MLBTR Poll: Braves’ Fifth Starter
The Braves made a surprising decision this week, optioning both Bryce Elder and Ian Anderson to Triple-A Gwinnett. That takes the duo out of consideration for the fifth spot in the rotation. Atlanta’s top four of Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton is settled, but the final slot now looks as if it’ll go to someone previously expected to open the year in the minors.
With injuries to Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard keeping them out of the season-opening mix, Elder and Anderson had seemed the favorites for the last rotation spot. Instead, it now seems the Braves will turn to a pitcher with no MLB experience out of the gate. Prospects Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd look as if they’re battling for the final spot.
Jared Shuster
The 24-year-old Shuster was Atlanta’s first-round pick out of Wake Forest in 2020. He split the 2022 campaign between Double-A Mississippi and Gwinnett, working to a 3.29 ERA in 139 1/3 innings. He punched out 26.2% of batters faced compared to a modest 6.9% walk rate overall. Shuster’s strikeout numbers dropped precipitously after a midseason jump to Triple-A, however. He’d fanned 30% of opponents in 17 appearances with Mississippi but that mark fell to 19.4% over 10 outings for the Stripers.
Baseball America considers Shuster the #3 prospect in the Atlanta farm system. The outlet credits him with a plus changeup and above-average control. He’s not a particularly hard thrower and scouts peg his slider as a fringe-average pitch. Shuster has thrown 10 2/3 innings this spring, allowing only one run with 16 strikeouts and two walks.
Dylan Dodd
Dodd, also 24, was Atlanta’s third-round pick in 2021. An underslot senior signee coming out of Southeast Missouri State, Dodd moved across three minor league levels in his first full professional season. He started 16 games with High-A Rome and nine for Mississippi before closing out the ’22 campaign with one appearance in Gwinnett. The left-hander soaked up 142 innings over the three levels, posting a 3.36 ERA with a 26% strikeout percentage while only walking 5.3% of opponents.
Ranked the #6 prospect in the organization by Baseball America, Dodd has a similar pitchability profile as Shuster. His fastball also sits in the low-90s and he leans heavily on a pair of advanced breaking pitches in his changeup and slider. He’s an excellent strike-thrower who’s generally regarded as a solid bet to be a back-of-the-rotation starter. Dodd has tossed 8 1/3 scoreless innings in exhibition play, punching out 11 without handing out any free passes.
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The book on Shuster and Dodd is fairly similar. They’re both advanced left-handers with strong secondary stuff and control to drive the profile despite middling velocity. They’re each recent college draftees without a ton of professional experience but already in their mid-20s. Both pitchers are having excellent showings in Grapefruit League play, apparently vaulting themselves past Elder and Anderson on the immediate depth chart. Neither is yet on the 40-man roster but Atlanta has a vacancy after losing Dennis Santana on waivers last month and could clear more room by placing Tyler Matzek and Huascar Ynoa on the 60-day injured list.
It stands to reason both Shuster and Dodd will make their MLB debuts at some point this year. One of the duo now figures to break camp with the big league club and assume a key role from the season’s outset. Who will get the nod?
(poll link for app users)
Who Will Be Braves' Fifth Starter To Open The Season?
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Jared Shuster 68% (3,049)
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Dylan Dodd 23% (1,019)
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Other (specify in comments) 9% (384)
Total votes: 4,452
Braves Option Ian Anderson, Bryce Elder
The Braves announced today that right-handers Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder have been optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett. The club now has 50 players in camp.
The club is going into the season with four of its five rotation spots spoken for, with Max Fried, Spencer Strider, Kyle Wright and Charlie Morton firmly cemented. The only question was who would get the fifth spot. Anderson and Elder seemed like the frontrunners for such a job since they have some major league experience and are currently holding down spots on the 40-man roster. With players like Michael Soroka and Kolby Allard dealing with injuries, that seemed to only work in their favor. However, it seems that strong spring performances from Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd may have changed the calculus.
Anderson, 25 in May, seemed like a key member of the rotation at this time a year ago. Over 2020 and 2021, he tossed 160 2/3 innings with a 3.25 ERA, 24.5% strikeout rate, 10% walk rate and 49.9% ground ball rate. Based on the fact that he was the third overall pick in 2016 and a highly-touted prospect, there was every reason to suspect he would just continue on that kind of trajectory for years to come. Unfortunately, he took a big step back last season, posting an ERA of 5.00 with all of his rate stats going in the wrong direction. He got sent down to the minors and was later recalled but finished the year on the injured list. Though his stock was down after that rough season, many still expected the club to give him another shot here in 2023. The results haven’t been especially strong here in spring so far, as he’s registered a 6.14 ERA in 7 1/3 innings.
In the case of Elder, 24 in May, he has less major league experience, just 54 innings last year. But he posted a solid 3.17 ERA in that time, continuing his groundball-heavy approach from the minors. 49.3% of balls in play allowed in the majors were on the ground, and he had slightly better rates on the farm. But like Anderson, he’s had a rough spring, posting a 6.17 ERA in 11 2/3 innings.
Shuster, 24, was the club’s first round pick in the 2020 draft and has been pushing his way up the minor league ladder since then. He tossed 90 2/3 innings in Double-A last year with a 2.78 ERA, but that jumped to a 4.25 ERA in 48 2/3 innings at Triple-A. He also saw his strikeout rate drop from 30% at Double-A to 19.4% at Triple-A. Coming into 2023, he was still considered one of the club’s top prospects, though it didn’t seem as though he was kicking the door down. But in 8 2/3 spring innings so far, he has a tiny ERA of 1.04, striking out nine batters while issuing just a single walk and allowing just a pair of hits.
Dodd, 25 in June, was selected in the third round of the 2021 draft and jumped three levels last year. Going from Class-A Advanced to Double-A and Triple-A, he tossed 142 innings on the year with a 3.36 ERA. He struck out 26% of batters faced and walked just 5.3%. He’s also had a strong showing here in camp, tossing 8 1/3 innings without allowing an earned run, striking out 11 against no walks and five hits.
Clubs will occasionally start a season with a four-man rotation, as the early parts of the schedule will sometimes have extra off-days that negate the need for a fifth. That doesn’t seem to be the case for Atlanta, as they have just two days off in the month of April, playing in 12 straight days to start the month and then a 17-day stretch without a day off that covers the end of the month and the start of May. They will certainly need someone to take the ball alongside their front four in that time.
Neither Shuster nor Dodd are currently on the 40-man roster. If one of them is eventually called upon to join the Opening Day rotation, the club will need to make a move to get them a spot. That should be fairly easy, however, as both Huascar Ynoa and Tyler Matzek are expected to miss most or all of this season after undergoing Tommy John surgery late last year. They will be moved to the 60-day injured list at some point and won’t count against the club’s roster number. There’s still a couple of weeks until the opener and the club could always change its plans, but it seems that signs are pointing to a surprise ending to the club’s rotation battle.