Gammons’ Latest: Bailey, Crisp, Giants
ESPN’s Peter Gammons posted to his blog yesterday; let’s take a look.
- More negative vibes around the Reds’ Homer Bailey. His apparent availability seems odd given his talent. Bailey was described by an evaluator friend of Buster Olney as "someone who thinks he’s got it all figured out."
- Gammons likes the fit of Barry Bonds in Seattle, but sees Jeff Clement as the team’s DH in the event that Richie Sexson starts to repeat his ’07.
- The A’s still like Coco Crisp, but the Red Sox want young catching and/or pitching that the A’s would prefer to keep. Susan Slusser wrote on Saturday that talks between the two clubs had revived.
- Giants scouts are apparently handing out a list to other teams with almost a dozen available players (basically all the veterans). The Giants currently have nine pitchers vying for three bullpen spots.
Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Barry Bonds
The biggest name remaining in the free agent market is one Barry Lamar Bonds. The most recent rumored destinations for the all-time home run champ have been the Rays, Mets and even Japan. The Rays say there was never any serious consideration and the Mets say they are not interested.
The biggest question mark concerning Bonds is whether his production at age 43 is worth the circus that follows, both in the clubhouse and in the media. Yesterday at my home base, Rays Index, I contacted Chone Smith of Anaheim Angels All The Way, and creator of the CHONE projection system. Smith had used his projection system to predict that the final regular season standings. The Rays are projected to win 89 games and finish third in the AL East, based on a considerable improvement in pitching and defense. The Mets are projected to win 92 games.
In an effort to estimate Bonds’ on-field impact, we asked Smith to substitute Bonds into the Rays and Mets lineups and rerun his projections. With Bonds in the lineup, both the Mets and the Rays improved by 3 games in the standings and approximately 30 net runs (As an Angels fan, Smith kindly refused to run the same projection for the Mariners or the A’s, lest those teams start thinking Bonds is a good idea).
If the Rays are indeed an 87-89 win team (PECOTA projects 88 wins), then Bonds might be a difference-maker. While signing Bonds may indeed be a headache, the difference between 89 wins and 92 wins for the Rays could be the difference between the 2007 Brewers (just missed) and the 2007 Rockies (World Series). And the difference between 92 wins and 95 wins for the Mets could be the difference between the 2007 Mets (one game short) and the 2007 Phillies (one game not short).
To quote one commenter from Rays Index, "Media scrutiny is only hard if you suck. If you’re good, it’s fun."
Let’s take a look at what else is being said about Bonds in the Blogosphere…
If there is a topic you would like to see covered in "Baseball Blogs Weigh In" please let me know HERE.
- Squawking Baseball thinks the Angels could be a solid fit for Bonds.
- Baseball Musings will miss Bonds if he doesn’t play this year, and lists several teams that should consider signing him.
- Amazin’ Avenue explores "The Bonds Market" and express their desire for the Mets to sign the aging slugger, calling the apparent blackballing "disgraceful".
- Mike’s Mets doesn’t see Bonds as a clubhouse cancer and thinks he would be good for the Mets, but does not think he will fit from a financial perspective.
- Bugs & Cranks feels that the Dodgers would have a much better shot at winning the NL West if they signed Bonds.
Cork Gaines writes for Rays Index and can be reached here.
Mets Have No Interest In Bonds
A couple New Yorker-perspectives on the Mets interest in Barry Bonds:
First, The NY Daily News reports that the Mets have "laughed off" the idea, saying,
"…a high-ranking Mets official insisted there is no interest in taking on the monumental baggage – which includes charges of perjury and obstruction of justice – stemming from the out-of-work home run king’s involvement in baseball’s ongoing steroids mess."
And Joel Sherman at the New York Post has joined in on the fun,
"Of course the Mets should enlist Barry Bonds. He fits their program perfectly. He is old, injury prone and very likely will not respect the manager."
This isn’t new – MLBTR discussed Buster Olney’s recommendation of the Mets signing Bonds here, and MLBTR readers seemed to see this as a good move, despite Omar Minaya’s stated reluctance. As it stands, it doesn’t seem to be in consideration.
By Nat Boyle
Olney On Bonds And The Mets
ESPN’s Buster Olney makes a pretty strong case for the Mets signing Barry Bonds. Bonds is a lot like Moises Alou, only a better hitter with more baggage. Jeff Sackmann only saw six teams as possible fits for Bonds; the Alou injury might make the Mets the seventh (although Alou missing a month of the regular season was a given). The Mets could get a ton of value from left field if they somehow kept these two from being injured simultaneously.
Olney argues that Bonds is the one available impact bat who can be acquired for only money. And the Mets haven’t been terribly concerned with a few steroid-linked players coming through town. I agree with everything he’s saying, and I think New York fans wouldn’t mind so much if Bonds helped them win a World Series. However, Omar Minaya mostly dismissed the idea of signing Bonds or Sammy Sosa.
A more likely option is Marcus Thames, though Jon Paul Morosi believes Jim Leyland’s fondness for him might preclude a trade.
Odds and Ends: Lowry, Mantei, Inge
Link time!
- The White Sox had a scout watching Noah Lowry‘s disaster yesterday. Maybe that affected him.
- Todd Zolecki says Ruben Amaro Jr. is the frontrunner for the Phillies’ GM job next year, with Mike Arbuckle the other main candidate. Meanwhile, Bob Ford thinks the Phils should’ve paid $200K for Cole Hamels‘ happiness.
- Looks like Matt Mantei’s comeback attempt may come to an end. Despite Jim Leyland’s comments, you have to think Dave Dombrowski will troll the market for relievers. Leyland also talked about how he’s not going to force Brandon Inge to catch.
- Jeff Sackmann discusses some clubs that would stand to gain around three wins by signing Barry Bonds.
- Jonathan Papelbon‘s contract is likely to be renewed today, and he’s probably not getting $900K.
- Tom Haudricourt offers up a primer on renewals, arbitration, free agency, all that stuff.
Odds And Ends: Crede, Marlins, Canó, Bonds
Some interesting tidbits this afternoon before I check out:
- Henry Schulman of the San Francisco Chronicle reports that one of Brian Sabean’s top advisors, Ted Uhlaender, was present to witness Joe Crede’s homer off of Arizona’s Max Scherzer on Saturday. Seems more and more likely, as Crede proves his back is fine, that he will be moved to the Giants. Will the White Sox get Kevin Correia in exchange for Crede? The White Sox need a back-of-the-rotation guy, and Kenny Williams and company think they can win this year. So prospects probably won’t get it done. While the Giants could conceivably use Rich Aurilia or Kevin Frandsen at third, Sabean will most likely be unable to resist Crede’s 2006.
- Juan Rodriguez of the Sun-Sentinel digs up this little tidbit: The Florida Marlins haven’t signed a player to a multi-year contract since December 2005, when they signed Carlos Delgado to a four-year, $55MM contract, and Paul Lo Duca to a three-year, $18MM deal. One would hope that this trend will end soon enough, and that owner Jeff Loria will open the purse strings for Hanley Ramirez when the time is right.
- Tyler Kepner of The New York Times explores the relative surprise that Robinson Canó has been considering his draft position and reputation as a prospect, and details how frequently the Yankees almost dealt him before he made the big club. Canó was nearly dealt for Alex Rodriguez, Carlos Beltrán, and Randy Johnson in different instances.
- AP Sports Writer Bob Baum explains that Bud Selig isn’t trying to keep Barry Bonds from being signed. Selig stressed that each club is free to deal with whomever they please.
Best Fit For Bonds: Atlanta?
UPDATE: Martin Johnson at The Root is taking a path-less-tread by calling for a "happy ending" to the Barry Bonds saga. He says Bonds can still hit, and where better than Pittsburgh, a city in need of attendance since Bonds left in 1992. Personally, I can’t see how Bonds can be anything more than a DH, which nixes this suggestion. Further, San Fran teammate Dave Roberts was quoted saying Bonds "is going to want to be in a situation where he can win," and the Pirates are not that. Still, Martin says,
"Bonds should offer his services to his first pro team, The Pittsburgh Pirates, and offer to play for the league minimum salary… Bonds has made $188 million playing baseball; in the name of boosting his public image, he can afford a pay cut."
What better way to start your week than with a Barry Bonds update? I’ll start by pointing to Tim’s recent survey that the majority of MLBTR readers (60.2%) don’t think Bonds will play for a Major League team in 2008.
Still, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune explores the best fits for Bonds. Somehow, the Rays are still being considered an option here. We’re going back and forth at this point, as Peter Gammons had last reported there was nothing there, so I’m sorry if I’m beating a dead horse.
"Last week’s mini-firestorm about the Tampa Bay Rays’ interest in Bonds was not a smoke screen. Despite general manager Andrew Friedman saying this was a "non-story" there’s no doubt the St. Petersburg Times had it right. The Rays, especially principal owner Stuart Sternberg, are monitoring the availability of Bonds, who still might be capable of a 40-homer season at Tropicana Field."
Rogers notes payroll isn’t a hurdle for Tampa Bay. And he tosses in his opinion:
"If Friedman wanted to really roll the dice, he would sign Bonds and then trade his most marketable chip, Carl Crawford, for pitching and prospects."
Rogers then explores the idea of Atlanta being the best possible destination, "The best fit of all for Bonds could be in Atlanta, however, with a hole in left field and Bobby Cox to keep him in line."
Gammons’ Latest: Bonds, Murton
ESPN’s Peter Gammons has a new blog post with some hot stove info.
- Gammons has a quote from Andrew Friedman that should be the final word on Barry Bonds to Tampa Bay: If I didn’t entertain ideas, be it a signing of a great hitter like Bonds or a trade, I should be fired. But that is past. Let’s take Friedman at his word and rule Bonds out for the Rays.
- Gammons notes that the Cubs have discussed Matt Murton with the Rangers and Red Sox, but he alone wouldn’t get them Marlon Byrd or Coco Crisp. Murton was drafted 32nd overall by Boston in ’03, and then traded to the Cubs a year later in the Nomar Garciaparra deal. Murton would remain pretty well blocked in Boston though.
Odds and Ends: Fields, Garcia, Bonds
Welcome to today’s roundup…
- Josh Byrnes would never give a pitcher eight years, just so you know (hat tip AZ Snakepit).
- South Side Sox explains how Josh Fields was posturing in not signing his contract. Unrelated interesting fact – Fields seemed headed to Florida in a Miguel Cabrera for a split-second in December.
- Bobby Jenks‘ salary is set to skyrocket next year, as he becomes arbitration-eligible.
- Freddy Garcia‘s agent talks about the Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox for his client. Garcia is targeting a June or July return.
- DRays Bay’s free season preview guide is now available. Speaking of the Rays, owner Stuart Sternberg may be willing to spend some money for midseason acquisitions if need be. And he "sounded as if he were open" to the idea of signing Barry Bonds, according to Marc Topkin.
Rays Never Serious About Bonds
The whole Barry Bonds to Tampa Bay storyline has been well overblown, as Cork Gaines has written numerous times. Jon Heyman recently talked to a "Rays person" who put the odds at 100 to 1.
Bonds’ agent, Jeff Borris, says "People are being cheated" by not being able to see Bonds play. Interesting choice of words. Beyond the mild Tony La Russa flirtation, Heyman notes one anonymous AL GM who wanted Bonds but had his owner veto the idea.
Let’s see what MLBTR readers think about this situation. Will Barry Bonds play for a Major League team in 2008? Take the survey here and look at the results here.