Braves To Place Spencer Strider On Injured List
Braves righty Spencer Strider is going to start the season on the injured list due to an oblique strain, manager Walt Weiss announced to the team’s beat this morning (via Mark Bowman of MLB.com). The team hasn’t provided a formal timeline, but even Grade 1 oblique strains can sideline players for around a month.
Strider, 27, last pitched a full season in 2023. He made only two starts in 2024 before requiring UCL surgery that would sideline him into the 2025 campaign. The rehab from that surgery, combined with a hamstring strain, limited Strider to 23 starts last year. He pitched 125 1/3 innings but worked with diminished velocity and overall stuff, leading to a 4.45 ERA and rate stats that were markedly worse than their pre-injury levels.
The hope had been for a healthier Strider to bounce back closer to his brilliant 2022-23 form. Instead, he’ll be the latest addition to a list of key players who are unavailable to begin the year. It’s been a nightmare spring for Atlanta. The Braves have lost righties Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep for months following surgeries to remove loose bodies from their elbows. Left-hander Joey Wentz tore his ACL and is out for the season. Shortstop Ha-Seong Kim suffered a hand injury in a fall before even reporting to camp and will be out for more than a month to begin the year. Left fielder/designated hitter Jurickson Profar was suspended for the entire season following a second positive PED test.
Atlanta’s lack of pitching depth has been a story throughout camp. With Strider headed to the injured list, the Braves will open the season with Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez and Grant Holmes as their top three starters. Lopez pitched only once last year due to shoulder surgery. Holmes suffered a UCL tear last summer and rehabbed it without surgery.
Plans beyond that top trio are murky for the time being. Right-hander Bryce Elder and left-hander José Suarez are out of minor league options and will presumably both make the roster, though either could be bound for the bullpen. Bowman calls Suarez a “likely” starter to begin the season and adds that the club could consider selecting the contract of non-roster veteran Martín Pérez, who’d previously been informed he was not making the club. Right-hander Didier Fuentes is still ticketed for the bullpen, Weiss tells Bowman.
It’s a paper-thin rotation group at this point, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos make some form of addition to further stockpile some depth. There ought to be several veterans opting out of/being released from minor league deals in the final days of camp, and arms of varying quality will be designated for assignment due to the annual Opening Day roster crunch.
Poll: Who Will Be The Braves’ Fifth Starter?
The Atlanta rotation has had a rough go of it this spring. Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep both hit the injured list before Spring Training games even began, and now they’ve been followed by the loss of lefty Joey Wentz to a season-ending ACL tear. The timelines for Waldrep and Schwellenbach aren’t yet clear, but they figure to miss significant time following surgeries to remove loose bodies from their elbows. (Schwellenbach is already on the 60-day IL.) That leaves the Braves with a lot of uncertainty in the rotation. Grant Holmes and Reynaldo Lopez are coming off injury-marred 2025 seasons, but they’ll be relied on for mid-rotation innings behind Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.
There’s still one rotation spot open. Wentz was in position to make a play for that spot and had a decent spring showing: two runs, three hits, four walks, one hit batter, six punchouts in 5 2/3 innings (3.18 ERA). His injury opens the competition up to a larger group.
The on-paper favorite is likely to be right-hander Bryce Elder, who made 28 starts for the Braves last year. Elder is still just 27 years old and was an All-Star back in 2023 thanks to a big first half, but in his past 52 starts he’s posted a 5.63 ERA with a below-average 18.4% strikeout rate against an 8.3% walk rate. Metrics like SIERA (4.56) and FIP (4.76) have been a bit better kinder, but Elder is approaching 300 innings with an ERA north of 5.50 over the past two and a half calendar years.
Elder’s status as the presumptive favorite is more about incumbency, being on the 40-man roster and being out of minor league options. He hasn’t made a strong case this spring, turning in a lackluster 6.48 ERA in three starts. That leaves the door wide open for someone else to grab the job.
Left-hander José Suarez is also out of minor league options and on the 40-man roster. He has an uneven big league track record but pitched well between 61 2/3 minor league innings and 19 1/3 major league frames for Atlanta last winter. He’s allowed four runs in 6 2/3 spring innings. Suarez gave the Angels 207 1/3 innings of 3.86 ERA ball in 2021-22 before being tagged for a 6.91 ERA in 86 innings across a pair of injury-marred seasons in 2023-24.
The most prominent non-roster veteran in camp is southpaw Martín Pérez. The lefty has allowed only one run in five spring innings and is coming off a season where he posted decent numbers (3.54 ERA, 4.24 FIP) in 56 innings for the White Sox. Flexor and shoulder injuries shortened his 2025 season, and the days of Pérez’s blip of All-Star-caliber work with the Rangers (2.89 ERA, 3.9 fWAR in 2022) are likely behind him. Still, he has the potential to be an effective back-end starter.
Those aren’t the only options for the role. Veteran Carlos Carrasco is in camp, but after posting a 9.88 ERA in three starts for Atlanta last season and allowing nine runs on 11 hits in 6 1/3 spring innings this year, he seems unlikely to be the top choice. Didier Fuentes made his MLB debut last year and has tossed four scoreless innings this spring, but he won’t celebrate his 21st birthday until June and might be better served with more time in the minors. Top pitching prospect JR Ritchie enjoyed a strong season at Triple-A last year and has looked good so far this spring (3.38 ERA in eight innings). He’s not yet on the 40-man roster.
Another possibility that can’t be entirely ruled out is an external addition. Lucas Giolito remains available and seems like an obvious fit — despite an apparent lack of interest on Atlanta’s part thus far. Other veterans like Tyler Anderson and Patrick Corbin remain unsigned, too. Any of those pitchers could be added to the mix with the intent of them eventually taking over the fifth starter job, but the team would likely need to trade for a player that’s already been pitching for another club in order to add someone who will immediately be ready to join the rotation at the start of the season. A free agent like Giolito would surely need to get work in at extended Spring Training at this point.
How do MLBTR readers think the Braves will round out their rotation? Will they give the job to Elder and hope for better results than last year? Will they go with a young prospect like Fuentes or Ritchie, or perhaps a veteran like Pérez or Carrasco? Perhaps they’ll eschew all those options for an external addition? Vote now in the poll below:
Who will be the Braves' fifth starter this year?
Braves Activate Spencer Strider
May 19: The Braves announced this morning that Strider has been reinstated. Dodd was optioned to Triple-A Gwinnett in a corresponding move.
May 18: The Braves optioned right-hander Bryce Elder to the minor leagues to call up southpaw Dylan Dodd earlier this weekend. The 2023 All-Star had a middling 4.50 ERA and 4.92 FIP in eight starts in the majors to this point in the season, so the club’s decision to send Elder to Triple-A is hardly a shock. That said, it’s still notable given that it opens up a spot in the rotation behind Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach, AJ Smith-Shawver, and Grant Holmes.
At first glance, Dodd seems like the obvious candidate to take that role considering that the lefty has started seven of his eight MLB appearances so far in his career. Dodd has moved to the bullpen full time at Triple-A this year, however, and Mark Bowman of MLB.com reported today that right-hander Spencer Strider is actually the one who will take Elder’s spot in the rotation after he’s activated from the injured list on May 20.
The 26-year-old missed nearly all of last season after undergoing internal brace surgery on his UCL early last year. The righty made it back to the big league mound just over a month ago and struck out five across five innings of one-run ball, but suffered a hamstring injury shortly thereafter while playing catch in preparation for his second start of the season. Rather than take any chances with Strider pitching on a balky hamstring, Atlanta placed him back on the injured list, where he’s remained for the past month.
Now, it appears Strider is finally poised to take his second start of the 2025 season. It was reported last week that Strider was scheduled to throw a 70-to-75 pitch simulated game in preparation for his return to action, at which point the club would decide whether to send him on a short rehab assignment or activate him directly off of the injured list. It seems they’ve opted to go with the latter option in order to get Strider back to the majors as quickly as possible. A disastrous 0-7 start to the season has become little more than a bad memory, as the 24-23 Braves are just four games back of a playoff spot and five games back of the Mets in the NL East.
That’s hardly an insurmountable deficit, particularly for a club that’s hoping to get a healthy, vintage performance from Strider the rest of the way. The hard-throwing righty was among the best pitchers in baseball in his first two MLB seasons as he posted a 3.36 ERA with a 2.43 FIP and a 37.4% strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023. If he can offer anything close to that sort of a production for a rotation that already features the reigning NL Triple Crown winner in Sale and a pair of electric young arms in Schwellenbach and Smith-Shawver, Atlanta should be a force to be reckoned with moving forward this year before even considering the fact that Ronald Acuna Jr.‘s own return may be just around the corner or that All-Stars Ozzie Albies and Michael Harris II have yet to produce offensively this year.
Braves Place Reynaldo López On IL Due To Shoulder Inflammation
The Braves announced that right-hander Reynaldo López was placed on the 15-day injured list, retroactive to March 29, due to right shoulder inflammation. Fellow righty Bryce Elder has been recalled as the corresponding move. Per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Elder will take Wednesday’s start in place of López.
There hasn’t yet been any word from the team on exactly how serious they expect this to be, but it’s concerning on a few fronts. First of all, López also spent time on the IL last year due to inflammation in his throwing shoulder. Atlanta signed López ahead of 2024 and moved him back to the rotation after many years working in relief. On a rate basis, the results couldn’t have gone much better, as he had a 1.99 earned run average on the year.
But he went on the IL a couple of times, once due to a forearm issue and then a second time due to shoulder inflammation. His tally of 135 2/3 innings was his largest in years but still shy of a full starter’s workload. Now after just one start in the 2025 season, he’s back on the IL with more shoulder trouble.
There was an argument for Atlanta adding to their rotation this winter but they opted not to, perhaps due to financial constraints. Regardless of the reasoning, they opened the season with a strong front three of Chris Sale, Spencer Schwellenbach and López. Spencer Strider would eventually rejoin them but was slated for a season-opening IL stint as he’s still recovering from last year’s UCL surgery.
Two spots were available behind the Sale/López/Schwellenbach trio. Grant Holmes and Ian Anderson seemed like the top candidates for those jobs but AJ Smith-Shawver surged by Anderson during the spring, with Anderson flipped to the Angels last week. With López now out of the picture, they are down to Sale and Schwellenbach at the front, with Smith-Shawver, Holmes and Elder filling in behind them.
Perhaps it won’t be a long-term issue. Strider has been building up on a rehab assignment and could be back in the majors shortly. It’s also possible that this injury is fairly minor for López and he’ll be back soon as well.
Regardless, it’s another gut punch for the Atlanta fans, who are already having about the worst opening week possible. The club got swept by the Padres and are currently in the basement of the NL East with a record of 0-4. As if that weren’t enough, it was revealed today that top offseason acquisition Jurickson Profar has received an 80-game PED suspension. That will put him out of commission for a while and make him ineligible to appear in this year’s playoffs, if Atlanta qualifies.
Elder comes up to take López’s rotation spot for the time being, though he may only take the ball once or twice before Strider is activated. Elder turned in a 3.81 ERA over 31 starts a couple seasons ago. His production nosedived last year, as he allowed 6.52 earned runs per nine over 49 2/3 innings. Elder gets a lot of ground-balls, but he doesn’t have overpowering stuff and gave up a lot of hard contact last season. The Texas product was rocked in his only start with Triple-A Gwinnett this year. He gave up five runs on three hits and uncharacteristic four walks across 2 2/3 innings.
Chris Sale Not On Braves’ Wild Card Roster
The Braves announced their roster for the Wild Card series today and it does not include left-hander Chris Sale. The club is going with an even split of 13 pitchers and position players, the latter group including two catchers, five infielders and six outfielders.
Sale had an excellent bounceback season in 2024 and could be awarded a Cy Young trophy in a few weeks, but the campaign ended on a frustrating note. He hasn’t taken the mound since September 19 against the Reds. In that outing, Sale’s velocity was down and he hasn’t pitched since. Up until yesterday, it seemed as though the club was just holding Sale to see if they would need him for a do-or-die game, otherwise hoping to hold him back for the first game of the Wild Card round.
Going into yesterday’s double-header, which was necessitated after two midweek games between the Mets and Atlanta were delayed by Hurricane Helene, both clubs needed a victory to secure a playoff spot. Spencer Schwellenbach started Game 1, which the Mets went on to win 8-7. It was expected that Sale would take the ball for the second contest but the club then announced that Sale had been scratched with back spasms. The issue had flared up during that start against the Reds and he kept hoping to be able to return to the mound but it didn’t improve and then worsened on Sunday night, per Mark Bowman of MLB.com (X links).
Based on Sale being left off the Wild Card roster, it can be assumed that the club doesn’t expect him to be game ready in the next few days. As mentioned, he is having a great season and undoubtedly would have been a part of their plans if he were healthy. He made 29 starts this year with a 2.38 earned run average, 32.1% strikeout rate, 5.6% walk rate and 44.8% ground ball rate.
Without Sale, the club will have to get creative to survive against the Padres. Due to the aforementioned double-header situation, they used a lot of arms yesterday. Schwellenbach started the first game and Grant Holmes the second. Neither of those pitchers are on the roster either, which makes sense since they probably wouldn’t be available for a few days anyway.
Max Fried and Reynaldo López will likely start game two and three respectively, as they would be on normal rest for those contests following their last regular season outings. Charlie Morton started on Sunday and might not be available early in the series, though he is on the roster.
For today, the club may be looking to get some innings out of Bryce Elder or AJ Smith-Shawver. Neither has been a huge part of the club’s performance of late but they may need to step up while the bullpen is taxed and the club can’t turn to Sale, Schwellenbach or Holmes. Elder posted a 6.52 ERA in the big leagues this year while frequently being optioned to the minors. He had a solid 3.73 ERA in Triple-A this year but hasn’t pitched for the big league club since August 6.
Smith-Shawver only pitched once in the majors this year, a spot start of 4 1/3 innings in May. He has a 4.85 ERA in Triple-A on the year, though he finished somewhat strong with a 3.68 ERA over his last seven starts.
In addition to Elder and Smith-Shawver, Atlanta’s playoff roster consists of Fried, Lopez, Morton, Aaron Bummer, Jesse Chavez, Daysbel Hernández, Raisel Iglesias, Luke Jackson, Joe Jiménez, Pierce Johnson and Dylan Lee. On the position player side, they have catchers Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud, infielders Ozzie Albies, Orlando Arcia, Whit Merrifield, Matt Olson and Gio Urshela, as well as outfielders Michael Harris II, Jarred Kelenic, Ramón Laureano, Marcell Ozuna, Jorge Soler and Eli White.
Braves Place Reynaldo López On Injured List
The Braves announced that they have recalled right-hander Bryce Elder, who will start tomorrow’s game, per Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution on X. To open a spot for Elder, righty Reynaldo López was placed on the 15-day injured list with right forearm inflammation, retroactive to August 2.
López last took the mound on July 28 but left after three innings and the club later announced he was dealing with right forearm tightness. He was sent for an MRI that thankfully revealed no structural damage and the club was initially hoping the righty could avoid the IL. However, he still hasn’t thrown a bullpen since that start, per David O’Brien of The Athletic on X. It seems the soreness and/or inflammation aren’t receding as quickly as hoped and so the club put him on the shelf. Though he hasn’t pitched in almost a week now, IL stints can only be backdated a maximum of three days.
While it’s good that López isn’t facing some kind of season-ending surgery, it is still a notable challenge for the rotation. After working as a reliever in recent years, López moved into a starting role with Atlanta and was having great success with a 2.06 earned run average through 19 starts. His 86.1% strand rate has undoubtedly played a role in lowering his ERA but even his 3.18 FIP and his 4.05 SIERA suggest he’s been a serviceable starter this year.
The club still has Chris Sale, Charlie Morton, Max Fried and Spencer Schwellenbach but subbing in Elder or one of the club’s other depth starters for López is going to be a downgrade. Subtracting a pitcher with a 2.06 ERA would be less than ideal for any club but Elder has a 5.67 ERA on the year. That’s only nine starts and there’s a bit of bad luck in there from his .352 batting average on balls in play and 66.6% strand rate, but even his 4.23 FIP and 4.18 SIERA are a downgrade from López.
Even if one considers the drop from López to Elder manageable, it thins out the overall depth. AJ Smith-Shawver is having a poor year with a 5.40 ERA in Triple-A while Hurston Waldrep has been hurt and just allowed four earned runs over 2 2/3 innings in his most recent Triple-A start after coming off the IL. Ian Anderson is coming back from Tommy John surgery but has a 6.23 through three Triple-A starts so far.
Atlanta came into the season as the division favorites and started the season strong but they have fallen back this summer. They were 19-9 at the end of April but have gone 41-42 since then, leaving them at 60-51. That’s still good enough for the top Wild Card spot in the National League but there are three teams within two games and then another five clubs within seven games, making the grip on a playoff berth fairly tenuous at the moment.
Ideally, López will see be able to recover fairly quickly and make this a temporary issue, but the rotation will feel on the flimsy side until then. Sale is having a great year but missed most of the past four years due to injury and is now 35 years old, while Morton is well past his 40th birthday. Schwellenbach has been doing very well but still has just 11 major league starts under his belt. Fried just returned from an IL stint due to forearm neuritis but his first start back resulted in five walks and five earned runs allowed in 3 1/3 innings despite facing a hollowed-out Marlins lineup. The fans in the Atlanta area will undoubtedly be hoping for López to make a speedy recovery and return some time in the middle of the month.
Braves Select Eddie Rosario
Eddie Rosario is back with the Braves, as Atlanta selected the veteran outfielder onto the MLB roster. The Braves also recalled right-hander Bryce Elder from Triple-A Gwinnett to start tonight’s contest with the D-Backs. Reliever Dylan Lee and utilityman Luke Williams were optioned out in corresponding moves. The Braves designated outfielder J.P. Martínez for assignment to create a 40-man roster spot for Rosario — a move that was reported this morning.
It’ll be Rosario’s fourth straight season logging MLB action as a Brave. Atlanta’s decision to buy low on the veteran outfielder at the 2021 trade deadline is etched into franchise history. The generally streaky Rosario caught fire down the stretch and into October, winning NLCS MVP honors and helping the Braves to a World Series. Atlanta re-signed him to a two-year, $18MM free agent deal that offseason.
The extension didn’t work out as hoped. He battled vision issues and slumped to a .212/.259/.328 batting line during the first season. Rosario bounced back somewhat to hit 21 home runs a year ago, though his .255/.305/.450 slash was average overall. Atlanta declined a $9MM option for the 2024 campaign, sending the 32-year-old back to the open market. Rosario lingered in free agency until Spring Training was underway. He eventually signed a minor league deal with the Nationals and locked in a $2MM salary when he made the team out of camp.
Rosario’s time in Washington was a disappointment. He got out to a dreadful first month, hitting .088 with just one homer through the end of April. The lefty-swinging outfielder connected on six longballs and five doubles in an impressive May before falling back into an extended slump. He hit .191/.200/.250 in June. The Nats pulled the plug last week, calling up top prospect James Wood and releasing Rosario after it became clear he wouldn’t play his way into being a valuable trade chip. Rosario finished his Washington tenure with a .183/.226/.329 slash across 235 plate appearances. He’s a .227/.275/.390 hitter over the past two and a half seasons.
That set the stage for another shot in Atlanta. The Braves inked Rosario to a minor league deal on Friday. After a trio of appearances for Gwinnett, he’s back in the MLB outfield. He could step into a left field platoon with the righty-swinging Ramón Laureano, who signed a minor league deal with Atlanta in May after being released by the Guardians. Laureano has been nursing a back issue for over a week, so Eli White (whose contract was just selected on Friday) started in left field for all three games of Atlanta’s weekend series with the Phillies.
Jarred Kelenic is playing every day in center field while Michael Harris II mends a hamstring strain. Adam Duvall is handling right field. The outfield is a clear weak point for the Braves since they lost Ronald Acuña Jr. to a season-ending ACL tear. It’s entirely unsurprising that they’re evaluating trade possibilities before the July 30 deadline. Rosario’s return stint with the Braves could be brief if president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos and his staff can land a more significant upgrade over the next few weeks.
For the time being, the Braves will take a low-cost roll of the dice on Rosario hitting a hot streak in a familiar setting. Atlanta will only pay him the prorated portion of the $740K league minimum for however long he’s on the roster. The Nats remain on the hook for the rest of his salary.
Braves Option Bryce Elder; Reynaldo Lopez To Open Season As Fifth Starter
The Braves announced Monday morning that they’ve optioned right-handers Bryce Elder and Huascar Ynoa to Triple-A Gwinnett. That follows last week’s option of righty AJ Smith-Shawver and closes the book on Atlanta’s fifth-starter competition. Offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez will open the season as the team’s fifth starter behind Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale, tweets Justin Toscano of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution.
While it’s looked quite likely for some time now that Lopez would get the spot, it’s nonetheless a scenario that would’ve sounded outlandish after the conclusion of the 2023 season. Elder faded down then stretch in the final couple months of the ’23 campaign but was an All-Star last July. Smith-Shawver rose from High-A to the big leagues in a matter of months last season. Lopez, meanwhile, moved to the bullpen early in the 2021 season with the White Sox and has worked as a reliever for the bulk of the past three seasons.
However, even at the time the Braves signed Lopez to a three-year, $30MM contract, they made clear that the plan was going to be to stretch the right-hander out as a rotation option. Atlanta scouts and evaluators are clearly bullish on the right-hander’s power arsenal and feel it can indeed still hold up in a starting capacity. Lopez started 73 games for the ChiSox from 2018-20, so he’s no stranger to the role, but the vast majority of his MLB success has come since moving to short relief stints.
Thus far in camp, he’s at least looked the part of a viable rotation piece. Spring stats should always be taken with a grain of salt, but through 16 2/3 frames Lopez hasn’t done much to hurt his chances. He’s posted a sharp 2.16 ERA with a 21% strikeout rate, 9.7% walk rate and 45.2% grounder rate. Elder has been tagged for 11 runs on 15 hits and six walk with 13 strikeouts through just 12 innings. Ynoa, who’s still making his way back from 2022 Tommy John surgery, was slowed early in camp by some shoulder soreness and only made his spring debut on Saturday, tossing one inning. Were it not for the shoulder issue, perhaps he’d have been more firmly in the mix this spring, but he didn’t have the chance to build up and will open the season as a depth option in Gwinnett.
Once Smith-Shawver was optioned a week ago, the competition was largely down to Elder and Lopez. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but after a brilliant start to his 2023 season, Elder limped to a dismal 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 72 innings of the year (14 starts).
Lopez, over the past three seasons, has pitched to a 3.14 ERA with a 26.7% strikeout rate, 7.7% walk rate and 39% ground-ball rate through 189 innings, most of which has come in a relief setting. He pushed his average fastball velocity up to a career-high 98.4 mph in that role last season, though he’ll likely see that number dip a bit over longer stints as a starter.
Lopez posted a 3.91 ERA in 32 starts for the ’18 White Sox but did so with shaky strikeout, walk and ground-ball rates that prompted metrics like FIP (4.63) and SIERA (4.92) to cast a much less favorable light on his work. The secondary numbers indeed served as a portent for regression; from 2019-20, Lopez was torched for a 5.52 ERA in 210 2/3 innings, thanks largely to pedestrian K-BB numbers and a sky-high 1.88 HR/9 mark.
If Lopez is able to break out as a starter, the three-year, $30MM contract he signed could well look like a bargain. If not, he’s proven over the past few seasons that he can be an impact late-inning reliever, so he could always be shifted back into a one-inning role and deepen an already excellent Atlanta bullpen that features Raisel Iglesias, Joe Jimenez, A.J. Minter, Pierce Johnson, Tyler Matzek, Dylan Lee and Lopez’s former White Sox teammate Aaron Bummer.
Braves Option AJ Smith-Shawver
The Braves announced this morning that they’ve optioned right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver to Triple-A Gwinnett, thus ending his bid for a spot in the team’s Opening Day rotation. He’ll begin the season in the upper minors and serve as one of the team’s first lines of defense should an injury occur on the starting staff.
It’s not an entirely unexpected move. The top spots in the Atlanta rotation are set in stone, with Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Chris Sale all assured roles heading into camp. That left the fifth spot to a likely battle between Smith-Shawver, Bryce Elder and offseason signee Reynaldo Lopez, whom the Braves plan to stretch back out as a starter after spending the last couple seasons in a bullpen role.
Lopez’s contract made him a favorite to begin with, but the fact that he’s yielded just one run and three hits with a 7-to-2 K/BB ratio and 53% grounder rate in eight spring innings surely hasn’t harmed his chances. Smith-Shawver, by comparison, has been tagged for seven runs on a dozen hits and three walks with 11 strikeouts in 7 2/3 spring frames. Elder, a 2023 All-Star, has had similar struggles to Smith-Shawver in his small sample of spring innings. In 7 2/3 frames, he’s been charged with six runs on the strength of 10 hits and three walks with 10 strikeouts. It might seem surprising to push an All-Star out of the rotation in favor of a converted reliever, but Elder did wilt in alarming fashion down the stretch in ’23, posting a 5.75 ERA with just a 15.1% strikeout rate against a 10.4% walk rate over his final 14 starts/72 innings.
The composition of the Opening Day rotation is in some ways immaterial — particularly for a Braves club that’ll enter the year as an overwhelming postseason favorite. In all likelihood, each of Lopez, Smith-Shawver and Elder will start games for the Braves this season. Injuries limited Fried to just 77 2/3 innings last year, while Sale has pitched only 151 innings over the past four seasons combined. Morton has been a workhorse, ranking sixth in the majors in games started and 11th in innings pitched dating back to 2018 — but he’s also entering his age-40 season. Injuries are an inevitability among big league pitchers, so the Braves will likely have to tap into their impressive collection of depth arms — headlined by Elder and Smith-Shawver — at various points in 2024.
While the Smith-Shawver demotion clearly isn’t a means of manipulating his service time, it’s still worth noting that the decision could have implications in that regard. The 21-year-old made his MLB debut in 2023 and started five games (plus one relief appearance), pitching to a 4.26 ERA with a 20-to-11 K/BB ratio in 25 1/3 innings. He picked up 50 days of service last season, meaning he’d reach a full year of MLB service with another 122 days on this year’s roster (roughly two-thirds of the season). If he reaches that full year of service, Smith-Shawver would be controllable through the 2029 season. If he spends fewer than 122 days on the roster, he’ll be controllable through the 2030 season.
Smith-Shawver soared from High-A to the majors in 2023, pitching to a combined 2.76 ERA across three minor league levels before making that MLB debut. Baseball America ranks him as the game’s No. 42 prospect. He’s ranked 63rd at FanGraphs and 69th at MLB.com.
The Braves’ Fifth Starter Possibilities
There’s no question about the top four in the Braves rotation. Atlanta acquired Chris Sale over the weekend to join Spencer Strider, Max Fried and Charlie Morton in a high-upside staff, then promptly extended Sale. The Braves don’t have a set choice for the #5 spot to open the year. It seems that’ll be up for grabs in camp.
On an appearance on The Bill Shanks Show on Tuesday, Atlanta president of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos suggested the front office was willing to consider a number of options for the last rotation job. “It’ll be open competition for the fifth spot,” he told Shanks. The front office leader name-checked five candidates for the position (albeit without saying it was an exhaustive list): Bryce Elder, Reynaldo López, AJ Smith-Shawver, Huascar Ynoa and Hurston Waldrep.
Atlanta had a camp battle for the final two spots last spring. They surprisingly tabbed Jared Shuster and Dylan Dodd, neither of whom had made their MLB debuts, for season-opening roles after impressive Spring Training performances. While neither rookie fared all that well, the Braves are open to again turning to a young arm if they outperform others in the spring.
“We’re going to take the best players,” Anthopoulos said. “We never assume the division. You can lose it or win it by a game, as we saw in 2022 (when) it came down the wire. … We’re going to break with the best team. Like anything, we’ll try to maintain our depth. If there’s a lot of ties or it’s close, we’ll keep our depth. But we’re hopeful these guys are all good in Spring Training and make it hard on us.”
Perhaps an opportunity will arise for the Braves to add a surefire #5 starter within the next couple months. That doesn’t appear to be an organizational priority, however. There seems a good chance Atlanta is content with a camp battle between the group that Anthopoulos referenced. They’ll likely all play roles at some point as injuries necessitate, but we’ll run through the top candidates for the Opening Day job as things currently stand.
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Elder surprisingly emerged as a rotation mainstay for Atlanta a year ago. Despite briefly starting the season with Triple-A Gwinnett, he wound up taking the ball 31 times and tossing 174 2/3 innings — second on the team behind Strider. Elder had a great first half, pitching to a 2.97 ERA en route to an All-Star selection. He didn’t find that same level of success down the stretch, as he surrendered a 5.11 mark in the second half. The Phillies tagged him for six runs in 2 2/3 frames during his only postseason start.
At year’s end, Elder still carried a solid 3.81 ERA. Despite the rough finish, he was a valuable part of Brian Snitker’s pitching staff. It’s nevertheless questionable whether he can replicate a sub-4.00 ERA without missing many bats. Elder had a below-average 17.5% strikeout rate and 9.9% swinging strike percentage a season ago. He’s a ground-ball specialist whose sinker was below the 90 MPH mark on average. It’s a very different profile from the high-octane strikeout stuff of the top four in the rotation (and that of some of his competitors for the #5 job). Anthopoulos pointed out that Elder still has a full slate of minor league options and could start the year in Gwinnett if he doesn’t break camp with the MLB team, as Ian Anderson did in 2023.
López, on the other hand, is certainly going to be on the major league roster. The question is whether that’s in the rotation or the bullpen. Atlanta signed the 30-year-old righty to a three-year, $30MM free agent deal at the start of the offseason. While the price tag wasn’t a surprise, the Braves’ subsequent announcement they might stretch López out as a starter was unexpected.
Teams have used López almost exclusively in relief for the past two and a half seasons. He hasn’t had a full year as a starter since 2019, when he was tagged for a 5.38 ERA in 184 innings for the White Sox. López has shown the durability to hold up from the rotation, topping 180 frames in consecutive seasons for Chicago in 2018-19. The former top prospect has been much more effective when working in shorter stints, though. He owns a 3.02 ERA with a 27.4% strikeout percentage in 131 1/3 innings between a trio of clubs since the start of 2022.
Smith-Shawver, who turned 21 in November, was among the youngest players to reach the majors last season. He got to the big leagues within two years of being drafted out of high school. Smith-Shawver didn’t hold a long-term rotation role, appearing in six games (five starts). He posted a 4.26 ERA through 25 1/3 innings despite middling strikeout and walk rates and seven home runs.
The 6’3″ hurler had a more impressive statistical track record in the minors. He combined for 62 frames between the top three minor league levels, allowing a 2.76 ERA while striking out 31.3% of opponents. Smith-Shawver walked over 13% of batters faced in the minors, so he’s clearly not a finished product. That’s to be expected given his youth. The Braves were impressed enough with the huge swing-and-miss potential he’d shown to carry him in relief on their playoff roster last October. He has two options remaining.
Ynoa, still just 25, pitched at the MLB level from 2019-22. He turned in mid-rotation results (4.05 ERA, 26.9% strikeout rate and 6.7% walk percentage) in 2021, although he was limited to 91 innings thanks to a self-inflicted hand fracture when he punched a dugout wall. He dropped into a depth role by the ’22 season, allowing a 5.68 ERA over 18 Triple-A appearances. He underwent Tommy John surgery that September and missed all of last year. He is expected to be a full participant in Spring Training. The Braves tendered him an arbitration contract but could send him to the minors for another season, as he has one option remaining.
The only player in this quintet who has yet to reach the majors, Waldrep is on a fast track to MLB. Atlanta’s first-round pick a year ago, the hard-throwing righty went from the College World Series in June to Triple-A by September. The Florida product had a brilliant 1.53 ERA while fanning a third of batters faced in his first eight professional starts at four levels (including one appearance in Gwinnett).
Atlanta is among the most aggressive teams in promoting its top prospects. As a college draftee, Waldrep is around nine months older than Smith-Shawver is. He has far less professional experience and isn’t on the 40-man roster, but he was drafted out of a strong program in college baseball’s top conference. Anthopoulos conceded it’d be ideal for both Waldrep and Smith-Shawver to have more developmental time but rhetorically asked, “if they come in and they are so much better than anybody else, how we do deny them?“