Barry Bonds In 2008
From his recent quotes, it appears that Barry Bonds has every intention of playing in 2008. You may recall that he asked the Giants for an easily attainable ’08 option this winter but couldn’t get it. There was even some chatter about Bonds wanting to play in ’09. At the least, he’ll need to play next year if the next goal is 3,000 hits. Assuming Bonds gets around 27 more hits this year, he’ll still be 57 short of the milestone. We’re talking late June/early July of ’08.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe asks the logical question: which team will have him? There are many factors to consider:
- Contract: Cafardo mentions that Bonds is paid $17MM this year. However, it’s more like $20MM if he reaches all of his plate appearance incentives. If Bonds can reach 525 PAs this year – which he should if he plays 135 games – he’ll earn $4.2MM in incentives on top of his $15.8MM base salary. Maybe no team will pay it, but Bonds will probably be asking for something close to $20MM to play in 2008. Only a handful of teams can afford such an expensive player.
- Indictment: The grand jury reconvenes in September, and Bonds is likely to be indicted on tax evasion and perjury charges. Bonds could also face suspension from Bud Selig or may just be wrapped up in court for a while. He could even face jail time sometime in ’08, I believe. His current contract allows the Giants to terminate if he’s indicted; a new one would have to have a similar provision.
Will the Giants finally move on from Bonds? That’s an open question. Bonds wants to stay, GM Brian Sabean probably wants to move on, and Giants owner Peter Magowan might want him to finish his career as a Giant. The Giants remain his most likely suitor.
Cafardo dismisses the A’s, Pirates, Yankees, Angels, Orioles, Padres, Twins, Mariners, and Tigers for various reasons. One suitor he didn’t mention: the Rangers. Bonds was apparently close to signing with them last winter.
Bonds And #755
An interesting fact occurred to me today after noticing Barry Bonds cranked #755 off Clay Hensley. Hensley tested positive for performance enhancers back in April of 2005. Seems more fitting than if Bonds had nailed one off Greg Maddux. Sometimes we forget the little people busted for performance enhancers. Fortunately Baseball’s Steroid Era is keeping track.
Is it possible that Bonds could crank #756 off a once-juiced pitcher too? Probably not, unless he enters a long slump until the Giants face the Brewers on the 24th. In that case he could nail one off Derrick Turnbow.
Rosenthal’s Latest: Santana, Glaus
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up, dealing more in speculation that actual rumors. Nothing wrong with that.
- Rosenthal as well as Barry Bonds‘s agent believe the Giants will retain him for the 2008 season. However, Brian Sabean could begin to rebuild nonetheless. The patchwork aging veteran approach of 2007 need not be repeated.
- It would be interesting to see what Terry Ryan could get if he made an uncharacteristically bold move by trading Johan Santana this summer. He would be able to get one or two of the very best young players in the game. Keep in mind, though, that Santana has a full no-trade clause this year. He gets the same for ’08 with a top three Cy Young finish this year. Santana wants to stay in Minnesota, and would offer a hometown discount.
- Rosenthal speculates that if J.P. Ricciardi would deal within the division, maybe the Yankees could get Troy Glaus as A-Rod insurance. Glaus could play first base for the remainder of this season. Ricciardi isn’t shopping Glaus though; he said he’d need to be knocked over to break up the core lineup. That would mean one of the Yankees’ much-hyped pitching prospects (not Hughes, but something good).
Rosenthal’s Latest
Ken Rosenthal has a new column up. A summary appears below.
- Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options. That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
- The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle. Strictly a rental. That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
- The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira. Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
- Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks. They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day. The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters. If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump. Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
- Barry Bonds‘s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening. Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate. Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
- Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley.
- Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him. Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
- Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere. Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
- The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth. Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned. The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons.
Stark’s Latest
ESPN’s Jayson Stark has his latest Rumblings and Grumblings column up, and it’s chock full o’ rumors.
- Stark speaks to one NL exec who thinks any Barry Bonds trade rumor is hogwash. That source believes that there would be no market for him. Personally, I don’t buy it. There would only be $8MM or so left on the deal, and as a two-month DH Bonds could make a huge impact on a contender. And he did indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause.
- Word is that the Mets wouldn’t trade Lastings Milledge for an impending free agent – Mark Buehrle included. Milledge could go in a Dontrelle Willis deal though.
- The Braves are seen as a more likely suitor for Buehrle, once he’s truly made available in a week or two. Atlanta won’t settle for a Mike Maroth type. What would the Braves give up for Buehrle? Kenny Williams should pry away Jarrod Saltalamacchia if he can. Otherwise a package involving Brent Lillibridge or Brandon Jones would make sense.
- Meanwhile, the market on Jermaine Dye seems tepid. It would help if he was healthy and hitting. Ah, alliteration.
- Stark debunks the popular Ken Griffey Jr. to Atlanta rumor. He says the Braves aren’t looking for big contract commitments and are more focused on pitching than offense. Rightfully so.
- The Yankees have added Scott Hatteberg to their list of first base targets. As if they needed more OBP.
Could Bonds Be Dealt In A Giants Firesale?
Andrew Baggarly of the San Jose Mercury News spoke extensively with both Giants GM Brian Sabean and Barry Bonds, and some interesting information emerged.
First off, Bonds’ comments seem to indicate he’d waive his no-trade clause if a need arose. Let’s say he hits #756 July 18th against Rich Hill. That would work out nicely for the Giants, as the interest in Bonds as a sideshow would wane after he broke the record. Sabean could ditch the $8MM or so remaining on his 2007 contract and the Giants could finally move on. Bonds might be a nice fit for the Mariners for a couple of months. The Twins would benefit even more, but that scenario seems highly unlikely. The Angels or A’s could definitely make a push and find some room for Bonds.
Baggarly’s article also has Brian Sabean acknowledging that the Giants may have to go into sell mode. Baggarly names Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Rich Aurilia, Matt Morris, Pedro Feliz, and Steve Kline as veterans who could be sent packing. Might as well throw in Ryan Klesko, Randy Winn, and Dave Roberts. If you’re going to have a firesale, don’t hold back.
The Red Sox could snag Winn or Roberts as a stopgap in center field, but both are signed through 2009. Not the easiest contracts to move. Matt Morris could net a nice return. With a 3.21 ERA, has has to be at the peak of his value. He earns $9.5MM this year, $9.5MM in ’08, and has a club option for $9MM with a $1MM buyout attached for ’09. The Mariners, Phillies, Braves, and Astros could be possibilities.
Rangers Pursued Bonds
Fairly odd story about Barry Bonds‘s rich friends in USA Today yesterday. I suppose it’s not a bad thing to see a positive angle for a much-maligned player.
There was one interesting, rumor-related part – Bonds was close to signing with a mystery club last winter, and it was the Rangers. Maybe this kind of "outside the box" thinking by Jon Daniels could result in a trade for Jason Giambi, or comebacks for Rafael Palmeiro and Juan Gonzalez. Let’s be honest – teams only care about steroid use to the extent that it gives them bad PR or wasted dollars. I forget where I read it but it does seem strange that Sammy Sosa‘s 600th home run is being viewed in a positive light but Barry’s quest for 756 is the opposite. If Sammy passes Willie Mays in two or three more years, will baseball celebrate?
Anyway, back to the Rangers rumor. I vaguely remember the Bonds/Mystery Team thing last winter, but thought it was made up by his agent. We got swept up in the Mystery Team phenomenon with studs like Steve Trachsel and Tomo Ohka last winter as well. In the past two years, we have heard such teams as the Padres, A’s, and Cardinals connected to Bonds. The Cards seemed like the Mystery Team for a few hours, but Walt Jocketty quickly denied it.
Could Giants Hold Fire Sale?
Dave Del Grande of the Oakland Tribune hopes the Giants are out of the playoff chase by July. His plan: fire Brian Sabean, then trade Barry Bonds, Ray Durham, and Matt Morris. He’d like to hold the Bonds auction post-record – the best of both worlds for the Giants.
Here’s the thing about the Giants playing for 2010 – they’re stuck with a massive Barry Zito contract, and he’ll be earning $18-20MM a season for mediocre pitching at that point. Despite being a seven-year deal, it’s backloaded so the team can make one last run. Zito earns just $10MM this year, and the Giants have to take advantage.
They’re also tied down to Dave Roberts, Bengie Molina, and Randy Winn through 2009. Rich Aurilia is theirs through 2008. Could a new GM really unload every single contract? There are some really bad ones in here.
It might make more sense for the Giants to go all-out and make one last push this summer if they’re anywhere close. This has definitely been Sabean’s m.o. – his July acquisitions have included Jason Schmidt, Kenny Lofton, Sidney Ponson (he was good once, kids), and Randy Winn. All of those moves were designed to provide short-term boosts. Tim Lincecum will be a shot in the arm as well.
Bonds May Shoot For 3,000 Hits
Yesterday, Barry Bonds distanced himself from his agent’s outlandish claims, seemingly crowning Alex Rodriguez as the one to watch for the career HR record. Even he realizes that 1,000 home runs is absurd.
Back on February 6th, Tom Verducci’s story had Bonds telling the Giants this winter, through his agent, that he wanted to play in 2008 and probably 2009 as well. Yesterday Bonds sounded more focused on playing this season and emerging healthy. A lot can happen between now and 2009.
The New York Times speculates that Bonds may stick around long enough to reach 3,000 hits. That would require him to play in 2008.
Bonds To Play in ’08, ’09?
According to Tom Verducci of SI.com, Barry Bonds told the Giants this winter through his agent that he has no plans to retire after the ’07 season and probably won’t after the ’08 season either. He originally asked the Giants for an easily attainable option for ’08, but couldn’t get it.
Verducci says Bonds’s agent has raised the possibility of 1,000 home runs. Perhaps Bonds doesn’t like the idea of A-Rod coming along and wiping out his record?
But for Bonds to hit another 266 home runs after age 42…that seems ridiculous. He’s not going to do that in three seasons. Or four. Five is quite unlikely. Six, slightly possible if he is extremely healthy and effective. Seven, getting warmer but still questionable. How about 266 homers over eight seasons? He’d have to average 33.25. But honestly, to hit an additional 266 home runs, Bonds would have to play nine or ten more seasons. Maybe even eleven. Just saying is all. If Bonds is hitting 30+ HRs into his early fifties…I want some of what he’s taking.