Time For Yankees/Phils Rumors?
With the Yankees struggling so much to assemble a healthy five-man rotation, it was only inevitable that rumors will begin to surface about a trade between the Yankees and Phillies, given the latter’s surplus of starting pitchers and Brian Cashman’s regret a few years ago at letting Jon Lieber get away.
Not only does Philly have six starters on the big league roster, but J.A. Happ — another lefty — has been dominating International League hitters (2.05 ERA, 10.23 K/9, .194 BAA) providing the appearance of organizational depth when it comes to starting pitching.
But unless the Phillies get a deal that is decidedly in their favor, it’s hard to believe they can afford to move a starter. The reassignment of Brett Myers to the bullpen has coincided with the team’s stretch of good play, and Freddy Garcia is still struggling to move the radar gun above 90. While Happ has been good, he’s also walked 13 in 22 innings.
The bottom line is that the Phillies’ depth at starting pitching isn’t as strong as it appears on the surface. And since the team is winning, perhaps the Phillies shouldn’t fix what ain’t broke.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
Garcia’s Injury Halts Lieber Trade
This is my second contribution to MLBTradeRumors.com and with this entry, I have yet to comment on a trade that might be happening. So far, when it comes to the Phillies, it’s been all about trades that aren’t going to happen.
Yesterday afternoon, manager Charlie Manuel told reporters that Jon Lieber, the subject of considerable trade speculation since December, would begin to pitch exclusively out of the bullpen, not because of poor performance, but because he was the odd-man out on a team with six starting pitchers. Later in the evening, Freddy Garcia was pulled from the first inning. Besides suffering from numerous big hits by the Toronto Blue Jays lineup, Garcia’s velocity was down and he reported experiencing tightness in his right biceps.
With this development, it’s likely that for the time being, life will change very little for Lieber and he will slide right back into the starting rotation while Garcia’s health problems are sorted out. Lieber won’t be traded anywhere any time soon.
Tom Goyne is the author of Balls, Sticks, & Stuff, a Phillies-centric site, and maintains the Phloggers’ Pheeds page, a source for the latest commentary from around the "phlogosphere".
Lieber, Kim Rumors
Troy E. Renck of the Denver Post has some trade rumor tidbits from around baseball this morning. To summarize:
- Renck does not think the Phils truly want to use Jon Lieber as a reliever, and mentions two scenarios floating around. Lieber could be paired with Aaron Rowand and sent to the White Sox, which I would think would require at least Mike MacDougal. Would be interesting to see Liebs back in Chicago if old pals KW and "Stand Pat" Gillick can work it out. Or, he could go to Milwaukee for Kevin Mench. Such a trade would have to push Claudio Vargas to the bullpen.
- Renck says the Rockies like Mark Hendrickson despite his mediocrity and their stable of starters. The Dodgers would like to include Hendrickson as part of a bigger deal for a slugger.
- Byung-Hyun Kim to Florida is a long shot unless the Rox eat most of his $2.5MM salary. The Rocky Mountain News reiterates that the interested parties are Florida, Oakland, and Texas. You can add the Pirates to that list as well. The Bucs could also trade for Armando Benitez.
- John Thomson seems likely to be released. The A’s have been rumored.
Would White Sox Acquire Lieber?
Phil Rogers throws out the possibility in today’s column, suggesting the White Sox trade for Aaron Rowand and Jon Lieber. Mike MacDougal would probably be involved in such a deal.
After trading away several starters, one would not expect the White Sox to be in the market for starting pitching. Kenny Williams is unpredictable though. And it is true that the Sox scouted Carl Pavano‘s last start. It would be interesting to see Liebs return to Chicago, but for the Sox to send their starter surplus to Philly only to get it back seems unlikely.
Rogers thinks the Mets, Cards, Astros, Braves, and Giants would all be nice fits for Lieber. Not sure whether the Phils would want to help the Mets or Braves improve their pitching staffs, however.
More On Rowand Rumors
Just a few tidbits regarding yesterday’s Sun-Times story that the White Sox may reacquire Aaron Rowand.
The Philadelphia Inquirer says that the White Sox have been scouting recent Phillies games, though Rowand did not play yesterday. Additionally, the Delco Times speculates that the availability of Rowand is directly related to the fine play of Greg Dobbs this spring. The waiver pickup could platoon with Jayson Werth in right field, with Shane Victorino moving to center.
In a related topic, Buster Olney said today that any Lieber/Rios talks are dead but that the Rangers might make sense for Lieber.
Lieber Showcase Goes Well
One of the most likely players to be traded this spring is 37 year-old starter Jon Lieber. He tossed a couple of scoreless frames yesterday in front of plenty of scouts. Liebs makes $7.5MM in the last year of his deal. If he can come up with 180 innings of 4.50 ball, he’s worth it as a fourth starter. Were I the Phillies, I would not be in any rush to make a deal. Use Adam Eaton out of the pen, sit on the surplus and enjoy it. How many teams keep all five of their starters healthy the entire year?
A Lieber trade does appear inevitable though. Aside from the Blue Jays, who else might be interested? How about the Astros? They’ve got a couple of decent relievers and the need for a solid starter. The Rangers could get involved if Eric Gagne is healthy. And the Twins might be a decent fit as well.
Gillick Visits Ricciardi
Phillies GM Pat Gillick swung by the Blue Jays’ camp yesterday to talk some baseball with J.P. Ricciardi. The Globe and Mail’s Jeff Blair writes that the Phils like Alex Rios and Dustin McGowan and are trying to trade Jon Lieber. Reed Johnson could be a more reasonable bounty for Lieber.
As Blair says, the Jays want to see what they’ve got first. And I’m not sure why the Phillies would be actively trying to acquire an outfielder with Burrell, Rowand, and Victorino under contract. That looks like a decent outfield to me. The Phillies are weak in the bullpen.
If the Jays are to part with Rios, a star in the making, they need a frontline starter. They were asking for quite a bit back in January – Brett Myers or Chad Billingsley and then some. A month before that, Buster Olney first mentioned that Rios could be available for Brad Penny or Joe Blanton.
The only name I’ve heard here that really makes sense is Myers, and the Phils probably didn’t just sign him with the intent of trading him. Billingsley would certainly be a nice return for Toronto, but the Dodgers don’t need Rios.
Cards Hope To Woo Clemens
UPDATE: Hendricks squashed the rumor.
The big story this morning: Walt Jocketty and co. met at length with Roger Clemens‘s agent Randy Hendricks yesterday. Other clients’ of Hendricks were the main topic, but Roger’s name came up. Unlike this winter’s Barry Bonds rumor, Jocketty isn’t denying interest.
The Cardinals have some extra money after missing out on various pitching targets this winter. Clemens is quite a longshot, but it’s certainly fun to speculate. This is the single move with the largest possible impact for St. Louis. Adding 100 innings of the Rocket would probably improve the Cardinals by 3-4 wins, based on PECOTA’s projected WARP. And Murray Chass just stopped reading this post.
Aside from Clemens, the Cards could pursue Carl Pavano, Jon Lieber, or Brad Penny. Penny is the possible impact arm and of course would draw much more interest if he’s available. His overall impact would probably be similar to that of Clemens, but the bounty is to be paid in prospects. Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia, and Chris Duncan could be targets of L.A.
Jon Lieber Action
You know it’s a rough year for pitching when Jon Lieber is a hot commodity. I kid – he’s not that bad. Liebs turns 37 next April, and figures to be the most expendable of Philly’s six starters. He’ll make $7.5MM in 2007.
Home runs and hits got the best of Lieber last year, though his command remained elite. He had a 4.93 ERA overall, but can probably pitch at his second half level (4.53).
The Pirates wanted to bring him back, perhaps hoping they could right the wrong of trading him to the Cubs for Brant Brown. However, John Perrotto tells us that interest has cooled because the Phillies asked for Salomon Torres. Seems like a fair deal to me.
Joe Strauss wrote last week that the Cards could pursue Lieber, just as they did at the trading deadline. For all of Walt Jocketty’s posturing, the team needs one starter. Not sure if any talks are going on here.
A week ago, the Phils had a deal in place to send Lieber to Milwaukee for Kevin Mench and Derrick Turnbow. However, talks dried up two days later. Jim Salisbury threw Texas’s hat into the ring in the same article. The Rangers were another team trying to trade for him in July.
Speaking of last July, the Mets wanted in at that point too.
Machinations for Mench
There’s been surprising interest in Kevin Mench, according to Doug Melvin, and one of the teams who are known to be looking at the right-handed outfielder is the Philadelphia Phillies. One deal that was rumored a few weeks ago was Aaron Rowand for Mench and, perhaps, Damian Miller. The money is about even and Melvin seems to think he needs a proven center fielder, so that seemed plausible, but the Brewers may have balked at including Miller.
So this is interesting: the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel (perhaps optimistically) speculates that Mench could be part of a deal for Jon Lieber. If speculation can lend credence to other speculation, here’s some: the Philadelphia Inquirer mentions that the Phillies could deal Rowand to the White Sox for one of Chicago’s surplus starters, freeing up Lieber for a different deal.
This all makes plenty of sense: it’s essentially a three-way trade in which the White Sox get the CF they want and make room in the rotation for Brandon McCarthy; the Phillies get the corner bat they want, improve the rotation, and open up center for Shane Victorino; and the Brewers take on a bit of payroll (which they have room for, a least a few million’s worth) and fill their one need at the meetings: a mid-rotation starter to take the pressure off of some combination of Claudio Vargas, Carlos Villanueva, and Zach Jackson.
By Jeff Sackmann, Brew Crew Ball