Comparing Carlos Guillen and Michael Young
Michael Young‘s recent contract extension, which 56.6% of you liked, could inform negotiations for Carlos Guillen‘s next deal. Guillen is among the ten best free agents available after the 2007 season.
Let’s compare the two shortstops. They have nearly identical body types, though Guillen is a year older. Guillen’s got a touch more power; both consistently hit for a high average. Guillen draws more walks, so he’s in better shape if the batting average starts to decline. Both have questions about their ability to stay at shortstop in the long term. Both are significantly underpaid this year.
The largest difference is that Young is far more durable. That’s a huge factor. If you factor in the health and age difference, it’s obvious Guillen should not get a five-year, $80MM deal. The Tigers seem willing to offer a four-year extension, taking him through 2011. Rather than Young’s $16MM AAV, Guillen should be in line for something more like $14-15MM. He wants to stay in Detroit, so something like 4/52 might make sense. PECOTA would support Detroit making such an offer.
What say you? Guess the length and AAV of Guillen’s contract in today’s MLBTR poll and compare to other readers.
Today’s Poll: Michael Young
We’re trying something new here at MLBTradeRumors.com, a reader poll. Today’s question:
Was Michael Young‘s contract extension a smart move by the Rangers?
Click here to take the poll; you can also view the results.
Michael Young Gets $80MM Deal
Rangers shortstop Michael Young finalized his five-year, $80MM contract extension today. The deal runs from 2009-13.
Granted, Young is a huge bargain for 2007-08. The Rangers basically erased that advantage by overpaying him past his peak. I will have more thoughts on this later tonight, but I have a feeling that this contract will not be well-received by analysts.
Lone Star Ball has a poll up about the signing; most Rangers fans responding feel that it is an "Okay deal for the Rangers — they overpaid, but not by enough to make it a bad deal."
Kinsler Next Up For Rangers
With Michael Young nearly locked up long-term, the Rangers are now trying to lock up his double-play partner Ian Kinsler. Kinsler would be arbitration-eligible after the ’08 season. It’s a Ranger tradition, the multiyear contract to avoid arbitration.
The outlook is good for Kinsler entering his age 25 season. He hit .286/.347/.454 as a rookie in 120 games. He spent a quarter of the season on the DL with a dislocated thumb but is ready to go this spring. The Rangers will bat him second, ninth, and occasionally leadoff. Kinsler’s PECOTA calls for a jump to .285/.345/.475 this year.
Rangers Close To Michael Young Extension
According to T.R. Sullivan of MLB.com, the Rangers are making progress on a long-term deal with shortstop Michael Young and may have something completed this week. Young is already under contract through ’08; the extension would run through 2013, buying out five years of free agency.
The model for the contract is Chase Utley‘s deal, where each potential year of free agency was worth $15MM. Baseball Prospectus’s valuations only run through 2011, but indicate that the Rangers will come out just fine.
Young will be locked in as the face of the franchise through age 36. Mark Teixeira, on the other hand, will become a free agent after 2008 and is represented by Scott Boras. The Mets could be a suitor, but the Rangers will discuss an extension with him first.
Rangers Sign Bruce Chen
The Rangers hope to add some competition to the fifth starter slot – they signed Bruce Chen today to a minor league non-roster deal.
I like the idea of signing Chen, but not for the Rangers. He’s healthy, left-handed, and not quite 30. He posted a fine 3.83 ERA in the AL East as recently as 2005. However, the marriage of an extreme flyball pitcher and a ballpark that inflates homers by 12% doesn’t seem logical at first glance.
Digging deeper, I found that Ameriquest only inflates right-handed HRs by 2%. However, Chen is much better against righties despite his handedness. Teams can stack their lineups with left-handed sluggers against him. I still don’t get the signing.
Rangers Sign Bruce Chen
The Rangers hope to add some competition to the fifth starter slot – they signed Bruce Chen today to a minor league non-roster deal.
I like the idea of signing Chen, but not for the Rangers. He’s healthy, left-handed, and not quite 30. He posted a fine 3.83 ERA in the AL East as recently as 2005. However, the marriage of an extreme flyball pitcher and a ballpark that inflates homers by 12% doesn’t seem logical at first glance.
Digging deeper, I found that Ameriquest only inflates right-handed HRs by 2%. However, Chen is much better against righties despite his handedness. Teams can stack their lineups with left-handed sluggers against him. I still don’t get the signing.
Sammy!
The Sammy Sosa signing is official in Texas. He’ll make $500,000 if he makes the Opening Day roster, and can reach $2.7MM based on incentives. $200K of that would come from winning Comeback Player of the Year. To quote Sammy:
"My body is in shape, and I’m ready to go."
Ron Washington has this crazy idea that Sammy can play regularly and hit 30 home runs as the Rangers’ fifth place hitter. Fine. Maybe there’s a 10% chance he does that, and it costs very little. However, there is significant risk in this signing. It is that Sammy takes away ABs from better players. The Orioles gave him 380 ABs in ’05. If the Rangers stick with him for 200 ABs, a third of a season, and he’s awful, that could cause them to miss the playoffs. It’d be different if this was the Nationals.
Sosa Agrees To Deal With Rangers
UPDATE: MLB.com reports that the Rangers have agreed in principle to an incentive-laden, $500,000 minor league contract with Sosa.
The amusing experiment continues, as the Rangers have offered Sammy Sosa a minor league contract and invited him to spring training. Plus, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick has a source who says the two parties are "working toward an agreement."
Judging from Jon Daniels’s positive comments towards Sosa, it appears that an incentive-based deal will get done. I don’t know. A part of me wants to see how this turns out. Will he get his 12 homers?
Amusingly, Rafael Palmeiro tried to jump onto the train but was shot down. Somewhere, Juan Gonzalez just shed a tear.
Rangers Give Sammy A Look
Sammy! Sammy Sosa worked out at Ameriquest today in hopes of securing a gig with Texas, where it all began. Sosa had some awesome teammates back when he was on the ’89 Rangers as a 20 year old. Here’s a partial list of his mentors:
Ruben Sierra
Rafael Palmeiro
Julio Franco
Pete Incaviglia
Buddy Bell
Juan Gonzalez
Thad Bosley
Dean Palmer
Wilson Alvarez
Kevin Brown
Charlie Hough
Jamie Moyer
Kenny Rogers
Nolan Ryan
Click here to see what Sammy looked like as a Ranger.