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Latest On Shohei Otani

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2:23pm: There’s a “tentative understanding” in place simply to extend the prior posting regime for another year, Sherman reports. The MLBPA has yet to weigh in on the subject, though, and there’s still not a final deal in place.

1:31pm: In the wake of Shohei Otani’s decision to hire a MLBPA-certified player representative, it seems that there’ll be a renewed push to figure out a way to resolve the impasse that has threatened to derail his planned move to the majors. Joel Sherman of the New York Post reports that there’s a sense that the move will help facilitate an agreement that all involved will approve.

Indeed, Otani’s reps at CAA are scheduled to “meet soon” with the player’s association to attempt to get on the same page in an effort to sort things out, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi tweets. That’s just the first step here, of course, as Otani and the MLBPA will still need to engage with Major League Baseball and Nippon Professional Baseball — the two entities that are primarily negotiating a new system governing inter-league player transfers.

The difficulties here are tied to two factors: first, MLB’s rules capping international bonuses on certain younger international free agents; and second, the expiration of the prior posting system. There was a time when Otani’s current team, the Nippon Ham Fighters, might have auctioned Otani’s negotiating rights for something approaching or even exceeding nine figures while Otani might have commanded a guarantee of as much or more. Under the just-expired transfer system, the Fighters would at least have stood to receive the maximum allowable $20MM fee. But that’s no longer how things work.

The transfer rules currently under contemplation would do away with the (up-to) $20MM flat-fee approach in favor of one that would allow the NPB team to earn a percentage of the bonus the posted player negotiates. If Otani was free to seek his market value, that wouldn’t likely pose a problem. But his earnings are now severely limited; while he is evidently at peace with that, his would-be former team is obviously not enamored of the possibility of losing its best player for what would be relative peanuts.

Under MLB’s current international rules, MLB clubs can’t go past their international spending pools (as supplemented via trade) to sign Otani. Those are even more limited than might be realized, though, due to teams’ preexisting commitments with young international players. (This was already known, of course, though the details remained fuzzy.)

According to a report from the Associated Press, only six teams even have enough uncommitted pool space to offer Otani seven figures. The Rangers ($3.535MM), Yankees ($3.25MM), and Twins ($3.245MM) easily lead the way, with the Pirates ($2.2MM+), Marlins ($1.74MM), and Mariners ($1.57MM+) also have some money to spend — or, perhaps, to trade to a would-be Otani suitor. For someone who is expected to be an immediate and significant contributor at the major-league level, that’s a pittance no matter the precise amount. Of course, he’ll also have a chance to make significant income off the field and through a future extension or trip through arbitration.

Quick Hits: Utley, Hutchison, Int’l Market

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It was on this day in 1941 that Stan Musial played in his first Major League game, beginning what turned into a legendary 22-year career.  It could be said that the Cardinals legend was “The Man” from day one, going 2-for-4 in his first game and posting an 1.023 OPS over his first 49 plate appearances in the bigs.  That didn’t end up being too far off from the .331/.417/.559 slash line that Musial contributed over his entire career, cementing his place as one of baseball’s all-time greats.  Here’s some notes from around the league…

  • Chase Utley still enjoys playing but is realistic about the fact that his career is approaching its end, the veteran tells Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register.  Utley said he has been approaching his career on a year-to-year basis, and acknowledging that while he still has the desire to play, “I know the market nowadays isn’t that friendly to older players.  I guess we’ll have to wait and see.  But I feel personally there’s still plenty of ways I can contribute.”  Utley turns 39 in December, and he entered the day with a .234/.324/.406 slash line in 328 PA for the Dodgers, which includes an .806 OPS in 162 PA at Dodger Stadium.  While his days as an everyday player are over, Utley has been regarded as a major behind-the-scenes contributor, with teammates and coaches praising his clubhouse leadership.
  • The Pirates’ decision to outright Drew Hutchison was simply due to a pitching surplus, GM Neal Huntington told Stephen J. Nesbitt of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette and other media.  “It was more things beyond Drew’s control.  We traded for him with the idea that he was a controllable, young starter that could fill a rotation spot for years to come,” Huntington said.  “We just also decided this year that the growth and development of our guys put them ahead of him….we felt like we had guys that we wanted to give the innings to at the Major League level ahead of him.  Time will tell if that was the right call.”  Huntington praised Hutchison and said that cutting ties with him now will give the young righty more time to find another team, rather than waiting until December to be non-tendered.
  • Thanks to the strict bonus money cap on international signings in the new collective bargaining agreement, teams are already lining up agreements with international players at younger and younger ages, Phil Miller of the Minneapolis Star Tribune reports.  While none of these agreements are technically binding at this point, “teams generally are reluctant to ’raid’ each other’s committed players,” Miller writes, so some deals are being struck years in advance of when these players become eligible to be signed.  “Teams are agreeing with players for 2020 now, that’s how far out it is,” Twins VP of player personnel Mike Radcliff said. “Almost all of the best guys for next [July] are locked up already and off the market….It feels like we spend almost as much time trying to find out who’s still available and who’s not as we do going to scout players.  And it’s impossible to know what a 13-year-old is going to turn into.  Did you know what you would be when you were 13?”

Quick Hits: Ross, D’Backs, Black, Int’l Draft, Cubs

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David Ross’ pursuit of another World Series ring in his final season was one of the many great subplots of the Cubs’ championship run, and now the veteran catcher is adjusting to retirement, MLB.com’s Carrie Muskat writes.  “There hasn’t been a big lull for me.  I ended it the best way I could,” Ross said.  “It’s a storybook and a dream.  I was saying to my wife, ’This offseason’ — and she said, ’It’s no more the offseason; this is life.’”  The widely-respected Ross has often been cited as a future manager or coach, and while he’ll be meeting with Theo Epstein after Thanksgiving to discuss a possible future role with the team, Ross is looking forward to more well-deserved time with his family.  Here’s some more from around the majors as we start a new week…

  • The Diamondbacks won’t face any payroll limitations in Mike Hazen’s first offseason as the team’s general manager, club president/CEO Derrick Hall tells Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic.  “It’ll become a challenge in the future,” Hall said. “We can’t have too many high-priced players on the roster at the same time in this market.  You just can’t.  At some point we’re going to have difficult decisions to make.  But this year it’s not critical.  That’s a good spot to be in as a new GM.  (Hazen is) not looking at what he has committed and looking at having to move pieces to bring in others.  It gives him time to breathe and look and make his own assessments.”  While Hazen may not be required to make big payroll cuts, however, he may not have much spending room available if the D’Backs aren’t raising payroll.
  • New Rockies manager Bud Black is certain that he can avoid the clash of personalities that soured the relationship between GM Jeff Bridich and former manager Walt Weiss, Jeff Saunders of the Denver Post writes.  Black’s ability to communicate and learn throughout every stage of his playing and post-playing career is illustrated in this piece from MLB.com’s Thomas Harding, who explores some of the many relationships Black has made throughout his many decades in baseball.
  • Commissioner Rob Manfred has stated that competitive balance and transparency are the league’s priorities in pushing for an international talent draft, though Baseball America’s Ben Badler feels neither of these issues will be helped (and in fact could be worsened) by further limiting contracts for international players within a draft framework.  The league’s real priority, Badler argues, is limiting the amount of bonus money given to international players.
  • How can the Cubs best position themselves for a repeat in 2017?  MLB.com’s Phil Rogers has a few suggestions, including re-signing Dexter Fowler, acquiring Sean Doolittle (if healthy) from the A’s, and packaging some of the club’s top prospects together to trade for a front-of-the-rotation starter.

Latest U.S. Rule Change On Cuba May Pave Way For Free Agents

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As the United States continues to unroll policy changes with regard to interactions between American and Cuban businesses and citizens, the latest move could have profound implications for the way that the island’s famed baseball players make their way to MLB. As Ben Strauss of the New York Times explains, the new rules — which start today — it will be permissible for major league teams (like any other employer) to hire Cuban citizens.

Under the existing scheme, Cuban players have been forced to endure a lengthy and often dangerous process not only to make it out of Cuba, but to become eligible to sign as free agents. While there are still many logistical and policy-related matters to be worked through before there is any kind of efficient exchange of talent between Cuba and the majors, yesterday’s announcement seems to remove a significant barrier from the process.

Indeed, the biggest immediate effect may be on Cubans who have already left the island and are currently waiting to reach free agency — which has previously required the establishment of residence in a third country in circumstances ripe for exploitation. In theory, those players — among them, Cuban legend Yulieski Gurriel, his brother Lourdes Gurriel, and veteran second baseman Jose Miguel Fernandez — can legally sign right now, so long as they are otherwise able to gain legal entry and work authorization, as would any other international player.

It’s likely, of course, that clubs will await some confirmation before proceeding; if nothing else, pursuant to baseball’s own rules, those players will still need to be declared free agents. Dan Halem, MLB’s chief legal officer, tells Strauss that the league is still studying the rules, and there could be a need for administrative changes before the flow of talent opens. Regardless of precisely how long it takes for the impact of the rule change to be felt, it holds out the promise of eliminating some of the worst byproducts of the convoluted prior system.

Standing alone, though, the new rules do not eliminate the incentive for defection for those ballplayers that remain in Cuba — though, presumably, they’d be able to defect directly to the United States or at least do so much more quickly. Working out a process for players still in Cuba, of course, will require more negotiation and the participation by the Cuban government. But with goodwill exchanges between MLB and Cuba seemingly proceeding nicely, it isn’t hard to imagine the parties in interest finding a way forward.

International Notes: Gurriels, Lazarito, Manfred, Dodgers

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The Gurriel brothers’ defection from Cuba surprised many pundits, though as Baseball America’s Ben Badler writes, there had been hints over the last year that something was afoot with the duo, particularly Yulieski Gurriel.  The elder brother hasn’t always been known for playing hard, but Yulieski had been noticeably hustling more over the past year, perhaps in a deliberate effort to correct this perception in the eyes of MLB scouts.  Yulieski also passed on a lucrative offer to play in Japan for the rather curious reason of wanting to rehab a hamstring injury, which raised some eyebrows.  Badler notes that in the wake of the Gurriels’ departure, the Dominican government is cracking down on Cuban players in the country, with a couple of prospects already sent back to Cuba and others leaving the Dominican to establish residency in the Bahamas.  Cubans still remaining in the Dominican Republic are now playing on well-maintained but secretive baseball diamonds, just adding to the overall clandestine atmosphere.

Here’s more recent news from around the international market…

  • The shocking circumstances behind Charles Hairston and Agency39 dropping their representation of Lazaro “Lazarito” Armenteros is still the talk of the international scouting world, and Hairston shared more details with MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez.  The mysterious “buscon” (or “investor” as he’s known in Sanchez’s piece) allegedly threatened Hairston ten days ago,  and had also been working behind Agency39’s back to negotiate with teams and other agencies to arrange new representation for Armenteros.  Agency39 was still working on Lazarito’s behalf as late as noon yesterday.
  • Commissioner Rob Manfred reiterated his support for an international talent draft when speaking to reporters (including Jesse Sanchez) on Monday, indicating that changes to the international system will be a significant topic in upcoming collective bargaining negotiations with the players’ union.  These talks will be particularly interesting since the desire for altering international signing rules may vary greatly from team to team.  “If you ask the teams that have been able to spend internationally, they would be happy with how [the system] is,” Athletics GM David Forst said. “There are also some teams that feel you lose some of the scouting side of it if you have the [international draft].  You lose the ability to unearth players.  But with the information that is out there, I’m not sure that happens.”
  • Twenty-five teams attended a showcase yesterday for Cuban outfielder Yadiel Hernandez and infielders Yanio Perez and Alejandro Rivero, MLB.com’s Jesse Sanchez tweets.  Hernandez, who defected last summer, is the most highly-regarded of the trio and is old enough (28) to not be subject to the international pool limits.
  • The Dodgers have spent over $200MM on nine Cuban players over the last four years, a major investment that Bill Plunkett of the Orange County Register notes that thus far yielded relatively little return.  Yasiel Puig has delivered both all-world talent and controversy in his time with the team and Hector Olivera was flipped to the Braves, while Erisbel Arruebarrena and Alex Guerrero are now afterthoughts.  “I think like any part of the talent universe there’s going to be mixed results,” said senior baseball operations VP Josh Byrnes, who also noted that the Dodgers’ big investment is still less than it would’ve cost for a similar outlay on free agent talent.  The club obviously still expects much from highly-regarded prospects still in the system, including the recently-signed Yaisel Sierra.

Quick Hits: Zimmer, Boras, Draft, Dozier

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The Rays will honor the late Don Zimmer by announcing that his #66 jersey will be retired in a ceremony on Opening Day.  Zimmer only wore #66 for one season during his 11 years as a senior advisor for the Rays, as he increased his uniform number by one every season to reflect how many years he had spent in baseball.  The beloved long-time coach, manager and player passed away last June.

  • Using Max Scherzer’s signing with the Nationals as an example, Scott Boras discusses how he markets (though the agent dislikes that term) and presents his major free agent clients in an interview with Bloomberg’s Joshua Green.  Boras and his staff identify which teams are ideal fits for his clients and then specifically tailors each pitch to relate to each team owner during negotiations.  With Scherzer, Boras had four lengthy meetings with Nats owner Ted Lerner highlighting how Scherzer would create more value to the franchise both baseball-wise and from a business perspective.
  • MLB.com’s Jim Callis and Jonathan Mayo debate which club has had the best farm system of the last five years.  Callis chose the Nationals since they’ve found more superstar talent, while Mayo picked the Cardinals due to their system’s overall depth.
  • The possibility of an international draft has been a topic of discussion throughout baseball lately, with proponents like commissioner Rob Manfred advocating a “single modality of entry” to allow consistency in the way MLB teams sign amateurs from various parts of the world.  Flipping the idea around, however, Rob Neyer of FOX Sports suggests that MLB could instead ensure consistency by abolishing the amateur draft.  Instead of a draft, MLB could allow teams to spend a predetermined amount on amateur players (be they domestic or international) each year. Neyer favors doing so in such a way that would stop baseball from penalizing winning by having the top teams take lower draft picks.  The idea could also be easily modified so that teams with the worst records would be able to spend more money.  In either case, Neyer believes his system would encourage all teams to hunt for talent both at home and abroad.
  • It’s becoming rare to see pre-arbitration players sign extensions that don’t cover at least one free agent year, yet Brian Dozier’s new contract with the Twins is such a deal, Fangraphs’ Craig Edwards writes in his analysis of the extension.  Edwards thinks more players could possibly pursue “a safe deal” like Dozier’s if they “place an emphasis on getting to free agency.”
  • Orlando Hudson is in the Diamondbacks’ camp to work with the infield, though he plans to be back on a diamond in more than an instructor role, MLB.com’s Steve Gilbert reports (via Twitter).  Hudson hopes to play winter ball and attempt a Major League comeback for the 2016 season.  The 37-year-old former Gold Glove second baseman last played in the bigs in 2012 and had seemingly hung up his spikes following brief stints in the Mexican and Dominican winter leagues in 2013.

Pitcher Notes: Latos, Gutierrez, Alvares, Qualls

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Mat Latos’ fascinating interview with FOX Sports’ Ken Rosenthal offers an unusually honest look at transactions, and team machinations in general, from the perspective of a player. Latos says he received assurances from the Padres that they wouldn’t trade him, and then they traded him eight days later and didn’t tell him. “I woke up, had like 50 text messages,” Latos says. “I called my agent. He said, ’(GM) Josh Byrnes couldn’t get ahold of you.’ I had zero missed calls from him. I had to call him. Maybe he had the wrong number.” He speaks of “great times” in the Reds organization and says he’s satisfied to be with the Marlins, but questions the Reds for pushing him too aggressively as he returned from injury last year, and expresses lingering bitterness at going through the arbitration process with Miami. “You see it as a business,” he says. “You kind of see how much of a pawn you really are.” Here are more notes on pitchers.

  • Cuban pitchers Vladimir Gutierrez and Yadier Alvares won’t be able to sign until July 2, Ben Badler of Baseball America writes. Any international free agent born later than September 1, 1995 must register with Major League Baseball to be able to sign, and Gutierrez and Alvares aren’t registered. (The rule is designed to help MLB keep track of young international free agents and prevent identity fraud, although Badler notes that the rule is tough on Cuban players, who can’t register while they’re in Cuba. The rule does not apply to Yoan Moncada, who was born in May 1995.) The two pitchers must register by May 15 to sign beginning in July. Gutierrez won Serie Nacional’s 2013-14 Rookie of the Year award, and Alvares is an interesting young pitcher who can throw 97 MPH.
  • Veteran reliever Chad Qualls is happy about the talent the Astros have added this winter, Brian McTaggart of MLB.com writes. “They’re going to contribute a lot to the back end of the bullpen,” says Qualls, referring to Pat Neshek and Luke Gregerson. “The trades and the signings we made are spot on for our offense,” he adds. Qualls’ perspective on the Astros is different than most, since he spent the first four seasons of his career with the team. In two of those (2004 and 2005), they were an NL powerhouse, advancing to the World Series in ’05. Since then, Qualls has moved around the country, playing for the Diamondbacks, Rays, Padres, Phillies, Yankees, Pirates and Marlins while the Astros eventually became the worst team in the Majors. Now he’s back with them as they’re beginning to show signs of reemerging.

McDaniel On International Bonus Pools

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A number of teams are expected to break the bank on international talent next July, writes Kiley McDaniel of FanGraphs.com. Due to international spending restrictions, teams that spend more than 15% above their allotted pool may not ink any international free agents for over $300,000 in the following two signing periods. However, there is growing consensus within the industry that an international draft will be implemented when baseball’s Collective Bargaining Agreement is re-visited after the 2016 season. If a draft is put in place, teams will have only two years to live with the current arrangement.

McDaniel’s sources have suggested that as many as 10 teams may blow past their limit when the next signing period begins on July 2. The Cubs, Blue Jays, and Phillies will “almost definitely” exceed their respective pools. As McDaniel notes, plans will likely be affected by verbal commitments as we get closer to July. Additionally, the Yankees, Red Sox, Rays, and Angels have greatly exceeded their budgets during the current signing period, meaning they will be penalized during the next two periods.

If there truly are only two more years before a draft is implemented, then teams have an interesting “strategic choice.” At least four clubs – possibly five pending the outcome of the Yoan Moncada bidding – will be handicapped. More will spend heavily next summer, making themselves ineligible for big signings in 2016. If enough teams are aggressive, it could be advantageous to wait until 2016 for a spending spree. McDaniel also points out that the penalized teams are mostly those who usually spend a lot on international talent.

Put it all together, and it’s increasingly clear that clubs are unconcerned about the international bonus pool. While small market clubs may be loathe to pay excessive taxes (100% on overages), those theoretically get passed onto the player via a lower signing bonus. In my opinion, if most of the big spenders are excluded from the marketplace in 2016, then we could see some nontraditional sources of big bonuses.

International Moves: Dodgers, Liberato, Villatoro

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We’ll keep track of the day’s international signings here…

  • The Dodgers announced the signings of four 17-year-olds from the Dominican Republic (via Twitter): outfielders Deivy Castillo and Ariel Sandoval, shortstop Ravel Hernandez, and right-hander Miguel Urena. Dylan Hernandez of the L.A. Times tweeted the age and positions of each player.
  • The Mariners signed Luis Liberato, a 17-year-old outfielder from the Dominican Republic, Ben Badler of Baseball America reports. Liberato obtains a $140K bonus. The 6'1" teenager has gap power with a solid swing and could stay in center field or move to right, according to Badler.
  • The Blue Jays signed 18-year-old right-hander Denis Villatoro to a five-year contract, Saúl Carranza of the Honduran newspaper Diez reported over the weekend (translation via MLBTR's Nick Collias). It's a five-year deal, according to La Tribuna. Bob Elliott of the Toronto Sun notes that it's worth $20K (Twitter link). Villatoro, who worked out for the Blue Jays before signing, said he's "very happy" to have agreed to terms with Toronto, Carranza reports. His fastball reaches 93 mph, and he also drew interest from the Orioles, Yankees, Mets, Astros, Giants and Pirates.

International Notes: Blue Jays, Red Sox, Twins

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A new set of rules and restrictions for the international prospect market will take effect less than two weeks from now, on July 2. Each team will be working with an annual budget of $2.9MM for international players starting next month. Here are the latest rumblings regarding the international prospect market, via Ben Badler of Baseball America:

  • The Blue Jays had seemed to be in the lead for Venezuelan right-hander Jose Mujica, but may not be as closely linked to him as expected, Badler writes. The Red Sox and Diamondbacks have also been linked to the 15-year-old Mujica, who's considered by many scouts to be the top pitching prospect available in Latin America. 
  • The Blue Jays are still favored to sign 16-year-old Venezuelan Franklin Barreto, according to Badler. Some teams consider Barreto the top available prospect, but he will likely move from shortstop to another position.
  • The Red Sox, Padres and Royals have been mentioned as possible teams of interest on Venezuelan left-hander Jose Castillo, Badler writes. Some view the Dodgers and Orioles as sleepers for Castillo, who’s expected to obtain a generous bonus.
  • The Twins are showing heavy interest in Dominican shortstop Amaurys Minier, according to Badler. The 16-year-old switch-hitter is expected to become one of the highest-paid Dominican prospects.
  • Some believe the Pirates are in on Dominican third baseman Julio de la Cruz.

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