Yankees Will Negotiate In-Season With A-Rod
Many commenters here at MLBTradeRumors have proclaimed that there is no way the Yankees let Alex Rodriguez leave after this season. They are still a powerhouse team, and they can afford any player.
Those commenters have been validated by Buster Olney’s recent story at ESPN.com. Buster says the Yankees will bend their rules to talk extension with A-Rod before the season ends. The Yanks would want to add on to Rodriguez’s current contract, so he’d have to agree not to opt out. That way Texas will continue footing a portion of the bill.
Would an additional four years (2011-2014) for $120MM do the trick? That would take him through his age 38 season, at which point he would still be probably a season or two short of Bonds’ home run record. But locking him in through 2016 would be akin to a nine-year extension.
Former Dodgers GM Fred Claire believes the Yankees will only stop Rodriguez from exercising his out clause if they offer him something massive, like ten years and $300MM.
Next Stop For A-Rod?
Anthony McCarron of the New York Daily News places odds on his eight most likely destinations for Alex Rodriguez in 2008. In order of likelihood, McCarron names the Angels, Dodgers, Red Sox, Yankees, White Sox, Cubs, Mets, and Giants. The latter two are seen as long shots by McCarron.
The first four picks seem reasonable. I don’t agree with the Chicago teams at 8-1 odds though. Kenny Williams is a bargain shopper; A-Rod’s contract would be more than triple the largest in franchise history. And the deal would be struck with Scott Boras. Not happening. The Cubs I thought had a good chance earlier this year, but not so much anymore. If the ownership situation is thwarting a Carlos Zambrano extension and even a minor Jacque Jones dump trade, I wouldn’t expect it to get resolved in time to hand out a contract that will dwarf even Alfonso Soriano‘s.
I like the Giants more than 50-1, if Barry Bonds leaves but the team retains a win-now mentality. Barry Zito might not be able to serve as the face of the franchise, after all. To be fair, we are only 1/14 through Zito’s contract right now. And the Red Sox with better odds than the Yankees seems questionable.
Some additional possible A-Rod destinations:
- Rangers: I find this idea absurd, but it did appear in print today.
- Blue Jays: He’d probably play shortstop in Toronto. Some money will come off the books this winter, but many salaries escalate by several million for ’08 as well. We have seen Ricciardi make free agent splashes, and he could keep Rodriguez away from the Yankees and Red Sox. Toronto’s $82MM payroll entering ’07 was their highest ever.
- Orioles: Same AL East motivation, plus a way to renew fan interest. And the newfound tolerance of Scott Boras. Ken Rosenthal mentioned in April that the O’s might make an offer.
- Phillies: The Phils could have almost $30MM come off the books for ’08.
- Diamondbacks: They’ve expressed interest in trading for Rodriguez in the past. Josh Byrnes and Co. haven’t made a signing like this yet, but it could represent the next phase in their plan as their young team keeps getting stronger.
- Indians: They’ve inquired about a trade as well, but I really can’t see this happening. Maybe if the Tribe wins the World Series.
We could probably throw a couple more teams in there but that’s the field as I see it.
Goldman On A-Rod
Steven Goldman has a well-reasoned column in the New York Sun today discussing why it’s important for the Yankees to trade Alex Rodriguez. Here’s a hint: they need to restock on position players. It’s not about the tabloid stuff or the infamous "hah!" Personally I like the tactic but wouldn’t use "hah." When I played sandlot ball we used to shout "Confusion! Confusion!" over and over when a couple of guys would get under a pop-up. It worked once in a while.
Basically A-Rod is still a marketable superstar, and the Yankees are going to have plenty of holes in the near future. It’d be best not to patch them up with more $15MM guys. James Loney plus Matt Kemp from the Dodgers would be perfect, if Ned Colletti would do it. Rodriguez would have to waive his no-trade and provide a window for an extension, I imagine.
Such a strategy, however, runs counter to the Roger Clemens signing. Once Clemens hits the Majors the team will be in full win-now mode, so it’s important to decide whether to trade Rodriguez very soon.
Angels To Pass On A-Rod?
ESPN recently interviewed Angels owner Arte Moreno, who speculates that Alex Rodriguez may be looking for a $200MM contract. Moreno’s subsequent argument on why he wouldn’t pick up that tab is suspect.
Moreno believes that since Vladimir Guerrero is one of the best players in baseball and Vlad’s contract had an average annual value of only $14MM, signing A-Rod at $25MM+ would disrespect Guerrero and his teammates. Dan Weber points out that the Halos offered Alfonso Soriano almost $17MM annually…was that disrespectful also? What about Garret Anderson making only $2.5MM less than Vlad?
The reality is that the market was different when the Angels signed Guerrero. He was signed in January of 2004 to the five-year, $70MM pact. In this day and age, that’s a monstrous bargain. A 27 year-old Miguel Tejada would get more than $12MM annually if he signed next winter. I don’t buy the disrespect argument. If Rodriguez is overpriced, just leave it at that and don’t sign him.
The A-Rod Story
The tabloid stuff involving Alex Rodriguez really doesn’t deserve any more press than it’s already gotten, so I’ll keep it brief. I should point out that Stray-Rod has already been suggested in the comments of this post.
It’s tough to call Rodriguez’s next team, as I imagine he wants to get out of the limelight but play for a contender. The thing is, small market teams don’t typically shell out $200MM contracts. The Indians or White Sox seem like decent fits. Chicago media probably wouldn’t put that kind of pressure on Rodriguez’s personal life, though I wouldn’t put it past the Sun-Times.
Barry Rozner likes the fit with the Angels over the Chicago clubs.
Stark’s Latest
Jayson Stark posted a new Rumblings and Grumblings column over at ESPN; it’s definitely worth a read. A summary of his trade rumors:
- GMs calling the Marlins have noticed that the team seems a little more open to trading Dontrelle Willis this year. Miguel Cabrera doesn’t appear to be under discussion. If the Marlins are out of the race in mid-July and a team ponies up with three legimate young regulars, they might be able to pry him away. The D’Backs or Dodgers could probably pull this off without damaging their current group too much.
- Stark says the D-Rays are considering promoting both Evan Longoria and Reid Brignac before the trading deadline, filling out the left side of their infield. Someone would have to be pushed out; maybe B.J. Upton to center, Akinori Iwamura to second, and Rocco Baldelli to another team. Stark reminds us of past interest by the Red Sox. And don’t forget all the interest from Atlanta in December.
- The Rich Harden trade rumors may just reflect frustration on Billy Beane’s part, and not actual availability.
- Stark also debates whether the Rangers would still be on the hook for $21MM if Alex Rodriguez opts out and then the Yankees re-sign him. Right now it’s an open question.
A-Rod Chicago Speculation
The Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers breaks down the factors involved that might result in Alex Rodriguez playing in Chicago in 2008. Let’s break it down in a nifty bullet-point format.
The Cubs
- Rodriguez played under Lou Piniella in Chicago, and the two are said to have a strong relationship. That’s where a lot of this speculation begins. But won’t it just come down to money in the end?
- Third base is fully blocked by Aramis Ramirez, where shortstop is fairly open. The Cubs won’t exercise Cesar Izturis‘s option, but will have Ryan Theriot around. No matter how much A-Rod’s shortstop defense is lacking, I can’t picture it beyond worse than Theriot’s. Piniella might prefer to use Theriot in a superutility role with a focus on second base.
- The Cubs don’t seem to despise Scott Boras, dealing smoothly with him for recent signees Greg Maddux and Jeff Samardzija.
- While the Cubs showed a willingness to sign a player to a ridiculous contract with the Alfonso Soriano deal, the team will be sold after the season. That seems quite likely to interfere with an A-Rod megadeal, even if Jim Hendry says it’s business as usual.
The White Sox
- It’s well-known that the team’s brass likes A-Rod. They flirted with him in 2000 when he first reached free agency.
- The Sox could make room at short or third for Rodriguez, as Joe Crede has been mentioned in trade rumors for some time and Josh Fields is no sure thing. The team seems likely to decline its club option on Juan Uribe.
- Recent White Sox clubs have not gone crazy bidding on free agents. However, the Sox have shown the ability to pony up major cash. In particular I’m thinking of the five year, $55MM deal given to Albert Belle before the 1997 season. That one made Belle the highest paid player in baseball. Like A-Rod, Belle had a clause to opt out if he wasn’t the highest paid player in baseball.
- Unlike the Cubs, the White Sox have had beef with Scott Boras in the past. However, Sox chairman Jerry Reinsdorf said that despite their differences, he would sign a reasonably priced Boras client. Not sure A-Rod would qualify, but if you’re going to spend big bucks you might as well do it on a superstar.
- If the Sox are able to replace Mark Buehrle internally, they’ll have some free cash to account for the difference between Jermaine Dye‘s and Rodriguez’s salaries. I would view A-Rod as Dye’s replacement in the lineup.
I have to give the edge to the White Sox here, as the Cubs will likely be in a state of flux next winter. The Sox seem to be leaning toward rebuilding, though, and I don’t think a $100MM+ contract fits the plan. There should be plenty more speculation over the next several months but I don’t expect Rodriguez to land in Chicago.
Rosenthal’s Latest
The always-interesting Ken Rosenthal has another column up, chock full of rumory goodness. The man knows how to work the phones like no other. Some highlights:
- Rosenthal considers the possibility that Curt Schilling could be the easy choice for the best available free agent starter after this season, with John Smoltz off the board. Even if Carlos Zambrano is out there, Schill would be a better option for teams looking to go short-term. Rosenthal says the Red Sox could revisit extension talks, even though it seemed just a month ago that Schilling was certain to hit the open market. One year and $13MM still looks pretty solid for the Sox.
- The Orioles may make an offer to Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract at year’s end. It’s admittedly a longshot, though the O’s did win the bidding for Miguel Tejada back in December of ’03. If not A-Rod, then the Orioles will chase a "premium center fielder." Translation: Ichiro, Andruw, or Torii. Seems unlikely that Corey Patterson, a Scott Boras client, returns to Baltimore in 2008.
- Rosenthal feels that the Tigers are "almost certain" to exercise Ivan Rodriguez‘s $13MM option for 2008. I agree with that one, especially given the $3MM buyout price. If the best available catchers are indeed Michael Barrett and Paul Lo Duca, Barrett has the clear advantage. The Cubs don’t have any catchers in the pipeline (most teams don’t) so I can’t see why they wouldn’t just give him what he wants. Most likely the Cubs would get a discount.
Call Him Stay-Rod
Just wanted to get in on the fun of using Stay-Rod in a headline. If Mark Feinsand and George King can both use it, then so can I. But now would be a good time to monopolize and trademark some future plays on Rodriguez’s nickname:
Gray-Rod (if his next contract extends him into his 40s)
Whey-Rod (if he is photographed sitting on a tuffet of some kind)
Betray-Rod (if he signs with Boston)
Delay-Rod (if he encounters J.D. Drew-like delays in completing his contract)
I really think Betray-Rod could get some back page mileage one day.
A-Rod Wants To Stay
"I want to stay in New York, no matter what."
It’s amazing what this one historic month has done for Rodriguez. As recently as March, Brian Cashman said an extension was not in the cards. Is that still the case? Would Scott Boras’s highest profile client really just ignore his out clause following perhaps an MVP season?
As you know, Rodriguez has three years and $81MM left on his deal after the 2007 season. Texas is picking up $33MM of that tab, as far as I can tell after looking at the contract details.
According to PECOTA, the Yankees would be getting Rodriguez for $11.6MM less than he’s worth over the 2008-10 seasons. I can see Cashman changing his tune and adding another two years to the contract in exchange for elimination of all the out clauses. But if Rodriguez demands an additional $50MM+ for the 2011-12 seasons, all paid by New York, that might be too much.
By the way, expect no less than five articles tomorrow morning based on the above A-Rod quote.