Crazy Cubs Speculation
My apologies in advance for those who think this site is a little too Cubs-centric. The Needs and Luxuries post was my fault, but it’s only natural for all of the local writers to speculate on ways to improve the club for 2008.
I know some of the Cubs fans who frequent MLBTR take some abuse for off-the-wall speculation. Jacque Jones for someone of value, for example. But honestly, the published newspaper speculation isn’t any better.
- Barry Rozner takes his knee-jerk shots at Aramis Ramirez, who was awful in the three-game set against Arizona. According to Rozner, A-Rod is a "better guy, better fielder, and better hitter." That’s why the newly signed Ramirez should be dealt to make room for him.
- Jeff Vorva wants to sign A-Rod for shortstop, move Theriot to second base, move Mark DeRosa to right field, and sign Torii Hunter for center field. That’s message-board type stuff. And I say again, Theriot’s not a starter.
- Paul Sullivan wants to trade Jason Marquis. Sure, that would be nice. But come on – the Cubs got exactly what everyone expected in Marquis’ first year, maybe even a little better. If Marquis is over 5.00 for the next two years, that should come as no surprise. Sullivan would also like to sign Aaron Rowand off a career year, blocking the Cubs’ best prospect for around $55-60MM.
- Gordon Wittenmyer wants Ryan Theriot leading off, though he was one of the few regular Cubs with an OBP worse than Soriano. Wittenmyer expects the Cubs to cut Mark Prior loose rather than gamble $3MM on him.
- Phil Rogers notes Kerry Wood‘s resurgence as a reliever. If the Cubs want to keep him, it’ll cost more than a million or two this time.
Could A-Rod Save the O’s?
Update: Beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reports that yesterday Miguel Tejada told O’s President of Baseball Operations Andy McPhail, "I don’t care about changing positions if we’re going to be a winner, and I want to be on a team that is going to compete and win." That is a change of tune from the once stubborn shortstop. Orioles Manager Dave Trembley also said, "I fully expect that he’ll be a major part of this team next season."
The Orioles pitchers have been going the extra mile to make Alex Rodriguez feel at home in Camden Yards this weekend, writes Peter Schmuck. Schmuck doesn’t add too much to the notion; however, he does suggest that, for a team at the mercy of indecision – do we sign big names or rebuild from within? – Alex Rodriguez, should he opt out of his contract, is one apparent solution.
The O’s need desperately to revive their franchise and A-Rod could certainly do that. A new long term contract for Arod will have him chasing baseball’s greatest records with whom he signs. Meanwhile, Miguel Tejada will either be moved to 3B or another team. Considering his decline in defense, productivity, and attitude it seems the Orioles should lower their demands and trade him this offseason. That would open up an obvious hole at shortstop, a spot once celebrated by Cal Ripken, and an opportunity that could entice Rodriguez and save the Orioles.
That said, I’m not sure the O’s could afford a potential $30MM player. They have a total payroll of $93.5MM in 2007, already up 20% from 2006, and at an all-time high. If they deal Tejada, it’s probable they swallow some of his $13MM/year. The departure of Benson and Wright free up another $14MM. If they could void Jay Gibbons‘ contract, they’d be looking in the ballpark of $30MM before arbitration for Erik Bedard and others, various departures, etc. It seems probable they would have to again increase payroll to afford A-Rod.
Posted by: Nat Boyle
A-Rod, Partial Cubs Owner?
UPDATE: Boras debunked the report. Well, it was fun to discuss for a few hours.
Deadspin‘s Will Leitch has an article in New York Magazine dissecting the Alex Rodriguez opt-out situation. Leitch, through a source, has a new piece of info for us sure to generate some discussion. He lists the Red Sox and Cubs as the teams most likely to lure A-Rod away from the Yankees, and lays out a unique Cub contract possibility:
Scott Boras knows which [ownership] group is most likely to be awarded the Cubs. The source says Boras has already been in touch with that group about the possibility of a contract that could reach $30 million a year over the next ten years while deferring a certain portion of money toward an eventual stake in the franchise.
David K. Li’s source feels that this might constitute tampering. The group Leitch is likely referring to is the one headed by John Canning, who is currently a part-owner of the Brewers.
Pretty wild stuff. Cubs fans can salivate over a lineup featuring Alfonso Soriano, Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, and A-Rod. Keep all of those guys healthy the next few years and they could have the league’s best offense. Still, ten year contracts are pretty rare and quite risky. It’s tough to project a player more than a few years out, but it’s going to take at least eight years to sign Rodriguez.
The Cubs have roughly $110MM on the books for 2008 (more on that in a separate post). They entered the ’07 season with a payroll right around $100MM. Even in a backloaded deal I’d imagine A-Rod would earn $20MM+ in his first year. So if the Cubs want to go past the $130MM mark, they could have Rodriguez. That’d put the Cubs third in payroll behind only the Yankees and Red Sox.
More On Bonds
All the sportswriters have had a chance to weigh in on possible destinations for Barry Bonds in 2008. Here’s a summary.
- Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus seems the Padres and A’s as the top two possibilities.
- Fielding guru John Dewan rates Bonds’ defense ahead of Manny Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Josh Willingham, and Pat Burrell this year. He’s still bad, but maybe we shouldn’t rule out the NL after all.
- Bruce Jenkins says there’s no market but seems to consider Seattle a possibility. Interesting note: Jenkins also mentions that Bonds cleared waivers in August.
- Jack Curry of the New York Times likes the Angels, A’s, and Rangers.
- Before we start penciling Bonds into the Oakland lineup, Susan Slusser reminds us that Jack Cust is effective and cheap as the team’s DH.
- Rangers manager Ron Washington says he would’ve liked having Bonds on his team this year. However, he sees the A’s as the favorite.
- Kevin Kernan of the New York Post thinks this puts the Giants in the A-Rod sweepstakes. Would Rodriguez want to join a team that is basically rebuilding?
A-Rod And The Angels
With the Yankees starting a series in L.A. on Monday, it was only natural for some Alex Rodriguez to the Angels speculation to surface. Indeed, George King of the New York Post and Ben Villa of the L.A. Daily News mention the topic this morning.
King’s not completely sold that the Yankees will abstain from bidding if Rodriguez opts out. As for Scott Boras, he’s not concerned about Brian Cashman’s assertion regarding the opt-out clause.
Still, King notes that the Angels are one of few teams that can afford a $30MM player. And Arte Moreno would love the marketing boost. Moreno said in June that paying A-Rod $25MM+ would be disrespectful to other Angels players, despite the team’s seven-year, $118MM offer to Alfonso Soriano. Most folks believe Moreno is just posturing, and I’m inclined to agree. I think they’ll be involved if Alex opts out.
Villa simply mentions "whispers in the air" about the Angels pursuing Rodriguez this winter.
Don’t forget the Red Sox, who are expected to make a "huge push" for A-Rod if he opts out.
Latest From Baseball Prospectus: Jacque, Snell
Will Carroll and John Perrotto have teamed up at BP to join the rumor mill, and yesterday’s post is free to nonsubscribers. Some highlights:
- Carroll reports that the Cubs could swap Jacque Jones and a prospect for Jeff Conine. Perhaps such a move would be in tandem with Adam Dunn leaving Cincinnati. The Cubs might want to hold on to Jones though; he’s playing well lately.
- Carroll heard a far out Alex Rodriguez to the Dodgers rumor, but doesn’t buy it. Neither do I – the Yankees don’t seem to be selling. Carroll says Brian Cashman and Co. will wait until the last second to make a buyer/seller decision. There’s a slight chance Jorge Posada becomes available if they choose the latter.
- Perrotto confirms a rumor that surfaced a week ago, that Ian Snell could be had for the right bat. Perrotto would know, as he spent time as a Pirates’ beat writer. Jarrod Saltalamacchia or Matt Kemp are two possible targets for the Bucs.
- The Tigers may be looking for relievers, and some possible names on the radar include Chad Qualls, Dan Wheeler, Brad Lidge, Salomon Torres, Damaso Marte, Shawn Chacon, and Chad Cordero. That’s most of the market right there, though Lidge seems likely to stay put. And don’t forget that the Tigers have internal reinforcements on the way.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Lohse, Hunter, Contreras
The latest trade and signing rumors from Ken Rosenthal:
- Rosenthal believes Alex Rodriguez‘s ability to play shortstop could increase the number of suitors. Take a look at the free agents – there may not be a single viable option at short this winter. Still, the number of suitors for Rodriguez is severely limited by his massive contract requirement. Not too many clubs aside from the Yankees and Red Sox can get in on $240MM over eight years or whatever. The lack of available, reasonably priced shortstops could compel the Braves and Orioles to aggressively shop Edgar Renteria and Miguel Tejada.
- As a 29 year-old free agent starter with decent stuff, Scott Boras could sell Kyle Lohse as the next Gil Meche this winter. Meche’s work in the season’s first three months would only aid the wishcasting. I put up a little Lohse history here, writing that his deal will likely fall somewhere between Jason Marquis and Meche. Other free agent starters who will be under 30 for the 2008 season: Carlos Zambrano, Jason Jennings, Joe Kennedy, and Byung-Hyun Kim.
- Rosenthal believes the Rangers will bid on Torii Hunter this winter unless they acquire a proven center fielder this summer. He mentions that Jon Daniels set his sights on Shane Victorino but the Phils would rather trade Michael Bourn. Unless the Rangers get a proven guy they will still go after Hunter.
- The Mariners scouted Jose Contreras and Matt Morris recently, but both were lousy. I still think Jennings could sneak in there as the best available starter, but he too hasn’t pitched well in July. Definitely seems like the Mariners will snag some kind of starter.
- Rosenthal disputes Evan Grant’s report of the Brewers and Indians showing interest in Kenny Lofton. The Brewers are getting Bill Hall back soon and the Indians have some outfielders on the road to recovery as well. Perfect, this frees him up for the Cubs!
- Rosenthal mentions the same teams I did for Kevin Millar, but sees an August deal as a possibility. Waiting until August doesn’t seem to make sense for the Orioles, as things get trickier then.
- The Padres could trade Scott Linebrink in order to make payroll room for a starter. Or they could just sign Brian Lawrence. I discussed some other options for the Friars here.
Red Sox Will Pursue A-Rod This Winter
According to Bill Madden and Mark Feinsand, the Red Sox will make a "huge push" for Alex Rodriguez this winter if he opts out of his contract. The New York Daily News writers heard this from multiple sources.
Madden and Feinsand’s source seems to indicate the push for A-Rod would be driven by team president and CEO Larry Lucchino. In other words, this wil go past Theo Epstein (Buster Olney indicated today that he’d be loathe to tie up 20% of the payroll in one player).
The Red Sox entered 2007 with a $143MM payroll, up $23MM from 2006. Here are the major changes we can expect for 2008:
Additions:
$2MM more for Manny Ramirez
$1MM more for Julio Lugo
$2MM more for Daisuke Matsuzaka
$3.5MM more for Josh Beckett
$1.25MM more for Coco Crisp
An additional $9.75MM in escalating salaries
Subtractions:
$13MM for Curt Schilling
9.5MM for Matt Clement
$9MM for Mike Lowell
$2.81MM for Eric Hinske
$4MM for Joel Pineiro
$2.8MM for Mike Timlin
$41.11MM off the books
The Red Sox are essentially gaining $31MM to play with for 2008, if they are to keep payroll around $143MM. That gels nicely with the expected salary of Rodriguez. And the team isn’t overflowing with needs – they could conceivably just replace Schilling with Clay Buchholz and keep Julian Tavarez around as the fifth starter. And maybe they’ll toss another $6MM or so toward crappy veteran relievers. The trio of Papelbon, Okajima, and Delcarmen could be cheap and effective.
Bottom line: the Red Sox could sign A-Rod this winter and enter 2008 with a reasonable $150MM payroll (less than a 5% increase and still far less than the Yankees).
Rosenthal’s Latest Video: A-Rod, Willis
There’s a new video up with Ken Rosenthal contributing. Let’s see what the man had to say this time:
- According to Rosenthal, Alex Rodriguez will opt out, and he will get $30MM a year. The coverage of this story is just beginning, unfortunately.
- The Marlins have been telling teams they won’t move Dontrelle Willis; they think they’re still in contention. The Fish are 7.5 out in the NL East and 8 out for the Wild Card. The simulations I’ve seen give the Marlins a 1-3% chance at making the playoffs. Would Willis command a stronger package of prospects if dealt now or during the offseason? Dave George thinks his stock will continue to fall, and he needs a change of scenery (Willis heard boos at home for maybe the first time last night). However, Rosenthal’s contention is supported by Juan C. Rodriguez – apparently, only one scout was at Willis’s start last night (a Royals guy who lives in Florida anyway).
Yanks Done With A-Rod If He Opts Out
It’s not exactly a shock that the Yankees would not strike a contract extension with Alex Rodriguez if he chooses to opt out of his contract. The worst possible scenario for the Yankees is to abandon the $29MM the Rangers owe him and participate in open bidding for the superstar.
On the plus side, there’s no real downside for Rodriguez if he hammers something out to allow the Yankees to keep the Rangers’ money. Scott Boras has his price and if the Yankees won’t meet it, Rodriguez will leave. It still seems like something gets done before Rodriguez’s November 10th opt-out deadline. Knowing Boras, it will probably be completed on that day. But not before thousands of words are wasted breaking down every freakin’ quote.
Meanwhile, Jorge Posada wants to experience free agency. Neither he nor Mariano Rivera have had contract talks with the Yankees. Buster Olney adds that the Yankees will wrap up deals with Rivera and Posada before dealing with Rodriguez. I can see the Cubs making an offer to Posada this winter.