Jose Guillen

Nothing unexpected here – Jose Guillen’s agent, Adam Katz, indicated tonight that the player will decline his option for 2008.  The Mariners can exercise it at $9MM, but then Guillen has the right to void it and forfeit the $500K buyout.  That makes sense – at the bare minimum he’s looking at two years and $20MM.  More likely he gets three years from some team, despite his mercurial nature.  Mercurial is the word most often used to describe Guillen.  I’m not kidding – there are 430 Google results for "jose guillen mercurial."

The Mariners may yet give Guillen an extension; he did a solid job. 

Anyway, the most entertaining part of all of this comes courtesy of Jim Street’s MLB.com article:

When asked if there was a deadline to terminate the option, Katz snapped, "There is, but I’m a busy man and I don’t have time to look it up."

OK then.  Katz is probably occupied trying to find a team to take Sammy Sosa.

According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners are close to completing a three-year contract extension with right fielder Jose Guillen.  The deal would replace Guillen’s ’08 option, running from 2008-10.  Guillen’s bounced back from Tommy John surgery to hit .293/.360/.467 with 19 HR and 83 RBIs so far this year.

Geoff Baker said recently that the Eric Byrnes contract might serve as a model, so Guillen might be in line for about $30MM.  As I mentioned in this post, Wladimir Balentien seems to be the odd man out in Seattle’s outfield.  And in order to give Adam Jones a regular job next year, Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, and Richie Sexson would have to rotate between the first base and DH spots.  More likely, Jones doesn’t play every day unless someone gets hurt.  Remember, the Ms had a chance to dump off Sexson’s contract and chose not to.

U.S.S. Mariner doesn’t like the idea of a Guillen extension.

According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, the Mariners are offering something like two years plus an option to right fielder Jose Guillen.  Guillen is hitting .286/.357/.439 as the Mariners’ #3 hitter.

Back in mid-July, I speculated that it might require something like three years and $36MM to retain Guillen.  Guillen still has a decent shot at 100 RBI.  I think that still holds some weight among decision-makers, like it or not.  Guillen’s actually probably a touch below average offensively for a right fielder. I’m not sure what to make of Guillen’s platoon split – he’s been far better against lefties this year but had the opposite split in 2005 (his last full season).  By most accounts Guillen’s a plus on defense. 

It’s clear that the future Mariner outfield will have Ichiro Suzuki and Adam Jones playing regularly.  They’re locked in with Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro in 2008, seemingly filling the DH spot.  The odd man out seems to be 23 year-old right fielder Wladimir Balentien.  Wlad’s had two awesome months out of four at Triple A this year, leaving him with a nice .308/.378/.561 line with 24 homers.  The Mariners seem to view him as expendable, apparently offering him for Octavio Dotel.  If they sign Guillen through 2010, Balentien will find himself in many more trade rumors this winter.   

Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times spoke to Jose Guillen yesterday about his contract situation.  The 31 year-old right fielder was hesitant to discuss it, but Baker managed to extract some info.  Basically Guillen wants to stay with the Mariners past just 2008.  He would like to finally stay in one place.  Some kind of decision should come before month’s end.

Guillen signed with the Mariners back in December of ’06, receiving a $1MM signing bonus.  His base salary for this year is $4MM, and he can make another $2.75MM in playing time incentives.  The 2008 situation: basically a $9MM club option, which Guillen can void if exercised.

Guillen’s up to a .285/.358/.455 line, and his RBI total will probably approach 100.  After a slow June he’s been raking in July as the team’s cleanup hitter.  Keep in mind though that the bar is set pretty high for a right fielder – league average is .282/.356/.455.

Since Guillen can probably beat one year and $9MM on the open market this winter, the Mariners would have to give him a multiyear deal to keep him.  Say three years, $36MM or so.  At least that seems like market value to me.  Obviously it would be better if the Ms didn’t have to extend him all the way through 2010.

As Baker notes in his post, that the Mariners are entertaining a Guillen extension is a sign that they might trade Adam Jones or Wladimir Balentien within the next two weeks (probably for pitching).  Both youngsters appear Major League ready and could fetch something good.  But Javier Vazquez probably wouldn’t approve a trade to Seattle, leaving the starting pitcher pickings slim.   

I consider this to be one of the winter’s better free agent signings: the Mariners are close to getting Jose Guillen for one year and $5MM.  The deal includes incentives for 2007 and an option for ’08.

Here’s U.S.S. Mariner’s take.  The signing could leave Chris Snelling without full-time work next year, despite decent work in 100 ABs.