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Johan Santana

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract

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The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.

  • Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
  • Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
  • Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
  • MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
  • Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.

by Cork Gaines

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana’s Contract

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The biggest move of this year’s Hot Stove League was clearly the trade of Johan Santana. The subsequent contract given to Santana by the Mets set a new benchmark for pitchers and could have a lasting trickle-down effect on other pitchers in baseball. The players most likely to cash in on the Santana deal are other young lefties with strong track records. The first fallout appears to be in Cleveland, with the recent news that C.C. Sabathia has broken off contract talks. With pitchers and catchers conducting their first workouts in many camps today, let’s take a look at how Santana’s deal is affecting other pitchers in the blogosphere.

  • Let’s Go Tribe feels that Sabathia could command $150MM on the open market and breaking off contract talks means Sabathia will not be a member of the Indians in 2009.
  • Indians Confidential agrees that Sabathia is "as good as gone."
  • Tribe Report does not think the Indians should give Sabathia a seven-year deal as it is a stretch to think he will be worth $20MM at age 35.
  • MLB Fleece Factor calls it "The Santana Effect" and believes that Santana’s new deal means that A.J. Burnett will likely opt out of his contract in Toronto following the 2008 season. In addition, they believe that there is a possibility that the Jays will look to trade Roy Halladay prior to his 2010 free agency.
  • Rays Index believes there is a good chance the Rays will look to trade Scott Kazmir following the 2008 season. They feel that Santana’s deal will make it nearly impossible for the Rays to sign Kazmir to an extension prior to his 2010 free agency. In addition, the recent bounty obtained by the Orioles for Erik Bedard and the pipeline of top pitching prospects in the Rays’ system, suggest that it is in the best interest of the franchise to move their young ace.

by Cork Gaines

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Erik Bedard

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Another one of baseball’s top young lefties is about to be traded. Last week it was Johan Santana. This week it appears as if Erik Bedard is going to be traded to the Mariners for Adam Jones, a relief pitcher and three top pitching prospects. Despite rumors of a completed deal over a week ago, and worries that Peter Angelos might kill the deal, reports appear to indicate that the trade could be finalized. Any. Minute. Now. But before the deal is completed, let’s take a look at reactions to the Bedard trade from the blogosphere.

  • Camden Chat says farewell and thanks to Erik Bedard. They are now looking forward to watching the 2008 Baltimore Orioles even if the team is destined to lose 100 games.
  • Oriole Magic thinks this entire saga has been more interesting than the regular season will turn out to be.
  • Bleacher Report says there is no prize for finishing 4th in the AL East (tell that to Rays fans) and Peter Angelos needs to OK the deal.
  • Detect-O-Vision compares the Johan Santana deal to the Erik Bedard deal. While the Mariners appear to be offering more for Bedard, their system is much deeper than the Mets and they can afford the price.
  • Caffeinated Confines takes a look at who will play right field for the Mariners if Adam Jones is traded.
  • Bugs & Cranks thinks that this deal, along with the Miguel Tejada deal are moves that the Orioles should have made years ago.
  • Fake Teams takes a look at the three pitching prospects that are expected to be acquired by the Orioles.

by Cork Gaines

C.C. Sabathia Extension Rumors

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2-5-08 at 9:50am: Indians GM Mark Shapiro has no plans to trade Sabathia.  Not a big surprise, since they’re a contending team.

2-4-08: Paul Hoynes of the Cleveland Plain Dealer has some details about the Indians’ December contract extension offer to ace C.C. Sabathia.  The four-year extension would run from 2009 through 2012 and is believed to be between $68-72MM.  There would also probably be some kind of bonus added to Sabathia’s $11.25MM ’08 salary to bring him more in line with his peers.

If Sabathia compares himself to Jake Peavy and Carlos Zambrano, then the Indians’ offer has a chance.  But the new Johan bar is set at about $23MM per year.  Hoynes says the Tribe is probably going to have to revise its offer because of the Mets’ new ace.  Peter Gammons says Santana is "the reason the Indians have no chance of re-signing Sabathia unless someone finds oil in Lake Erie."

You can bet Sabathia and his free agent adventure will receive a ton of coverage from this site come December.

Red Sox To Let Beckett Walk After 2010?

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In Peter Gammons latest piece, he explores the trickle-down effect that the extension signed by Johan Santana will have on other pitchers. While the article focuses on pitchers closer to free agency (ie. C.C. Sabathia), there was one surprising quote from an unnamed Red Sox official:

We’d better enjoy Josh Beckett the next three years.  Because we won’t be able to sign him after his deal is up after 2010.

Beckett, who finished second in the Cy Young voting this past season, will be 28 on Opening Day and is scheduled to make $9.5MM this season, $10.5MM next season, and has a $12MM team option for 2010.  While Beckett will certainly command top-dollar on the open market, it is hard to imagine he would seek a deal in the same range as Santana or Barry Zito, even with inflation factored in. Both Santana ($137.5MM) and Zito ($126MM) are lefties and signed their deals prior to their age 29 season. Beckett, a righty will be 31 when he begins his next deal. Still it is interesting to note that the Red Sox may have already resigned to the idea of not retaining the services of their ace past 2010.

by Cork Gaines

Baseball Blogs Weigh In: Johan Santana

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Unless Omar Minaya fumbles the most important contract negotiation of his career (we can’t see that happening), the biggest story of the 2007-08 off-season now has an ending and the enduring national nightmare is over. Johan Santana is a Met…now we can get back to talking about more important issues like Kyle Lohse and Livan Hernandez. But before we do let’s take a look at reactions to the Santana trade from the blogosphere.

  • Aaron Gleeman is sentimental as his blog has grown up along side Santana’s career. Now he is disappointed in the package the Twins received but hopeful it could still work out in the long run.
  • Twinkie Town believes trading Santana is status-quo for the Twins as the franchise seems to be in a perpetual state of rebuilding. This seems like overreaction considering the Twins have been in the playoffs four of the past six years.
  • Twins Territory is not disappointed in the trade outcome. They believe Bill Smith had his hands tied and four top prospects is a nice haul.
  • Amazin’ Avenue was still smiling hours after the news broke and feels Twins fans must be disappointed in the package they received.
  • Metsgeek doesn’t care what the price was for Santana. He is worth it and they are giddy.
  • The ’Ropolitans are begging the Mets to pay Santana whatever it takes to get him signed. We have to agree. The Mets can’t mess this one up.
  • Fire Brand of the American League (Red Sox) speculates that the Red Sox may have backed off of Santana when they learned the Yankees were no longer interested.
  • My Baseball Bias believes the Yankees won the Santana Sweepstakes by not mortgaging the future for one $150 million player. Normally we would agree, but Santana is not 35 and winning is about pitching and Santana is the best pitcher alive.
  • Was Watching shows that the Mets (and the Red Sox) have done a better job of acquiring pitchers than the Yankees, and Santana is the latest example.

by Cork Gaines

Santana Extension Talk

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UPDATE, 1-31-08 at 5:10pm: Jon Heyman says the Mets are offering a six-year, $129MM extension starting with the ’09 season.  Including his ’07 salary that would amount to seven years and $142.25MM.  Santana’s people want to get the total up around $170MM.  Less than 5% of MLBTR readers believe this won’t get done.

UPDATE, 1-31-08 at 11:31am: ESPN’s Jayson Stark says contract talks will spill over onto Friday, the deadline day.  Chances of failing to reach an agreement are "remote."  For now it appears that the Mets want the sixth year as a vesting option and Santana’s people want it guaranteed.

Stark also adds that Kyle Lohse may not be completely out of the picture for the Mets, even if they do sign Santana.

FROM 1-31-08 at 8:54am:

There’s still the little matter of the Mets signing Johan Santana to perhaps the largest deal ever for a pitcher.  Let’s explore.

  • LEN3 said yesterday to expect an extension (starting with 2009) in the range of six years, $130MM.  Remember, Santana is signed for 2008 at $13.25MM.
  • Charley Walters expects a six-year deal worth more than $150MM (which would include a $7MM signing bonus and performance incentives).
  • Sabernomics says Santana might be worth around $138MM over the 2009-14 seasons.
  • What do you think?  Take MLBTR’s Johan Santana extension poll.  Click here to see the results of this poll.

Twins Wanted Wang/Kennedy For Santana?

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According to Buster Olney in his blog today:

The Twins tried to re-engage the Yankees Monday night, calling and asking, again, for Hughes to be in a package. The Yankees said no, and the Twins then asked, instead, for Chien-Ming Wang and Ian Kennedy, and the Yankees said no.

This differs from Bob Klapisch’s take yesterday.  Klapisch said the Twins’ last-ditch proposal to the Yankees was for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect.  Regardless, the Yankees preferred to enter the ’08 season with Wang, Andy Pettitte, Phil Hughes, and Joba Chamberlain in the rotation.  Kennedy and Mike Mussina will compete for the fifth spot.

Santana Aftermath

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Now that the players have been agreed upon for the Johan Santana trade, some depictions of the 11th-hour negotiations have leaked out.

  • LEN3 says Santana is expected to get a six-year deal worth around $130MM ($21.66MM annually).  He also notes that Santana had given the Twins an end-of-day Tuesday deadline or else he would’ve used his no-trade clause.
  • Bob Klapisch of the Bergen Record chronicles Bill Smith’s last-ditch attempts to get the Yankees and Red Sox involved.  He apparently asked the Yankees for Ian Kennedy, Melky Cabrera, and a top prospect and was denied.  The Red Sox wouldn’t part with Jon Lester or Jacoby Ellsbury.  To me this makes the Yankees and Red Sox look really fickle.  They were willing to offer up these huge packages a few months ago but now both have done a 180? I know the free agent market has shrunk but it’s still crazy that their stances changed so dramatically.
  • Newsday says the Mets added Deolis Guerra as the final offer yesterday. 
  • Joe Posnanski has heard many varying opinions on the deal.

Thoughts On The Johan Santana Trade

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Seems that this deal is official enough to evaluate.  We know for a fact that the Twins will receive Carlos Gomez, Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey, and Deolis Guerra.  The general consensus seems to be that Twins GM Bill Smith passed on other offers that were better than this.

If Smith had taken the Yankees’ best offer, he’d have an MLB-ready pitcher who was very recently regarded as the game’s best pitching prospect (Phil Hughes).  He’d also have a solid regular center fielder in Melky Cabrera.  And the Twins would’ve gotten a couple of upside players on top of that.

Boston’s top offer was better as well.  The Twins could’ve filled center field, shortstop, and closer needs immediately with Jacoby Ellsbury, Jed Lowrie, and Justin Masterson.

But that’s just my take.  The best folks to evaluate the Twins’ return will be Baseball America, Keith Law, and Baseball Prospectus’ Kevin Goldstein.  The Twins could very well come out smelling like a rose; they just chose riskier, less proven players.  As for the Mets, Omar Minaya deserves all the accolades for acquiring the best pitcher in baseball without surrendering his top prospect or anyone from the big league club.

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