star might’ve kept from the Crew from any of their other winter business.  For instance, if the Brewers had signed Imanaga, would they have still had enough spending capacity to bring back Brandon Woodruff and/or Wade Miley, or would any further pitching additions would’ve been strictly of the lower-cost or minor league variety if Imanaga had been the team’s big offseason strike.  As Nightengale observes, any of Imanaga’s other suitors might have some regrets given how the left-hander has gotten his MLB career off to such a great start.

Some other notes from around the NL Central…

  • Matt Carpenter recently received a cortisone shot to deal with the oblique strain that has kept him on the injured list for almost four weeks, MLB.com’s John Denton writes (X link).  The shot led to a shutdown, and it isn’t clear when Carpenter will be ready to begin a minor league rehab assignment, though he has been able to take batting practice.  Carpenter reunited with the Cardinals on a one-year deal this past winter, but played in just three games before suffering his oblique problem.
  • X-rays were negative on both Christian Encarnacion-Strand and Tyler Stephenson after the Reds duo were each hit on the hand by pitches in Saturday’s game.  Encarnacion-Strand might be the slightly more serious situation of the two, as Gordon Wittenmyer of the Cincinnati Enquirer writes that the infielder’s X-ray revealed a small previous fracture in the same spot that CES was hit on Saturday.  Encarnacion-Strand said he had “no clue” about the origin of the older injury, and he hadn’t felt any discomfort prior to this most recent HBP.  It isn’t yet clear if Encarnacion-Strand will get an MRI to further explore the injury, but he hoped to return to the lineup within a day or two.

Reds Seen As Increasingly Likely To Trade Jonathan India

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Reds second baseman Jonathan India, the 2021 National League Rookie of the Year, saw his name pop up on the rumor circuit over the summer and has already been an oft-cited trade candidate in the early stages of the offseason. Recent reports from Bob Nightengale of USA Today and Jeff Passan of ESPN do little to quell the belief that the 26-year-old could change hands this winter. Nightengale wrote over the weekend that Cincinnati is “expected” to trade India this offseason, while Passan writes this morning that the Reds have been suggesting to potential trade partners that India is the “odd man out” in their glut of infielders.

Indeed, the Reds have an enviable crop of young talent on the dirt. Beyond India, they saw former first-round pick Matt McLain, top prospect Elly De La Cruz and trade acquisitions Spencer Steer, Noelvi Marte and Christian Encarnacion-Strand all log time in the big leagues.

McLain was the most impressive of the bunch, hitting .290/.357/.507 with 16 homers and 14 steals in 403 trips to the plate. De La Cruz faded after a hot start but still posted a .235/.300/.410 line with 13 homers and a whopping 35 steals in just 98 games — all while recording intriguing batted-ball metrics per Statcast and showing off his elite speed. Steer, meanwhile, bounced between first base, second base, third base and the outfield corners while delivering a .271/.356/.464 output and 23 homers. Encarnacion-Strand (.270/.328/.477, 13 homers in 241 plate appearances) and Marte (.316/.366/.456 in 123 plate appearances) saw less time than the others but acquitted themselves nicely in their MLB debuts.

It’s an immensely talented quintet — one with plenty of defensive versatility. It seems likely that Encarnacion-Strand will settle in at first base and designated hitter, and Steer clearly enjoyed success at the plate in a nomadic, jack-of-all-trades role (even if he graded as a below-average defender at all five positions). Each of De La Cruz, Marte and McLain can handle shortstop, third base or second base. De La Cruz saw the most time at shortstop of the bunch but also posted lesser defensive grades than McLain. The Reds can tinker with the exact alignment in spring training, but regardless of who’s manning which position, it’s hard not to be bullish on Cincinnati’s emerging core of young infielders.

Given that wealth of talent, it becomes easier to see how India could be the odd man out. He’s yet to replicate his excellent showing in that aforementioned Rookie of the Year campaign, when he batted .269/.376/.459 with 21 home runs, 23 doubles, 12 steals and an 11.3% walk rate. He’s since turned in a .246/.333/.394 batting line in 960 plate appearances, showing diminished power and a walk rate about three percentage points lower than his rookie mark. Defensive Runs Saved and Outs Above Average both cast him as a poor defender at his position.

Due to his former draft status (fifth overall in 2018), prospect pedigree and that Rookie of the Year showing, many fans have speculated that India could be used to help the Reds acquire an upgrade for the front portion of their rotation. However, given India’s struggles with the glove and (over the past two seasons) at the plate, it doesn’t seem all that likely that he’d command a strong rotation piece on his own — or even as the headliner in a package also including lesser prospects.

India is entering his first arbitration season, projected by MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz to earn $3.7MM in 2024, and remains controllable for another three seasons. Those factors, plus his age, are perhaps the Reds’ strongest selling points in trade talks. That said, India feels more like a buy-low candidate than many onlookers might expect for someone who looked like a Reds building block just two years ago. The absolute dearth of quality infield options on the free agent market will play to the Reds’ benefit in drumming up interest, but it seems unlikely that India will fetch them a major upgrade to the starting rotation.

MLBTR’s Darragh McDonald and I discussed India’s potential trade candidacy (among many other topics) on the upcoming episode of the MLB Trade Rumors podcast, and just this past weekend MLBTR’s Nick Deeds took a look at some potential landing spots for India in the event that the Reds ultimately do move him. India placed 11th on MLBTR’s list of the top 25 offseason trade candidates just yesterday.

Reds Promote Christian Encarnacion-Strand, Place Kevin Newman On IL

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July 17: Cincinnati has formally announced the move; Encarnacion-Strand’s contract has been selected from Louisville, which fills the team’s 40-man roster. In a corresponding 26-man roster move, infielder Kevin Newman was placed on the 10-day injured list due to gastritis.

July 16: The Reds are calling up another of their top prospects, as FanSided’s Robert Murray (via Twitter) reports that Christian Encarnacion-Strand is on his way to the majors.  The club may have to make multiple corresponding moves before Monday’s game, as Encarnacion-Strand isn’t yet on the 40-man roster.

A fourth-round pick for the Twins in the 2021 draft, “CES” has done nothing but mash since beginning his pro career, as he has a whopping .322/.386/.604 slash line and 56 homers over 946 career plate appearances in the minors.  This includes hitting .331/.405/.637 with 20 home runs over 316 PA at Triple-A Louisville this year, leaving no doubt that the 23-year-old is ready for a bigger challenge.

It seems quite likely that the Reds would’ve called Encarnacion-Strand up earlier if it wasn’t for the fact that the team is already overloaded with quality prospects.  The additions of star rookies Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have helped spark the Reds back into contention for the NL Central, while Spencer Steer (who made his MLB debut in 2022) has also been a huge contributor.

With the likes of Jake Fraley, Will Benson, and TJ Friedl also producing, the Reds find themselves with an interesting decision to make with Encarnacion-Strand’s position.  CES has played almost all of his career as a corner infielder, with only a pair of games in the corner outfield spots.  But, De La Cruz has been mostly playing third base since his promotion, and longtime star Joey Votto is still in the regular first base/DH mix since his return from the 60-day injured list.  It’s say to predict Encarnacion-Strand as the eventual successor to Votto, but the veteran has been on fire at the plate.

It’s the proverbial “good problem to have” for manager David Bell and Cincinnati’s front office, and it could be the issue may solve itself in the form of an injury or a slump.  Or, the Reds might simply rotate everyone through the lineup and make copious use of pinch-hitting opportunities or late-game substitutions in order to keep everyone (Votto in particular) fresh.  With the deadline approaching, it also isn’t out of the question that the Reds could create space by trading one of their young prospects in a headline deal for a controllable, frontline starting pitcher.  At the very least, it seems like Cincinnati will look to move veterans like Kevin Newman or Nick Senzel, whose playing time has been drastically reduced by the youth movement.

Encarnacion-Strand has made such a rapid rise up the minor league ladder that none of Baseball America, Baseball Prospectus, MLB Pipeline, or The Athletic’s Keith Law had the infielder on their preseason top-100 lists.  He currently checks in 83rd on BA’s ranking and 88th on Pipeline’s ranking, with both outlets praising his natural power and his arm strength.  Questions about CES’ contact hitting seem to have been addressed in his Triple-A season, as his 10.4% walk rate is easily the highest of his three pro seasons, and he has also reduced his strikeout rate to 21.8%.  A slightly more patient version of Encarnacion-Strand is a scary concept for pitchers, given his power and ability to hit to the opposite field.

Cincinnati brought Encarnacion-Strand and Steer into the organization less than a year ago, acquired along with southpaw prospect Steve Hajjar in the trade that sent Tyler Mahle to the Twins at the deadline.  Since the Reds flipped Hajjar to the Guardians as the player to be named later to acquire Benson during the offseason, the Mahle trade has very quickly become one of the most productive swaps in recent team history.  For Minnesota, the trade is already infamous, as Mahle battled injuries and made only nine starts for the Twins before undergoing Tommy John surgery in May.

The Reds’ Less Heralded Breakout Rookie

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The Reds are MLB’s most surprising first-place team heading into the All-Star Break. Cincinnati is nine games above .500 and a game clear of the Brewers in the NL Central. They’re 24-12 since the start of June, largely thanks to an influx of rookie talent.

Elly De La Cruz and Matt McLain have gotten plenty of attention, while Andrew Abbott has quickly ascended to the role of staff ace with Nick Lodolo and Hunter Greene injured. Their midseason promotions have deservedly come with plenty of fanfare. They’re not the only rookies in Cincinnati having quality seasons, though.

Spencer Steer, acquired from the Twins alongside Christian Encarnacion-Strand for Tyler Mahle at last summer’s deadline, first reached the majors in September. While he struggled in that 28-game cameo, the Reds made clear Steer would get a chance to play regularly out of the gate. Cincinnati released Mike Moustakas in January and made Steer their Opening Day third baseman.

The 25-year-old wasn’t long for the hot corner. By the end of April, the Reds had kicked him across the diamond to first base. That put a lot of pressure on the former third-round pick to produce offensively. He’s done just that, finishing the year’s unofficial first half with a .277/.367/.477 batting line over 376 plate appearances. The right-handed hitter has connected on 14 home runs, walked at an excellent 11.2% rate, and kept his strikeouts to a modest 18.9% clip.

Steer has demonstrated a well-rounded offensive profile. He rarely chases pitches outside the strike zone. He’s making contact at an above-average rate. When he puts the bat on the ball, he tends to make solid contact. Just over 40% of Steer’s batted balls have been hit hard (an exit velocity of 95 MPH or greater), a mark that’s a couple percentage points above league average.

Prospect evaluators have generally suggested Steer’s raw power potential is fringe-average. That’s atypical for a first baseman, but he’s shown just enough pop and a knack for getting the ball in the air. Steer hits a number of fly-balls, and while they’re not hit with overwhelming power — his 92.2 MPH average exit velocity on fly-balls is exactly league average — it has been sufficient. That’s particularly true at Cincinnati’s hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park; Steer is slugging .497 with a .204 ISO at home and .461 with a .197 ISO on the road.

That production has been enough to solidify Steer as an everyday presence in David Bell’s lineup. That came mostly at first base in the early summer. He’s seen a little more left field time of late with Joey Votto now healthy. His initial third base position has essentially become De La Cruz’s domain.

Coincidentally, Steer’s excellent start has probably held off Encarnacion-Strand’s debut. The latter is mashing at a .321/.392/.620 clip with 20 homers in 65 games for Triple-A Louisville. He’s done nothing but rake since joining the professional ranks as a fourth-round pick in 2021. On many clubs, Encarnacion-Strand would already be in the majors.

There simply hasn’t been room in Cincinnati. The Reds aren’t going to call up the 23-year-old corner infielder to serve as a bench bat. Votto has been great since returning from the injured list. De La Cruz is entrenched at hot corner with McLain at shortstop. Steer’s presence in the first base/corner outfield/designated hitter mix means there aren’t many at-bats to go around, barring injury.

That’s a nice short-term “problem” to have. Encarnacion-Strand figures to get a crack before too long as injuries necessitate. From a broader perspective, the Mahle trade added a pair of promising infielders to the upper levels of the Cincinnati organization. It looks like a massive coup for the Reds.

Unfortunately for Minnesota, they got very little out of the deal. Injuries kept Mahle to just four starts down the stretch last season. He started five games this year before a May Tommy John surgery ended his season and likely his time as a Twin. The right-hander is headed to free agency and could look for a buy-low two-year deal to finish his rehab with an eye towards a late-2024 return and full ’25 season.

Cincinnati controls Steer through the 2028 campaign. He won’t reach arbitration until after the ’25 season. Encarnacion-Strand is controllable through at least 2029, depending on the time of his MLB promotion and whether he’s subsequently optioned back to the minors. Left-hander Steve Hajjar, the third piece in the Mahle trade, has already been flipped to the Guardians as one of two minor leaguers for outfielder Will Benson.

With Steer contributing at the big league level, the Mahle swap has already helped the Reds emerge as playoff contenders quicker than most had anticipated. They can take the opposite approach to this summer’s deadline, likely by acquiring pitching help.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

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