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Rosenthal’s Latest

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Ken Rosenthal has a new column up.  A summary appears below.

  • Rosenthal thinks the Tigers are unlikely to acquire Eric Gagne or Akinori Otsuka, perhaps preferring to look at internal options.  That’s a shame, as I think they really need to add someone.
  • The White Sox won’t be granting a 72 hour negotiating window if they trade Mark Buehrle.  Strictly a rental.  That could limit the market for him, but Kenny Williams will come up with at least one quality prospect.
  • The Dodgers don’t seem likely to trade for Adam Dunn or Jermaine Dye, but could go after Mark Teixeira.  Dye seems most likely to end up in the NL West somehow, but only if he is healthy and hitting.
  • Possible Dontrelle Willis suitors: the Rockies or Diamondbacks.  They’ve got the young trading chips, and the need in the present day.  The Rox could offer Aaron Cook plus prospects, and the D’Backs could try Livan Hernandez and youngsters.  If the D’Backs dare offer up Justin Upton, the Marlins would jump.  Of course, D-Train needs to be healthy and the Marlins would need to fall out of contention.
  • Barry Bonds’s agent really doesn’t see a trade happening.  Well, no one does, but it’s fun to speculate.  Rosenthal thinks only the Yankees could accomodate him.
  • Aside from the Pirates and Padres, the Astros, Cardinals, and Rangers could go after Milton Bradley. 
  • Rosenthal has a GM source who thinks the Reds could wait until this winter, exercise Adam Dunn’s $13MM option for ’08, and then trade him.  Dunn, however, would gain no-trade protection until June 15, 2008 and then be able to block 10 teams thereafter.
  • Troy Glaus isn’t going anywhere.  Even if the Jays wanted to trade him, his contract is prohibitive.
  • The Indians or Rockies could trade for Octavio Dotel for bullpen depth.  Dotel is developing into a fine trading chip for Dayton Moore, just as planned.  The Tribe has had interest in Dotel in past offseasons. 

Rosenthal’s Latest Video

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Ken Rosenthal has a new video up at FOXSports.com for your viewing pleasure.  My summary:

  • As you know, Eric Gagne and Akinori Otsuka are drawing strong interest across baseball.  The only team named by Rosenthal is the Yankees, and in a roundabout way.  He simply said that the Rangers have been scouting the Yanks. 
  • Both the Dodgers and Angels would love to add a power-hitting third baseman.  The problem is, there’s not much about there.  Rosenthal says Troy Glaus, Mike Lowell, and Miguel Cabrera are all currently unavailable.  One who might become available and could play third is Miguel Tejada.  My own speculation on some possible second-tier trade candidates at third base (some long shots included): Jose Bautista, Mark Reynolds, Chad Tracy, Ty Wigginton, Melvin Mora, and Wilson Betemit. 
  • Michael Barrett could be on his way out of Chicago, mostly because of his defense.  Rosenthal names the Marlins and Rockies as interested parties.

Rosenthal’s Latest

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The authority on all trade rumors, Ken Rosenthal has spoken.  Let’s review.

  • As we have heard before, the Dodgers like Adam Dunn.  We’ve also discussed the fact that there’s not a clear place to put him.  Whether you go with first base or left field, a veteran must move.  The Padres like Dunn as well but talks have yet to occur.  The Angels may have liked him in the past but they don’t seem likely at this point.  And the Twins?  They just won’t break the bank for him unfortunately.
  • With Michael Barrett having issues with 40% of the Cubs’ rotation, the Cubs could look to trade him.  Even though he’s a top offensive catcher, his impending free agency might prevent any strong return.  Plus, the Cubs would have to go with a Henry Blanco/Koyie Hill tandem.  A more likely scenario is that the Cubs will let Barrett walk after the season.
  • Finally some clarity on Eric Gagne’s limited no-trade protection.  Rosenthal reveals that he can veto trades to 12 teams.  The Phillies and Indians are again mentioned as suitors.  Rosenthal thinks Mark Teixeira could generate a lot of talk but no action at the trading deadline.  Kind of like Alfonso Soriano or A.J. Burnett before him.
  • The asking price for Brad Lidge, supposedly: a premium young catcher and promising young pitcher.  Lidge will probably earn $8MM next year before hitting free agency.  The Astros should be happy with a young catcher or a young pitcher, not both.  I’d mention Salty here but I think he is worth much more than Lidge.  Rosenthal says the Astros could move another bullpen arm like Wheeler or Qualls to get the bat they need. 
  • Could the Devil Rays simply retain Al Reyes and Carlos Pena?  Both players could be valuable contributors to the 2008 club.  I like the idea of keeping Reyes around for next year, but I think Pena has peaked.
  • Noah Lowry would get the attention of the Braves or Cardinals, but the Giants are unlikely to move him.
  • The Phils are likely to pass on Tomo Ohka despite their need for pitching.

Cards Hunting For Starters

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According to Cardinals GM Walt Jocketty, there’s just nothing out there on the starting pitching market.  No decent starters to acquire.  The Cardinals are doing OK in second place, 5.5 games behind the Brewers.  They still have a fine chance of sneaking into the rotation, but need to upgrade their patchwork rotation.  St. Louis starters have combined for a 5.25 ERA, easily the worst in the league.  Even worse than the Nationals.

Joe Strauss’s article mentions some mild interest in Tomo Ohka, who was designated for assignment yesterday by the Blue Jays.  The Cardinals talked to Ohka’s agent last December but couldn’t get a deal done.

Jocketty is, of course, exaggerating in saying nothing’s available.  Here are some names for you: Wade Miller, Josh Fogg, Mike Maroth, Odalis Perez, Brett Tomko, Jon Lieber, John Thomson, Tony Armas.  Now, if you’re talking good starters, well, that always requires a decent bounty.  Mark Buehrle should become available soon, and the Marlins would probably listen on Dontrelle Willis.  A mid-tier guy who could work is Paul Byrd.  Any other ideas for the Redbirds?

Bedard To Join Jays In 2010?

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Blue Jays play-by-play guy Jamie Campbell has a blog, and he’s got an interesting rumor up today.  Campbell speaks of a "prominent member of the Orioles organization" telling him to expect Erik Bedard in a Blue Jays uniform for the 2010 season.

Campbell points out Bedard’s Canadian roots and the Orioles’ inability to sign him long-term as factors.  He sees a possible rotation of Roy Halladay, A.J. Burnett, Bedard, and two youngsters in 2010.

Campbell notes that Burnett can opt out of his contract after the 2008 season.  He’d be walking away from three years and $36MM.  If he stays relatively healthy and keeps his ERA in the low 4s, you can bet he’ll top 3/36.

 

Blue Jays To Offer Up Towers, Ohka

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Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi has told teams that starters Josh Towers and Tomo Ohka are available, according to the Toronto Sun.  The Jays will pick up some salary, too. The Sun’s Bob Elliott dogs Ricciardi for not giving Jeff Suppan the four year, $42MM he got from Milwaukee.  I think Ricciardi made the right decision there – instead of owing Suppan $12.5MM in 2010, he can already get off the hook for Ohka and John Thomson.  Suppan wouldn’t have a 2.54 ERA right now had he been pitching in the AL East.   

Aside from the 1-2 punch of Halladay and Burnett, the Jays will go young in the rotation.  They’ve got nothing to lose with such a strategy, and maybe the kids will be primed to succeed in ’08.

Towers, 30, earns $2.9MM this season.  However, he won’t be a free agent until after the 2009 season, by my count.  He has pinpoint control and pitches to contact.  The approach has worked when he’s managed to keep the hits per nine innings under 11.  It’s failed miserably otherwise.  Oddly, PECOTA sees Ohka as Towers’ #2 comparable.  Check out some other names in his top fifteen comps: John Burkett, Lew Burdette, Early Winn, and Brad Radke.  There are certainly scenarios under which Towers has a successful big league career.  They probably involve the National League.

Ohka, 31, earns $1.5MM this year with additional incentives for games started.  I wrote an extensive profile on him here.  Two things to know about Ohka: he’s pitching with a strained rotator cuff, and he’s got a fiery personality (to put it lightly).  Since he signed late, many teams are on record having interest in Ohka last winter: the Cardinals, Mariners, Nationals, Red Sox, Diamondbacks, Pirates, and Mets.  He was actually trying for a three-year deal. 

Time For Blue Jays To Think About ’08?

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With about 20% of the season in the books, the Blue Jays are last in the AL East and seven games under .500.  Baseball Prospectus’s Postseason Odds report says they have an 11.29% chance of reaching the playoffs.  Looking at their runs scored and allowed, they’re not as bad as their record looks – BP’s report says the Jays have a much better chance of reaching than the Devil Rays (2.48% despite a better record).

Even without all these fancy reports, we can see that Toronto’s playoff chances are slim.  Sure, their offense has been pretty good, and they’re still waiting for Frank Thomas and Adam Lind to come around.  But the Jays are carrying around a 4.90 team ERA; their rotation has been predictably bad.  Chacin, Towers, Zambrano, Ohka.  No one really expected those guys to post sub-5 ERAs.  Probably not even J.P. Ricciardi.

Dustin McGowan is here to stay, and after a few months in the rotation he should start pitching like a solid #3.  And the Jays have a little bit of interest in adding Jason Davis, who could help in the rotation or bullpen.   But Ricciardi might be better suited to play for 2008, maybe sign a more legitimate starting pitcher in the 2007-08 offseason.  Jeff Blair of the Globe and Mail can see a bit of an overhaul in coming months, specifically naming Troy Glaus as a trade candidate.

Glaus can pretty much be counted on for a .360 OBP and .520 SLG, though it seems like he’s older than 30.  This year it’s been his shoulder, Achilles, and hamstring.  Despite the aches and pains, Glaus has played in about 150 games in each of the last two seasons.  He makes $10.75MM this year and $12.75MM in ’08.  He was also awarded an $11.25MM player option when he was traded to the Blue Jays, and has a full no-trade too.  In other words, Glaus is calling all the shots. 

Perhaps the Angels would want Glaus back; they have a slew of third basemen on their radar.  The Phillies are another club lacking at the hot corner.  The Indians, Reds, or Padres might be interested as well, assuming the contract can be worked out. 

Ringolsby On Lidge, Otsuka, And More

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Esteemed Denver Post writer Tracy Ringolsby drops a few trade rumors on us in this morning’s column.

  • Ringolsby writes that the Padres have some rainy-day money saved up to be used specifically for one of three players, if they are available and the team is contending.  The players are future free agents Ichiro Suzuki, Andruw Jones, and Torii Hunter.  I’m not sure how Mike Cameron would feel about that, and whether it would affect his contract negotiations.  Hopefully he wouldn’t mind moving to a corner.
  • Should Eric Gagne prove himself healthy and reliable (a long shot), the Red Sox, Indians, and Marlins have interest in acquiring Akinori Otsuka.  In my opinion the Phillies might want in on that too.  The Mets and Diamondbacks have expressed interest in the past.  I’m a bit skeptical that the Marlins would take on another $3MM reliever after the Jorge Julio debacle.
  • The same three teams Ringolsby mentioned for Otsuka would have interest in Brad Lidge if available.  Also, some major connections between Lidge and the Rockies are described.  And Buster Olney mentions the Blue Jays as another possibility in his blog today. 
  • Ringolsby quotes Joe Nathan as saying his agents have had positive initial talks with the Twins.  Yesterday, Jon Heyman of SI.com had a source indicating that talks with Nathan had slowed.

Let’s Make A Deal: Reed Johnson

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Reed Johnson.  He’s a 30 year-old outfielder who can play all three positions.  He posted a .391 OBP as the Jays’ leadoff hitter last year.  He doesn’t need to be platooned.  He makes $3.075MM this year and has two years of service time left before free agency.

If there’s one team that can afford to compromise a little outfield defense, it’s the Jays.  They’ve got two excellent athletes in Vernon Wells and Alex Rios.  The DH spot is blocked with Frank Thomas, leaving no spot for young Adam Lind.  Lind appears Major League ready – his PECOTA is .289/.349/.493 and he projects to be more valuable than Johnson in 2007.  Lind’s defense is lacking, but the Jays can stomach that.

So which teams could use Reed Johnson?   The Twins, Braves, Cardinals, and Marlins are possibilities.  I think he could be a decent center fielder for the Fish, but they’d hesitate to take on his salary.  The Braves seem content with their left field platoon, though I think Johnson would fit.  The Cards also have some outfield questions, though Ricciardi hasn’t traded with John Schuerholz or Walt Jocketty before.  The Dodgers had interest in Johnson in the past but the Brady Clark acquisition removes their need.

That leaves the Twins as my choice.  They’re relying on the health of Rondell White and/or Jason Kubel in left, and they may want to trade Torii Hunter midseason.  Alexi Casilla is ready to replace Luis Castillo as well, and Johnson could be used at leadoff while Casilla gets acclimated. 

In return, the Twins could send one of their young starters to the Jays.  Asking for Glen Perkins or Kevin Slowey seems like too much, but Scott Baker is buried on their starting pitching depth chart.  He seems to have fallen out of favor after a half-season of 6.37 ball last year.  While his home run tendencies are a poor fit for Rogers Centre, Baker did have a promising 3.9 K/BB last year.  He’s 25 years old and seems like an appropriate bounty for Johnson.  Thoughts?

J.P. Ricciardi Trade Profile

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Tonight I decided to take a look at the trading habits of Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi, who was hired in November of 2001.

Ricciardi made an array of trades soon after his hiring: out were Billy Koch, Alex Gonzalez, Paul Quantrill, Cesar Izturis, and Brad Fullmer.  His only notable returns from those five were Eric Hinske and Felix Heredia.  The Koch for Hinske deal was fairly even, as both players performed well in 2002.  I’d consider the Heredia acquisition a mild win.  Ricciardi lost in the Izturis/Quantrill deal, in that highly regarded young pitcher Luke Prokopec broke down.  He also lost the Fullmer trade, as Fullmer helped the Angels win the World Series while the pitcher Ricciardi received was a bust.  [edit: Just got an email outlining the circumstances surrounding the Fullmer trade, and it sounds like Ricciardi won.  The salary dump cleared the way for Vernon Wells, and interest in Fullmer was minimal.]

Ricciardi wasn’t too active at the trading deadline in ’02, shipping Raul Mondesi off to the Yankees.  The return was a young reliever who did not pan out.  He made a decent move in the winter of ’02 to get Cory Lidle for a couple of prospects, though Lidle was pretty lousy for the Jays.  Ricciardi traded away shortstop Felipe Lopez a month later, a regrettable move.

At the trading deadline of ’03, Ricciardi sent Shannon Stewart to the Twins for Bobby Kielty.  I wonder if he could’ve gotten more for Stewart, but the trade was redeemed when he snagged Ted Lilly from the A’s for Kielty.  In the winter of ’03 he stole Justin Speier from the Rockies for Mark Hendrickson and a PTBNL as part of a three-way deal.  That fleecing of Dan O’Dowd stands as one of Ricciardi’s best trades.  A few months later Ricciardi picked up Jason Frasor for Jayson Werth, a pretty solid move.

Getting Frank Menechino from the A’s for junk was a nice move in May of ’04.  Ricciardi made small acquisitions until January of ’05, when he snagged Shea Hillenbrand for a prospect.  Say what you will about Hillenbrand, but the prospect sent to Arizona was a complete bust.  Of course, Joe Garagiola was manning the club at the time, so it’s not a shock.

Ricciardi kept his John McDonald crush alive in the winter of ’05, re-acquiring him from Detroit.  That December he made two big deals: Lyle Overbay for Dave Bush and Gabe Gross, and Troy Glaus for Miguel Batista and Orlando Hudson.  I consider both to be losses for the Jays.  I think this team would be better right now with Bush and Hudson on it.

The jury’s still out on various dump trades Ricciardi made last summer involving Hillenbrand, Scott Schoeneweis, and Eric Hinske.

Judging Ricciardi solely on trades, I think his record is close to .500.  Some good, some bad.  He loves dealing with old pal Billy Beane, making 8 of his 34 trades with him.  Other GMs with whom he’s made more than one trade: Mark Shapiro, Theo Epstein, Doug Melvin, and Dan O’Dowd.

I haven’t looked closely yet but I think once you evaluate Ricciardi’s other GM decisions in tandem with his trades, he’ll come out looking quite bad.  He’s let some good players go for little to nothing in Chris Carpenter, Felipe Lopez, Brandon Lyon, and Trever Miller. There are some pretty bad signings on his record too, and the Jays’ farm system is among the worst in the game.  Nonetheless, his contract runs through 2010.

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