Managers On The Hot Seat
It is a slow news day, so we are going to venture a bit off the beaten path…As spring training is now in full swing, a number of managers may have their jobs on the line during the ’08 season. Three managers are in the final year of their deals and another 12 managers have two years left on their contracts. This second group will be due either an extension or a pink slip next winter as few teams are willing to play out a season with a lame-duck manager. Therefore, any manager with two years remaining on their contracts (including options) will likely have their fate determined prior to the ’09 season.
Ignoring managers that may be on the hot seat for other reasons (i.e. Willie Randolph), here is a list of managers that could potentially have their jobs on the line in ’08 based on their current contract situations. (Numbers in parentheses represent the number of years remaining on current contract)
- Cecil Cooper, HOU (2)
- Bob Geren, OAK (1+1 team option)
- John Gibbons, TOR (1)
- Bobby Cox, ATL (1)
- Ned Yost, MIL (1+1 team option)
- Tony LaRussa (2)
- Bruce Bochy (2)
- John McLaren, SEA (1)
- Fredi Gonzalez, FLA (2)
- Dave Trembley, BAL (1+1 team option)
- Bud Black, SD (1+1 team option)
- Joe Maddon, TB (2)
- Clint Hurdle, COL (2)
- Jim Leyland, DET (2)
- Ron Gardenhire, MIN (2)
Taking a closer look at the list…Of the managers in the final year of their deal, Cox will be back if he chooses. LaRussa and Leyland may very well enter ’09 without new deals considering their ages. Yost, Gardenhire, Hurdle and Black look like locks for extensions prior to ’09. However, the remaining eight names on the list (Cooper, Geren, Bochy, Gonzalez, Trembley, Maddon, Gibbons, McLaren) may very well be managing for their jobs in ’08.
By Cork Gaines
Long-Term Deal For Felix Hernandez?
According to John Hickey of the Seattle PI, a long-term deal for Felix Hernandez before the end of Spring Training seems possible. Hernandez won’t make much above the minimum for ’08, but maybe the Mariners can buy out his 2009-11 arbitration years at a discount. Hickey notes that Ms GM Bill Bavasi "detests the arbitration process."
The Padres bought out Chris Young‘s arb years for $13.25MM in an extension done a year ago. Around the same time, Matt Cain received about the same amount to cover his arb years (though with a club option for the third). Based on those, Felix could push for $15-17MM or so in my estimation. Thoughts?
Rumor Royalty: Geoff Baker
Geoff Baker is our Rumor Royalty recipient for the Mariners. He covers the team’s beat for the Seattle Times. He also keeps a blog here.
Geoff has kindly agreed to answer some questions for MLBTR readers. Please leave your Mariners hot stove queries in the comments and I’ll choose my favorites.
Where Will The Starters Go? AL West Edition
Sorry for the delay from the last edition of Where Will The Starters Go. Since then, we’ve seen two guys come off the market in Kris Benson and Odalis Perez, and another strongly speculated to sign: Shawn Chacon with the Astros. So here’s what we’ve got left:
Bartolo Colon, Josh Fogg, Freddy Garcia, Byung-Hyun Kim, Kyle Lohse, Rodrigo Lopez, Eric Milton, Tomo Ohka, Russ Ortiz, John Thomson, Jeff Weaver, David Wells
Once again, I’m open to corrections on my pitching depth charts. I tried to cull as much information from blogs and sites like Baseball America as possible.
Anaheim Angels: John Lackey, Jered Weaver, Ervin Santana, Joe Saunders, Jon Garland, Dustin Mosely, Kelvim Escobar, Nick Adenhart, Nick Green
Seattle Mariners: Erik Bedard, Felix Hernandez, Carlos Silva, Miguel Batista, Jarrod Washburn, Horacio Ramirez, Cha Seung Baek, Ryan Feierabend
Oakland A’s: Rich Harden, Joe Blanton, Justin Duchscherer, Lenny DiNardo, Dana Eveland, Dan Meyer, Chad Gaudin, Dallas Braden, Jerry Blevins, Gio Gonzalez
Texas Rangers: Brandon McCarthy, Kevin Millwood, Vicente Padilla, Jason Jennings, Kason Gabbard, Luis Mendoza, Eric Hurley, Matt Harrison, Elizardo Ramirez
The Angels look to open the season with Lackey, Weaver, Santana, Saunders, and Garland in the rotation, thanks to a Kelvim Escobar injury. So they’ve got five solid starters, with a sixth coming in time for May. Mosely will likely start the year in the bullpen, but can start in a pinch. Nick Green had a decently impressive year at AA in 2007, and is on the 40-man roster, so you have to figure he’s in the succession plans should the team befall an injury. Adenhart would require some manuevering, since he’s not on the 40-man. Yet, this all might be moot, as Mike Scioscia has said that the team won’t be signing any free agent starters.
I’m kind of disappointed not to put Brandon Morrow on this list, but it’s been made pretty clear that he’ll be in the bullpen this year. I personally don’t see the sense in drafting a guy at No. 5 then going and signing Carlos Silva to start over him. But, again, I don’t follow the M’s specifically, so I might be missing something here. There’s some depth there for certain, with six guys projected. They also have Eric O’Flaherty on the 40-man. So it appears Seattle has some decent depth, though I’m not so sure they’re keen on giving starts to Baek, Ramirez, and Feieraband. Would the M’s consider bringing back Weaver? Probably not, unless they were in a real bind. Josh Fogg? Once again, it’s tough to see them signing anyone unless there is an injury.
The list might be able to go on longer for Oakland, but I’ll stop it there. They have a ton of options, and since Billy Beane has basically indicated that this is a rebuilding year, it doesn’t seem to make much sense to sign a free agent starter. Then again, he did go out and get Keith Foulke, and he made that surprise move to get Esteban Loaiza a couple of years ago. So he could definitely surprise and bring in someone. Maybe Colon on a one-year with an option? Beane has done stranger things.
The Rangers are another team with a ton of depth beyond their set starters. Yes, we’ll see Millwood, McCarthy, Padilla, Jennings, and probably Gabbard start in the rotation. I’d add Kameron Loe and Robinson Tejeda to the list, but it appears they’ll start in the bullpen. They do have starters in case of an injury, once again, including Tejeda and Loe, but none have the experience or track record you’d really look for. I can see them jumping in on Colon or Fogg in case of injury. But barring that, they could look to add some depth, maybe with Kim. I don’t see them making a commitment to a guy like Kyle Lohse, though.
A note before continuing on to the NL: It doesn’t look like this crop fits in well anywhere yet. Teams are for the most part filled out five-deep with starters, so these guys are really looking for an injury or some ineffectiveness come game time in March. I’ve been opening up the "in case of injury" portion, because it appears that’s what it will take for one of these guys to land somewhere, especially if it’s a Major League deal.
– Joe
Padres Rumors: Stewart, Barrett
MLB.com’s Corey Brock quotes Kevin Towers as saying a free agent signing is unlikely, which implies that Shannon Stewart is not on the radar. Towers still may add an outfielder via trade.
The idea of the Padres and Mariners being interested in Stewart was misconstrued a bit. Jerry Crasnick said Towers "might be tempted to look at a free agent" and that the Mariners "seem like a potential fit." My summary of his article said the Mariners and Padres were possibilities. I should’ve been more clear that Crasnick was speculating on those two clubs rather than reporting specific interest – sorry about that. As for Stewart, only the Blue Jays have made an offer. He came up in the Toronto organization and had some nice seasons for them.
Back to the Padres. Brock adds that Michael Barrett is not likely to be traded – Towers likes having two starting-caliber catchers on the roster. Not an ideal situation for Barrett, but it was his choice to accept the Padres’ offer of arbitration.
Four Teams Considering Trot Nixon
MONDAY: The Jays will pass on Nixon. The D’Backs liked what they saw.
SUNDAY: According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, four teams watched 33 year-old outfielder Trot Nixon audition in Tucson today: the D’Backs, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Dodgers. Nixon earned $4MM in ’07 while hitting .251/.342/.336 for the Tribe in 354 plate appearances. He was pretty much injury-free.
Nixon’s calling card had typically been his ability to rake right-handed pitching. He hit .256/.352/.345 against righties in ’07, drawing plenty of walks but displaying no power. Rather than a platoon he seems in line for a bench job this year.
Mariners May Lock Up Several Players
I noticed a John Hickey article from three days ago that hasn’t been mentioned here at MLBTR. Hickey notes that the Mariners like to sign players to extensions during spring if possible. He assesses the chances of extensions for Felix Hernandez, Erik Bedard, Kenji Johjima, Raul Ibanez, and Richie Sexson in the article.
Johjima, Ibanez, and Sexson are all set to reach free agency after the ’08 season. Johjima seems the most likely to stay, though prospect Jeff Clement may be close to big league ready. Sexson is as good as gone, while the decision on Ibanez will likely hinge on ’08. I’m not sure how Jose Vidro‘s vesting option for ’09 works; Ibanez may be best served filling his DH spot.
Hickey expects to see Felix locked up before the season begins. A deal would buy out his three arbitration years (2009-11), at least. The Ms could also incorporate the ’08 season into the contract. The Angels bought out John Lackey‘s three arb years for $17MM, but that was two years ago. Chris Young‘s deal covered his final four years of team control for $14.5MM; that was signed a year ago. Matt Cain‘s contract may also be a comparable.
Hickey does see Bedard getting an extension; he can become a free agent after the ’09 season. Bedard recently signed at $7MM for ’08. His deal could be massive, in the $18-19MM per year range.
Shannon Stewart Switches Agents
Shannon Stewart had a bounceback 2007, finally staying healthy and hitting .290/.345/.394 as Oakland’s left fielder. Though his left field defense ranked seventh at the position according to the Fielding Bible’s panel of experts, a sub-.400 SLG doesn’t work for a corner outfielder. He hit all of his playing time incentives in ’07, earning a total salary of $2.5MM.
ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick notes that Stewart "apparently scared off some clubs by looking for a two-year deal earlier this winter." Is that something Stewart pushed for, or was it his representatives at Legacy Sports Group? Either way, Stewart has switched to Barry Praver and Scott Shapiro given his lingering unemployment.
Crasnick suggests the Mariners and Padres as two possibilities for Stewart, who is likely to sign quickly under the new representation. If he sets his sights on one year and a fourth outfielder role he should find something. If Stewart signs elsewhere and Mike Piazza retires, the A’s stand to snag the 39th overall pick in June. The A’s could find the next Joba Chamberlain, Clay Buchholz, or Huston Street with that pick.
Four Teams Considering Trot Nixon
According to ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick, four teams watched 33 year-old outfielder Trot Nixon audition in Tucson today: the D’Backs, Blue Jays, Mariners, and Dodgers. Nixon earned $4MM in ’07 while hitting .251/.342/.336 for the Tribe in 354 plate appearances. He was pretty much injury-free.
Nixon’s calling card had typically been his ability to rake right-handed pitching. He hit .256/.352/.345 against righties in ’07, drawing plenty of walks but displaying no power. Rather than a platoon he seems in line for a bench job this year.
Erik Bedard Trade Official
1:30pm: Ken Rosenthal reports that the deal is officially done. The Mariners send Adam Jones, Chris Tillman, George Sherrill, Tony Butler, and Kam Mickolio to Baltimore for Erik Bedard. I’ll have some analysis on the deal later this afternoon. Rosenthal also notes that the Cubs "remain heavily interested" in Brian Roberts, so that deal could be next as the gutting of the Orioles continues.
10:45am: Geoff Baker of the Seattle Times says Erik Bedard‘s physical could carry over into today. That means an announcement will come this afternoon at the earliest, or perhaps Saturday. Baker also goes into some detail about 27 year-old Venezuelan baseball writer Augusto Cardenas, who helped start this debacle.
For a change of pace, think of the human element to this story. It’ll make it more interesting. Read SI.com’s recent profile on Bedard. Anyone who breaks up the day with a few rounds of RBI Baseball is alright by me.
I think video game designers are so focused on graphics these days that they neglect gameplay. A game like RBI Baseball is more inclusive and fun than the current stuff. People of all ages can figure it out in two minutes and have a good time. Isn’t that the point?