By Tim Dierkes | at
As has been speculated for some time, the Padres are close to signing Greg Maddux. Ken Rosenthal has the scoop; he describes the likely signing as a "significant blow to the Dodgers."
Maddux turns 41 next April. Overall in 2006 he won 15 games with a 4.20 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, and 3.2 K/BB. The Professor has reached 199 or more innings every season since 1988. He is one of a kind.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Looks like Randy Wolf is about to become a Dodger. Apparently LA is set to sign him to a one-year deal with an option for 2008; I’d guess it’s in the $6-7M range. The same article speculates that Greg Maddux is looking for a raise on his $9M salary from last year–a two-year deal for Mike Mussina money. I guess I didn’t realize quite what a stud he was after the trade last year, but I don’t know who’s going to give him that kind of cash. I’ve been a Maddux fan since the first time he was with the Cubs, but if you had the choice between Maddux at $22.5M/2 and Ted Lilly at $27M/3, isn’t that a no-brainer? Then again, we don’t know that Lilly won’t get more than that.
Also, Danys Baez looks to be headed to Baltimore. The Orioles seem to think that, whatever their problems were last year, they can be solved with a very expensive bullpen. It’s a three-year deal, according to the Baltimore Sun, and I suppose it could open up the possibility that Chris Ray could be traded for something that the Orioles really need. Like, oh, I don’t know, an 1B/OF/DH type who can hit above replacement level? (Otherwise known as "the Fahey line.")
By Jeff Sackmann
By Tim Dierkes | at
Ken Rosenthal tells us that the Dodgers have acquired Greg Maddux. Will be interesting to see who the Cubs end up with.
UPDATE: CBS Sportsline indicates that the Cubs received Cesar Izturis in return. The Chicago Tribune’s Dave van Dyck has a different take, but ESPN has confirmed the Izturis part.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A report from ESPN’s Amy Nelson indicates that the Dodgers are the "hottest team on Greg Maddux." According to Nelson:
"The deal would be two L.A. prospects for Maddux; one would be a position player, the other a pitcher. And both would be high-level, likely coming from their loaded Triple-A team in Las Vegas."
Well, let’s have a look at Las Vegas’s roster. I could see Delwyn Young as a part of this, and maybe Hong-Chih Kuo as the pitcher. Southpaw starter Greg Miller would be an impressive bounty. Anything above that – Andy LaRoche, Joel Guzman, or Matt Kemp – seems highly unlikely to me. Nelson mentions that the quality of the prospects involved increases the more the Cubs pay Maddux’s salary. About $3.2MM remains; the Cubs should really just eat all of it and get one top-notch prospect.
Probably meaningless tidbit: Guzman sat out tonight’s wild affair against Iowa.
By Tim Dierkes | at
Many are speculating that Greg Maddux’s excellent performance today against the Cardinals was his last as a Cub. He got the win and departed to a standard ovation, tipping his cap to the Chicago faithful.
In other Cubs rumors, Will Carroll mentions today in his latest Will’s Mill update that "the Cubs have received some indications that Aramis Ramirez is going to opt out of his contract at the end of the season, putting them in the same situation that the Brewers were in before moving Carlos Lee."
Though many Cubs fans may not want to admit it, there’s a very solid chance Ramirez tests the market. Does he love Chicago so much as to forego extra years and millions of security? Doubtful. Since when have the Cubs ever gotten a hometown discount, anyway? Sammy Sosa and Kerry Wood seemed to get a hometown surcharge in their massive deals. I suppose there was Andre Dawson, but that’s about it. This is Jim Hendry’s best shot to secure two young position players (and one had better be an outfielder).
Another tasty nugget from Carroll on the Reds:
"They have one offer out on a player that would really signal a new era in Cincy, though it’s unlikely to happen."
My own speculation? The offer is for Miguel Tejada. We know that they’ve kicked the tires. By the way, are you getting sick of the phrase "kicked the tires" yet?
By Tim Dierkes | at
Add the Brewers to the list of teams that could be a fit for Greg Maddux. The shoulder injuries of Tomo Ohka and Ben Sheets seem to be rehabbing normally, so there may not be a vacancy in Milwaukee’s rotation. Still, it never hurts to have too much starting pitching.
Maddux, now 40 years old, is piling on the innings as usual this year. His critics will point to a trend in declining ERAs, but I don’t think it’s that simple. The Professor has continued to pitch like he has since 2003. The only real difference in 2006 is that his hit rate is up to 10.1 per nine. I know it doesn’t seem like it, but researchers have not found the pitcher to have a major influence on the fate of a batted ball. At the most, he might explain 30% of the variance. Luck is a far bigger determinant, and defense and ballpark are signficant too.
Maddux’s ability at this point is probably on par with that of Jeff Weaver. He’s a low 4 ERA type guy, a nice addition for a team in need of depth. He may be worth about 2-3 wins over replacement level from here on out, which may be the difference for a team like the Cardinals, Padres, Brewers, or Dodgers.
If Jim Hendry can find a destination that Maddux likes, pass along the remainder of his $9MM salary, and get a decent young hitter in return, he’s done his job. For some reason I keep thinking of the Brewers’ Corey Hart. He’s versatile and Major League ready, and the Cubs badly need outfield help for the future. The Dodgers’ Delwyn Young could be a possibility, while Ben Johnson could be available from the Padres. Johnson is currently on the DL with a shoulder strain, but he can still be dealt.
Back in April, it was clear Maddux’s value was at its highest point of the season. It wasn’t clear that the Cubs would be this awful, however.
By Tim Dierkes | at
A good one from the rumor mill over at Gotham Baseball. Unfortunately their page is not working right now so here’s a link to MetsBlog’s take on Gotham’s report. According to Gotham, Greg Maddux is being shopped. Interested parties: Mets, Yankees, Brewers, Phillies, Diamondbacks, Royals, and Cardinals.
The Cubs would essentially be reducing their rotation to "Carlos Zambrano and pray for a tornado," but Maddux is an impending free agent. My opinion from a couple of weeks ago: he’s the same old Mad Dog, just with a well-timed hot streak. Still, dealing him now would be a very early white flag for a Cubs team with a $94MM payroll. Doesn’t seem to compute. And the obligatory intradivision thing must be cited for the Brewers and Cards. I am surprised no West Coast teams have been mentioned.
By Tim Dierkes | at
It’s kind of funny to see Jay Mariotti jumping on the Greg Maddux bandwagon after two starts. The secret to Maddux’s quick start is not fitness. In reality, he’s the exact same Professor he has been for the last three years.
Maddux’s H/9 rate fluctuates from season to season. I don’t think he has a lot of control over this. Sure, in his 1992-98 insane peak he certainly allowed fewer hits for a reason. But he gave up tons of hits in ’99 and it looks like a fluke. He seems to have established a new general range since 2003. That range is to allow a little more than a hit per inning, which is fine if you’re walking 30 guys a year. The H/9 was 9.56 last year, his highest since ’99. If regression to the mean brings that down just a little bit and he continues allowing HRs at a league average pace, he’s a sub-4 ERA innings eater. Nothing has changed.
You can just look at the ERAs and see 3.96, 4.02, 4.24 and think well surely he’s due for a 4.40 or 4.50 this year. It’s not that simple, as Maddux could easily post a 3.80 despite being the exact same pitcher he was in ’03.
He’s going to throw a good 220-230 innings, mixing in the occasional rough start here and there. Maddux will have a disastrous start about 10% of the time and a dominant one about half the time (according to Ron Shandler’s PQS pitching logs). Otherwise he keeps you in ballgames, and is easily worth his $9MM salary.
Once he’s a free agent this offseason, he’ll probably shop around for a one-year, $7MM type deal. This would be an excellent signing for any team looking for reliability and depth over upside. Really, it makes sense for the Cubs to retain him. Too much sense, almost. Watch him go to the Padres or somewhere after no one shows interest.
If they don’t plan on re-signing him, or even if they do, the Cubs could look to trade Maddux in July. But even if Wood and Prior are going full steam at that point it’s a needless gamble. Unless a major injury creates a need, Maddux should stay put.
By Tim Dierkes | at
With the hot stove not all that hot at the moment, I thought I’d run down some guys who could be traded between now and July 31st in an attempt to peer into the future. Part 1 of the series will focus on some of the players in their contract year.
Barry Bonds is unlikely to be dealt, given that the Giants have pinned most of their offensive hopes on him. But if, for some reason, the team is out of contention in July and Bonds is looking more awful than usual in the field, a deal to the AL could be in the cards. Adding Bonds at DH could mean 4-5 extra wins in the second half alone, so I’d expect a big bounty even with his $18MM salary and impending free agency.
We’re all pretty much assuming Jose Contreras will be dealt. Some say it’d be most prudent for the Sox to wait til spring training and take stock before sending him off to the Mets, Phillies, or wherever else. On the other hand, if there was ever a time to sell high, it’s right now.
One name I haven’t seen thrown about in trade rumors at all is Greg Maddux. I assume it’s because he’s over 40 and makes $9MM in 2006, but Mad Dog could be a big help to a contender at the deadline. I’ve projected a 3.84 ERA and 1.21 WHIP; he’s got plenty left. Even if the Cubs had to eat a few mil, it’d make more sense to trade Maddux than Jerome Williams. If the health of Wood, Prior, and Miller works out in their favor the Cubs could have a surplus.
Jason Marquis is projected to post a 4.43 ERA in 200 innings. He’d be serviceable as rental for the season, and he’s still on the right side of 30. I’m not sure which teams will be chomping at the bit to give him the three year, $21MM extension he’ll require, but someone will.
Mark Mulder is also under 30, though he’s shown some ugly trends over the past three seasons. It’ll be interesting to see how Walt Jocketty views Mulder – perhaps Mulder will take the St. Louis discount to keep that top-notch defense behind him?
It seems that Andy Pettitte wouldn’t be dealt by the Astros midseason pretty much no matter what. Even when the Astros have been counted out they’ve made the playoffs, so it’d be impossible to justify trading Pettitte to the fanbase.
I’m fairly certain the Cubs will sign Juan Pierre to a long-term deal. Especially if he hits .309 as projected and impresses the old hands with his bunting skills and work ethic. Politically, Jim Hendry almost has to keep Pierre around in case one of the three pitchers sent to Florida pans out.
Jason Schmidt could be a hot commodity, but, like Bonds, is a long shot to be dealt. I think the Giants would look for a young bat in return.
More impending free agents and trade candidates to come…
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