Nationals’ Surpluses Could Lead To Trades
Nationals GM Jim Bowden signed veterans Dmitri Young and Ron Belliard to curious two-year extensions last year. He’s now faced with a logjam at two infield positions.
Ben Goessling of the Washington Times describes the first base battle between Young and Nick Johnson, who get along well. Johnson has more trade value, given his age. Neither player is a lock for 150 games though. Johnson is injury-prone, but his perennial .400 OBPs are appealing. He and Young are both signed through ’09; Young has a vesting option for ’10. The Yankees or Mets could be in the market for Johnson if their current options don’t work out. Either team could then add Mark Teixeira after the season, creating another surplus.
The Nats have handed the starting shortstop job to Cristian Guzman, creating a battle for second base between Belliard and Felipe Lopez. Lopez responded with a "hell no" regarding a bench role. Hell no to your .659 OPS and lousy defense, Felipe! Belliard is more open to a part-time role, though he’s been outplaying Lopez. Lopez may be the one to trade, given his impending free agency. Barry Svrluga notes that the Orioles have been scouting the Nationals this spring, perhaps with the idea of acquiring Belliard or Lopez if they trade Brian Roberts to the Cubs. The O’s are also interested in Mark Loretta and Juan Uribe for that reason.
Nats To Pass On Weaver
Scott Boras found a deal for Kyle Lohse; will he now focus on getting Jeff Weaver a job? On Monday, Jeff’s brother Jered said the Nationals and Cardinals had expressed interest. The Cards are surely out of the mix now, and MLB.com’s Bill Ladson says Weaver has seemingly "priced himself out of the Nats’ pay range." I’ll guess the Nats were thinking $2MM or so.
So if the Nats and Cards are both out, what’s the elder Weaver to do? Baltimore seems to be his best option. Toronto could work. Perhaps the Astros as a long shot.
In a note at the bottom of his article, Ladson also quashes a short-lived Felipe Lopez to the Cubs rumor. He adds that the Dodgers have legitimate interest in Willie Harris.
Odds and Ends: Inge, Greene, Pavano
A few tidbits this morning as we wait to hear more on Fukudome…
- The Tigers and Pirates have had talks about Brandon Inge. Not sure how he fits in with that club, but OK.
- Yesterday Barry Svrluga wrote of a failed Padres-Nats trade worth noting. The Nats would’ve sent Jon Rauch or Chad Cordero plus Felipe Lopez to the Padres for Khalil Greene. The talks fizzled; it never sounded like something the Padres would be interested in. They usually grow their own relievers. Tom Krasovic over at the San Diego Union-Tribune elaborates a little more on Jim Bowden’s love for Greene.
- Carl Pavano, the American Idle, is deciding whether to take a minor league contract with the Yanks. Peter Abraham says the Yankees are offering this to make sure they can collect on insurance.
- Xavier Nady will be tendered a contract, officially putting the rumors to rest.
- The Brewers inked Eric Munson to be their possible backup catcher.
Nats Shopping Rauch For A Shortstop?
The Washington Post’s Barry Svrluga says the Nationals are listening on Felipe Lopez, as you might expect. However they’re hesitant to leave Cristian Guzman as the only person on the roster who can play shortstop. With that in mind, Jim Bowden is shopping Jon Rauch with at least one team in hopes of getting a shortstop. By the way, only one of Rauch/Cordero will get traded, if any.
Trying to think of Rauch scenarios. To the Cubs for Ronny Cedeno? To the Dodgers for Chin-Lung Hu? To the Red Sox for Jed Lowrie?
Nationals Shopping Lopez, Kearns
According to Bill Ladson of MLB.com, the Nationals are shopping shortstop Felipe Lopez and outfielder Austin Kearns. Two targets: Mike Pelfrey of the Mets and Kevin Slowey of the Twins.
It wouldn’t be surprising to see Omar Minaya flip Pelfrey for someone with more immediate value. While the Mets could use Kearns in right field, he’s not the type of return one envisions for Pelfrey. Maybe for a Phil Humber though. Kearns will earn $5MM in ’08, and $8MM in ’09 plus a $10MM club option for ’10 with a $1MM buyout. The 27 year-old hit .266/.355/.411 this year.
The match for Slowey seems better – Lopez could play short for the Twins and Kearns might be able to handle center. However, trading Slowey and Matt Garza in the same offseason seems unlikely, and even less likely if Johan Santana is moved. If Lopez’s defense is truly improved, maybe the Rays would have interest.
Another guy who could work for the Rays is Cristian Guzman. Ladson says the Cubs were rumored in on Guzman but that one was shot down.
Reds Send Kearns, Lopez To Nats In Blockbuster
I was fairly baffled by this trade. How in the world does swapping out Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Brendan Harris make the Reds a better team this year? (Ryan Wagner and Daryl Thompson were also swapped in the deal). Let’s analyze.
Lopez is a below average defensive shortstop. He’s probably amongst the five worst defensive shortstops in the game, as indicated by The Fielding Bible. The Reds are ranked just 12th in the league in defensive efficiency this year. Still, Royce Clayton is no defensive whiz at this point – he’s probably only a shade better than Lopez. So unless Krivsky has some fielding metrics that say otherwise, the gains on defense are minimal. And if both players keep hitting like they have been this year, the Reds lose a full win on offense.
As for the bullpen additions, I’m less impressed after I look more closely. Majewski is a 26 year-old reliever who does not miss bats (career K rate of 5.3 per nine). He’s also generous with the free passes. While he may have squeezed into the list of the ten best setup men last year, he’s not the most reliable option. 23 year-old southpaw Bray is more potential than results thus far, and he hasn’t shown much ability to shut down left-handed hitters. He’s got good stuff, but he’s still just a reliever.
Brendan Harris is a good little player; maybe he’ll be starting at second base for the Reds next year if Brandon Phillips moves over to shortstop. Righty starter Daryl Thompson is just 20, and adds needed depth to the Reds’ farm system. Still, neither has been making anyone’s top prospect list.
I tried to defend Wayne Krivsky a bit at first, but this trade just looks bad. The more I dig in, the less I like the players he acquired. And if the Reds – 1.5 games out of the wild card – don’t make the playoffs by a couple of wins, this trade is the reason.
For the Nats, Kearns would not be a bad option at all in center field. He’s got good range and a good arm. His power potential remains huge, and though RFK will dampen his stats. Great American Ballpark inflates right-handed home runs by about 15% while RFK deflates them by over 20%. This could cost him 5-6 homers annually.
Lopez is seeing his power numbers slip this season as he continues to pound the ball into the ground more than half the time he makes contact. The steals don’t add much value. Strip it down and mostly you’re left with one asset: the ability to draw a walk in 10-12% of his plate appearances. That’s a good thing, but it doesn’t outweigh the negatives. The idea of unloading Lopez made sense, but the execution was poor.
Go over to the Hardball Times to see Aaron Gleeman’s excellent take on the deal.
Reds Send Kearns, Lopez To Nats In Blockbuster
I was fairly baffled by this trade. How in the world does swapping out Austin Kearns and Felipe Lopez for Gary Majewski, Bill Bray, Royce Clayton, and Brendan Harris make the Reds a better team this year? (Ryan Wagner and Daryl Thompson were also swapped in the deal). Let’s analyze.
Lopez is a below average defensive shortstop. He’s probably amongst the five worst defensive shortstops in the game, as indicated by The Fielding Bible. The Reds are ranked just 12th in the league in defensive efficiency this year. Still, Royce Clayton is no defensive whiz at this point – he’s probably only a shade better than Lopez. So unless Krivsky has some fielding metrics that say otherwise, the gains on defense are minimal. And if both players keep hitting like they have been this year, the Reds lose a full win on offense.
As for the bullpen additions, I’m less impressed after I look more closely. Majewski is a 26 year-old reliever who does not miss bats (career K rate of 5.3 per nine). He’s also generous with the free passes. While he may have squeezed into the list of the ten best setup men last year, he’s not the most reliable option. 23 year-old southpaw Bray is more potential than results thus far, and he hasn’t shown much ability to shut down left-handed hitters. He’s got good stuff, but he’s still just a reliever.
Brendan Harris is a good little player; maybe he’ll be starting at second base for the Reds next year if Brandon Phillips moves over to shortstop. Righty starter Daryl Thompson is just 20, and adds needed depth to the Reds’ farm system. Still, neither has been making anyone’s top prospect list.
I tried to defend Wayne Krivsky a bit at first, but this trade just looks bad. The more I dig in, the less I like the players he acquired. And if the Reds – 1.5 games out of the wild card – don’t make the playoffs by a couple of wins, this trade is the reason.
For the Nats, Kearns would not be a bad option at all in center field. He’s got good range and a good arm. His power potential remains huge, and though RFK will dampen his stats. Great American Ballpark inflates right-handed home runs by about 15% while RFK deflates them by over 20%. This could cost him 5-6 homers annually.
Lopez is seeing his power numbers slip this season as he continues to pound the ball into the ground more than half the time he makes contact. The steals don’t add much value. Strip it down and mostly you’re left with one asset: the ability to draw a walk in 10-12% of his plate appearances. That’s a good thing, but it doesn’t outweigh the negatives. The idea of unloading Lopez made sense, but the execution was poor.
Click here to see the fantasy take on this trade over at RotoAuthority.
Go over to the Hardball Times to see Aaron Gleeman’s excellent take on the deal.