McDaniel On International Bonus Pools
A number of teams are expected to break the bank on international talent next July, writes Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.com. Due to international spending restrictions, teams that spend more than 15% above their allotted pool may not ink any international free agents for over $300,000 in the following two signing periods. However, there is growing consensus within the industry that an international draft will be implemented when baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is re-visited after the 2016 season. If a draft is put in place, teams will have only two years to live with the current arrangement.
McDaniel’s sources have suggested that as many as 10 teams may blow past their limit when the next signing period begins on July 2. The Cubs, Blue Jays, and Phillies will “almost definitely” exceed their respective pools. As McDaniel notes, plans will likely be affected by verbal commitments as we get closer to July. Additionally, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels have greatly exceeded their budgets during the current signing period, meaning they will be penalized during the next two periods.
If there truly are only two more years before a draft is implemented, then teams have an interesting “strategic choice.” At least four clubs – possibly five pending the outcome of the Yoan Moncada bidding – will be handicapped. More will spend heavily next summer, making themselves ineligible for big signings in 2016. If enough teams are aggressive, it could be advantageous to wait until 2016 for a spending spree. McDaniel also points out that the penalized teams are mostly those who usually spend a lot on international talent.
Put it all together, and it’s increasingly clear that clubs are unconcerned about the international bonus pool. While small market clubs may be loathe to pay excessive taxes (100% on overages), those theoretically get passed onto the player via a lower signing bonus. In my opinion, if most of the big spenders are excluded from the marketplace in 2016, then we could see some nontraditional sources of big bonuses.
AL East Notes: Duquette, Hundley, Rays
Orioles executive Dan Duquette is a great fit to replace Blue Jays president and CEO Paul Beeston, but if the Jays want him, they should be willing to pay a significant price, ESPN’s Buster Olney writes (subscription required). The right executive can make a huge difference for a franchise, but Duquette is under contract with the Orioles through 2018, so if the Blue Jays want him, the Orioles should ask for top young players (as in one or more of Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Daniel Norris, Jeff Hoffman, Max Pentecost or Richard Urena) in return. Here’s more from the AL East.
- The Orioles had hoped they could re-sign catcher Nick Hundley, but it appears he has found a two-year offer with another team, so he likely won’t be returning, MASNsports’ Roch Kubatko tweets. Hundley, 31, posted a .243/.273/.358 line in 233 plate appearances with the Padres and Orioles last season, but he has a solid defensive reputation. The O’s declined their $5MM option on Hundley in October.
- After trading Wil Myers to San Diego, the Rays remain optimistic about contending in 2015, Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times writes. “While there’s been a lot of change, the talent level at the major-league level remains very high, and we should be a formidable club,” says president of baseball operations Matt Silverman. Silverman adds that although the Rays could continue making moves (Topkin mentions the possibility of a Ben Zobrist trade), they’re not likely to make “seismic changes.”
Blue Jays Claim Juan Oramas
The Blue Jays announced that they have claimed left-hander Juan Oramas off waivers from the Padres. Oramas, 24, has spent all eight of his professional seasons in the Padres’ system.
Oramas, 24, owns a 4.32 ERA with 8.2 K/9 and 4.0 BB/9 across parts of three seasons at Triple-A. He spent last season with the Friars’ Double-A and Triple-A affiliates, posting a combined 4.75 ERA with 7.7 K/9 and 3.4 BB/9 in 134 1/3 innings pitched.
Oramas has appeared among San Diego’s Top 30 prospects, according to Baseball America, in each of the past four offseasons. In last offseason’s scouting report, BA noted that Oramas has the potential for three Major League pitches “with a feel to deploy them for maximum impact,” while also praising the southpaw for hiding the ball well.
The Blue Jays’ 40-man roster now stands at 38.
AL Notes: Hamilton, Cabrera, Toritani
The Angels have discussed potential trades involving Josh Hamilton with the Rangers and Padres this offseason, FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal reports. That might not mean much right now — MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets that the conversation between the Angels and Rangers lasted two minutes, and today’s Wil Myers deal would seem to rule out the possibility of a trade sending Hamilton to San Diego. Rosenthal himself describes recent Hamilton trade talks as merely “exploratory,” and quotes Angels GM Jerry Dipoto asserting his faith in Hamilton. “We do believe in Josh,” says Dipoto. “We’ve seen him hit balls that humans shouldn’t hit. What he does, 99 percent of the players can’t do.” There’s also, obviously, the problem of Hamilton’s trade value being down significantly right now after a mediocre 2014 season. But the possibility of the Angels trading Hamilton (who has a full no-trade clause and is owed $83MM over the next three years) could be worth keeping an eye on in the coming years. Here are more notes from the American League.
- The White Sox are “comfortable” with Melky Cabrera‘s past troubles with PEDs, J.J. Stankevitz of CSNChicago.com writes. “Obviously we’re aware of what happened in the past and no one condones what he did,” says GM Rick Hahn. “But we are talking about an instance where there was a mistake he made and took ownership for and showed honest remorse.” Another PED suspension would cost the White Sox an entire year of Cabrera’s three-year deal, but the White Sox are confident that Cabrera’s PED issues are in the past.
- GM Alex Anthopoulos confirms that the Blue Jays have interest in Japanese infielder Takashi Toritani, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca writes. “We’ve scouted him quite a bit,” Anthopoulos said to Jeff Blair on Sportsnet 590 The FAN. “We have some scouts that like him and he’s someone that we’ve certainly talked about internally. Beyond that I probably wouldn’t get into anything else, but certainly a guy like that would fit.” The 33-year-old Toritani, who hit .303/.406/.415 for Hanshin in 2014, could be an option at second base for the Jays.
Blue Jays Sign Ryan Kalish
The Blue Jays have announced a minor league deal with outfielder Ryan Kalish. The 26-year-old gets an invitation to big league camp this spring.
Kalish spent most of last year with the Cubs after making the roster out of camp, putting up a .248/.295/.347 line in 130 plate appearances at the major league level. He carried a .726 OPS in 319 Triple-A plate appearances on the year. While neither of those batting lines looks to be a huge endorsement for Kalish’s future prospects, it is important to bear in mind that Kalish was working back from serious shoulder and back surgeries and did prove that he could return to a high level of play.
The Jays will presumably consider Kalish in a reserve outfield role, perhaps expecting that he will ultimately serve as minor league depth.
Blue Jays Sign Daric Barton
The Blue Jays have added first baseman Daric Barton on a minor league deal, the team announced via press release. Barton joins a mix of secondary first base and bench bats that includes Justin Smoak and Chris Colabello.
Barton, 29, saw only 64 plate appearances for the Athletics last year, his lowest tally in eight big league seasons. He struggled badly at the plate in the bigs, though his numbers at Triple-A (.261/.371/.411 over 375 plate appearances) were better. Since a big 2010 season as a regular, Barton has managed only a .216/.323/.284 slash over 600 trips to the plate at the MLB level.
AL East Notes: Red Sox, Rasmus, Craig, Blue Jays
With research revealing the strike zone has dropped by the diameter of a baseball over the last few years, the Red Sox have targeted pitchers and hitters who can control that area of the plate, John Tomase of the Boston Herald writes. Third baseman Pablo Sandoval is one of the best lowball hitters in the game. Hanley Ramirez, meanwhile, is a lifetime .346 hitter in the lower third of the zone. On the pitching side of the equation, Wade Miley, Rick Porcello, and Justin Masterson are all above average in ground ball/fly ball ratio, with Masterson (1.33) standing as one of the most extreme examples in the game.
Elsewhere out of the American League East:
- The Orioles are being pushed to take Colby Rasmus on a one-year deal, tweets Peter Gammons of GammonsDaily.com. Earlier today, we learned the Cubs have met recently with Rasmus and are one of several teams to show interest in the free agent center fielder.
- MLB.com’s Richard Justice profiles Red Sox first baseman/outfielder Allen Craig as an overlooked trade candidate, noting the 30-year-old, who has been hobbled by foot injuries the last two years, is a driven and serious man obsessed with putting his career back on track. The Marlins and Brewers have been linked to Craig so far this offseason.
- With Melky Cabrera coming to terms with the White Sox, the Blue Jays will receive a compensatory pick after the first round, lessening the blow of forfeiting the 18th overall selection for signing Russell Martin, tweets Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.
Blue Jays Interested In Rizzo To Replace Beeston
6:35pm: Rizzo says the Jays have not contacted him and that he remains focused on his job with the Nationals, Wagner tweets.
2:51pm: The Blue Jays are interested in Nationals GM and president of baseball operations Mike Rizzo to replace president and CEO Paul Beeston, ESPN’s Jerry Crasnick reports. The Jays have also been connected to Terry Ryan of the Twins, Kenny Williams of the White Sox and Dan Duquette of the Orioles to fill the position, although all have either been denied permission to interview for the job or have said they’re not interested. What will happen with Beeston isn’t yet entirely clear, with one report indicating that Beeston would remain on the job through 2015.
Rizzo’s level of interest, if any, in the Blue Jays job is unclear, and the Washington Post’s James Wagner tweets that the Nationals haven’t been contacted regarding Rizzo’s potential candidacy. Rizzo signed a new long-term deal with the Nationals in August 2013, which is when he was promoted to president of baseball operations.
Rizzo took over the Nationals’ GM job after Jim Bowden’s departure in 2009. Since then, the Nationals have made the playoffs twice, losing in the NLDS in both 2012 and 2014. He was named the BBWAA’s Executive of the Year following the 2012 season.
Minor Moves: Roe, Wilson, Brown, Velez, Lopez, Gindl, Fox, Sizemore
Here are the day’s minor moves:
- The Orioles have agreed to a minor league pact with righty Chaz Roe, MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes reports on Twitter. The 28-year-old reliever has only seen 24 1/3 innings at the big league level, but has posted strong numbers in the upper minors over the past two seasons, including attractive K/BB rates.
- The Rays have announced the signing of three players to minor league deals with Spring Training invites, via Roger Mooney of the Tampa Tribune (Twitter link). Catcher Bobby Wilson, outfielder Corey Brown, and utilityman Eugenio Velez will be joining the Tampa organization. Wilson has not seen much MLB time since serving as a backup with the Angels, and the same holds of Velez, who was a semi-regular with the Giants five years back. Brown, 29, spent most of last year at Triple-A in the Red Sox system.
- Likewise, the Blue Jays have added a trio of minor league contracts that include spring invites, per Shi Davidi of Sportsnet.ca (via Twitter). Righty Wilton Lopez, outfielder Caleb Gindl, and corner infielder Jake Fox will take a shot at making the Toronto roster. Lopez, 31, was a pen mainstay for the Astros and then the Rockies before suffering through a rough 2014 in Colorado. Gindl, just 26, showed some promise in 2013 with the Brewers but struggled last year at Triple-A and in a brief big league stint. And the 32-year-old Fox has not reached the bigs since 2011, but launched 38 home runs in the upper minors last year with the Phillies.
- The Marlins have added outfielder Scott Sizemore on a minor league deal, Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com tweets (a deal that Chris Cotillo of SB Nation recently said was in the works). Sizemore, 29, has seen action in parts of four MLB seasons, and owns a useful .240/.327/.383 slash with 14 home runs over 614 career plate appearances.
AL Notes: Melky, Jays, Red Sox, Masterson
With the Winter Meetings in the books, be sure to check out this interesting piece from Joe Lemire for Medium.com regarding the change wrought on the process by changes in communication technology. Texting has replaced in-person dealmaking and reporting, writes Lemire, which in some ways undermines the purpose of teams gathering in one place. Of course, as we found out this week, the annual meet-up is still capable of supporting a hotbed of transactional movement.
Here’s the latest from the American League:
- The Mariners have made free agent outfielder Melky Cabrera a three-year offer, Enrique Rojas of ESPNDeportes.com reports (Spanish language link). Cabrera is looking for at least one more guaranteed year, says Rojas. This news reflects a recent report from Bob Dutton of the Tacoma News Tribune, who suggested that the sides were at something of a standoff along those lines.
- The Blue Jays are looking at the free agent market for a second baseman but are not interested in guaranteeing more than three years, Ben Nicholson-Smith of Sportsnet.ca reports on Twitter. “You won’t see any four or five-year deals,” said GM Alex Anthopoulos.
- Michael Silverman of the Boston Herald (Twitter link) rejects the idea that the Red Sox made a mistake by not landing Jon Lester. That assessment, says Silverman, will depend upon whether the team finds a suitable alternative.
- Justin Masterson says that the Rangers were one of several claims to make him an offer before he signed with the Red Sox, the Herald’s Scott Lauber reports on Twitter. That offer was for $6MM in guaranteed money, WEEI.com’s Rob Bradford tweets.