Jose Guillen Likely To Reach Free Agency
Nothing unexpected here – Jose Guillen‘s agent, Adam Katz, indicated tonight that the player will decline his option for 2008. The Mariners can exercise it at $9MM, but then Guillen has the right to void it and forfeit the $500K buyout. That makes sense – at the bare minimum he’s looking at two years and $20MM. More likely he gets three years from some team, despite his mercurial nature. Mercurial is the word most often used to describe Guillen. I’m not kidding – there are 430 Google results for "jose guillen mercurial."
The Mariners may yet give Guillen an extension; he did a solid job.
Anyway, the most entertaining part of all of this comes courtesy of Jim Street’s MLB.com article:
When asked if there was a deadline to terminate the option, Katz snapped, "There is, but I’m a busy man and I don’t have time to look it up."
OK then. Katz is probably occupied trying to find a team to take Sammy Sosa.
Odds and Ends: Wakefield, Guillen, Lowell
Some random rumorage not quite worthy of individual posts…
- Jeff Goldberg of the Hartford Courant speculates that Tim Wakefield could be making his final start for Boston tonight. With Wakefield, the Red Sox possess one of the most lopsided contracts in baseball history. They have a perpetual $4MM club option with him, one that never goes away until they decline it. But $4MM is nothing to the Sox, and Wakefield was certainly worth that much in ’07. They’ll exercise it.
- The Mariners were once close to an extension for Jose Guillen, but currently it’s on the backburner. Even if the team exercises his $9MM option, Guillen can and probably will void it. He’s going to want at least three years, $30MM. The Mariners could get by without him.
- Mike Lowell has more Philly connections than I realized. The Phils definitely seem like his second choice if the Red Sox let him go. I think the Phillies should just sign Mike Lamb and spend the excess money on pitching.
- Neal Huntington’s first move: a waiver claim of Kevin Thompson. It’s over now.
- Joel Pineiro gets a $500K signing bonus, $5MM in ’08, and $7.5MM in ’09. Originally he wanted to test the market, but he appreciated the Cardinals giving him a chance.
- John Schuerholz found Scott Boras’ suggestions obnoxious and idiotic. Also, Steve Phillips comments on the A-Rod/Mets situation back in 2000.
Mariners Close To Extension With Guillen
According to the Seattle Post-Intelligencer, the Mariners are close to completing a three-year contract extension with right fielder Jose Guillen. The deal would replace Guillen’s ’08 option, running from 2008-10. Guillen’s bounced back from Tommy John surgery to hit .293/.360/.467 with 19 HR and 83 RBIs so far this year.
Geoff Baker said recently that the Eric Byrnes contract might serve as a model, so Guillen might be in line for about $30MM. As I mentioned in this post, Wladimir Balentien seems to be the odd man out in Seattle’s outfield. And in order to give Adam Jones a regular job next year, Raul Ibanez, Jose Vidro, and Richie Sexson would have to rotate between the first base and DH spots. More likely, Jones doesn’t play every day unless someone gets hurt. Remember, the Ms had a chance to dump off Sexson’s contract and chose not to.
U.S.S. Mariner doesn’t like the idea of a Guillen extension.
Odds and Ends
Some random rumors and links for Tuesday afternoon…
- The Rockies signed Mark Redman to a minor league contract. It makes sense to add some depth, but I like the team’s plan of using high-octane arms Ubaldo Jimenez and Franklin Morales instead of the safe veteran options.
- Rick Sutcliffe‘s thoughts on showboating.
- At one time, it seemed that Jason Jennings would be primed for a big payday this winter. He still could get a Marquis contract despite his 6.45 ERA in 18 starts. But prospective buyers have to be concerned that he replied "I don’t know" when asked if he is healthy. By the way, that link details a failed ballpark marriage proposal that resulted in popcorn being dumped on the guy’s head. On the Jumbotron.
- It wouldn’t be the Kansas City Star without an enormous pixellated close-up of the player in question. This time it’s Mark Grudzielanek, who’s been extended through 2008. Grudz wouldn’t have reached the 500 PAs needed to guarantee his $4MM option for ’08.
- The Red Sox still haven’t spoken to Mike Lowell about a contract extension. He wants to stay, and Nick Cafardo suggests Jermaine Dye could be the comp at two years, $22MM. That’d be a major concession for Lowell, who’d be the best free agent third baseman unless A-Rod opts out. One scenario has Kevin Youkilis moving to third base and some sort of league average first baseman stepping in, like the newly acquired Chris Carter. Another has the Red Sox signing Alex Rodriguez. The middle ground to those extremes is just to agree on a two-year deal with Lowell. It’d make sense for the Red Sox to hold off on Lowell until they see what A-Rod does.
- The Eric Byrnes contract may serve as a model for Jose Guillen.
- Tom Koch-Weser of STATS, Inc. has a new WHIFF profile of San Diego’s Chris Young. A must-read as always.
Mariners Still Talking Extension With Guillen?
According to Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times, the Mariners are offering something like two years plus an option to right fielder Jose Guillen. Guillen is hitting .286/.357/.439 as the Mariners’ #3 hitter.
Back in mid-July, I speculated that it might require something like three years and $36MM to retain Guillen. Guillen still has a decent shot at 100 RBI. I think that still holds some weight among decision-makers, like it or not. Guillen’s actually probably a touch below average offensively for a right fielder. I’m not sure what to make of Guillen’s platoon split – he’s been far better against lefties this year but had the opposite split in 2005 (his last full season). By most accounts Guillen’s a plus on defense.
It’s clear that the future Mariner outfield will have Ichiro Suzuki and Adam Jones playing regularly. They’re locked in with Raul Ibanez and Jose Vidro in 2008, seemingly filling the DH spot. The odd man out seems to be 23 year-old right fielder Wladimir Balentien. Wlad’s had two awesome months out of four at Triple A this year, leaving him with a nice .308/.378/.561 line with 24 homers. The Mariners seem to view him as expendable, apparently offering him for Octavio Dotel. If they sign Guillen through 2010, Balentien will find himself in many more trade rumors this winter.
Decision Time On Jose Guillen
Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times spoke to Jose Guillen yesterday about his contract situation. The 31 year-old right fielder was hesitant to discuss it, but Baker managed to extract some info. Basically Guillen wants to stay with the Mariners past just 2008. He would like to finally stay in one place. Some kind of decision should come before month’s end.
Guillen signed with the Mariners back in December of ’06, receiving a $1MM signing bonus. His base salary for this year is $4MM, and he can make another $2.75MM in playing time incentives. The 2008 situation: basically a $9MM club option, which Guillen can void if exercised.
Guillen’s up to a .285/.358/.455 line, and his RBI total will probably approach 100. After a slow June he’s been raking in July as the team’s cleanup hitter. Keep in mind though that the bar is set pretty high for a right fielder – league average is .282/.356/.455.
Since Guillen can probably beat one year and $9MM on the open market this winter, the Mariners would have to give him a multiyear deal to keep him. Say three years, $36MM or so. At least that seems like market value to me. Obviously it would be better if the Ms didn’t have to extend him all the way through 2010.
As Baker notes in his post, that the Mariners are entertaining a Guillen extension is a sign that they might trade Adam Jones or Wladimir Balentien within the next two weeks (probably for pitching). Both youngsters appear Major League ready and could fetch something good. But Javier Vazquez probably wouldn’t approve a trade to Seattle, leaving the starting pitcher pickings slim.
Forgotten Trade Candidates
Amidst all the Buehrle/Jacque rumors floating around this week, we’ve neglected to write about the many other players who could be traded in July. Let’s give a little press to three forgotten players who could be on the move.
Kyle Lohse, SP, CIN – I was pretty high on Lohse after April, thinking he was about to go all Bronson Arroyo on the NL. Good Bronson, that is. But Lohse followed up his first four starts by going 2-10 with a 6.27 ERA and 4.4 K/9. And that actually included a shutout against the Pirates. It’s hard to see how Lohse can help a pennant contender this year, but as a Boras client and impending free agent earning $4.2MM, Wayne Krivsky should dump him off somewhere. OK, so now that I think about it, he’s more of a DFA candidate than a trade candidate.
Joe Kennedy, SP, OAK – Billy Beane might be able to move the 28 year-old southpaw and free agent-to-be for something useful. Kennedy makes only $2.8MM and has an ERA under 4. That might not last with his microscopic strikeout rate though. With Esteban Loaiza on the shelf and Rich Harden questionable, Beane might have to hold off and take the draft picks for Kennedy. But given Kennedy’s strong groundball tendencies and the Phillies’ lousy starting pitching, maybe they could match up.
Jose Guillen, RF, SEA – Guillen is earning $4MM this year with a $9MM club option for ’08. The Mariners are just 2.5 games out of the wild card, and their rotation could use a boost. Guillen has posted a subpar line for a right fielder – .257/.330/.412. I’m not sure how much trade value he has, but the Mariners already have a superior player ready to go at Triple A in Adam Jones. Guillen is on pace for about 20 homers and 90 RBIs, so maybe some GM would bite on that. Teams looking for an outfielder with some pop could include the Royals, Twins, Mets, Diamondbacks, Dodgers, and Padres.
Guillen Signs with M’s
Angels. Check. A’s. Check. Now Jose Guillen can add one more AL West team onto his list of teams he’s played for. The Seattle PI is reporting that the Mariners have signed Guillen to a one-year $5.5MM contract, $3MM of which will be incentives. There is also an option for 2008 at $9MM.
Seems like a decent deal for a guy who, when healthy, can hit somewhere between 25-30 homers. Of course the reason he wasn’t signed long-term is because 1) He’s a malcontent, and 2) He had reconstructive elbow surgery during the summer. All indications are though that he should be ready to go by January, so he should be fine for ST.
Mariners To Sign Jose Guillen
I consider this to be one of the winter’s better free agent signings: the Mariners are close to getting Jose Guillen for one year and $5MM. The deal includes incentives for 2007 and an option for ’08.
Here’s U.S.S. Mariner’s take. The signing could leave Chris Snelling without full-time work next year, despite decent work in 100 ABs.